What Fourth down pct (Off − Def) is

Fourth-down conversion rate minus the rate opponents converted against this defense. Small samples on both halves.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Jaguars led at 19.59; the league average was -0.43.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

JAX · 19.59

League average

-0.43

Best to worst

42.09

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	JAX	19.59	17
2	KC	17.86	17
3	SEA	17.86	17
4	LAC	13.57	17
5	CAR	12.70	17
6	PIT	11.43	17
7	ATL	11.11	17
8	CLE	10.32	17
9	MIN	9.44	17
10	LAR	8.95	17
11	PHI	8.75	17
12	MIA	5.78	17
13	SF	1.18	17
14	NE	0.00	17
15	WAS	0.00	17
16	LV	-0.83	17
17	DET	-1.50	17
18	DAL	-1.91	17
19	NYJ	-3.02	17
20	BUF	-3.73	16
21	TB	-4.76	17
22	NO	-5.74	17
23	IND	-5.85	17
24	ARI	-6.10	17
25	CHI	-6.67	17
26	CIN	-14.13	16
27	DEN	-14.29	17
28	HOU	-15.00	17
29	NYG	-17.09	17
30	GB	-19.19	17
31	TEN	-20.14	17
32	BAL	-22.50	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

JAX · 19.59

League laggard

BAL · -22.50

League average

-0.43

Spread (max − min)

42.09

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	JAX	19.59	20.03	100%
2	KC	17.86	18.29	96.8%
3	SEA	17.86	18.29	93.5%
4	LAC	13.57	14.01	90.3%
5	CAR	12.70	13.13	87.1%
6	PIT	11.43	11.86	83.9%
7	ATL	11.11	11.55	80.6%
8	CLE	10.32	10.75	77.4%
9	MIN	9.44	9.87	74.2%
10	LAR	8.95	9.38	71%
11	PHI	8.75	9.18	67.7%
12	MIA	5.78	6.21	64.5%
13	SF	1.18	1.61	61.3%
14	NE	0.00	0.43	58.1%
15	WAS	0.00	0.43	54.8%
16	LV	-0.83	-0.40	51.6%
17	DET	-1.50	-1.07	48.4%
18	DAL	-1.91	-1.48	45.2%
19	NYJ	-3.02	-2.59	41.9%
20	BUF	-3.73	-3.29	38.7%
21	TB	-4.76	-4.33	35.5%
22	NO	-5.74	-5.31	32.3%
23	IND	-5.85	-5.41	29%
24	ARI	-6.10	-5.66	25.8%
25	CHI	-6.67	-6.23	22.6%
26	CIN	-14.13	-13.70	19.4%
27	DEN	-14.29	-13.85	16.1%
28	HOU	-15.00	-14.57	12.9%
29	NYG	-17.09	-16.65	9.7%
30	GB	-19.19	-18.75	6.5%
31	TEN	-20.14	-19.70	3.2%
32	BAL	-22.50	-22.07	0%

Does Fourth down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 840–738–37 ATS (53.2%) across 2020–2025, #127 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (144–110, 56.7%); its worst 2022 (129–135, 48.9%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	144–110–2	56.7%
2021	272	148–122–2	54.8%
2022	271	129–135–7	48.9%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) in 2022 vs 2021

Jaguars lead at 19.59 — they ranked #25 last year. Ravens are last at -22.50 — #10 last year.

The league average is -0.43, down 0.39 from -0.04 last year.

Biggest riser: Panthers, #30 → #5. Biggest faller: Packers, #4 → #30.

