What Fourth down success (allowed) is

Fourth downs opponents converted against this defense. The count behind the rate.

Lower is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2019 the Cardinals led at 0.19; the league average was 0.56.

League snapshot — 2019

League leader

ARI · 0.19

League average

0.56

Best to worst

0.81

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	ARI	0.19	16
2	NYJ	0.19	16
3	CIN	0.31	16
4	JAX	0.31	16
5	BAL	0.38	16
6	CAR	0.38	16
7	CLE	0.38	16
8	DET	0.44	16
9	HOU	0.44	16
10	SEA	0.44	16
11	BUF	0.50	16
12	GB	0.50	16
13	IND	0.50	16
14	LAC	0.50	16
15	MIA	0.50	16
16	NE	0.50	16
17	NYG	0.50	16
18	SF	0.50	16
19	DEN	0.56	16
20	LV	0.56	16
21	DAL	0.63	16
22	PIT	0.63	16
23	TEN	0.63	16
24	NO	0.69	16
25	PHI	0.69	16
26	ATL	0.75	16
27	WAS	0.75	16
28	CHI	0.81	16
29	TB	0.81	16
30	LAR	0.88	16
31	KC	1	16
32	MIN	1	16

At a glance — 2019

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

NYJ · 0.19

League laggard

KC · 1

League average

0.56

Spread (max − min)

0.81

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	ARI	0.19	-0.37	100%
2	NYJ	0.19	-0.37	96.8%
3	CIN	0.31	-0.24	93.5%
4	JAX	0.31	-0.24	90.3%
5	BAL	0.38	-0.18	87.1%
6	CAR	0.38	-0.18	83.9%
7	CLE	0.38	-0.18	80.6%
8	DET	0.44	-0.12	77.4%
9	HOU	0.44	-0.12	74.2%
10	SEA	0.44	-0.12	71%
11	BUF	0.50	-0.06	67.7%
12	GB	0.50	-0.06	64.5%
13	IND	0.50	-0.06	61.3%
14	LAC	0.50	-0.06	58.1%
15	MIA	0.50	-0.06	54.8%
16	NE	0.50	-0.06	51.6%
17	NYG	0.50	-0.06	48.4%
18	SF	0.50	-0.06	45.2%
19	DEN	0.56	0.01	41.9%
20	LV	0.56	0.01	38.7%
21	DAL	0.63	0.07	35.5%
22	PIT	0.63	0.07	32.3%
23	TEN	0.63	0.07	29%
24	NO	0.69	0.13	25.8%
25	PHI	0.69	0.13	22.6%
26	ATL	0.75	0.19	19.4%
27	WAS	0.75	0.19	16.1%
28	CHI	0.81	0.26	12.9%
29	TB	0.81	0.26	9.7%
30	LAR	0.88	0.32	6.5%
31	KC	1	0.44	3.2%
32	MIN	1	0.44	0%

Does Fourth down success (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 768–810–37 ATS (48.7%) across 2020–2025, #273 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (137–117, 53.9%); its worst 2024 (109–154, 41.4%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	137–117–2	53.9%
2021	272	126–144–2	46.7%
2022	271	132–132–7	50.0%
2023	272	128–130–14	49.6%
2024	272	109–154–9	41.4%
2025	272	136–133–3	50.6%

Fourth down success (allowed) in 2019 vs 2018

Cardinals lead at 0.19 — they ranked #12 last year. Vikings are last at 1 — #16 last year.

The league average is 0.56, down 0.03 from 0.59 last year.

Biggest riser: Browns, #28 → #7. Biggest faller: Commanders, #2 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 0.81; 23 teams are within 0.20 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2019 vs 2018

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIN · +0.44

Biggest faller

CLE · −0.44

Most consistent

PHI · 0

League trend 2019 vs 2018

▼ -0.03

Rank	Team	2019	2018	Δ
1	MIN	1	0.56	+0.44
2	WAS	0.75	0.31	+0.44
3	TB	0.81	0.44	+0.38
4	LAR	0.88	0.56	+0.31
5	DAL	0.63	0.38	+0.25
6	DEN	0.56	0.38	+0.19
7	PIT	0.63	0.44	+0.19
8	ATL	0.75	0.63	+0.13
9	BUF	0.50	0.38	+0.13
10	JAX	0.31	0.19	+0.13
11	MIA	0.50	0.38	+0.13
12	NE	0.50	0.38	+0.13
13	IND	0.50	0.44	+0.06
14	LV	0.56	0.50	+0.06
15	SEA	0.44	0.38	+0.06
16	PHI	0.69	0.69	0
17	TEN	0.63	0.69	−0.06
18	DET	0.44	0.56	−0.13
19	KC	1	1.13	−0.13
20	SF	0.50	0.63	−0.13
21	CHI	0.81	1	−0.19
22	LAC	0.50	0.69	−0.19
23	NO	0.69	0.88	−0.19
24	BAL	0.38	0.63	−0.25
25	CAR	0.38	0.63	−0.25
26	GB	0.50	0.75	−0.25
27	ARI	0.19	0.50	−0.31
28	HOU	0.44	0.75	−0.31
29	CIN	0.31	0.69	−0.38
30	NYG	0.50	0.88	−0.38
31	NYJ	0.19	0.56	−0.38
32	CLE	0.38	0.81	−0.44

