What EXP is

Total expected points added by the offense: every offensive play valued by how much it changed the team's chance of scoring, summed over the season. The situation-aware summary of the whole offense — passing and rushing together.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2025 the Bills led at 9.66; the league average was 1.21.

League snapshot — 2025

League leader

BUF · 9.66

League average

1.21

Best to worst

22.44

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	9.66	17
2	DAL	8.70	17
3	NE	8.63	17
4	LAR	8.15	17
5	GB	7.17	17
6	SF	7.13	17
7	IND	6.73	17
8	DET	5.64	17
9	JAX	4.66	17
10	CHI	4.51	17
11	SEA	3.63	17
12	BAL	3.42	17
13	KC	3.12	17
14	PIT	2.84	17
15	CIN	2.67	17
16	DEN	2.44	17
17	NYG	2.21	17
18	WAS	1.90	17
19	PHI	0.94	17
20	MIA	0.53	17
21	TB	-0.16	17
22	HOU	-0.28	17
23	LAC	-1.12	17
24	CAR	-1.37	17
25	ATL	-1.38	17
26	ARI	-1.74	17
27	NYJ	-4.23	17
28	MIN	-5.32	17
29	NO	-7.90	17
30	TEN	-8.40	17
31	LV	-11.42	17
32	CLE	-12.78	17

At a glance — 2025

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 9.66

League laggard

CLE · -12.78

League average

1.21

Spread (max − min)

22.44

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	9.66	8.45	100%
2	DAL	8.70	7.50	96.8%
3	NE	8.63	7.43	93.5%
4	LAR	8.15	6.94	90.3%
5	GB	7.17	5.97	87.1%
6	SF	7.13	5.92	83.9%
7	IND	6.73	5.53	80.6%
8	DET	5.64	4.43	77.4%
9	JAX	4.66	3.45	74.2%
10	CHI	4.51	3.30	71%
11	SEA	3.63	2.42	67.7%
12	BAL	3.42	2.22	64.5%
13	KC	3.12	1.91	61.3%
14	PIT	2.84	1.64	58.1%
15	CIN	2.67	1.47	54.8%
16	DEN	2.44	1.24	51.6%
17	NYG	2.21	1.01	48.4%
18	WAS	1.90	0.69	45.2%
19	PHI	0.94	-0.26	41.9%
20	MIA	0.53	-0.68	38.7%
21	TB	-0.16	-1.36	35.5%
22	HOU	-0.28	-1.49	32.3%
23	LAC	-1.12	-2.33	29%
24	CAR	-1.37	-2.57	25.8%
25	ATL	-1.38	-2.58	22.6%
26	ARI	-1.74	-2.94	19.4%
27	NYJ	-4.23	-5.44	16.1%
28	MIN	-5.32	-6.53	12.9%
29	NO	-7.90	-9.10	9.7%
30	TEN	-8.40	-9.60	6.5%
31	LV	-11.42	-12.63	3.2%
32	CLE	-12.78	-13.99	0%

Does EXP matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 890–688–37 ATS (56.4%) across 2020–2025, #31 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2025 (141–128, 52.4%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	145–109–2	57.1%
2021	272	154–116–2	57.0%
2022	271	152–112–7	57.6%
2023	272	141–117–14	54.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

EXP in 2025 vs 2024

Bills lead at 9.66 — they ranked #3 last year. Browns are last at -12.78 — #32 last year.

The league average is 1.21, up 0.23 from 0.98 last year.

Biggest riser: Patriots, #28 → #3. Biggest faller: Cardinals, #9 → #26.

