What Third down pct (allowed) is

Third-down conversion rate allowed: third downs opponents converted divided by third downs they faced against this defense, as a percentage. The share of third downs the defense failed to get off the field on.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Commanders led at 32.54; the league average was 40.11.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

WAS · 32.54

League average

40.11

Best to worst

17.22

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	WAS	32.54	17
2	DEN	34.25	17
3	TEN	34.38	17
4	NYG	35.47	17
5	BAL	35.75	17
6	BUF	37.50	16
7	IND	38.12	17
8	TB	38.14	17
9	GB	38.22	17
10	DAL	38.26	17
11	NYJ	38.43	17
12	MIN	38.89	17
13	LAC	39.20	17
14	PHI	39.55	17
15	KC	39.82	17
16	CIN	40.09	16
17	HOU	40.28	17
18	CLE	40.57	17
19	PIT	40.65	17
20	NE	40.76	17
21	LAR	40.78	17
22	SF	40.93	17
23	CAR	41.85	17
24	NO	41.88	17
25	MIA	42.17	17
26	LV	42.79	17
27	SEA	42.86	17
28	ARI	43.07	17
29	JAX	43.38	17
30	DET	46.53	17
31	ATL	46.54	17
32	CHI	49.75	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

WAS · 32.54

League laggard

CHI · 49.75

League average

40.11

Spread (max − min)

17.22

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	WAS	32.54	-7.57	100%
2	DEN	34.25	-5.86	96.8%
3	TEN	34.38	-5.73	93.5%
4	NYG	35.47	-4.64	90.3%
5	BAL	35.75	-4.36	87.1%
6	BUF	37.50	-2.61	83.9%
7	IND	38.12	-1.99	80.6%
8	TB	38.14	-1.97	77.4%
9	GB	38.22	-1.89	74.2%
10	DAL	38.26	-1.84	71%
11	NYJ	38.43	-1.68	67.7%
12	MIN	38.89	-1.22	64.5%
13	LAC	39.20	-0.91	61.3%
14	PHI	39.55	-0.56	58.1%
15	KC	39.82	-0.29	54.8%
16	CIN	40.09	-0.01	51.6%
17	HOU	40.28	0.17	48.4%
18	CLE	40.57	0.46	45.2%
19	PIT	40.65	0.55	41.9%
20	NE	40.76	0.65	38.7%
21	LAR	40.78	0.67	35.5%
22	SF	40.93	0.82	32.3%
23	CAR	41.85	1.74	29%
24	NO	41.88	1.78	25.8%
25	MIA	42.17	2.07	22.6%
26	LV	42.79	2.68	19.4%
27	SEA	42.86	2.75	16.1%
28	ARI	43.07	2.96	12.9%
29	JAX	43.38	3.27	9.7%
30	DET	46.53	6.43	6.5%
31	ATL	46.54	6.44	3.2%
32	CHI	49.75	9.65	0%

Does Third down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 803–775–37 ATS (50.9%) across 2020–2025, #225 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2023 (115–143, 44.6%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	143–127–2	53.0%
2022	271	130–134–7	49.2%
2023	272	115–143–14	44.6%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	137–132–3	50.9%

Third down pct (allowed) in 2022 vs 2021

Commanders lead at 32.54 — they ranked #30 last year. Bears are last at 49.75 — #17 last year.

The league average is 40.11, down 1.00 from 41.11 last year.

Biggest riser: Commanders, #30 → #1. Biggest faller: Cardinals, #10 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 17.22; 24 teams are within 3.60 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

CHI · +8.41

Biggest faller

WAS · −16.80

Most consistent

MIA · +0.32

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▼ -1.00

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	CHI	49.75	41.35	+8.41
2	BUF	37.50	31.46	+6.04
3	NO	41.88	37.39	+4.49
4	ARI	43.07	38.65	+4.42
5	DAL	38.26	34.39	+3.87
6	SEA	42.86	39.29	+3.57
7	PIT	40.65	37.23	+3.42
8	CAR	41.85	38.43	+3.42
9	NE	40.76	37.80	+2.96
10	MIN	38.89	36.45	+2.44
11	LV	42.79	40.79	+2.00
12	DET	46.53	45.54	+0.99
13	CLE	40.57	39.91	+0.66
14	BAL	35.75	35.15	+0.60
15	MIA	42.17	41.85	+0.32
16	JAX	43.38	43.84	−0.46
17	SF	40.93	41.55	−0.62
18	TB	38.14	38.94	−0.80
19	LAR	40.78	41.70	−0.93
20	KC	39.82	40.91	−1.09
21	CIN	40.09	42.47	−2.37
22	TEN	34.38	37.14	−2.77
23	ATL	46.54	49.53	−2.99
24	IND	38.12	41.35	−3.23
25	HOU	40.28	44.12	−3.84
26	GB	38.22	42.86	−4.64
27	PHI	39.55	44.19	−4.64
28	NYG	35.47	40.89	−5.42
29	NYJ	38.43	45.21	−6.78
30	LAC	39.20	50.23	−11.04
31	DEN	34.25	45.50	−11.25
32	WAS	32.54	49.33	−16.80

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 36.00

Multi-year laggard

CAR · 44.84

Biggest improver

LAC · −2.50/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · +2.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	36.00	−2.05	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
2	BAL	37.46	+1.08	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
3	PIT	38.29	−0.16	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
4	LAR	38.44	−0.48	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
5	TB	38.53	−0.65	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
6	CLE	38.57	−0.68	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
7	DEN	38.96	−0.18	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
8	LAC	39.73	−2.50	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26
9	NE	39.73	−0.17	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
10	BUF	39.74	+1.44	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
11	CHI	39.86	−1.76	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00
12	NYJ	39.91	−1.63	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
13	IND	39.96	−0.91	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
14	NO	40.10	+1.10	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
15	SEA	40.17	−2.11	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
16	HOU	40.23	−1.61	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
17	SF	40.79	+0.52	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
18	TEN	40.81	−0.83	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
19	PHI	41.00	−0.30	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
20	KC	41.06	+0.04	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
21	NYG	41.11	+0.27	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
22	MIA	41.14	+2.24	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36
23	GB	41.33	+0.69	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
24	WAS	41.37	+0.40	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
25	JAX	41.65	−1.08	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
26	DAL	42.49	+1.61	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
27	CIN	42.82	+0.45	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
28	ATL	42.86	−0.77	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
29	DET	42.86	−0.78	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
30	ARI	43.13	+0.88	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86
31	LV	43.71	−0.36	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
32	CAR	44.84	+0.11	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
WAS	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
DEN	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
TEN	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
NYG	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
BAL	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
BUF	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
IND	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
TB	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
GB	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
DAL	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
NYJ	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
MIN	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
LAC	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26
PHI	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
KC	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
CIN	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
HOU	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
CLE	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
PIT	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
NE	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
LAR	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
SF	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
CAR	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59
NO	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
MIA	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36
LV	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
SEA	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
ARI	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86
JAX	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
DET	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
ATL	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
CHI	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00

Third down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (30.21), 2019 Patriots (24.23), 2020 Dolphins (31.69), 2021 Bills (31.46), 2022 Commanders (32.54).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 24.23; the worst Titans 2020 at 52.36.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.