NET: Fourth down pct (Off − Def)
P + N
About this stat ↓What Fourth down pct (Off − Def) is
Fourth-down conversion rate minus the rate opponents converted against this defense. Small samples on both halves.
Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.
In 2018 the Saints led at 32.97; the league average was 1.39.
League snapshot — 2018
League leader
NO · 32.97
League average
1.39
Best to worst
57.27
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 32.97 | 16 |
| 2 | LAC | 32.50 | 16 |
| 3 | SEA | 32.42 | 16 |
| 4 | JAX | 22.06 | 16 |
| 5 | TB | 19.23 | 16 |
| 6 | MIA | 18.68 | 16 |
| 7 | WAS | 17.09 | 16 |
| 8 | DAL | 14.29 | 16 |
| 9 | KC | 13.33 | 16 |
| 10 | NE | 12.50 | 16 |
| 11 | PIT | 10.44 | 16 |
| 12 | BAL | 9.09 | 16 |
| 13 | HOU | 6.67 | 16 |
| 14 | DET | 4.86 | 16 |
| 15 | IND | 3.33 | 16 |
| 16 | TEN | 3.33 | 16 |
| 17 | PHI | 2.97 | 16 |
| 18 | CHI | 2.86 | 16 |
| 19 | DEN | 0.00 | 16 |
| 20 | SF | -3.27 | 16 |
| 21 | MIN | -4.51 | 16 |
| 22 | CAR | -11.46 | 16 |
| 23 | CIN | -11.76 | 16 |
| 24 | NYJ | -11.90 | 16 |
| 25 | GB | -16.67 | 16 |
| 26 | BUF | -18.82 | 16 |
| 27 | LAR | -20.00 | 16 |
| 28 | CLE | -22.14 | 16 |
| 29 | NYG | -22.35 | 16 |
| 30 | LV | -22.92 | 16 |
| 31 | ARI | -24.04 | 16 |
| 32 | ATL | -24.29 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
League leader
NO · 32.97
League laggard
ATL · -24.29
League average
1.39
Spread (max − min)
57.27
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 32.97 | 31.58 | 100% |
| 2 | LAC | 32.50 | 31.11 | 96.8% |
| 3 | SEA | 32.42 | 31.03 | 93.5% |
| 4 | JAX | 22.06 | 20.67 | 90.3% |
| 5 | TB | 19.23 | 17.84 | 87.1% |
| 6 | MIA | 18.68 | 17.29 | 83.9% |
| 7 | WAS | 17.09 | 15.70 | 80.6% |
| 8 | DAL | 14.29 | 12.90 | 77.4% |
| 9 | KC | 13.33 | 11.94 | 74.2% |
| 10 | NE | 12.50 | 11.11 | 71% |
| 11 | PIT | 10.44 | 9.05 | 67.7% |
| 12 | BAL | 9.09 | 7.70 | 64.5% |
| 13 | HOU | 6.67 | 5.28 | 61.3% |
| 14 | DET | 4.86 | 3.47 | 58.1% |
| 15 | IND | 3.33 | 1.94 | 54.8% |
| 16 | TEN | 3.33 | 1.94 | 51.6% |
| 17 | PHI | 2.97 | 1.58 | 48.4% |
| 18 | CHI | 2.86 | 1.47 | 45.2% |
| 19 | DEN | 0.00 | -1.39 | 41.9% |
| 20 | SF | -3.27 | -4.66 | 38.7% |
| 21 | MIN | -4.51 | -5.90 | 35.5% |
| 22 | CAR | -11.46 | -12.85 | 32.3% |
| 23 | CIN | -11.76 | -13.16 | 29% |
| 24 | NYJ | -11.90 | -13.30 | 25.8% |
| 25 | GB | -16.67 | -18.06 | 22.6% |
| 26 | BUF | -18.82 | -20.21 | 19.4% |
| 27 | LAR | -20.00 | -21.39 | 16.1% |
| 28 | CLE | -22.14 | -23.53 | 12.9% |
| 29 | NYG | -22.35 | -23.74 | 9.7% |
| 30 | LV | -22.92 | -24.31 | 6.5% |
| 31 | ARI | -24.04 | -25.43 | 3.2% |
| 32 | ATL | -24.29 | -25.68 | 0% |
Does Fourth down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 840–738–37 ATS (53.2%) across 2020–2025, #127 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (144–110, 56.7%); its worst 2022 (129–135, 48.9%).
