NET EPA (Off + Def)
N only
About this stat ↓What NET EPA (Off + Def) is
Net EPA: the expected points this team's offense added plus the expected points its defense took away from opponents — the two sides of the ball valued play by play, in one number. The situation-aware summary of a whole team; a strong positive number is a team that wins the down-and-distance battle on both sides.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: N.
In 2018 the Chiefs led at 11.33; the league average was 0.00.
League snapshot — 2018
League leader
KC · 11.33
League average
0.00
Best to worst
25.64
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 11.33 | 16 |
| 2 | NO | 11.16 | 16 |
| 3 | LAR | 10.57 | 16 |
| 4 | CHI | 10.08 | 16 |
| 5 | NE | 7.92 | 16 |
| 6 | BAL | 7.60 | 16 |
| 7 | LAC | 6.84 | 16 |
| 8 | HOU | 6.50 | 16 |
| 9 | IND | 6.17 | 16 |
| 10 | SEA | 5.49 | 16 |
| 11 | PIT | 4.11 | 16 |
| 12 | DAL | 0.96 | 16 |
| 13 | PHI | 0.94 | 16 |
| 14 | MIN | 0.31 | 16 |
| 15 | TEN | 0.01 | 16 |
| 16 | CAR | -0.39 | 16 |
| 17 | ATL | -0.79 | 16 |
| 18 | GB | -1.50 | 16 |
| 19 | DEN | -1.66 | 16 |
| 20 | DET | -2.63 | 16 |
| 21 | CLE | -2.75 | 16 |
| 22 | NYG | -3.19 | 16 |
| 23 | JAX | -4.75 | 16 |
| 24 | TB | -4.93 | 16 |
| 25 | WAS | -5.41 | 16 |
| 26 | SF | -6.02 | 16 |
| 27 | CIN | -6.31 | 16 |
| 28 | BUF | -7.05 | 16 |
| 29 | NYJ | -7.17 | 16 |
| 30 | MIA | -8.63 | 16 |
| 31 | LV | -12.50 | 16 |
| 32 | ARI | -14.30 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
League leader
KC · 11.33
League laggard
ARI · -14.30
League average
0.00
Spread (max − min)
25.64
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 11.33 | 11.33 | 100% |
| 2 | NO | 11.16 | 11.16 | 96.8% |
| 3 | LAR | 10.57 | 10.57 | 93.5% |
| 4 | CHI | 10.08 | 10.08 | 90.3% |
| 5 | NE | 7.92 | 7.92 | 87.1% |
| 6 | BAL | 7.60 | 7.60 | 83.9% |
| 7 | LAC | 6.84 | 6.84 | 80.6% |
| 8 | HOU | 6.50 | 6.50 | 77.4% |
| 9 | IND | 6.17 | 6.17 | 74.2% |
| 10 | SEA | 5.49 | 5.49 | 71% |
| 11 | PIT | 4.11 | 4.11 | 67.7% |
| 12 | DAL | 0.96 | 0.96 | 64.5% |
| 13 | PHI | 0.94 | 0.94 | 61.3% |
| 14 | MIN | 0.31 | 0.31 | 58.1% |
| 15 | TEN | 0.01 | 0.01 | 54.8% |
| 16 | CAR | -0.39 | -0.39 | 51.6% |
| 17 | ATL | -0.79 | -0.79 | 48.4% |
| 18 | GB | -1.50 | -1.50 | 45.2% |
| 19 | DEN | -1.66 | -1.66 | 41.9% |
| 20 | DET | -2.63 | -2.63 | 38.7% |
| 21 | CLE | -2.75 | -2.75 | 35.5% |
| 22 | NYG | -3.19 | -3.19 | 32.3% |
| 23 | JAX | -4.75 | -4.75 | 29% |
| 24 | TB | -4.93 | -4.93 | 25.8% |
| 25 | WAS | -5.41 | -5.41 | 22.6% |
| 26 | SF | -6.02 | -6.02 | 19.4% |
| 27 | CIN | -6.31 | -6.31 | 16.1% |
| 28 | BUF | -7.05 | -7.05 | 12.9% |
| 29 | NYJ | -7.17 | -7.17 | 9.7% |
| 30 | MIA | -8.63 | -8.63 | 6.5% |
| 31 | LV | -12.50 | -12.50 | 3.2% |
| 32 | ARI | -14.30 | -14.30 | 0% |
Does NET EPA (Off + Def) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 974–604–37 ATS (61.7%) across 2020–2025, #1 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (168–86, 66.1%); its worst 2022 (154–110, 58.3%).
