What Fourth down success (allowed) is

Fourth downs opponents converted against this defense. The count behind the rate.

Lower is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Bears led at 0.35; the league average was 0.69.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

CHI · 0.35

League average

0.69

Best to worst

0.83

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	CHI	0.35	17
2	LAC	0.35	17
3	ATL	0.41	17
4	ARI	0.47	17
5	CAR	0.47	17
6	CLE	0.47	17
7	NO	0.47	17
8	DEN	0.53	17
9	CIN	0.56	16
10	JAX	0.59	17
11	NE	0.59	17
12	SF	0.59	17
13	GB	0.65	17
14	LV	0.65	17
15	MIN	0.65	17
16	NYG	0.65	17
17	NYJ	0.65	17
18	SEA	0.65	17
19	DAL	0.71	17
20	WAS	0.71	17
21	HOU	0.76	17
22	IND	0.76	17
23	PIT	0.76	17
24	LAR	0.82	17
25	TB	0.82	17
26	BAL	0.88	17
27	DET	0.88	17
28	MIA	0.88	17
29	PHI	0.88	17
30	TEN	1.12	17
31	KC	1.18	17
32	BUF	1.19	16

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAC · 0.35

League laggard

BUF · 1.19

League average

0.69

Spread (max − min)

0.83

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CHI	0.35	-0.34	100%
2	LAC	0.35	-0.34	96.8%
3	ATL	0.41	-0.28	93.5%
4	ARI	0.47	-0.22	90.3%
5	CAR	0.47	-0.22	87.1%
6	CLE	0.47	-0.22	83.9%
7	NO	0.47	-0.22	80.6%
8	DEN	0.53	-0.16	77.4%
9	CIN	0.56	-0.13	74.2%
10	JAX	0.59	-0.10	71%
11	NE	0.59	-0.10	67.7%
12	SF	0.59	-0.10	64.5%
13	GB	0.65	-0.04	61.3%
14	LV	0.65	-0.04	58.1%
15	MIN	0.65	-0.04	54.8%
16	NYG	0.65	-0.04	51.6%
17	NYJ	0.65	-0.04	48.4%
18	SEA	0.65	-0.04	45.2%
19	DAL	0.71	0.02	41.9%
20	WAS	0.71	0.02	38.7%
21	HOU	0.76	0.07	35.5%
22	IND	0.76	0.07	32.3%
23	PIT	0.76	0.07	29%
24	LAR	0.82	0.13	25.8%
25	TB	0.82	0.13	22.6%
26	BAL	0.88	0.19	19.4%
27	DET	0.88	0.19	16.1%
28	MIA	0.88	0.19	12.9%
29	PHI	0.88	0.19	9.7%
30	TEN	1.12	0.43	6.5%
31	KC	1.18	0.49	3.2%
32	BUF	1.19	0.50	0%

Does Fourth down success (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 768–810–37 ATS (48.7%) across 2020–2025, #273 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (137–117, 53.9%); its worst 2024 (109–154, 41.4%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	137–117–2	53.9%
2021	272	126–144–2	46.7%
2022	271	132–132–7	50.0%
2023	272	128–130–14	49.6%
2024	272	109–154–9	41.4%
2025	272	136–133–3	50.6%

Fourth down success (allowed) in 2022 vs 2021

Bears lead at 0.35 — they ranked #12 last year. Bills are last at 1.19 — #26 last year.

The league average is 0.69, down 0.09 from 0.78 last year.

Biggest riser: Browns, #27 → #6. Biggest faller: Lions, #3 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 0.83; 22 teams are within 0.21 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DET · +0.35

Biggest faller

LV · −0.59

Most consistent

PHI · 0

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▼ -0.09

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	DET	0.88	0.53	+0.35
2	TEN	1.12	0.82	+0.29
3	BUF	1.19	0.94	+0.25
4	BAL	0.88	0.65	+0.24
5	MIA	0.88	0.65	+0.24
6	CIN	0.56	0.41	+0.15
7	HOU	0.76	0.65	+0.12
8	KC	1.18	1.12	+0.06
9	TB	0.82	0.76	+0.06
10	IND	0.76	0.71	+0.06
11	PHI	0.88	0.88	0
12	PIT	0.76	0.76	0
13	WAS	0.71	0.71	0
14	LAC	0.35	0.41	−0.06
15	NO	0.47	0.53	−0.06
16	SF	0.59	0.65	−0.06
17	NYJ	0.65	0.76	−0.12
18	SEA	0.65	0.76	−0.12
19	DEN	0.53	0.65	−0.12
20	LAR	0.82	1	−0.18
21	DAL	0.71	0.94	−0.24
22	GB	0.65	0.88	−0.24
23	JAX	0.59	0.82	−0.24
24	MIN	0.65	0.88	−0.24
25	NYG	0.65	0.88	−0.24
26	ATL	0.41	0.65	−0.24
27	CAR	0.47	0.71	−0.24
28	ARI	0.47	0.82	−0.35
29	CHI	0.35	0.71	−0.35
30	CLE	0.47	0.94	−0.47
31	NE	0.59	1.06	−0.47
32	LV	0.65	1.24	−0.59

