What NET EPA (Off + Def) is

Net EPA: the expected points this team's offense added plus the expected points its defense took away from opponents — the two sides of the ball valued play by play, in one number. The situation-aware summary of a whole team; a strong positive number is a team that wins the down-and-distance battle on both sides.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: N.

In 2022 the Bills led at 12.18; the league average was 0.04.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

BUF · 12.18

League average

0.04

Best to worst

21.36

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	12.18	16
2	SF	12.08	17
3	KC	9.29	17
4	PHI	8.98	17
5	DAL	8.61	17
6	CIN	7.26	16
7	JAX	4.15	17
8	BAL	3.29	17
9	NE	1.77	17
10	DET	1.38	17
11	SEA	0.83	17
12	MIA	0.53	17
13	LAC	-0.21	17
14	GB	-0.30	17
15	NYG	-1.13	17
16	CLE	-1.16	17
17	NO	-1.23	17
18	LV	-1.38	17
19	CAR	-1.39	17
20	MIN	-1.51	17
21	WAS	-1.51	17
22	ATL	-1.74	17
23	NYJ	-2.18	17
24	PIT	-2.38	17
25	TB	-3.36	17
26	TEN	-4.34	17
27	DEN	-5.31	17
28	LAR	-5.64	17
29	ARI	-7.72	17
30	HOU	-8.59	17
31	IND	-8.90	17
32	CHI	-9.18	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 12.18

League laggard

CHI · -9.18

League average

0.04

Spread (max − min)

21.36

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	12.18	12.15	100%
2	SF	12.08	12.04	96.8%
3	KC	9.29	9.25	93.5%
4	PHI	8.98	8.94	90.3%
5	DAL	8.61	8.57	87.1%
6	CIN	7.26	7.22	83.9%
7	JAX	4.15	4.11	80.6%
8	BAL	3.29	3.26	77.4%
9	NE	1.77	1.73	74.2%
10	DET	1.38	1.34	71%
11	SEA	0.83	0.79	67.7%
12	MIA	0.53	0.50	64.5%
13	LAC	-0.21	-0.25	61.3%
14	GB	-0.30	-0.34	58.1%
15	NYG	-1.13	-1.17	54.8%
16	CLE	-1.16	-1.20	51.6%
17	NO	-1.23	-1.27	48.4%
18	LV	-1.38	-1.42	45.2%
19	CAR	-1.39	-1.43	41.9%
20	MIN	-1.51	-1.55	38.7%
21	WAS	-1.51	-1.55	35.5%
22	ATL	-1.74	-1.78	32.3%
23	NYJ	-2.18	-2.22	29%
24	PIT	-2.38	-2.41	25.8%
25	TB	-3.36	-3.39	22.6%
26	TEN	-4.34	-4.38	19.4%
27	DEN	-5.31	-5.35	16.1%
28	LAR	-5.64	-5.68	12.9%
29	ARI	-7.72	-7.75	9.7%
30	HOU	-8.59	-8.63	6.5%
31	IND	-8.90	-8.94	3.2%
32	CHI	-9.18	-9.22	0%

Does NET EPA (Off + Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 974–604–37 ATS (61.7%) across 2020–2025, #1 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (168–86, 66.1%); its worst 2022 (154–110, 58.3%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	168–86–2	66.1%
2021	272	161–109–2	59.6%
2022	271	154–110–7	58.3%
2023	272	155–103–14	60.1%
2024	272	170–93–9	64.6%
2025	272	166–103–3	61.7%

NET EPA (Off + Def) in 2022 vs 2021

Bills lead at 12.18 — they ranked #1 last year. Bears are last at -9.18 — #24 last year.

The league average is 0.04, up 0.04 from 0.00 last year.

Biggest riser: Jaguars, #32 → #7. Biggest faller: Buccaneers, #3 → #25.

