What Fourth down pct (Off − Def) is

Fourth-down conversion rate minus the rate opponents converted against this defense. Small samples on both halves.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2025 the Chiefs led at 48.91; the league average was 0.25.

League snapshot — 2025

League leader

KC · 48.91

League average

0.25

Best to worst

78.20

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	48.91	17
2	NE	38.67	17
3	JAX	23.14	17
4	PHI	17.07	17
5	IND	13.10	17
6	LAR	11.90	17
7	HOU	10.28	17
8	LAC	8.00	17
9	BUF	6.74	17
10	SEA	6.06	17
11	CAR	5.59	17
12	SF	4.55	17
13	BAL	3.90	17
14	CHI	3.90	17
15	CIN	3.33	17
16	CLE	2.49	17
17	GB	0.44	17
18	DAL	-0.29	17
19	WAS	-0.96	17
20	TB	-1.84	17
21	DEN	-1.85	17
22	ARI	-5.14	17
23	MIN	-7.07	17
24	DET	-7.56	17
25	ATL	-9.38	17
26	NO	-11.76	17
27	PIT	-21.51	17
28	MIA	-23.60	17
29	LV	-24.38	17
30	NYG	-26.57	17
31	NYJ	-28.82	17
32	TEN	-29.29	17

At a glance — 2025

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 48.91

League laggard

TEN · -29.29

League average

0.25

Spread (max − min)

78.20

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	48.91	48.66	100%
2	NE	38.67	38.42	96.8%
3	JAX	23.14	22.89	93.5%
4	PHI	17.07	16.82	90.3%
5	IND	13.10	12.84	87.1%
6	LAR	11.90	11.65	83.9%
7	HOU	10.28	10.02	80.6%
8	LAC	8.00	7.75	77.4%
9	BUF	6.74	6.49	74.2%
10	SEA	6.06	5.81	71%
11	CAR	5.59	5.34	67.7%
12	SF	4.55	4.29	64.5%
13	BAL	3.90	3.65	61.3%
14	CHI	3.90	3.65	58.1%
15	CIN	3.33	3.08	54.8%
16	CLE	2.49	2.24	51.6%
17	GB	0.44	0.19	48.4%
18	DAL	-0.29	-0.55	45.2%
19	WAS	-0.96	-1.21	41.9%
20	TB	-1.84	-2.09	38.7%
21	DEN	-1.85	-2.10	35.5%
22	ARI	-5.14	-5.39	32.3%
23	MIN	-7.07	-7.32	29%
24	DET	-7.56	-7.81	25.8%
25	ATL	-9.38	-9.63	22.6%
26	NO	-11.76	-12.02	19.4%
27	PIT	-21.51	-21.76	16.1%
28	MIA	-23.60	-23.85	12.9%
29	LV	-24.38	-24.63	9.7%
30	NYG	-26.57	-26.82	6.5%
31	NYJ	-28.82	-29.08	3.2%
32	TEN	-29.29	-29.54	0%

Does Fourth down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 840–738–37 ATS (53.2%) across 2020–2025, #127 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (144–110, 56.7%); its worst 2022 (129–135, 48.9%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	144–110–2	56.7%
2021	272	148–122–2	54.8%
2022	271	129–135–7	48.9%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) in 2025 vs 2024

Chiefs lead at 48.91 — they ranked #4 last year. Titans are last at -29.29 — #32 last year.

The league average is 0.25, up 1.15 from -0.89 last year.

Biggest riser: Jaguars, #22 → #3. Biggest faller: Lions, #1 → #24.

Spread between first and last: 78.20; 23 teams are within 17.46 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2025 vs 2024

