What Third down pct (allowed) is

Third-down conversion rate allowed: third downs opponents converted divided by third downs they faced against this defense, as a percentage. The share of third downs the defense failed to get off the field on.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Bills led at 31.46; the league average was 41.11.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

BUF · 31.46

League average

41.11

Best to worst

18.78

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	31.46	17
2	DAL	34.39	17
3	BAL	35.15	17
4	MIN	36.45	17
5	TEN	37.14	17
6	PIT	37.23	17
7	NO	37.39	17
8	NE	37.80	17
9	CAR	38.43	17
10	ARI	38.65	17
11	TB	38.94	17
12	SEA	39.29	17
13	CLE	39.91	17
14	LV	40.79	17
15	NYG	40.89	17
16	KC	40.91	17
17	CHI	41.35	17
18	IND	41.35	17
19	SF	41.55	17
20	LAR	41.70	17
21	MIA	41.85	17
22	CIN	42.47	17
23	GB	42.86	17
24	JAX	43.84	17
25	HOU	44.12	17
26	PHI	44.19	17
27	NYJ	45.21	17
28	DEN	45.50	17
29	DET	45.54	17
30	WAS	49.33	17
31	ATL	49.53	17
32	LAC	50.23	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 31.46

League laggard

LAC · 50.23

League average

41.11

Spread (max − min)

18.78

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	31.46	-9.65	100%
2	DAL	34.39	-6.72	96.8%
3	BAL	35.15	-5.96	93.5%
4	MIN	36.45	-4.66	90.3%
5	TEN	37.14	-3.96	87.1%
6	PIT	37.23	-3.88	83.9%
7	NO	37.39	-3.71	80.6%
8	NE	37.80	-3.31	77.4%
9	CAR	38.43	-2.68	74.2%
10	ARI	38.65	-2.46	71%
11	TB	38.94	-2.17	67.7%
12	SEA	39.29	-1.82	64.5%
13	CLE	39.91	-1.20	61.3%
14	LV	40.79	-0.32	58.1%
15	NYG	40.89	-0.22	54.8%
16	KC	40.91	-0.20	51.6%
17	CHI	41.35	0.24	48.4%
18	IND	41.35	0.24	45.2%
19	SF	41.55	0.45	41.9%
20	LAR	41.70	0.60	38.7%
21	MIA	41.85	0.74	35.5%
22	CIN	42.47	1.36	32.3%
23	GB	42.86	1.75	29%
24	JAX	43.84	2.73	25.8%
25	HOU	44.12	3.01	22.6%
26	PHI	44.19	3.08	19.4%
27	NYJ	45.21	4.10	16.1%
28	DEN	45.50	4.39	12.9%
29	DET	45.54	4.44	9.7%
30	WAS	49.33	8.23	6.5%
31	ATL	49.53	8.43	3.2%
32	LAC	50.23	9.13	0%

Does Third down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 803–775–37 ATS (50.9%) across 2020–2025, #225 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2023 (115–143, 44.6%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	143–127–2	53.0%
2022	271	130–134–7	49.2%
2023	272	115–143–14	44.6%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	137–132–3	50.9%

Third down pct (allowed) in 2021 vs 2020

Bills lead at 31.46 — they ranked #10 last year. Chargers are last at 50.23 — #21 last year.

The league average is 41.11, down 1.27 from 42.37 last year.

Biggest riser: Titans, #32 → #5. Biggest faller: Commanders, #8 → #30.

Spread between first and last: 18.78; 23 teams are within 4.27 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

WAS · +10.18

Biggest faller

TEN · −15.22

Most consistent

BAL · +0.41

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -1.27

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	WAS	49.33	39.15	+10.18
2	MIA	41.85	31.69	+10.16
3	ATL	49.53	41.97	+7.56
4	LAR	41.70	35.58	+6.13
5	LAC	50.23	44.55	+5.68
6	SF	41.55	36.55	+5.00
7	PHI	44.19	39.42	+4.76
8	DEN	45.50	41.01	+4.48
9	CHI	41.35	38.28	+3.07
10	GB	42.86	40.00	+2.86
11	BAL	35.15	34.74	+0.41
12	NYJ	45.21	45.73	−0.52
13	PIT	37.23	37.84	−0.61
14	KC	40.91	41.94	−1.03
15	CIN	42.47	43.54	−1.07
16	NO	37.39	38.54	−1.14
17	JAX	43.84	45.08	−1.24
18	TB	38.94	40.20	−1.26
19	ARI	38.65	40.10	−1.45
20	IND	41.35	43.07	−1.72
21	DET	45.54	48.68	−3.13
22	NE	37.80	41.53	−3.73
23	HOU	44.12	48.00	−3.88
24	MIN	36.45	40.66	−4.21
25	NYG	40.89	45.27	−4.38
26	CLE	39.91	44.78	−4.87
27	BUF	31.46	39.58	−8.13
28	SEA	39.29	47.75	−8.46
29	LV	40.79	49.50	−8.72
30	CAR	38.43	51.02	−12.59
31	DAL	34.39	47.85	−13.46
32	TEN	37.14	52.36	−15.22

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 36.00

Multi-year laggard

CAR · 44.84

Biggest improver

LAC · −2.50/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · +2.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	36.00	−2.05	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
2	BAL	37.46	+1.08	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
3	PIT	38.29	−0.16	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
4	LAR	38.44	−0.48	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
5	TB	38.53	−0.65	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
6	CLE	38.57	−0.68	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
7	DEN	38.96	−0.18	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
8	LAC	39.73	−2.50	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26
9	NE	39.73	−0.17	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
10	BUF	39.74	+1.44	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
11	CHI	39.86	−1.76	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00
12	NYJ	39.91	−1.63	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
13	IND	39.96	−0.91	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
14	NO	40.10	+1.10	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
15	SEA	40.17	−2.11	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
16	HOU	40.23	−1.61	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
17	SF	40.79	+0.52	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
18	TEN	40.81	−0.83	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
19	PHI	41.00	−0.30	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
20	KC	41.06	+0.04	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
21	NYG	41.11	+0.27	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
22	MIA	41.14	+2.24	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36
23	GB	41.33	+0.69	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
24	WAS	41.37	+0.40	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
25	JAX	41.65	−1.08	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
26	DAL	42.49	+1.61	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
27	CIN	42.82	+0.45	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
28	ATL	42.86	−0.77	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
29	DET	42.86	−0.78	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
30	ARI	43.13	+0.88	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86
31	LV	43.71	−0.36	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
32	CAR	44.84	+0.11	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
DAL	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
BAL	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
MIN	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
TEN	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
PIT	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
NO	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
NE	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
CAR	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59
ARI	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86
TB	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
SEA	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
CLE	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
LV	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
NYG	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
KC	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
CHI	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00
IND	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
SF	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
LAR	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
MIA	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36
CIN	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
GB	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
JAX	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
HOU	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
PHI	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
NYJ	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
DEN	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
DET	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
WAS	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
ATL	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
LAC	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26

Third down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (30.21), 2019 Patriots (24.23), 2020 Dolphins (31.69), 2021 Bills (31.46).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 24.23; the worst Titans 2020 at 52.36.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.