What EXP is

Total expected points added by the offense: every offensive play valued by how much it changed the team's chance of scoring, summed over the season. The situation-aware summary of the whole offense — passing and rushing together.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2019 the Ravens led at 12.49; the league average was -1.57.

League snapshot — 2019

League leader

BAL · 12.49

League average

-1.57

Best to worst

23.18

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BAL	12.49	16
2	KC	7.74	16
3	DAL	4.89	16
4	NO	4.11	16
5	SF	2.84	16
6	HOU	2.21	16
7	GB	1.79	16
8	TEN	1.64	16
9	MIN	1.58	16
10	LAC	0.30	16
11	PHI	-0.23	16
12	SEA	-0.32	16
13	ATL	-0.78	16
14	LV	-0.85	16
15	LAR	-0.96	16
16	NE	-1.12	16
17	ARI	-1.82	16
18	IND	-2.21	16
19	TB	-2.55	16
20	BUF	-3.32	16
21	CLE	-3.39	16
22	DET	-3.42	16
23	JAX	-3.86	16
24	DEN	-4.00	16
25	CIN	-5.86	16
26	NYG	-5.89	16
27	MIA	-6.09	16
28	CHI	-6.61	16
29	CAR	-7.38	16
30	WAS	-8.17	16
31	PIT	-10.41	16
32	NYJ	-10.69	16

At a glance — 2019

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BAL · 12.49

League laggard

NYJ · -10.69

League average

-1.57

Spread (max − min)

23.18

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BAL	12.49	14.06	100%
2	KC	7.74	9.32	96.8%
3	DAL	4.89	6.46	93.5%
4	NO	4.11	5.68	90.3%
5	SF	2.84	4.41	87.1%
6	HOU	2.21	3.79	83.9%
7	GB	1.79	3.36	80.6%
8	TEN	1.64	3.22	77.4%
9	MIN	1.58	3.15	74.2%
10	LAC	0.30	1.88	71%
11	PHI	-0.23	1.34	67.7%
12	SEA	-0.32	1.25	64.5%
13	ATL	-0.78	0.79	61.3%
14	LV	-0.85	0.72	58.1%
15	LAR	-0.96	0.61	54.8%
16	NE	-1.12	0.45	51.6%
17	ARI	-1.82	-0.24	48.4%
18	IND	-2.21	-0.64	45.2%
19	TB	-2.55	-0.98	41.9%
20	BUF	-3.32	-1.74	38.7%
21	CLE	-3.39	-1.82	35.5%
22	DET	-3.42	-1.85	32.3%
23	JAX	-3.86	-2.29	29%
24	DEN	-4.00	-2.42	25.8%
25	CIN	-5.86	-4.28	22.6%
26	NYG	-5.89	-4.31	19.4%
27	MIA	-6.09	-4.52	16.1%
28	CHI	-6.61	-5.03	12.9%
29	CAR	-7.38	-5.81	9.7%
30	WAS	-8.17	-6.59	6.5%
31	PIT	-10.41	-8.84	3.2%
32	NYJ	-10.69	-9.12	0%

Does EXP matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 890–688–37 ATS (56.4%) across 2020–2025, #31 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2025 (141–128, 52.4%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	145–109–2	57.1%
2021	272	154–116–2	57.0%
2022	271	152–112–7	57.6%
2023	272	141–117–14	54.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	141–128–3	52.4%

EXP in 2019 vs 2018

Ravens lead at 12.49 — they ranked #14 last year. Jets are last at -10.69 — #29 last year.

The league average is -1.57, down 0.83 from -0.74 last year.

Biggest riser: Vikings, #28 → #9. Biggest faller: Steelers, #8 → #31.

Spread between first and last: 23.18; 23 teams are within 4.92 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2019 vs 2018

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

ARI · +14.23

Biggest faller

PIT · −13.90

Most consistent

DEN · −0.43

League trend 2019 vs 2018

▼ -0.83

Rank	Team	2019	2018	Δ
1	ARI	-1.82	-16.05	+14.23
2	BAL	12.49	0.96	+11.53
3	BUF	-3.32	-13.28	+9.96
4	MIN	1.58	-7.55	+9.12
5	DAL	4.89	-1.92	+6.80
6	SF	2.84	-2.55	+5.39
7	JAX	-3.86	-9.18	+5.32
8	LV	-0.85	-5.70	+4.85
9	TEN	1.64	-1.75	+3.39
10	HOU	2.21	0.75	+1.46
11	MIA	-6.09	-7.43	+1.34
12	GB	1.79	0.75	+1.03
13	CLE	-3.39	-4.31	+0.91
14	DET	-3.42	-4.12	+0.69
15	DEN	-4.00	-3.57	−0.43
16	PHI	-0.23	1.79	−2.02
17	NYJ	-10.69	-8.32	−2.37
18	WAS	-8.17	-4.77	−3.40
19	TB	-2.55	1.26	−3.82
20	LAC	0.30	4.44	−4.14
21	SEA	-0.32	4.67	−4.99
22	CIN	-5.86	-0.69	−5.17
23	NE	-1.12	4.08	−5.20
24	IND	-2.21	3.09	−5.30
25	NO	4.11	9.44	−5.33
26	ATL	-0.78	4.57	−5.35
27	CHI	-6.61	-0.44	−6.17
28	NYG	-5.89	0.98	−6.86
29	KC	7.74	15.34	−7.60
30	LAR	-0.96	9.12	−10.08
31	CAR	-7.38	3.07	−10.45
32	PIT	-10.41	3.49	−13.90