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 0.57

Multi-year laggard

PHI · 0.95

Biggest improver

CLE · −0.19/yr

Biggest decliner

PIT · +0.14/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	0.57	−0.19	1.38	0.94	0.47	0.35	0.47	0.41	0
2	CHI	0.58	−0.04	0.81	0.71	0.35	0.59	0.53	0.65	0.40
3	CIN	0.60	+0.01	0.63	0.41	0.56	0.41	0.94	1.06	0.20
4	CAR	0.62	+0.08	0.38	0.71	0.47	0.41	0.53	0.82	1
5	NYG	0.64	−0.07	0.69	0.88	0.65	0.59	0.71	0.94	0
6	NO	0.65	−0.06	1	0.53	0.47	0.65	0.82	1.06	0
7	NYJ	0.66	+0.05	0.31	0.76	0.65	0.41	0.94	0.94	0.60
8	NE	0.66	−0.03	0.56	1.06	0.59	0.59	0.65	0.59	0.60
9	ARI	0.73	+0.02	0.88	0.82	0.47	0.41	0.82	0.71	1
10	DEN	0.73	+0.07	0.44	0.65	0.53	0.94	0.94	0.82	0.80
11	LAC	0.73	+0.07	0.63	0.41	0.35	1.12	1.06	0.76	0.80
12	DAL	0.74	−0.07	0.63	0.94	0.71	1.12	1	0.76	0
13	HOU	0.75	−0.01	0.69	0.65	0.76	0.94	1	0.59	0.60
14	MIA	0.75	−0.01	0.75	0.65	0.88	0.82	0.59	1.18	0.40
15	IND	0.77	+0.08	0.38	0.71	0.76	1	0.65	0.88	1
16	WAS	0.78	+0.05	0.56	0.71	0.71	0.76	0.94	1.18	0.60
17	JAX	0.78	−0.02	0.75	0.82	0.59	1.24	0.82	0.65	0.60
18	ATL	0.78	+0.11	0.63	0.65	0.41	0.65	0.82	1.12	1.20
19	LV	0.79	−0.07	0.88	1.24	0.65	0.82	0.59	0.76	0.60
20	SF	0.80	+0.04	0.81	0.65	0.59	0.82	1	0.71	1
21	LAR	0.80	−0.00	0.56	1	0.82	0.94	0.53	1.35	0.40
22	TEN	0.81	−0.04	0.94	0.82	1.12	0.71	0.59	0.71	0.80
23	PIT	0.83	+0.14	0.31	0.76	0.76	0.47	0.88	1.65	1
24	TB	0.84	+0.01	0.88	0.76	0.82	0.71	1.12	0.82	0.80
25	KC	0.85	−0.05	0.81	1.12	1.18	0.76	0.71	0.35	1
26	SEA	0.85	+0.10	0.63	0.76	0.65	0.76	0.59	1.35	1.20
27	BAL	0.88	+0.02	1	0.65	0.88	0.76	0.71	1.35	0.80
28	MIN	0.88	−0.02	1.06	0.88	0.65	1.06	0.76	0.94	0.80
29	GB	0.89	+0.03	0.88	0.88	0.65	0.82	1.06	1.18	0.80
30	DET	0.90	+0.12	0.69	0.53	0.88	0.88	0.71	1.24	1.40
31	BUF	0.94	+0.07	0.69	0.94	1.19	0.59	1	0.59	1.60
32	PHI	0.95	+0.12	0.44	0.88	0.88	1.12	1.12	0.65	1.60

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CLE	1.38	0.94	0.47	0.35	0.47	0.41	0
DAL	0.63	0.94	0.71	1.12	1	0.76	0
NO	1	0.53	0.47	0.65	0.82	1.06	0
NYG	0.69	0.88	0.65	0.59	0.71	0.94	0
CIN	0.63	0.41	0.56	0.41	0.94	1.06	0.20
CHI	0.81	0.71	0.35	0.59	0.53	0.65	0.40
LAR	0.56	1	0.82	0.94	0.53	1.35	0.40
MIA	0.75	0.65	0.88	0.82	0.59	1.18	0.40
HOU	0.69	0.65	0.76	0.94	1	0.59	0.60
JAX	0.75	0.82	0.59	1.24	0.82	0.65	0.60
LV	0.88	1.24	0.65	0.82	0.59	0.76	0.60
NE	0.56	1.06	0.59	0.59	0.65	0.59	0.60
NYJ	0.31	0.76	0.65	0.41	0.94	0.94	0.60
WAS	0.56	0.71	0.71	0.76	0.94	1.18	0.60
BAL	1	0.65	0.88	0.76	0.71	1.35	0.80
DEN	0.44	0.65	0.53	0.94	0.94	0.82	0.80
GB	0.88	0.88	0.65	0.82	1.06	1.18	0.80
LAC	0.63	0.41	0.35	1.12	1.06	0.76	0.80
MIN	1.06	0.88	0.65	1.06	0.76	0.94	0.80
TB	0.88	0.76	0.82	0.71	1.12	0.82	0.80
TEN	0.94	0.82	1.12	0.71	0.59	0.71	0.80
ARI	0.88	0.82	0.47	0.41	0.82	0.71	1
CAR	0.38	0.71	0.47	0.41	0.53	0.82	1
IND	0.38	0.71	0.76	1	0.65	0.88	1
KC	0.81	1.12	1.18	0.76	0.71	0.35	1
PIT	0.31	0.76	0.76	0.47	0.88	1.65	1
SF	0.81	0.65	0.59	0.82	1	0.71	1
ATL	0.63	0.65	0.41	0.65	0.82	1.12	1.20
SEA	0.63	0.76	0.65	0.76	0.59	1.35	1.20
DET	0.69	0.53	0.88	0.88	0.71	1.24	1.40
BUF	0.69	0.94	1.19	0.59	1	0.59	1.60
PHI	0.44	0.88	0.88	1.12	1.12	0.65	1.60

Fourth down success (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (0.19), 2019 Cardinals (0.19).

The best season on record is Jaguars 2018 at 0.19; the worst Chiefs 2018 at 1.13.

The league average has fallen from 0.59 in 2018 to 0.56 in 2019.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2019.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_success
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.