What Fourth down pct (Off − Def) is

Fourth-down conversion rate minus the rate opponents converted against this defense. Small samples on both halves.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2024 the Lions led at 25.29; the league average was -0.89.

League snapshot — 2024

League leader

DET · 25.29

League average

-0.89

Best to worst

63.08

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	DET	25.29	17
2	WAS	20.29	17
3	BUF	19.60	17
4	KC	18.41	17
5	DEN	18.10	17
6	ATL	13.90	17
7	LAR	13.73	17
8	CHI	13.16	17
9	BAL	10.48	17
10	CLE	10.10	17
11	MIN	9.01	17
12	IND	8.33	17
13	PHI	7.04	17
14	NE	5.95	17
15	NO	3.70	17
16	SEA	2.63	17
17	LAC	0.43	17
18	TB	-1.23	17
19	MIA	-1.61	17
20	NYG	-3.09	17
21	HOU	-4.27	17
22	JAX	-4.49	17
23	CIN	-6.63	17
24	GB	-10.00	17
25	CAR	-13.33	17
26	ARI	-13.89	17
27	SF	-15.38	17
28	LV	-20.92	17
29	PIT	-29.29	17
30	DAL	-32.29	17
31	NYJ	-34.52	17
32	TEN	-37.79	17

At a glance — 2024

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DET · 25.29

League laggard

TEN · -37.79

League average

-0.89

Spread (max − min)

63.08

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DET	25.29	26.18	100%
2	WAS	20.29	21.18	96.8%
3	BUF	19.60	20.50	93.5%
4	KC	18.41	19.31	90.3%
5	DEN	18.10	18.99	87.1%
6	ATL	13.90	14.79	83.9%
7	LAR	13.73	14.62	80.6%
8	CHI	13.16	14.05	77.4%
9	BAL	10.48	11.37	74.2%
10	CLE	10.10	10.99	71%
11	MIN	9.01	9.90	67.7%
12	IND	8.33	9.23	64.5%
13	PHI	7.04	7.93	61.3%
14	NE	5.95	6.85	58.1%
15	NO	3.70	4.60	54.8%
16	SEA	2.63	3.53	51.6%
17	LAC	0.43	1.32	48.4%
18	TB	-1.23	-0.34	45.2%
19	MIA	-1.61	-0.72	41.9%
20	NYG	-3.09	-2.20	38.7%
21	HOU	-4.27	-3.38	35.5%
22	JAX	-4.49	-3.59	32.3%
23	CIN	-6.63	-5.73	29%
24	GB	-10.00	-9.11	25.8%
25	CAR	-13.33	-12.44	22.6%
26	ARI	-13.89	-13.00	19.4%
27	SF	-15.38	-14.49	16.1%
28	LV	-20.92	-20.03	12.9%
29	PIT	-29.29	-28.40	9.7%
30	DAL	-32.29	-31.39	6.5%
31	NYJ	-34.52	-33.63	3.2%
32	TEN	-37.79	-36.90	0%

Does Fourth down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 840–738–37 ATS (53.2%) across 2020–2025, #127 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (144–110, 56.7%); its worst 2022 (129–135, 48.9%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	144–110–2	56.7%
2021	272	148–122–2	54.8%
2022	271	129–135–7	48.9%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) in 2024 vs 2023

Lions lead at 25.29 — they ranked #21 last year. Titans are last at -37.79 — #19 last year.

The league average is -0.89, down 1.11 from 0.21 last year.

Biggest riser: Commanders, #25 → #2. Biggest faller: Jets, #6 → #31.

Spread between first and last: 63.08; 22 teams are within 16.64 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DET · +30.48