Spread between first and last: 42.09; 19 teams are within 11.73 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

CLE · +32.94

Biggest faller

CIN · −40.24

Most consistent

HOU · +0.04

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▼ -0.39

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	CLE	10.32	-22.62	+32.94
2	CAR	12.70	-15.97	+28.66
3	JAX	19.59	-8.60	+28.20
4	SEA	17.86	-5.57	+23.43
5	ATL	11.11	-8.33	+19.44
6	PIT	11.43	-6.55	+17.98
7	PHI	8.75	-7.72	+16.47
8	KC	17.86	5.38	+12.48
9	DET	-1.50	-13.07	+11.56
10	NYJ	-3.02	-13.63	+10.61
11	LAR	8.95	-0.49	+9.44
12	LV	-0.83	-9.26	+8.42
13	MIA	5.78	-2.02	+7.80
14	WAS	0.00	-7.14	+7.14
15	MIN	9.44	4.55	+4.89
16	CHI	-6.67	-8.33	+1.67
17	NYG	-17.09	-18.55	+1.46
18	DAL	-1.91	-3.21	+1.29
19	HOU	-15.00	-15.04	+0.04
20	SF	1.18	6.00	−4.82
21	BUF	-3.73	2.94	−6.67
22	IND	-5.85	4.93	−10.77
23	NE	0.00	12.50	−12.50
24	TB	-4.76	9.82	−14.58
25	NO	-5.74	9.52	−15.27
26	ARI	-6.10	11.95	−18.05
27	LAC	13.57	32.89	−19.32
28	TEN	-20.14	4.17	−24.30
29	BAL	-22.50	5.56	−28.06
30	DEN	-14.29	14.84	−29.12
31	GB	-19.19	13.64	−32.82
32	CIN	-14.13	26.11	−40.24

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 16.43

Multi-year laggard

TEN · -21.01

Biggest improver

CLE · +10.96/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −10.68/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	16.43	+6.96	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	26.98
2	LAR	10.86	+3.73	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	29.17
3	CIN	10.32	+3.69	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	55.00
4	NE	8.82	+5.38	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	27.50
5	MIN	7.19	+7.12	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	60.00
6	IND	7.00	+1.26	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	22.73
7	BUF	5.34	−2.75	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-13.89
8	DAL	3.89	+3.71	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	50.00
9	NO	3.46	−4.73	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	—
10	DEN	2.79	+3.48	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	9.52
11	CHI	2.68	+3.14	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	13.33
12	WAS	1.60	−3.28	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-17.86
13	BAL	1.54	−3.49	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-25.00
14	NYG	1.18	+7.69	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	75.00
15	GB	1.05	+0.67	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	15.56
16	CLE	0.84	+10.96	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	37.50
17	ARI	0.53	+0.65	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	21.43
18	PHI	-0.06	−3.23	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-44.44
19	JAX	-0.57	+7.00	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	12.50
20	ATL	-0.77	−3.77	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-21.21
21	TB	-2.66	−4.66	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-38.10
22	MIA	-3.79	−9.51	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-38.10
23	PIT	-3.83	−6.71	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.43
24	DET	-3.99	+0.96	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-14.77
25	NYJ	-4.34	+2.10	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	37.50
26	LAC	-4.47	−6.14	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-55.00
27	SF	-4.60	+1.39	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	-5.56
28	CAR	-6.35	+0.34	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	-6.94
29	SEA	-6.65	−8.32	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-66.67
30	LV	-7.79	−1.14	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	0.00
31	HOU	-8.38	−0.52	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-21.43
32	TEN	-21.01	−10.68	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-66.67

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
JAX	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	12.50
KC	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	26.98
SEA	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-66.67
LAC	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-55.00
CAR	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	-6.94
PIT	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.43
ATL	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-21.21
CLE	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	37.50
MIN	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	60.00
LAR	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	29.17
PHI	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-44.44
MIA	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-38.10
SF	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	-5.56
NE	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	27.50
WAS	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-17.86
LV	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	0.00
DET	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-14.77
DAL	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	50.00
NYJ	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	37.50
BUF	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-13.89
TB	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-38.10
NO	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	—
IND	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	22.73
ARI	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	21.43
CHI	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	13.33
CIN	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	55.00
DEN	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	9.52
HOU	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-21.43
NYG	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	75.00
GB	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	15.56
TEN	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-66.67
BAL	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-25.00

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Saints (32.97), 2019 Cardinals (43.57), 2020 Dolphins (33.85), 2021 Chargers (32.89), 2022 Jaguars (19.59).

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 43.57; the worst Browns 2020 at -48.15.

The league average has fallen from 1.39 in 2018 to -0.43 in 2022.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_fourth_down_pct
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.