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.02

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -6.60

Biggest improver

DET · +2.55/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.69/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.02	+0.94	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
2	KC	6.98	−0.83	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
3	SF	5.26	+1.61	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
4	BAL	5.20	+0.68	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
5	GB	4.64	−1.27	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
6	DET	4.37	+2.55	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
7	DAL	3.77	+1.47	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
8	CIN	2.67	+1.15	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
9	SEA	2.07	−0.62	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
10	PHI	1.54	+0.13	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
11	TB	1.39	−1.30	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
12	LAR	0.48	+0.95	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
13	IND	0.05	+0.55	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
14	JAX	0.04	+2.23	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
15	MIA	-0.75	−0.66	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
16	ARI	-0.92	−0.24	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
17	PIT	-1.16	+0.58	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
18	WAS	-1.29	+1.13	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
19	NE	-1.39	+0.62	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
20	MIN	-1.68	−1.06	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
21	CHI	-1.93	+1.26	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
22	ATL	-2.07	−0.14	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
23	DEN	-2.20	+0.55	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
24	HOU	-2.64	+0.53	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
25	LAC	-2.66	−1.57	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51
26	TEN	-2.84	−2.69	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
27	CAR	-3.24	+1.09	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
28	LV	-3.27	−1.45	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
29	NO	-3.94	−1.21	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
30	NYG	-4.01	+1.07	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
31	CLE	-5.07	−1.96	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
32	NYJ	-6.60	+1.15	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	10.71	4.46	7.40	5.14	10.91	9.66	14.86
DET	-0.65	-5.01	3.96	1.56	11.62	5.64	13.47
SF	-0.88	3.72	3.14	9.54	1.87	7.13	12.33
DAL	-2.44	4.44	1.41	7.96	-3.90	8.70	10.22
KC	11.78	9.56	10.06	-0.24	4.35	3.12	10.20
BAL	7.59	0.47	0.89	4.09	11.44	3.42	8.49
JAX	-5.41	-7.41	2.37	-2.50	0.51	4.66	8.03
CIN	-3.16	2.53	3.46	-0.43	7.47	2.67	6.10
CAR	1.10	-10.77	-2.69	-10.98	-3.10	-1.37	5.10
IND	4.17	3.20	-11.71	-3.15	-2.90	6.73	3.99
CHI	-1.38	-7.00	-3.36	-5.00	-4.26	4.51	3.01
NE	0.72	3.52	-5.64	-14.75	-5.19	8.63	2.96
NYG	-3.87	-10.08	1.99	-12.28	-6.86	2.21	0.85
SEA	7.28	1.23	1.28	1.25	-0.79	3.63	0.58
LV	4.02	-1.02	-0.09	-5.92	-8.75	-11.42	0.29
PIT	0.75	-5.08	-1.44	-5.93	0.54	2.84	0.23
HOU	3.87	-9.07	-10.24	-1.61	-1.01	-0.28	-0.11
LAR	-4.00	4.08	-5.84	-0.13	1.39	8.15	-0.27
GB	12.18	7.19	-0.42	2.36	5.77	7.17	-1.76
WAS	-4.07	-3.26	-4.68	-6.93	9.82	1.90	-1.81
ARI	1.49	2.43	-7.84	-3.55	5.03	-1.74	-2.30
ATL	2.20	-6.17	-0.17	-7.24	0.95	-1.38	-2.71
CLE	4.18	-1.92	-0.43	-8.81	-13.01	-12.78	-2.71
NYJ	-10.31	-5.87	-7.27	-15.22	-0.34	-4.23	-2.95
PHI	-5.63	3.22	4.79	4.31	6.74	0.94	-3.59
DEN	-5.74	0.83	-6.81	-3.59	2.10	2.44	-4.63
MIN	2.55	-0.43	-1.35	-3.91	1.87	-5.32	-5.16
TB	6.80	6.42	-4.89	-1.55	8.50	-0.16	-5.40
NO	5.26	-7.11	-4.36	-3.81	-4.04	-7.90	-5.63
TEN	10.98	0.14	-5.12	-2.47	-7.26	-8.40	-7.75
MIA	1.09	-5.01	1.50	5.71	-1.21	0.53	-7.85
LAC	-2.40	3.60	-1.60	-4.71	3.14	-1.12	-15.51

EXP since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (15.34), 2019 Ravens (12.49).

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 15.34; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -16.05.

The league average has fallen from -0.74 in 2018 to -1.57 in 2019.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2019.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_stats_exp_pts_tot
Side: offensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.