Spread between first and last: 21.36; 22 teams are within 5.69 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

JAX · +18.53

Biggest faller

IND · −14.66

Most consistent

PIT · +0.71

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▲ 0.04

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	JAX	4.15	-14.39	+18.53
2	NYJ	-2.18	-13.99	+11.81
3	DET	1.38	-10.00	+11.38
4	NYG	-1.13	-10.26	+9.13
5	ATL	-1.74	-10.04	+8.30
6	SF	12.08	4.34	+7.73
7	CAR	-1.39	-6.76	+5.37
8	WAS	-1.51	-6.80	+5.28
9	PHI	8.98	4.11	+4.86
10	BAL	3.29	-0.81	+4.10
11	HOU	-8.59	-11.94	+3.35
12	LV	-1.38	-4.46	+3.07
13	MIA	0.53	-2.23	+2.76
14	CIN	7.26	5.52	+1.74
15	CLE	-1.16	-2.18	+1.02
16	KC	9.29	8.38	+0.91
17	PIT	-2.38	-3.09	+0.71
18	SEA	0.83	1.60	−0.77
19	LAC	-0.21	0.77	−0.98
20	BUF	12.18	13.40	−1.22
21	MIN	-1.51	0.62	−2.13
22	CHI	-9.18	-6.65	−2.53
23	NO	-1.23	1.93	−3.16
24	DAL	8.61	11.89	−3.28
25	DEN	-5.31	0.74	−6.05
26	GB	-0.30	6.08	−6.38
27	TEN	-4.34	3.81	−8.15
28	NE	1.77	10.64	−8.88
29	LAR	-5.64	6.51	−12.15
30	ARI	-7.72	6.44	−14.16
31	TB	-3.36	11.06	−14.42
32	IND	-8.90	5.75	−14.66

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.80

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -8.08

Biggest improver

JAX · +4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −3.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.80	−0.86	9.37	13.40	12.18	9.27	11.20	7.93	5.29
2	KC	6.95	−0.30	8.08	8.38	9.29	5.32	4.38	2.20	11.04
3	BAL	6.62	−0.31	12.46	-0.81	3.29	13.74	10.73	1.22	5.70
4	SF	6.18	+1.03	-1.17	4.34	12.08	13.15	-3.17	4.99	13.05
5	GB	4.16	−1.14	10.36	6.08	-0.30	2.51	8.94	2.55	-1.04
6	SEA	3.90	+0.96	6.12	1.60	0.83	-2.23	0.06	13.58	7.34
7	TB	3.27	−1.91	10.10	11.06	-3.36	1.71	8.14	-1.75	-3.00
8	LAR	2.70	−0.20	6.28	6.51	-5.64	1.87	-1.53	11.94	-0.55
9	DAL	2.62	−0.98	-5.77	11.89	8.61	14.04	-8.09	-2.67	0.34
10	PHI	2.47	+0.24	-6.65	4.11	8.98	0.78	11.18	3.93	-5.03
11	MIN	1.94	+1.97	-4.06	0.62	-1.51	-1.21	7.99	0.57	11.16
12	DET	1.16	+3.13	-10.86	-10.00	1.38	4.17	14.73	4.38	4.31
13	NE	1.08	+0.30	-1.81	10.64	1.77	-9.31	-9.24	11.34	4.16
14	CIN	0.79	+0.48	-8.42	5.52	7.26	-1.13	2.82	-5.26	4.75
15	PIT	0.38	−0.54	7.66	-3.09	-2.38	-1.27	2.56	0.72	-1.55
16	IND	0.19	−0.86	7.24	5.75	-8.90	-1.75	-3.63	4.07	-1.46
17	NO	-0.50	−2.70	9.99	1.93	-1.23	5.15	-4.59	-5.73	-8.99
18	DEN	-0.90	+1.44	-8.61	0.74	-5.31	-3.98	8.23	5.54	-2.93
19	LAC	-1.13	−0.44	-3.40	0.77	-0.21	-3.41	7.23	1.77	-10.63
20	JAX	-1.34	+4.03	-13.55	-14.39	4.15	0.66	-7.94	9.39	12.27
21	MIA	-1.40	−2.39	5.20	-2.23	0.53	7.37	-1.01	-4.93	-14.76
22	CHI	-2.11	+1.32	-0.28	-6.65	-9.18	-0.58	-5.14	2.20	4.83
23	HOU	-2.54	+2.18	-5.62	-11.94	-8.59	1.47	0.33	8.20	-1.65
24	ATL	-3.08	+0.55	-0.59	-10.04	-1.74	-3.59	-2.66	-3.27	0.34
25	CLE	-3.49	−1.02	-1.05	-2.18	-1.16	2.75	-12.11	-7.05	-3.66
26	ARI	-3.78	−2.44	3.35	6.44	-7.72	-8.54	1.10	-9.26	-11.87
27	WAS	-4.24	−0.53	-0.11	-6.80	-1.51	-13.19	6.52	-6.97	-7.61
28	LV	-4.26	−0.35	-3.29	-4.46	-1.38	-0.42	-8.67	-13.44	1.87
29	TEN	-5.58	−3.18	3.32	3.81	-4.34	-5.23	-10.23	-13.54	-12.83
30	CAR	-5.59	+0.48	-3.73	-6.76	-1.39	-12.18	-13.71	-4.95	3.62
31	NYG	-5.60	+0.79	-5.17	-10.26	-1.13	-9.68	-10.09	-3.48	0.64
32	NYJ	-8.08	+1.53	-15.39	-13.99	-2.18	-6.26	-4.34	-14.22	-0.20

