What Third down pct (allowed) is

Third-down conversion rate allowed: third downs opponents converted divided by third downs they faced against this defense, as a percentage. The share of third downs the defense failed to get off the field on.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Vikings led at 30.21; the league average was 39.81.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

MIN · 30.21

League average

39.81

Best to worst

20.02

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	MIN	30.21	16
2	BAL	33.96	16
3	NYJ	34.76	16
4	SEA	34.97	16
5	CHI	35.48	16
6	PHI	35.82	16
7	CLE	35.89	16
8	PIT	36.73	16
9	TEN	36.76	16
10	BUF	37.50	16
11	DET	37.63	16
12	JAX	38.21	16
13	ARI	38.42	16
14	LAR	38.50	16
15	GB	38.76	16
16	NE	39.09	16
17	DEN	39.52	16
18	LAC	39.80	16
19	CAR	40.11	16
20	HOU	40.44	16
21	SF	41.23	16
22	TB	41.24	16
23	IND	41.71	16
24	NO	41.71	16
25	KC	42.49	16
26	NYG	42.65	16
27	DAL	43.22	16
28	WAS	45.13	16
29	MIA	45.31	16
30	LV	47.47	16
31	ATL	48.97	16
32	CIN	50.23	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

MIN · 30.21

League laggard

CIN · 50.23

League average

39.81

Spread (max − min)

20.02

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	MIN	30.21	-9.60	100%
2	BAL	33.96	-5.85	96.8%
3	NYJ	34.76	-5.05	93.5%
4	SEA	34.97	-4.84	90.3%
5	CHI	35.48	-4.33	87.1%
6	PHI	35.82	-3.99	83.9%
7	CLE	35.89	-3.93	80.6%
8	PIT	36.73	-3.08	77.4%
9	TEN	36.76	-3.05	74.2%
10	BUF	37.50	-2.31	71%
11	DET	37.63	-2.18	67.7%
12	JAX	38.21	-1.60	64.5%
13	ARI	38.42	-1.39	61.3%
14	LAR	38.50	-1.31	58.1%
15	GB	38.76	-1.05	54.8%
16	NE	39.09	-0.72	51.6%
17	DEN	39.52	-0.29	48.4%
18	LAC	39.80	-0.01	45.2%
19	CAR	40.11	0.30	41.9%
20	HOU	40.44	0.63	38.7%
21	SF	41.23	1.42	35.5%
22	TB	41.24	1.43	32.3%
23	IND	41.71	1.90	29%
24	NO	41.71	1.90	25.8%
25	KC	42.49	2.68	22.6%
26	NYG	42.65	2.84	19.4%
27	DAL	43.22	3.41	16.1%
28	WAS	45.13	5.32	12.9%
29	MIA	45.31	5.50	9.7%
30	LV	47.47	7.66	6.5%
31	ATL	48.97	9.16	3.2%
32	CIN	50.23	10.42	0%

Does Third down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 803–775–37 ATS (50.9%) across 2020–2025, #225 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2023 (115–143, 44.6%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	143–127–2	53.0%
2022	271	130–134–7	49.2%
2023	272	115–143–14	44.6%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	137–132–3	50.9%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 36.00

Multi-year laggard

CAR · 44.84

Biggest improver

LAC · −2.50/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · +2.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	36.00	−2.05	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
2	BAL	37.46	+1.08	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
3	PIT	38.29	−0.16	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
4	LAR	38.44	−0.48	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
5	TB	38.53	−0.65	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
6	CLE	38.57	−0.68	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
7	DEN	38.96	−0.18	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
8	LAC	39.73	−2.50	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26
9	NE	39.73	−0.17	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
10	BUF	39.74	+1.44	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
11	CHI	39.86	−1.76	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00
12	NYJ	39.91	−1.63	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
13	IND	39.96	−0.91	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
14	NO	40.10	+1.10	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
15	SEA	40.17	−2.11	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
16	HOU	40.23	−1.61	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
17	SF	40.79	+0.52	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
18	TEN	40.81	−0.83	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
19	PHI	41.00	−0.30	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
20	KC	41.06	+0.04	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
21	NYG	41.11	+0.27	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
22	MIA	41.14	+2.24	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36
23	GB	41.33	+0.69	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
24	WAS	41.37	+0.40	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
25	JAX	41.65	−1.08	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
26	DAL	42.49	+1.61	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
27	CIN	42.82	+0.45	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
28	ATL	42.86	−0.77	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
29	DET	42.86	−0.78	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
30	ARI	43.13	+0.88	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86
31	LV	43.71	−0.36	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
32	CAR	44.84	+0.11	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
CHI	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00
IND	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
LAC	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26
SEA	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
TB	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
NYJ	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
PIT	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
LAR	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
JAX	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
NE	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
KC	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
HOU	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
TEN	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
PHI	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
SF	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
ATL	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
CLE	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
BAL	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
CAR	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59
LV	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
BUF	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
ARI	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86
WAS	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
DEN	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
CIN	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
NYG	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
GB	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
NO	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
DET	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
DAL	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
MIA	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.