What Fourth down pct (Off − Def) is

Fourth-down conversion rate minus the rate opponents converted against this defense. Small samples on both halves.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Ravens led at 20.91; the league average was 0.21.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

BAL · 20.91

League average

0.21

Best to worst

43.00

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BAL	20.91	17
2	TB	18.67	17
3	PHI	17.19	17
4	DEN	16.52	17
5	CLE	16.25	17
6	NYJ	14.87	17
7	LAR	8.57	17
8	DAL	7.74	17
9	LV	7.02	17
10	KC	6.20	17
11	NO	5.06	17
12	CHI	4.55	17
13	BUF	3.62	17
14	GB	3.33	17
15	PIT	2.92	17
16	SF	1.99	17
17	CIN	0.70	17
18	MIA	-0.83	17
19	TEN	-2.14	17
20	NYG	-3.98	17
21	DET	-5.19	17
22	ATL	-5.72	17
23	ARI	-5.88	17
24	JAX	-6.39	17
25	WAS	-6.73	17
26	MIN	-11.29	17
27	LAC	-12.50	17
28	SEA	-14.50	17
29	IND	-15.38	17
30	HOU	-17.08	17
31	NE	-19.56	17
32	CAR	-22.08	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BAL · 20.91

League laggard

CAR · -22.08

League average

0.21

Spread (max − min)

43.00

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BAL	20.91	20.70	100%
2	TB	18.67	18.45	96.8%
3	PHI	17.19	16.98	93.5%
4	DEN	16.52	16.30	90.3%
5	CLE	16.25	16.04	87.1%
6	NYJ	14.87	14.66	83.9%
7	LAR	8.57	8.36	80.6%
8	DAL	7.74	7.53	77.4%
9	LV	7.02	6.81	74.2%
10	KC	6.20	5.99	71%
11	NO	5.06	4.85	67.7%
12	CHI	4.55	4.33	64.5%
13	BUF	3.62	3.40	61.3%
14	GB	3.33	3.12	58.1%
15	PIT	2.92	2.71	54.8%
16	SF	1.99	1.78	51.6%
17	CIN	0.70	0.49	48.4%
18	MIA	-0.83	-1.05	45.2%
19	TEN	-2.14	-2.36	41.9%
20	NYG	-3.98	-4.20	38.7%
21	DET	-5.19	-5.41	35.5%
22	ATL	-5.72	-5.94	32.3%
23	ARI	-5.88	-6.10	29%
24	JAX	-6.39	-6.61	25.8%
25	WAS	-6.73	-6.95	22.6%
26	MIN	-11.29	-11.50	19.4%
27	LAC	-12.50	-12.71	16.1%
28	SEA	-14.50	-14.71	12.9%
29	IND	-15.38	-15.60	9.7%
30	HOU	-17.08	-17.29	6.5%
31	NE	-19.56	-19.77	3.2%
32	CAR	-22.08	-22.30	0%

Does Fourth down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 840–738–37 ATS (53.2%) across 2020–2025, #127 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (144–110, 56.7%); its worst 2022 (129–135, 48.9%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	144–110–2	56.7%
2021	272	148–122–2	54.8%
2022	271	129–135–7	48.9%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) in 2023 vs 2022

Ravens lead at 20.91 — they ranked #32 last year. Panthers are last at -22.08 — #5 last year.

The league average is 0.21, up 0.65 from -0.43 last year.

Biggest riser: Ravens, #32 → #1. Biggest faller: Panthers, #5 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 43.00; 20 teams are within 11.51 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