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NE · +32.71

Biggest faller

DET · −32.85

Most consistent

TB · −0.61

League trend 2025 vs 2024

▲ 1.15

Rank	Team	2025	2024	Δ
1	NE	38.67	5.95	+32.71
2	DAL	-0.29	-32.29	+31.99
3	KC	48.91	18.41	+30.50
4	JAX	23.14	-4.49	+27.62
5	SF	4.55	-15.38	+19.93
6	CAR	5.59	-13.33	+18.93
7	HOU	10.28	-4.27	+14.55
8	GB	0.44	-10.00	+10.44
9	PHI	17.07	7.04	+10.03
10	CIN	3.33	-6.63	+9.96
11	ARI	-5.14	-13.89	+8.75
12	TEN	-29.29	-37.79	+8.51
13	PIT	-21.51	-29.29	+7.78
14	LAC	8.00	0.43	+7.57
15	NYJ	-28.82	-34.52	+5.70
16	IND	13.10	8.33	+4.76
17	SEA	6.06	2.63	+3.43
18	TB	-1.84	-1.23	−0.61
19	LAR	11.90	13.73	−1.82
20	LV	-24.38	-20.92	−3.45
21	BAL	3.90	10.48	−6.57
22	CLE	2.49	10.10	−7.61
23	CHI	3.90	13.16	−9.26
24	BUF	6.74	19.60	−12.86
25	NO	-11.76	3.70	−15.47
26	MIN	-7.07	9.01	−16.08
27	DEN	-1.85	18.10	−19.95
28	WAS	-0.96	20.29	−21.25
29	MIA	-23.60	-1.61	−21.99
30	ATL	-9.38	13.90	−23.27
31	NYG	-26.57	-3.09	−23.48
32	DET	-7.56	25.29	−32.85

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 16.43

Multi-year laggard

TEN · -21.01

Biggest improver

CLE · +10.96/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −10.68/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	16.43	+6.96	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	26.98
2	LAR	10.86	+3.73	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	29.17
3	CIN	10.32	+3.69	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	55.00
4	NE	8.82	+5.38	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	27.50
5	MIN	7.19	+7.12	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	60.00
6	IND	7.00	+1.26	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	22.73
7	BUF	5.34	−2.75	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-13.89
8	DAL	3.89	+3.71	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	50.00
9	NO	3.46	−4.73	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	—
10	DEN	2.79	+3.48	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	9.52
11	CHI	2.68	+3.14	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	13.33
12	WAS	1.60	−3.28	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-17.86
13	BAL	1.54	−3.49	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-25.00
14	NYG	1.18	+7.69	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	75.00
15	GB	1.05	+0.67	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	15.56
16	CLE	0.84	+10.96	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	37.50
17	ARI	0.53	+0.65	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	21.43
18	PHI	-0.06	−3.23	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-44.44
19	JAX	-0.57	+7.00	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	12.50
20	ATL	-0.77	−3.77	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-21.21
21	TB	-2.66	−4.66	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-38.10
22	MIA	-3.79	−9.51	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-38.10
23	PIT	-3.83	−6.71	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.43
24	DET	-3.99	+0.96	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-14.77
25	NYJ	-4.34	+2.10	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	37.50
26	LAC	-4.47	−6.14	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-55.00
27	SF	-4.60	+1.39	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	-5.56
28	CAR	-6.35	+0.34	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	-6.94
29	SEA	-6.65	−8.32	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-66.67
30	LV	-7.79	−1.14	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	0.00
31	HOU	-8.38	−0.52	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-21.43
32	TEN	-21.01	−10.68	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-66.67

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
KC	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	26.98
NE	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	27.50
JAX	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	12.50
PHI	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-44.44
IND	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	22.73
LAR	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	29.17
HOU	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-21.43
LAC	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-55.00
BUF	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-13.89
SEA	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-66.67
CAR	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	-6.94
SF	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	-5.56
BAL	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-25.00
CHI	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	13.33
CIN	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	55.00
CLE	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	37.50
GB	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	15.56
DAL	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	50.00
WAS	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-17.86
TB	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-38.10
DEN	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	9.52
ARI	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	21.43
MIN	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	60.00
DET	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-14.77
ATL	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-21.21
NO	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	—
PIT	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.43
MIA	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-38.10
LV	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	0.00
NYG	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	75.00
NYJ	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	37.50
TEN	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-66.67

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Saints (32.97), 2019 Cardinals (43.57), 2020 Dolphins (33.85), 2021 Chargers (32.89), 2022 Jaguars (19.59), 2023 Ravens (20.91), 2024 Lions (25.29), 2025 Chiefs (48.91).

The best season on record is Chiefs 2025 at 48.91; the worst Browns 2020 at -48.15.

The league average has fallen from 1.39 in 2018 to 0.25 in 2025.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2025.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_fourth_down_pct
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.