Spread between first and last: 22.44; 21 teams are within 5.68 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2025 vs 2024

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NE · +13.82

Biggest faller

TB · −8.65

Most consistent

CLE · +0.23

League trend 2025 vs 2024

▲ 0.23

Rank	Team	2025	2024	Δ
1	NE	8.63	-5.19	+13.82
2	DAL	8.70	-3.90	+12.60
3	IND	6.73	-2.90	+9.63
4	NYG	2.21	-6.86	+9.08
5	CHI	4.51	-4.26	+8.77
6	LAR	8.15	1.39	+6.76
7	SF	7.13	1.87	+5.26
8	SEA	3.63	-0.79	+4.42
9	JAX	4.66	0.51	+4.15
10	PIT	2.84	0.54	+2.31
11	CAR	-1.37	-3.10	+1.74
12	MIA	0.53	-1.21	+1.74
13	GB	7.17	5.77	+1.41
14	HOU	-0.28	-1.01	+0.73
15	DEN	2.44	2.10	+0.35
16	CLE	-12.78	-13.01	+0.23
17	TEN	-8.40	-7.26	−1.14
18	KC	3.12	4.35	−1.23
19	BUF	9.66	10.91	−1.25
20	ATL	-1.38	0.95	−2.32
21	LV	-11.42	-8.75	−2.67
22	NO	-7.90	-4.04	−3.85
23	NYJ	-4.23	-0.34	−3.89
24	LAC	-1.12	3.14	−4.26
25	CIN	2.67	7.47	−4.80
26	PHI	0.94	6.74	−5.79
27	DET	5.64	11.62	−5.98
28	ARI	-1.74	5.03	−6.77
29	MIN	-5.32	1.87	−7.19
30	WAS	1.90	9.82	−7.93
31	BAL	3.42	11.44	−8.02
32	TB	-0.16	8.50	−8.65

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.02

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -6.60

Biggest improver

DET · +2.55/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.69/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.02	+0.94	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
2	KC	6.98	−0.83	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
3	SF	5.26	+1.61	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
4	BAL	5.20	+0.68	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
5	GB	4.64	−1.27	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
6	DET	4.37	+2.55	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
7	DAL	3.77	+1.47	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
8	CIN	2.67	+1.15	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
9	SEA	2.07	−0.62	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
10	PHI	1.54	+0.13	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
11	TB	1.39	−1.30	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
12	LAR	0.48	+0.95	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
13	IND	0.05	+0.55	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
14	JAX	0.04	+2.23	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
15	MIA	-0.75	−0.66	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
16	ARI	-0.92	−0.24	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
17	PIT	-1.16	+0.58	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
18	WAS	-1.29	+1.13	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
19	NE	-1.39	+0.62	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
20	MIN	-1.68	−1.06	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
21	CHI	-1.93	+1.26	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
22	ATL	-2.07	−0.14	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
23	DEN	-2.20	+0.55	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
24	HOU	-2.64	+0.53	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
25	LAC	-2.66	−1.57	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
26	TEN	-2.84	−2.69	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
27	CAR	-3.24	+1.09	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
28	LV	-3.27	−1.45	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
29	NO	-3.94	−1.21	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
30	NYG	-4.01	+1.07	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
31	CLE	-5.07	−1.96	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
32	NYJ	-6.60	+1.15	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
DAL	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
NE	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
LAR	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
GB	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
SF	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
IND	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
DET	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
JAX	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
CHI	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
SEA	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
BAL	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
KC	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
PIT	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
CIN	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
DEN	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
NYG	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
WAS	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
PHI	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
MIA	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
TB	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
HOU	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
LAC	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
CAR	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
ATL	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
ARI	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
NYJ	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95
MIN	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
NO	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
TEN	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
LV	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
CLE	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71

EXP since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (15.34), 2019 Ravens (12.49), 2020 Packers (12.18), 2021 Chiefs (9.56), 2022 Chiefs (10.06), 2023 49ers (9.54), 2024 Lions (11.62), 2025 Bills (9.66).

Chiefs have led this stat 3 of 8 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 15.34; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -16.05.

The league average has risen from -0.74 in 2018 to 1.21 in 2025.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2025.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_stats_exp_pts_tot
Side: offensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.