For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 168–86–2 | 66.1% |
| 2021 | 272 | 161–109–2 | 59.6% |
| 2022 | 271 | 154–110–7 | 58.3% |
| 2023 | 272 | 155–103–14 | 60.1% |
| 2024 | 272 | 170–93–9 | 64.6% |
| 2025 | 272 | 166–103–3 | 61.7% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year leader
BUF · 10.32
Multi-year laggard
NYJ · -8.32
Biggest improver
JAX · +4.19/yr
Biggest decliner
TEN · −2.59/yr
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 10.32 | −0.48 | 9.37 | 13.40 | 12.18 | 9.27 | 11.20 | 7.93 | 8.90 |
| 2 | KC | 6.18 | −0.88 | 8.08 | 8.38 | 9.29 | 5.32 | 4.38 | 2.20 | 5.58 |
| 3 | SF | 5.55 | +0.55 | -1.17 | 4.34 | 12.08 | 13.15 | -3.17 | 4.99 | 8.62 |
| 4 | BAL | 5.33 | −1.28 | 12.46 | -0.81 | 3.29 | 13.74 | 10.73 | 1.22 | -3.30 |
| 5 | GB | 4.52 | −0.87 | 10.36 | 6.08 | -0.30 | 2.51 | 8.94 | 2.55 | 1.50 |
| 6 | TB | 4.29 | −1.14 | 10.10 | 11.06 | -3.36 | 1.71 | 8.14 | -1.75 | 4.14 |
| 7 | SEA | 3.95 | +0.99 | 6.12 | 1.60 | 0.83 | -2.23 | 0.06 | 13.58 | 7.67 |
| 8 | LAR | 3.13 | +0.13 | 6.28 | 6.51 | -5.64 | 1.87 | -1.53 | 11.94 | 2.50 |
| 9 | DAL | 2.77 | −0.87 | -5.77 | 11.89 | 8.61 | 14.04 | -8.09 | -2.67 | 1.41 |
| 10 | PHI | 1.73 | −0.32 | -6.65 | 4.11 | 8.98 | 0.78 | 11.18 | 3.93 | -10.22 |
| 11 | MIN | 1.58 | +1.70 | -4.06 | 0.62 | -1.51 | -1.21 | 7.99 | 0.57 | 8.68 |
| 12 | CIN | 1.17 | +0.77 | -8.42 | 5.52 | 7.26 | -1.13 | 2.82 | -5.26 | 7.40 |
| 13 | PIT | 1.12 | +0.02 | 7.66 | -3.09 | -2.38 | -1.27 | 2.56 | 0.72 | 3.65 |
| 14 | DET | 1.06 | +3.06 | -10.86 | -10.00 | 1.38 | 4.17 | 14.73 | 4.38 | 3.64 |
| 15 | NE | 0.92 | +0.18 | -1.81 | 10.64 | 1.77 | -9.31 | -9.24 | 11.34 | 3.05 |
| 16 | NO | -0.08 | −2.38 | 9.99 | 1.93 | -1.23 | 5.15 | -4.59 | -5.73 | -6.05 |
| 17 | DEN | -0.32 | +1.87 | -8.61 | 0.74 | -5.31 | -3.98 | 8.23 | 5.54 | 1.14 |
| 18 | IND | -0.74 | −1.56 | 7.24 | 5.75 | -8.90 | -1.75 | -3.63 | 4.07 | -7.97 |
| 19 | MIA | -0.90 | −2.01 | 5.20 | -2.23 | 0.53 | 7.37 | -1.01 | -4.93 | -11.21 |
| 20 | JAX | -1.14 | +4.19 | -13.55 | -14.39 | 4.15 | 0.66 | -7.94 | 9.39 | 13.71 |
| 21 | LAC | -1.30 | −0.57 | -3.40 | 0.77 | -0.21 | -3.41 | 7.23 | 1.77 | -11.84 |
| 22 | CHI | -1.90 | +1.49 | -0.28 | -6.65 | -9.18 | -0.58 | -5.14 | 2.20 | 6.35 |
| 23 | HOU | -2.63 | +2.12 | -5.62 | -11.94 | -8.59 | 1.47 | 0.33 | 8.20 | -2.24 |
| 24 | ARI | -3.34 | −2.10 | 3.35 | 6.44 | -7.72 | -8.54 | 1.10 | -9.26 | -8.76 |
| 25 | ATL | -3.49 | +0.24 | -0.59 | -10.04 | -1.74 | -3.59 | -2.66 | -3.27 | -2.54 |
| 26 | CLE | -3.62 | −1.11 | -1.05 | -2.18 | -1.16 | 2.75 | -12.11 | -7.05 | -4.51 |
| 27 | WAS | -3.66 | −0.09 | -0.11 | -6.80 | -1.51 | -13.19 | 6.52 | -6.97 | -3.52 |
