What Fourth down pct (Off − Def) is

Fourth-down conversion rate minus the rate opponents converted against this defense. Small samples on both halves.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

Through Week 8 of 2026, the Bengals lead at 37.78; the league average is 0.03.

League snapshot — 2026

League leader

CIN · 37.78

League average

0.03

Best to worst

84.21

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	CIN	37.78	7
2	CHI	36.60	7
3	NO	30.00	7
4	DEN	29.49	8
5	NYG	25.00	7
6	SF	25.00	7
7	GB	24.56	8
8	NE	21.37	8
9	LAR	21.21	8
10	MIN	21.21	7
11	ARI	18.68	8
12	NYJ	16.67	8
13	DAL	10.10	8
14	JAX	10.00	7
15	IND	8.82	8
16	CLE	7.79	8
17	KC	5.00	7
18	CAR	3.64	7
19	BUF	-2.22	7
20	PIT	-11.54	8
21	LV	-14.29	8
22	DET	-15.38	7
23	TB	-16.67	8
24	HOU	-18.06	7
25	TEN	-22.50	8
26	WAS	-25.00	7
27	ATL	-26.67	8
28	MIA	-35.71	7
29	PHI	-38.10	8
30	BAL	-39.29	8
31	SEA	-40.00	7
32	LAC	-46.43	7

At a glance — 2026

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

CIN · 37.78

League laggard

LAC · -46.43

League average

0.03

Spread (max − min)

84.21

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CIN	37.78	37.74	100%
2	CHI	36.60	36.57	96.8%
3	NO	30.00	29.97	93.5%
4	DEN	29.49	29.45	90.3%
5	NYG	25.00	24.97	87.1%
6	SF	25.00	24.97	83.9%
7	GB	24.56	24.53	80.6%
8	NE	21.37	21.33	77.4%
9	LAR	21.21	21.18	74.2%
10	MIN	21.21	21.18	71%
11	ARI	18.68	18.65	67.7%
12	NYJ	16.67	16.63	64.5%
13	DAL	10.10	10.07	61.3%
14	JAX	10.00	9.97	58.1%
15	IND	8.82	8.79	54.8%
16	CLE	7.79	7.76	51.6%
17	KC	5.00	4.97	48.4%
18	CAR	3.64	3.60	45.2%
19	BUF	-2.22	-2.26	41.9%
20	PIT	-11.54	-11.57	38.7%
21	LV	-14.29	-14.32	35.5%
22	DET	-15.38	-15.42	32.3%
23	TB	-16.67	-16.70	29%
24	HOU	-18.06	-18.09	25.8%
25	TEN	-22.50	-22.53	22.6%
26	WAS	-25.00	-25.03	19.4%
27	ATL	-26.67	-26.70	16.1%
28	MIA	-35.71	-35.75	12.9%
29	PHI	-38.10	-38.13	9.7%
30	BAL	-39.29	-39.32	6.5%
31	SEA	-40.00	-40.03	3.2%
32	LAC	-46.43	-46.46	0%

Does Fourth down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 840–738–37 ATS (53.2%) across 2020–2025, #127 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (144–110, 56.7%); its worst 2022 (129–135, 48.9%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	144–110–2	56.7%
2021	272	148–122–2	54.8%
2022	271	129–135–7	48.9%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) in 2026 vs 2025

Bengals lead at 37.78 — they ranked #15 last year. Chargers are last at -46.43 — #8 last year.

The league average is 0.03, down 0.22 from 0.25 last year.

Biggest riser: Giants, #30 → #5. Biggest faller: Eagles, #4 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 84.21; 19 teams are within 24.88 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NYG · +51.57

Biggest faller

PHI · −55.16

Most consistent

CAR · −1.96

League trend 2026 vs 2025

▼ -0.22

Rank	Team	2026	2025	Δ
1	NYG	25.00	-26.57	+51.57
2	NYJ	16.67	-28.82	+45.49
3	NO	30.00	-11.76	+41.76
4	CIN	37.78	3.33	+34.44
5	CHI	36.60	3.90	+32.70
6	DEN	29.49	-1.85	+31.34
7	MIN	21.21	-7.07	+28.28
8	GB	24.56	0.44	+24.12
9	ARI	18.68	-5.14	+23.82
10	SF	25.00	4.55	+20.45
11	DAL	10.10	-0.29	+10.40
12	LV	-14.29	-24.38	+10.09
13	PIT	-11.54	-21.51	+9.97
14	LAR	21.21	11.90	+9.31
15	TEN	-22.50	-29.29	+6.79
16	CLE	7.79	2.49	+5.30
17	CAR	3.64	5.59	−1.96
18	IND	8.82	13.10	−4.27
19	DET	-15.38	-7.56	−7.82
20	BUF	-2.22	6.74	−8.97
21	MIA	-35.71	-23.60	−12.11
22	JAX	10.00	23.14	−13.14
23	TB	-16.67	-1.84	−14.83
24	ATL	-26.67	-9.38	−17.29
25	NE	21.37	38.67	−17.30
26	WAS	-25.00	-0.96	−24.04
27	HOU	-18.06	10.28	−28.33
28	BAL	-39.29	3.90	−43.19
29	KC	5.00	48.91	−43.91
30	SEA	-40.00	6.06	−46.06
31	LAC	-46.43	8.00	−54.43
32	PHI	-38.10	17.07	−55.16