BAL · +43.41

Biggest faller

CAR · −34.78

Most consistent

ARI · +0.22

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▲ 0.65

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	BAL	20.91	-22.50	+43.41
2	DEN	16.52	-14.29	+30.80
3	TB	18.67	-4.76	+23.43
4	GB	3.33	-19.19	+22.52
5	TEN	-2.14	-20.14	+17.99
6	NYJ	14.87	-3.02	+17.89
7	CIN	0.70	-14.13	+14.83
8	NYG	-3.98	-17.09	+13.10
9	CHI	4.55	-6.67	+11.21
10	NO	5.06	-5.74	+10.80
11	DAL	7.74	-1.91	+9.65
12	PHI	17.19	8.75	+8.44
13	LV	7.02	-0.83	+7.86
14	BUF	3.62	-3.73	+7.35
15	CLE	16.25	10.32	+5.93
16	SF	1.99	1.18	+0.82
17	ARI	-5.88	-6.10	+0.22
18	LAR	8.57	8.95	−0.38
19	HOU	-17.08	-15.00	−2.08
20	DET	-5.19	-1.50	−3.69
21	MIA	-0.83	5.78	−6.61
22	WAS	-6.73	0.00	−6.73
23	PIT	2.92	11.43	−8.50
24	IND	-15.38	-5.85	−9.54
25	KC	6.20	17.86	−11.65
26	ATL	-5.72	11.11	−16.83
27	NE	-19.56	0.00	−19.56
28	MIN	-11.29	9.44	−20.72
29	JAX	-6.39	19.59	−25.99
30	LAC	-12.50	13.57	−26.07
31	SEA	-14.50	17.86	−32.36
32	CAR	-22.08	12.70	−34.78

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 16.43

Multi-year laggard

TEN · -21.01

Biggest improver

CLE · +10.96/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −10.68/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	16.43	+6.96	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	26.98
2	LAR	10.86	+3.73	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	29.17
3	CIN	10.32	+3.69	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	55.00
4	NE	8.82	+5.38	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	27.50
5	MIN	7.19	+7.12	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	60.00
6	IND	7.00	+1.26	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	22.73
7	BUF	5.34	−2.75	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-13.89
8	DAL	3.89	+3.71	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	50.00
9	NO	3.46	−4.73	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	—
10	DEN	2.79	+3.48	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	9.52
11	CHI	2.68	+3.14	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	13.33
12	WAS	1.60	−3.28	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-17.86
13	BAL	1.54	−3.49	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-25.00
14	NYG	1.18	+7.69	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	75.00
15	GB	1.05	+0.67	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	15.56
16	CLE	0.84	+10.96	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	37.50
17	ARI	0.53	+0.65	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	21.43
18	PHI	-0.06	−3.23	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-44.44
19	JAX	-0.57	+7.00	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	12.50
20	ATL	-0.77	−3.77	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-21.21
21	TB	-2.66	−4.66	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-38.10
22	MIA	-3.79	−9.51	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-38.10
23	PIT	-3.83	−6.71	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.43
24	DET	-3.99	+0.96	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-14.77
25	NYJ	-4.34	+2.10	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	37.50
26	LAC	-4.47	−6.14	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-55.00
27	SF	-4.60	+1.39	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	-5.56
28	CAR	-6.35	+0.34	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	-6.94
29	SEA	-6.65	−8.32	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-66.67
30	LV	-7.79	−1.14	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	0.00
31	HOU	-8.38	−0.52	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-21.43
32	TEN	-21.01	−10.68	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-66.67

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BAL	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-25.00
TB	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-38.10
PHI	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-44.44
DEN	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	9.52
CLE	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	37.50
NYJ	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	37.50
LAR	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	29.17
DAL	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	50.00
LV	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	0.00
KC	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	26.98
NO	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	—
CHI	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	13.33
BUF	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-13.89
GB	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	15.56
PIT	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.43
SF	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	-5.56
CIN	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	55.00
MIA	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-38.10
TEN	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-66.67
NYG	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	75.00
DET	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-14.77
ATL	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-21.21
ARI	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	21.43
JAX	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	12.50
WAS	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-17.86
MIN	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	60.00
LAC	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-55.00
SEA	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-66.67
IND	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	22.73
HOU	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-21.43
NE	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	27.50
CAR	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	-6.94

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Saints (32.97), 2019 Cardinals (43.57), 2020 Dolphins (33.85), 2021 Chargers (32.89), 2022 Jaguars (19.59), 2023 Ravens (20.91).

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 43.57; the worst Browns 2020 at -48.15.

The league average has fallen from 1.39 in 2018 to 0.21 in 2023.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_fourth_down_pct
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.