| 28 | LV | -4.69 | −0.67 | -3.29 | -4.46 | -1.38 | -0.42 | -8.67 | -13.44 | -1.16 |
| 29 | TEN | -4.79 | −2.59 | 3.32 | 3.81 | -4.34 | -5.23 | -10.23 | -13.54 | -7.31 |
| 30 | NYG | -5.61 | +0.78 | -5.17 | -10.26 | -1.13 | -9.68 | -10.09 | -3.48 | 0.55 |
| 31 | CAR | -6.35 | −0.09 | -3.73 | -6.76 | -1.39 | -12.18 | -13.71 | -4.95 | -1.71 |
| 32 | NYJ | -8.32 | +1.36 | -15.39 | -13.99 | -2.18 | -6.26 | -4.34 | -14.22 | -1.84 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | -13.55 | -14.39 | 4.15 | 0.66 | -7.94 | 9.39 | 13.71 |
| BUF | 9.37 | 13.40 | 12.18 | 9.27 | 11.20 | 7.93 | 8.90 |
| MIN | -4.06 | 0.62 | -1.51 | -1.21 | 7.99 | 0.57 | 8.68 |
| SF | -1.17 | 4.34 | 12.08 | 13.15 | -3.17 | 4.99 | 8.62 |
| SEA | 6.12 | 1.60 | 0.83 | -2.23 | 0.06 | 13.58 | 7.67 |
| CIN | -8.42 | 5.52 | 7.26 | -1.13 | 2.82 | -5.26 | 7.40 |
| CHI | -0.28 | -6.65 | -9.18 | -0.58 | -5.14 | 2.20 | 6.35 |
| KC | 8.08 | 8.38 | 9.29 | 5.32 | 4.38 | 2.20 | 5.58 |
| TB | 10.10 | 11.06 | -3.36 | 1.71 | 8.14 | -1.75 | 4.14 |
| PIT | 7.66 | -3.09 | -2.38 | -1.27 | 2.56 | 0.72 | 3.65 |
| DET | -10.86 | -10.00 | 1.38 | 4.17 | 14.73 | 4.38 | 3.64 |
| NE | -1.81 | 10.64 | 1.77 | -9.31 | -9.24 | 11.34 | 3.05 |
| LAR | 6.28 | 6.51 | -5.64 | 1.87 | -1.53 | 11.94 | 2.50 |
| GB | 10.36 | 6.08 | -0.30 | 2.51 | 8.94 | 2.55 | 1.50 |
| DAL | -5.77 | 11.89 | 8.61 | 14.04 | -8.09 | -2.67 | 1.41 |
| DEN | -8.61 | 0.74 | -5.31 | -3.98 | 8.23 | 5.54 | 1.14 |
| NYG | -5.17 | -10.26 | -1.13 | -9.68 | -10.09 | -3.48 | 0.55 |
| LV | -3.29 | -4.46 | -1.38 | -0.42 | -8.67 | -13.44 | -1.16 |
| CAR | -3.73 | -6.76 | -1.39 | -12.18 | -13.71 | -4.95 | -1.71 |
| NYJ | -15.39 | -13.99 | -2.18 | -6.26 | -4.34 | -14.22 | -1.84 |
| HOU | -5.62 | -11.94 | -8.59 | 1.47 | 0.33 | 8.20 | -2.24 |
| ATL | -0.59 | -10.04 | -1.74 | -3.59 | -2.66 | -3.27 | -2.54 |
| BAL | 12.46 | -0.81 | 3.29 | 13.74 | 10.73 | 1.22 | -3.30 |
| WAS | -0.11 | -6.80 | -1.51 | -13.19 | 6.52 | -6.97 | -3.52 |
| CLE | -1.05 | -2.18 | -1.16 | 2.75 | -12.11 | -7.05 | -4.51 |
| NO | 9.99 | 1.93 | -1.23 | 5.15 | -4.59 | -5.73 | -6.05 |
| TEN | 3.32 | 3.81 | -4.34 | -5.23 | -10.23 | -13.54 | -7.31 |
| IND | 7.24 | 5.75 | -8.90 | -1.75 | -3.63 | 4.07 | -7.97 |
| ARI | 3.35 | 6.44 | -7.72 | -8.54 | 1.10 | -9.26 | -8.76 |
| PHI | -6.65 | 4.11 | 8.98 | 0.78 | 11.18 | 3.93 | -10.22 |
| MIA | 5.20 | -2.23 | 0.53 | 7.37 | -1.01 | -4.93 | -11.21 |
| LAC | -3.40 | 0.77 | -0.21 | -3.41 | 7.23 | 1.77 | -11.84 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- net_epa
- Side
- net_epa
- Family
- NET (Off + Def)
- Data source
- N only
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.