Biggest faller

NYJ · −49.39

Most consistent

MIA · −0.78

League trend 2024 vs 2023

▼ -1.11

Rank	Team	2024	2023	Δ
1	DET	25.29	-5.19	+30.48
2	WAS	20.29	-6.73	+27.02
3	NE	5.95	-19.56	+25.51
4	IND	8.33	-15.38	+23.72
5	MIN	9.01	-11.29	+20.30
6	ATL	13.90	-5.72	+19.62
7	SEA	2.63	-14.50	+17.13
8	BUF	19.60	3.62	+15.98
9	LAC	0.43	-12.50	+12.93
10	HOU	-4.27	-17.08	+12.80
11	KC	18.41	6.20	+12.21
12	CAR	-13.33	-22.08	+8.75
13	CHI	13.16	4.55	+8.61
14	LAR	13.73	8.57	+5.15
15	JAX	-4.49	-6.39	+1.90
16	DEN	18.10	16.52	+1.58
17	NYG	-3.09	-3.98	+0.89
18	MIA	-1.61	-0.83	−0.78
19	NO	3.70	5.06	−1.36
20	CLE	10.10	16.25	−6.15
21	CIN	-6.63	0.70	−7.33
22	ARI	-13.89	-5.88	−8.01
23	PHI	7.04	17.19	−10.16
24	BAL	10.48	20.91	−10.44
25	GB	-10.00	3.33	−13.33
26	SF	-15.38	1.99	−17.38
27	TB	-1.23	18.67	−19.90
28	LV	-20.92	7.02	−27.95
29	PIT	-29.29	2.92	−32.22
30	TEN	-37.79	-2.14	−35.65
31	DAL	-32.29	7.74	−40.03
32	NYJ	-34.52	14.87	−49.39

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 16.43

Multi-year laggard

TEN · -21.01

Biggest improver

CLE · +10.96/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −10.68/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	16.43	+6.96	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	26.98
2	LAR	10.86	+3.73	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	29.17
3	CIN	10.32	+3.69	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	55.00
4	NE	8.82	+5.38	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	27.50
5	MIN	7.19	+7.12	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	60.00
6	IND	7.00	+1.26	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	22.73
7	BUF	5.34	−2.75	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-13.89
8	DAL	3.89	+3.71	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	50.00
9	NO	3.46	−4.73	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	—
10	DEN	2.79	+3.48	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	9.52
11	CHI	2.68	+3.14	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	13.33
12	WAS	1.60	−3.28	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-17.86
13	BAL	1.54	−3.49	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-25.00
14	NYG	1.18	+7.69	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	75.00
15	GB	1.05	+0.67	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	15.56
16	CLE	0.84	+10.96	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	37.50
17	ARI	0.53	+0.65	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	21.43
18	PHI	-0.06	−3.23	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-44.44
19	JAX	-0.57	+7.00	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	12.50
20	ATL	-0.77	−3.77	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-21.21
21	TB	-2.66	−4.66	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-38.10
22	MIA	-3.79	−9.51	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-38.10
23	PIT	-3.83	−6.71	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.43
24	DET	-3.99	+0.96	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-14.77
25	NYJ	-4.34	+2.10	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	37.50
26	LAC	-4.47	−6.14	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-55.00
27	SF	-4.60	+1.39	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	-5.56
28	CAR	-6.35	+0.34	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	-6.94
29	SEA	-6.65	−8.32	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-66.67
30	LV	-7.79	−1.14	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	0.00
31	HOU	-8.38	−0.52	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-21.43
32	TEN	-21.01	−10.68	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-66.67

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DET	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-14.77
WAS	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-17.86
BUF	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-13.89
KC	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	26.98
DEN	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	9.52
ATL	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-21.21
LAR	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	29.17
CHI	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	13.33
BAL	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-25.00
CLE	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	37.50
MIN	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	60.00
IND	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	22.73
PHI	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-44.44
NE	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	27.50
NO	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	—
SEA	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-66.67
LAC	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-55.00
TB	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-38.10
MIA	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-38.10
NYG	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	75.00
HOU	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-21.43
JAX	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	12.50
CIN	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	55.00
GB	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	15.56
CAR	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	-6.94
ARI	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	21.43
SF	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	-5.56
LV	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	0.00
PIT	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.43
DAL	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	50.00
NYJ	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	37.50
TEN	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-66.67

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Saints (32.97), 2019 Cardinals (43.57), 2020 Dolphins (33.85), 2021 Chargers (32.89), 2022 Jaguars (19.59), 2023 Ravens (20.91), 2024 Lions (25.29).

The best season on record is Cardinals 2019 at 43.57; the worst Browns 2020 at -48.15.

The league average has fallen from 1.39 in 2018 to -0.89 in 2024.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_fourth_down_pct
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.