What Third down pct (allowed) is

Third-down conversion rate allowed: third downs opponents converted divided by third downs they faced against this defense, as a percentage. The share of third downs the defense failed to get off the field on.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Browns led at 29.26; the league average was 39.51.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

CLE · 29.26

League average

39.51

Best to worst

18.06

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	CLE	29.26	17
2	DEN	34.00	17
3	ATL	34.98	17
4	NO	35.75	17
5	HOU	37.17	17
6	BAL	37.25	17
7	NE	37.34	17
8	JAX	37.50	17
9	NYJ	37.50	17
10	DET	37.62	17
11	IND	37.66	17
12	DAL	37.91	17
13	KC	38.01	17
14	NYG	38.32	17
15	LAR	38.94	17
16	TEN	38.96	17
17	BUF	38.97	17
18	PIT	39.66	17
19	MIA	39.72	17
20	LAC	40.52	17
21	CAR	41.04	17
22	SF	41.12	17
23	TB	41.15	17
24	GB	41.33	17
25	CIN	41.51	17
26	MIN	41.74	17
27	WAS	41.78	17
28	LV	42.48	17
29	CHI	44.59	17
30	SEA	46.32	17
31	PHI	47.01	17
32	ARI	47.32	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

CLE · 29.26

League laggard

ARI · 47.32

League average

39.51

Spread (max − min)

18.06

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CLE	29.26	-10.25	100%
2	DEN	34.00	-5.51	96.8%
3	ATL	34.98	-4.54	93.5%
4	NO	35.75	-3.77	90.3%
5	HOU	37.17	-2.34	87.1%
6	BAL	37.25	-2.27	83.9%
7	NE	37.34	-2.17	80.6%
8	JAX	37.50	-2.01	77.4%
9	NYJ	37.50	-2.01	74.2%
10	DET	37.62	-1.89	71%
11	IND	37.66	-1.86	67.7%
12	DAL	37.91	-1.60	64.5%
13	KC	38.01	-1.50	61.3%
14	NYG	38.32	-1.19	58.1%
15	LAR	38.94	-0.57	54.8%
16	TEN	38.96	-0.55	51.6%
17	BUF	38.97	-0.55	48.4%
18	PIT	39.66	0.14	45.2%
19	MIA	39.72	0.21	41.9%
20	LAC	40.52	1.00	38.7%
21	CAR	41.04	1.53	35.5%
22	SF	41.12	1.61	32.3%
23	TB	41.15	1.64	29%
24	GB	41.33	1.82	25.8%
25	CIN	41.51	2.00	22.6%
26	MIN	41.74	2.23	19.4%
27	WAS	41.78	2.27	16.1%
28	LV	42.48	2.97	12.9%
29	CHI	44.59	5.08	9.7%
30	SEA	46.32	6.81	6.5%
31	PHI	47.01	7.50	3.2%
32	ARI	47.32	7.80	0%

Does Third down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 803–775–37 ATS (50.9%) across 2020–2025, #225 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2023 (115–143, 44.6%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	143–127–2	53.0%
2022	271	130–134–7	49.2%
2023	272	115–143–14	44.6%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	137–132–3	50.9%

Third down pct (allowed) in 2023 vs 2022

Browns lead at 29.26 — they ranked #18 last year. Cardinals are last at 47.32 — #28 last year.

The league average is 39.51, down 0.59 from 40.11 last year.

Biggest riser: Falcons, #31 → #3. Biggest faller: Commanders, #1 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 18.06; 24 teams are within 3.67 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

WAS · +9.24

Biggest faller

ATL · −11.57

Most consistent

SF · +0.19

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▼ -0.59

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	WAS	41.78	32.54	+9.24
2	PHI	47.01	39.55	+7.46
3	TEN	38.96	34.38	+4.59
4	ARI	47.32	43.07	+4.25
5	SEA	46.32	42.86	+3.46
6	GB	41.33	38.22	+3.11
7	TB	41.15	38.14	+3.01
8	MIN	41.74	38.89	+2.85
9	NYG	38.32	35.47	+2.85
10	BAL	37.25	35.75	+1.50
11	BUF	38.97	37.50	+1.47
12	CIN	41.51	40.09	+1.42
13	LAC	40.52	39.20	+1.32
14	SF	41.12	40.93	+0.19
15	DEN	34.00	34.25	−0.25
16	LV	42.48	42.79	−0.31
17	DAL	37.91	38.26	−0.35
18	IND	37.66	38.12	−0.46
19	CAR	41.04	41.85	−0.81
20	NYJ	37.50	38.43	−0.93
21	PIT	39.66	40.65	−1.00
22	KC	38.01	39.82	−1.81
23	LAR	38.94	40.78	−1.84
24	MIA	39.72	42.17	−2.45
25	HOU	37.17	40.28	−3.11
26	NE	37.34	40.76	−3.42
27	CHI	44.59	49.75	−5.16
28	JAX	37.50	43.38	−5.88
29	NO	35.75	41.88	−6.13
30	DET	37.62	46.53	−8.91
31	CLE	29.26	40.57	−11.31
32	ATL	34.98	46.54	−11.57

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 36.00

Multi-year laggard

CAR · 44.84

Biggest improver

LAC · −2.50/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · +2.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	36.00	−2.05	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
2	BAL	37.46	+1.08	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
3	PIT	38.29	−0.16	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
4	LAR	38.44	−0.48	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
5	TB	38.53	−0.65	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
6	CLE	38.57	−0.68	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
7	DEN	38.96	−0.18	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
8	LAC	39.73	−2.50	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26
9	NE	39.73	−0.17	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
10	BUF	39.74	+1.44	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
11	CHI	39.86	−1.76	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00
12	NYJ	39.91	−1.63	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
13	IND	39.96	−0.91	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
14	NO	40.10	+1.10	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
15	SEA	40.17	−2.11	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
16	HOU	40.23	−1.61	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
17	SF	40.79	+0.52	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
18	TEN	40.81	−0.83	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
19	PHI	41.00	−0.30	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
20	KC	41.06	+0.04	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
21	NYG	41.11	+0.27	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
22	MIA	41.14	+2.24	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36
23	GB	41.33	+0.69	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
24	WAS	41.37	+0.40	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
25	JAX	41.65	−1.08	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
26	DAL	42.49	+1.61	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
27	CIN	42.82	+0.45	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
28	ATL	42.86	−0.77	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
29	DET	42.86	−0.78	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
30	ARI	43.13	+0.88	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86
31	LV	43.71	−0.36	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
32	CAR	44.84	+0.11	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CLE	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
DEN	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
ATL	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
NO	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
HOU	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
BAL	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
NE	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
JAX	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
NYJ	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
DET	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
IND	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
DAL	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
KC	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
NYG	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
LAR	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
TEN	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
BUF	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
PIT	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
MIA	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36
LAC	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26
CAR	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59
SF	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
TB	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
GB	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
CIN	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
MIN	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
WAS	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
LV	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
CHI	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00
SEA	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
PHI	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
ARI	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86

Third down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (30.21), 2019 Patriots (24.23), 2020 Dolphins (31.69), 2021 Bills (31.46), 2022 Commanders (32.54), 2023 Browns (29.26).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 24.23; the worst Titans 2020 at 52.36.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.