For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 144–110–2 | 56.7% |
| 2021 | 272 | 148–122–2 | 54.8% |
| 2022 | 271 | 129–135–7 | 48.9% |
| 2023 | 272 | 135–123–14 | 52.3% |
| 2024 | 272 | 137–126–9 | 52.1% |
| 2025 | 272 | 147–122–3 | 54.6% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year leader
KC · 13.29
Multi-year laggard
TEN · -14.70
Biggest improver
CLE · +7.78/yr
Biggest decliner
MIA · −9.26/yr
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 13.29 | +4.60 | -8.75 | 5.38 | 17.86 | 6.20 | 18.41 | 48.91 | 5.00 |
| 2 | LAR | 9.72 | +2.88 | 4.20 | -0.49 | 8.95 | 8.57 | 13.73 | 11.90 | 21.21 |
| 3 | NE | 7.95 | +4.73 | -3.31 | 12.50 | 0.00 | -19.56 | 5.95 | 38.67 | 21.37 |
| 4 | CIN | 7.86 | +1.85 | 7.87 | 26.11 | -14.13 | 0.70 | -6.63 | 3.33 | 37.78 |
| 5 | NO | 7.25 | −0.11 | 20.00 | 9.52 | -5.74 | 5.06 | 3.70 | -11.76 | 30.00 |
| 6 | BUF | 7.01 | −1.50 | 22.11 | 2.94 | -3.73 | 3.62 | 19.60 | 6.74 | -2.22 |
| 7 | CHI | 6.00 | +5.63 | -1.19 | -8.33 | -6.67 | 4.55 | 13.16 | 3.90 | 36.60 |
| 8 | DEN | 5.64 | +5.62 | -23.33 | 14.84 | -14.29 | 16.52 | 18.10 | -1.85 | 29.49 |
| 9 | IND | 5.01 | −0.23 | 21.14 | 4.93 | -5.85 | -15.38 | 8.33 | 13.10 | 8.82 |
| 10 | GB | 2.34 | +1.63 | 3.57 | 13.64 | -19.19 | 3.33 | -10.00 | 0.44 | 24.56 |
| 11 | MIN | 1.65 | +2.96 | -14.31 | 4.55 | 9.44 | -11.29 | 9.01 | -7.07 | 21.21 |
| 12 | PHI | 0.84 | −2.55 | 1.68 | -7.72 | 8.75 | 17.19 | 7.04 | 17.07 | -38.10 |
| 13 | WAS | 0.58 | −4.04 | 23.61 | -7.14 | 0.00 | -6.73 | 20.29 | -0.96 | -25.00 |
| 14 | TB | 0.40 | −2.36 | -1.19 | 9.82 | -4.76 | 18.67 | -1.23 | -1.84 | -16.67 |
| 15 | ARI | 0.14 | +0.36 | 1.33 | 11.95 | -6.10 | -5.88 | -13.89 | -5.14 | 18.68 |
| 16 | SF | -0.24 | +4.66 | -25.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 | 1.99 | -15.38 | 4.55 | 25.00 |
| 17 | BAL | -0.50 | −5.02 | 17.44 | 5.56 | -22.50 | 20.91 | 10.48 | 3.90 | -39.29 |
| 18 | JAX | -0.93 | +6.74 | -39.74 | -8.60 | 19.59 | -6.39 | -4.49 | 23.14 | 10.00 |
| 19 | ATL | -1.55 | −4.36 | 14.21 | -8.33 | 11.11 | -5.72 | 13.90 | -9.38 | -26.67 |
| 20 | DAL | -1.81 | −0.57 | 7.22 | -3.21 | -1.91 | 7.74 | -32.29 | -0.29 | 10.10 |
| 21 | SEA | -2.84 | −5.46 | 13.66 | -5.57 | 17.86 | -14.50 | 2.63 | 6.06 | -40.00 |
| 22 | LAC | -3.24 | −5.22 | -18.67 | 32.89 | 13.57 | -12.50 | 0.43 | 8.00 | -46.43 |
| 23 | CLE | -3.40 | +7.78 | -48.15 | -22.62 | 10.32 | 16.25 | 10.10 | 2.49 | 7.79 |
| 24 | MIA | -3.45 | −9.26 | 33.85 | -2.02 | 5.78 | -0.83 | -1.61 | -23.60 | -35.71 |
| 25 | PIT | -3.84 | −6.72 | 27.63 | -6.55 | 11.43 | 2.92 | -29.29 | -21.51 | -11.54 |
| 26 | DET | -4.08 | +0.89 | -11.11 | -13.07 | -1.50 | -5.19 | 25.29 | -7.56 | -15.38 |
| 27 | CAR | -4.84 | +1.48 | -4.44 | -15.97 | 12.70 | -22.08 | -13.33 | 5.59 | 3.64 |
