What Fourth down success (allowed) is

Fourth downs opponents converted against this defense. The count behind the rate.

Lower is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Bengals led at 0.41; the league average was 0.78.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

CIN · 0.41

League average

0.78

Best to worst

0.82

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	CIN	0.41	17
2	LAC	0.41	17
3	DET	0.53	17
4	NO	0.53	17
5	ATL	0.65	17
6	BAL	0.65	17
7	DEN	0.65	17
8	HOU	0.65	17
9	MIA	0.65	17
10	SF	0.65	17
11	CAR	0.71	17
12	CHI	0.71	17
13	IND	0.71	17
14	WAS	0.71	17
15	NYJ	0.76	17
16	PIT	0.76	17
17	SEA	0.76	17
18	TB	0.76	17
19	ARI	0.82	17
20	JAX	0.82	17
21	TEN	0.82	17
22	GB	0.88	17
23	MIN	0.88	17
24	NYG	0.88	17
25	PHI	0.88	17
26	BUF	0.94	17
27	CLE	0.94	17
28	DAL	0.94	17
29	LAR	1	17
30	NE	1.06	17
31	KC	1.12	17
32	LV	1.24	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAC · 0.41

League laggard

LV · 1.24

League average

0.78

Spread (max − min)

0.82

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CIN	0.41	-0.37	100%
2	LAC	0.41	-0.37	96.8%
3	DET	0.53	-0.25	93.5%
4	NO	0.53	-0.25	90.3%
5	ATL	0.65	-0.13	87.1%
6	BAL	0.65	-0.13	83.9%
7	DEN	0.65	-0.13	80.6%
8	HOU	0.65	-0.13	77.4%
9	MIA	0.65	-0.13	74.2%
10	SF	0.65	-0.13	71%
11	CAR	0.71	-0.07	67.7%
12	CHI	0.71	-0.07	64.5%
13	IND	0.71	-0.07	61.3%
14	WAS	0.71	-0.07	58.1%
15	NYJ	0.76	-0.01	54.8%
16	PIT	0.76	-0.01	51.6%
17	SEA	0.76	-0.01	48.4%
18	TB	0.76	-0.01	45.2%
19	ARI	0.82	0.05	41.9%
20	JAX	0.82	0.05	38.7%
21	TEN	0.82	0.05	35.5%
22	GB	0.88	0.10	32.3%
23	MIN	0.88	0.10	29%
24	NYG	0.88	0.10	25.8%
25	PHI	0.88	0.10	22.6%
26	BUF	0.94	0.16	19.4%
27	CLE	0.94	0.16	16.1%
28	DAL	0.94	0.16	12.9%
29	LAR	1	0.22	9.7%
30	NE	1.06	0.28	6.5%
31	KC	1.12	0.34	3.2%
32	LV	1.24	0.46	0%

Does Fourth down success (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 768–810–37 ATS (48.7%) across 2020–2025, #273 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (137–117, 53.9%); its worst 2024 (109–154, 41.4%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	137–117–2	53.9%
2021	272	126–144–2	46.7%
2022	271	132–132–7	50.0%
2023	272	128–130–14	49.6%
2024	272	109–154–9	41.4%
2025	272	136–133–3	50.6%

Fourth down success (allowed) in 2021 vs 2020

Bengals lead at 0.41 — they ranked #11 last year. Raiders are last at 1.24 — #26 last year.

The league average is 0.78, up 0.07 from 0.71 last year.

Biggest riser: Saints, #30 → #4. Biggest faller: Rams, #7 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 0.82; 24 teams are within 0.19 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NE · +0.50

Biggest faller

NO · −0.47

Most consistent

GB · +0.01

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▲ 0.07

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	NE	1.06	0.56	+0.50
2	NYJ	0.76	0.31	+0.45
3	PIT	0.76	0.31	+0.45
4	PHI	0.88	0.44	+0.44
5	LAR	1	0.56	+0.44
6	LV	1.24	0.88	+0.36
7	CAR	0.71	0.38	+0.33
8	IND	0.71	0.38	+0.33
9	DAL	0.94	0.63	+0.32
10	KC	1.12	0.81	+0.31
11	BUF	0.94	0.69	+0.25
12	DEN	0.65	0.44	+0.21
13	NYG	0.88	0.69	+0.19
14	WAS	0.71	0.56	+0.14
15	SEA	0.76	0.63	+0.14
16	JAX	0.82	0.75	+0.07
17	ATL	0.65	0.63	+0.02
18	GB	0.88	0.88	+0.01
19	HOU	0.65	0.69	−0.04
20	ARI	0.82	0.88	−0.05
21	MIA	0.65	0.75	−0.10
22	CHI	0.71	0.81	−0.11
23	TB	0.76	0.88	−0.11
24	TEN	0.82	0.94	−0.11
25	DET	0.53	0.69	−0.16
26	SF	0.65	0.81	−0.17
27	MIN	0.88	1.06	−0.18
28	CIN	0.41	0.63	−0.21
29	LAC	0.41	0.63	−0.21
30	BAL	0.65	1	−0.35
31	CLE	0.94	1.38	−0.43
32	NO	0.53	1	−0.47