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	9.37	13.40	12.18	9.27	11.20	7.93	5.29
SF	-1.17	4.34	12.08	13.15	-3.17	4.99	13.05
KC	8.08	8.38	9.29	5.32	4.38	2.20	11.04
PHI	-6.65	4.11	8.98	0.78	11.18	3.93	-5.03
DAL	-5.77	11.89	8.61	14.04	-8.09	-2.67	0.34
CIN	-8.42	5.52	7.26	-1.13	2.82	-5.26	4.75
JAX	-13.55	-14.39	4.15	0.66	-7.94	9.39	12.27
BAL	12.46	-0.81	3.29	13.74	10.73	1.22	5.70
NE	-1.81	10.64	1.77	-9.31	-9.24	11.34	4.16
DET	-10.86	-10.00	1.38	4.17	14.73	4.38	4.31
SEA	6.12	1.60	0.83	-2.23	0.06	13.58	7.34
MIA	5.20	-2.23	0.53	7.37	-1.01	-4.93	-14.76
LAC	-3.40	0.77	-0.21	-3.41	7.23	1.77	-10.63
GB	10.36	6.08	-0.30	2.51	8.94	2.55	-1.04
NYG	-5.17	-10.26	-1.13	-9.68	-10.09	-3.48	0.64
CLE	-1.05	-2.18	-1.16	2.75	-12.11	-7.05	-3.66
NO	9.99	1.93	-1.23	5.15	-4.59	-5.73	-8.99
LV	-3.29	-4.46	-1.38	-0.42	-8.67	-13.44	1.87
CAR	-3.73	-6.76	-1.39	-12.18	-13.71	-4.95	3.62
MIN	-4.06	0.62	-1.51	-1.21	7.99	0.57	11.16
WAS	-0.11	-6.80	-1.51	-13.19	6.52	-6.97	-7.61
ATL	-0.59	-10.04	-1.74	-3.59	-2.66	-3.27	0.34
NYJ	-15.39	-13.99	-2.18	-6.26	-4.34	-14.22	-0.20
PIT	7.66	-3.09	-2.38	-1.27	2.56	0.72	-1.55
TB	10.10	11.06	-3.36	1.71	8.14	-1.75	-3.00
TEN	3.32	3.81	-4.34	-5.23	-10.23	-13.54	-12.83
DEN	-8.61	0.74	-5.31	-3.98	8.23	5.54	-2.93
LAR	6.28	6.51	-5.64	1.87	-1.53	11.94	-0.55
ARI	3.35	6.44	-7.72	-8.54	1.10	-9.26	-11.87
HOU	-5.62	-11.94	-8.59	1.47	0.33	8.20	-1.65
IND	7.24	5.75	-8.90	-1.75	-3.63	4.07	-1.46
CHI	-0.28	-6.65	-9.18	-0.58	-5.14	2.20	4.83

NET EPA (Off + Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (11.33), 2019 Ravens (17.93), 2020 Ravens (12.46), 2021 Bills (13.40), 2022 Bills (12.18).

Ravens have led this stat 2 of 5 seasons.

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 17.93; the worst Jets 2020 at -15.39.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_epa
Side: net_epa
Family: NET (Off + Def)
Data source: N only
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.