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

KC · 13.29

Multi-year laggard

TEN · -14.70

Biggest improver

CLE · +7.78/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · −9.26/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	KC	13.29	+4.60	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	5.00
2	LAR	9.72	+2.88	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	21.21
3	NE	7.95	+4.73	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	21.37
4	CIN	7.86	+1.85	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	37.78
5	NO	7.25	−0.11	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	30.00
6	BUF	7.01	−1.50	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-2.22
7	CHI	6.00	+5.63	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	36.60
8	DEN	5.64	+5.62	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	29.49
9	IND	5.01	−0.23	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	8.82
10	GB	2.34	+1.63	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	24.56
11	MIN	1.65	+2.96	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	21.21
12	PHI	0.84	−2.55	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-38.10
13	WAS	0.58	−4.04	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-25.00
14	TB	0.40	−2.36	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-16.67
15	ARI	0.14	+0.36	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	18.68
16	SF	-0.24	+4.66	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	25.00
17	BAL	-0.50	−5.02	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-39.29
18	JAX	-0.93	+6.74	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	10.00
19	ATL	-1.55	−4.36	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-26.67
20	DAL	-1.81	−0.57	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	10.10
21	SEA	-2.84	−5.46	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-40.00
22	LAC	-3.24	−5.22	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-46.43
23	CLE	-3.40	+7.78	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	7.79
24	MIA	-3.45	−9.26	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-35.71
25	PIT	-3.84	−6.72	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.54
26	DET	-4.08	+0.89	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-15.38
27	CAR	-4.84	+1.48	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	3.64
28	NYG	-5.97	+2.33	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	25.00
29	NYJ	-7.32	−0.13	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	16.67
30	HOU	-7.90	−0.16	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-18.06
31	LV	-9.83	−2.67	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	-14.29
32	TEN	-14.70	−5.95	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-22.50

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CIN	7.87	26.11	-14.13	0.70	-6.63	3.33	37.78
CHI	-1.19	-8.33	-6.67	4.55	13.16	3.90	36.60
NO	20.00	9.52	-5.74	5.06	3.70	-11.76	30.00
DEN	-23.33	14.84	-14.29	16.52	18.10	-1.85	29.49
NYG	2.53	-18.55	-17.09	-3.98	-3.09	-26.57	25.00
SF	-25.00	6.00	1.18	1.99	-15.38	4.55	25.00
GB	3.57	13.64	-19.19	3.33	-10.00	0.44	24.56
NE	-3.31	12.50	0.00	-19.56	5.95	38.67	21.37
LAR	4.20	-0.49	8.95	8.57	13.73	11.90	21.21
MIN	-14.31	4.55	9.44	-11.29	9.01	-7.07	21.21
ARI	1.33	11.95	-6.10	-5.88	-13.89	-5.14	18.68
NYJ	-2.78	-13.63	-3.02	14.87	-34.52	-28.82	16.67
DAL	7.22	-3.21	-1.91	7.74	-32.29	-0.29	10.10
JAX	-39.74	-8.60	19.59	-6.39	-4.49	23.14	10.00
IND	21.14	4.93	-5.85	-15.38	8.33	13.10	8.82
CLE	-48.15	-22.62	10.32	16.25	10.10	2.49	7.79
KC	-8.75	5.38	17.86	6.20	18.41	48.91	5.00
CAR	-4.44	-15.97	12.70	-22.08	-13.33	5.59	3.64
BUF	22.11	2.94	-3.73	3.62	19.60	6.74	-2.22
PIT	27.63	-6.55	11.43	2.92	-29.29	-21.51	-11.54
LV	-6.16	-9.26	-0.83	7.02	-20.92	-24.38	-14.29
DET	-11.11	-13.07	-1.50	-5.19	25.29	-7.56	-15.38
TB	-1.19	9.82	-4.76	18.67	-1.23	-1.84	-16.67
HOU	3.87	-15.04	-15.00	-17.08	-4.27	10.28	-18.06
TEN	4.81	4.17	-20.14	-2.14	-37.79	-29.29	-22.50
WAS	23.61	-7.14	0.00	-6.73	20.29	-0.96	-25.00
ATL	14.21	-8.33	11.11	-5.72	13.90	-9.38	-26.67
MIA	33.85	-2.02	5.78	-0.83	-1.61	-23.60	-35.71
PHI	1.68	-7.72	8.75	17.19	7.04	17.07	-38.10
BAL	17.44	5.56	-22.50	20.91	10.48	3.90	-39.29
SEA	13.66	-5.57	17.86	-14.50	2.63	6.06	-40.00
LAC	-18.67	32.89	13.57	-12.50	0.43	8.00	-46.43

Fourth down pct (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Saints (32.97), 2019 Cardinals (43.57), 2020 Dolphins (33.85), 2021 Chargers (32.89), 2022 Jaguars (19.59), 2023 Ravens (20.91), 2024 Lions (25.29), 2025 Chiefs (48.91), 2026 Bengals (37.78).

The best season on record is Chiefs 2025 at 48.91; the worst Browns 2020 at -48.15.

The league average has fallen from 1.39 in 2018 to 0.03 in 2026.

Week to week — Week 6 to Week 7

Since Week 6: Packers up 7 (#12 → #5), Bears up 4 (#6 → #2), Broncos up 4 (#15 → #11); Cowboys down 7 (#8 → #15), Patriots down 7 (#3 → #10), Falcons down 5 (#27 → #32).

22 teams moved by two places or fewer.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_fourth_down_pct
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.