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

CLE · 0.57

Multi-year laggard

PHI · 0.95

Biggest improver

CLE · −0.19/yr

Biggest decliner

PIT · +0.14/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	CLE	0.57	−0.19	1.38	0.94	0.47	0.35	0.47	0.41	0
2	CHI	0.58	−0.04	0.81	0.71	0.35	0.59	0.53	0.65	0.40
3	CIN	0.60	+0.01	0.63	0.41	0.56	0.41	0.94	1.06	0.20
4	CAR	0.62	+0.08	0.38	0.71	0.47	0.41	0.53	0.82	1
5	NYG	0.64	−0.07	0.69	0.88	0.65	0.59	0.71	0.94	0
6	NO	0.65	−0.06	1	0.53	0.47	0.65	0.82	1.06	0
7	NYJ	0.66	+0.05	0.31	0.76	0.65	0.41	0.94	0.94	0.60
8	NE	0.66	−0.03	0.56	1.06	0.59	0.59	0.65	0.59	0.60
9	ARI	0.73	+0.02	0.88	0.82	0.47	0.41	0.82	0.71	1
10	DEN	0.73	+0.07	0.44	0.65	0.53	0.94	0.94	0.82	0.80
11	LAC	0.73	+0.07	0.63	0.41	0.35	1.12	1.06	0.76	0.80
12	DAL	0.74	−0.07	0.63	0.94	0.71	1.12	1	0.76	0
13	HOU	0.75	−0.01	0.69	0.65	0.76	0.94	1	0.59	0.60
14	MIA	0.75	−0.01	0.75	0.65	0.88	0.82	0.59	1.18	0.40
15	IND	0.77	+0.08	0.38	0.71	0.76	1	0.65	0.88	1
16	WAS	0.78	+0.05	0.56	0.71	0.71	0.76	0.94	1.18	0.60
17	JAX	0.78	−0.02	0.75	0.82	0.59	1.24	0.82	0.65	0.60
18	ATL	0.78	+0.11	0.63	0.65	0.41	0.65	0.82	1.12	1.20
19	LV	0.79	−0.07	0.88	1.24	0.65	0.82	0.59	0.76	0.60
20	SF	0.80	+0.04	0.81	0.65	0.59	0.82	1	0.71	1
21	LAR	0.80	−0.00	0.56	1	0.82	0.94	0.53	1.35	0.40
22	TEN	0.81	−0.04	0.94	0.82	1.12	0.71	0.59	0.71	0.80
23	PIT	0.83	+0.14	0.31	0.76	0.76	0.47	0.88	1.65	1
24	TB	0.84	+0.01	0.88	0.76	0.82	0.71	1.12	0.82	0.80
25	KC	0.85	−0.05	0.81	1.12	1.18	0.76	0.71	0.35	1
26	SEA	0.85	+0.10	0.63	0.76	0.65	0.76	0.59	1.35	1.20
27	BAL	0.88	+0.02	1	0.65	0.88	0.76	0.71	1.35	0.80
28	MIN	0.88	−0.02	1.06	0.88	0.65	1.06	0.76	0.94	0.80
29	GB	0.89	+0.03	0.88	0.88	0.65	0.82	1.06	1.18	0.80
30	DET	0.90	+0.12	0.69	0.53	0.88	0.88	0.71	1.24	1.40
31	BUF	0.94	+0.07	0.69	0.94	1.19	0.59	1	0.59	1.60
32	PHI	0.95	+0.12	0.44	0.88	0.88	1.12	1.12	0.65	1.60

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CIN	0.63	0.41	0.56	0.41	0.94	1.06	0.20
LAC	0.63	0.41	0.35	1.12	1.06	0.76	0.80
DET	0.69	0.53	0.88	0.88	0.71	1.24	1.40
NO	1	0.53	0.47	0.65	0.82	1.06	0
ATL	0.63	0.65	0.41	0.65	0.82	1.12	1.20
BAL	1	0.65	0.88	0.76	0.71	1.35	0.80
DEN	0.44	0.65	0.53	0.94	0.94	0.82	0.80
HOU	0.69	0.65	0.76	0.94	1	0.59	0.60
MIA	0.75	0.65	0.88	0.82	0.59	1.18	0.40
SF	0.81	0.65	0.59	0.82	1	0.71	1
CAR	0.38	0.71	0.47	0.41	0.53	0.82	1
CHI	0.81	0.71	0.35	0.59	0.53	0.65	0.40
IND	0.38	0.71	0.76	1	0.65	0.88	1
WAS	0.56	0.71	0.71	0.76	0.94	1.18	0.60
NYJ	0.31	0.76	0.65	0.41	0.94	0.94	0.60
PIT	0.31	0.76	0.76	0.47	0.88	1.65	1
SEA	0.63	0.76	0.65	0.76	0.59	1.35	1.20
TB	0.88	0.76	0.82	0.71	1.12	0.82	0.80
ARI	0.88	0.82	0.47	0.41	0.82	0.71	1
JAX	0.75	0.82	0.59	1.24	0.82	0.65	0.60
TEN	0.94	0.82	1.12	0.71	0.59	0.71	0.80
GB	0.88	0.88	0.65	0.82	1.06	1.18	0.80
MIN	1.06	0.88	0.65	1.06	0.76	0.94	0.80
NYG	0.69	0.88	0.65	0.59	0.71	0.94	0
PHI	0.44	0.88	0.88	1.12	1.12	0.65	1.60
BUF	0.69	0.94	1.19	0.59	1	0.59	1.60
CLE	1.38	0.94	0.47	0.35	0.47	0.41	0
DAL	0.63	0.94	0.71	1.12	1	0.76	0
LAR	0.56	1	0.82	0.94	0.53	1.35	0.40
NE	0.56	1.06	0.59	0.59	0.65	0.59	0.60
KC	0.81	1.12	1.18	0.76	0.71	0.35	1
LV	0.88	1.24	0.65	0.82	0.59	0.76	0.60

Fourth down success (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Jaguars (0.19), 2019 Cardinals (0.19), 2020 Jets (0.31), 2021 Bengals (0.41).

The best season on record is Jaguars 2018 at 0.19; the worst Browns 2020 at 1.38.

The league average has risen from 0.59 in 2018 to 0.78 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_fourth_down_success
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.