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 0.57

Multi-year laggard

PHI · 0.95

Biggest improver

CLE · −0.19/yr

Biggest decliner

PIT · +0.14/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	0.57	−0.19	1.38	0.94	0.47	0.35	0.47	0.41	0
2	CHI	0.58	−0.04	0.81	0.71	0.35	0.59	0.53	0.65	0.40
3	CIN	0.60	+0.01	0.63	0.41	0.56	0.41	0.94	1.06	0.20
4	CAR	0.62	+0.08	0.38	0.71	0.47	0.41	0.53	0.82	1
5	NYG	0.64	−0.07	0.69	0.88	0.65	0.59	0.71	0.94	0
6	NO	0.65	−0.06	1	0.53	0.47	0.65	0.82	1.06	0
7	NYJ	0.66	+0.05	0.31	0.76	0.65	0.41	0.94	0.94	0.60
8	NE	0.66	−0.03	0.56	1.06	0.59	0.59	0.65	0.59	0.60
9	ARI	0.73	+0.02	0.88	0.82	0.47	0.41	0.82	0.71	1
10	DEN	0.73	+0.07	0.44	0.65	0.53	0.94	0.94	0.82	0.80
11	LAC	0.73	+0.07	0.63	0.41	0.35	1.12	1.06	0.76	0.80
12	DAL	0.74	−0.07	0.63	0.94	0.71	1.12	1	0.76	0
13	HOU	0.75	−0.01	0.69	0.65	0.76	0.94	1	0.59	0.60
14	MIA	0.75	−0.01	0.75	0.65	0.88	0.82	0.59	1.18	0.40
15	IND	0.77	+0.08	0.38	0.71	0.76	1	0.65	0.88	1
16	WAS	0.78	+0.05	0.56	0.71	0.71	0.76	0.94	1.18	0.60
17	JAX	0.78	−0.02	0.75	0.82	0.59	1.24	0.82	0.65	0.60
18	ATL	0.78	+0.11	0.63	0.65	0.41	0.65	0.82	1.12	1.20
19	LV	0.79	−0.07	0.88	1.24	0.65	0.82	0.59	0.76	0.60
20	SF	0.80	+0.04	0.81	0.65	0.59	0.82	1	0.71	1
21	LAR	0.80	−0.00	0.56	1	0.82	0.94	0.53	1.35	0.40
22	TEN	0.81	−0.04	0.94	0.82	1.12	0.71	0.59	0.71	0.80
23	PIT	0.83	+0.14	0.31	0.76	0.76	0.47	0.88	1.65	1
24	TB	0.84	+0.01	0.88	0.76	0.82	0.71	1.12	0.82	0.80
25	KC	0.85	−0.05	0.81	1.12	1.18	0.76	0.71	0.35	1
26	SEA	0.85	+0.10	0.63	0.76	0.65	0.76	0.59	1.35	1.20
27	BAL	0.88	+0.02	1	0.65	0.88	0.76	0.71	1.35	0.80
28	MIN	0.88	−0.02	1.06	0.88	0.65	1.06	0.76	0.94	0.80
29	GB	0.89	+0.03	0.88	0.88	0.65	0.82	1.06	1.18	0.80
30	DET	0.90	+0.12	0.69	0.53	0.88	0.88	0.71	1.24	1.40
31	BUF	0.94	+0.07	0.69	0.94	1.19	0.59	1	0.59	1.60
32	PHI	0.95	+0.12	0.44	0.88	0.88	1.12	1.12	0.65	1.60

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CHI	0.81	0.71	0.35	0.59	0.53	0.65	0.40
LAC	0.63	0.41	0.35	1.12	1.06	0.76	0.80
ATL	0.63	0.65	0.41	0.65	0.82	1.12	1.20
ARI	0.88	0.82	0.47	0.41	0.82	0.71	1
CAR	0.38	0.71	0.47	0.41	0.53	0.82	1
CLE	1.38	0.94	0.47	0.35	0.47	0.41	0
NO	1	0.53	0.47	0.65	0.82	1.06	0
DEN	0.44	0.65	0.53	0.94	0.94	0.82	0.80
CIN	0.63	0.41	0.56	0.41	0.94	1.06	0.20
JAX	0.75	0.82	0.59	1.24	0.82	0.65	0.60
NE	0.56	1.06	0.59	0.59	0.65	0.59	0.60
SF	0.81	0.65	0.59	0.82	1	0.71	1
GB	0.88	0.88	0.65	0.82	1.06	1.18	0.80
LV	0.88	1.24	0.65	0.82	0.59	0.76	0.60
MIN	1.06	0.88	0.65	1.06	0.76	0.94	0.80
NYG	0.69	0.88	0.65	0.59	0.71	0.94	0
NYJ	0.31	0.76	0.65	0.41	0.94	0.94	0.60
SEA	0.63	0.76	0.65	0.76	0.59	1.35	1.20
DAL	0.63	0.94	0.71	1.12	1	0.76	0
WAS	0.56	0.71	0.71	0.76	0.94	1.18	0.60
HOU	0.69	0.65	0.76	0.94	1	0.59	0.60
IND	0.38	0.71	0.76	1	0.65	0.88	1
PIT	0.31	0.76	0.76	0.47	0.88	1.65	1
LAR	0.56	1	0.82	0.94	0.53	1.35	0.40
TB	0.88	0.76	0.82	0.71	1.12	0.82	0.80
BAL	1	0.65	0.88	0.76	0.71	1.35	0.80
DET	0.69	0.53	0.88	0.88	0.71	1.24	1.40
MIA	0.75	0.65	0.88	0.82	0.59	1.18	0.40
PHI	0.44	0.88	0.88	1.12	1.12	0.65	1.60
TEN	0.94	0.82	1.12	0.71	0.59	0.71	0.80
KC	0.81	1.12	1.18	0.76	0.71	0.35	1
BUF	0.69	0.94	1.19	0.59	1	0.59	1.60

Fourth down success (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (0.19), 2019 Cardinals (0.19), 2020 Jets (0.31), 2021 Bengals (0.41), 2022 Bears (0.35).

The best season on record is Jaguars 2018 at 0.19; the worst Browns 2020 at 1.38.

The league average has risen from 0.59 in 2018 to 0.69 in 2022.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_success
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.