| 28 | NYG | -5.97 | +2.33 | 2.53 | -18.55 | -17.09 | -3.98 | -3.09 | -26.57 | 25.00 |
| 29 | NYJ | -7.32 | −0.13 | -2.78 | -13.63 | -3.02 | 14.87 | -34.52 | -28.82 | 16.67 |
| 30 | HOU | -7.90 | −0.16 | 3.87 | -15.04 | -15.00 | -17.08 | -4.27 | 10.28 | -18.06 |
| 31 | LV | -9.83 | −2.67 | -6.16 | -9.26 | -0.83 | 7.02 | -20.92 | -24.38 | -14.29 |
| 32 | TEN | -14.70 | −5.95 | 4.81 | 4.17 | -20.14 | -2.14 | -37.79 | -29.29 | -22.50 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 7.87 | 26.11 | -14.13 | 0.70 | -6.63 | 3.33 | 37.78 |
| CHI | -1.19 | -8.33 | -6.67 | 4.55 | 13.16 | 3.90 | 36.60 |
| NO | 20.00 | 9.52 | -5.74 | 5.06 | 3.70 | -11.76 | 30.00 |
| DEN | -23.33 | 14.84 | -14.29 | 16.52 | 18.10 | -1.85 | 29.49 |
| NYG | 2.53 | -18.55 | -17.09 | -3.98 | -3.09 | -26.57 | 25.00 |
| SF | -25.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 | 1.99 | -15.38 | 4.55 | 25.00 |
| GB | 3.57 | 13.64 | -19.19 | 3.33 | -10.00 | 0.44 | 24.56 |
| NE | -3.31 | 12.50 | 0.00 | -19.56 | 5.95 | 38.67 | 21.37 |
| LAR | 4.20 | -0.49 | 8.95 | 8.57 | 13.73 | 11.90 | 21.21 |
| MIN | -14.31 | 4.55 | 9.44 | -11.29 | 9.01 | -7.07 | 21.21 |
| ARI | 1.33 | 11.95 | -6.10 | -5.88 | -13.89 | -5.14 | 18.68 |
| NYJ | -2.78 | -13.63 | -3.02 | 14.87 | -34.52 | -28.82 | 16.67 |
| DAL | 7.22 | -3.21 | -1.91 | 7.74 | -32.29 | -0.29 | 10.10 |
| JAX | -39.74 | -8.60 | 19.59 | -6.39 | -4.49 | 23.14 | 10.00 |
| IND | 21.14 | 4.93 | -5.85 | -15.38 | 8.33 | 13.10 | 8.82 |
| CLE | -48.15 | -22.62 | 10.32 | 16.25 | 10.10 | 2.49 | 7.79 |
| KC | -8.75 | 5.38 | 17.86 | 6.20 | 18.41 | 48.91 | 5.00 |
| CAR | -4.44 | -15.97 | 12.70 | -22.08 | -13.33 | 5.59 | 3.64 |
| BUF | 22.11 | 2.94 | -3.73 | 3.62 | 19.60 | 6.74 | -2.22 |
| PIT | 27.63 | -6.55 | 11.43 | 2.92 | -29.29 | -21.51 | -11.54 |
| LV | -6.16 | -9.26 | -0.83 | 7.02 | -20.92 | -24.38 | -14.29 |
| DET | -11.11 | -13.07 | -1.50 | -5.19 | 25.29 | -7.56 | -15.38 |
| TB | -1.19 | 9.82 | -4.76 | 18.67 | -1.23 | -1.84 | -16.67 |
| HOU | 3.87 | -15.04 | -15.00 | -17.08 | -4.27 | 10.28 | -18.06 |
| TEN | 4.81 | 4.17 | -20.14 | -2.14 | -37.79 | -29.29 | -22.50 |
| WAS | 23.61 | -7.14 | 0.00 | -6.73 | 20.29 | -0.96 | -25.00 |
| ATL | 14.21 | -8.33 | 11.11 | -5.72 | 13.90 | -9.38 | -26.67 |
| MIA | 33.85 | -2.02 | 5.78 | -0.83 | -1.61 | -23.60 | -35.71 |
| PHI | 1.68 | -7.72 | 8.75 | 17.19 | 7.04 | 17.07 | -38.10 |
| BAL | 17.44 | 5.56 | -22.50 | 20.91 | 10.48 | 3.90 | -39.29 |
| SEA | 13.66 | -5.57 | 17.86 | -14.50 | 2.63 | 6.06 | -40.00 |
| LAC | -18.67 | 32.89 | 13.57 | -12.50 | 0.43 | 8.00 | -46.43 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- net_fourth_down_pct
- Side
- net
- Family
- NET (Off − Def)
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- rate
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.