What NET EPA (Off + Def) is

Net EPA: the expected points this team's offense added plus the expected points its defense took away from opponents — the two sides of the ball valued play by play, in one number. The situation-aware summary of a whole team; a strong positive number is a team that wins the down-and-distance battle on both sides.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: N.

In 2019 the Ravens led at 17.93; the league average was 0.00.

League snapshot — 2019

League leader

BAL · 17.93

League average

0.00

Best to worst

31.83

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BAL	17.93	16
2	NE	14.05	16
3	SF	12.43	16
4	KC	10.65	16
5	NO	8.63	16
6	DAL	7.88	16
7	MIN	7.52	16
8	TEN	4.87	16
9	GB	4.56	16
10	BUF	4.44	16
11	LAR	2.34	16
12	PHI	2.13	16
13	TB	0.77	16
14	SEA	0.44	16
15	HOU	-0.30	16
16	PIT	-0.57	16
17	LAC	-0.85	16
18	IND	-1.02	16
19	ATL	-1.13	16
20	CHI	-1.22	16
21	DEN	-2.20	16
22	CLE	-3.73	16
23	DET	-5.46	16
24	ARI	-5.74	16
25	NYJ	-6.75	16
26	JAX	-6.85	16
27	LV	-7.83	16
28	NYG	-8.00	16
29	CAR	-10.24	16
30	CIN	-10.51	16
31	WAS	-12.29	16
32	MIA	-13.91	16

At a glance — 2019

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BAL · 17.93

League laggard

MIA · -13.91

League average

0.00

Spread (max − min)

31.83

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BAL	17.93	17.93	100%
2	NE	14.05	14.05	96.8%
3	SF	12.43	12.43	93.5%
4	KC	10.65	10.65	90.3%
5	NO	8.63	8.63	87.1%
6	DAL	7.88	7.88	83.9%
7	MIN	7.52	7.52	80.6%
8	TEN	4.87	4.87	77.4%
9	GB	4.56	4.56	74.2%
10	BUF	4.44	4.44	71%
11	LAR	2.34	2.34	67.7%
12	PHI	2.13	2.13	64.5%
13	TB	0.77	0.77	61.3%
14	SEA	0.44	0.44	58.1%
15	HOU	-0.30	-0.30	54.8%
16	PIT	-0.57	-0.57	51.6%
17	LAC	-0.85	-0.85	48.4%
18	IND	-1.02	-1.02	45.2%
19	ATL	-1.13	-1.13	41.9%
20	CHI	-1.22	-1.22	38.7%
21	DEN	-2.20	-2.20	35.5%
22	CLE	-3.73	-3.73	32.3%
23	DET	-5.46	-5.46	29%
24	ARI	-5.74	-5.74	25.8%
25	NYJ	-6.75	-6.75	22.6%
26	JAX	-6.85	-6.85	19.4%
27	LV	-7.83	-7.83	16.1%
28	NYG	-8.00	-8.00	12.9%
29	CAR	-10.24	-10.24	9.7%
30	CIN	-10.51	-10.51	6.5%
31	WAS	-12.29	-12.29	3.2%
32	MIA	-13.91	-13.91	0%

Does NET EPA (Off + Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 974–604–37 ATS (61.7%) across 2020–2025, #1 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (168–86, 66.1%); its worst 2022 (154–110, 58.3%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	168–86–2	66.1%
2021	272	161–109–2	59.6%
2022	271	154–110–7	58.3%
2023	272	155–103–14	60.1%
2024	272	170–93–9	64.6%
2025	272	166–103–3	61.7%

NET EPA (Off + Def) in 2019 vs 2018

Ravens lead at 17.93 — they ranked #6 last year. Dolphins are last at -13.91 — #30 last year.

The league average is 0.00, the same as last year.

Biggest riser: 49ers, #26 → #3. Biggest faller: Bears, #4 → #20.

Spread between first and last: 31.83; 20 teams are within 7.74 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2019 vs 2018

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

SF · +18.45

Biggest faller

CHI · −11.29

Most consistent

ATL · −0.34

League trend 2019 vs 2018

▼ 0.00

Rank	Team	2019	2018	Δ
1	SF	12.43	-6.02	+18.45
2	BUF	4.44	-7.05	+11.49
3	BAL	17.93	7.60	+10.33
4	ARI	-5.74	-14.30	+8.56
5	MIN	7.52	0.31	+7.21
6	DAL	7.88	0.96	+6.92
7	NE	14.05	7.92	+6.13
8	GB	4.56	-1.50	+6.06
9	TB	0.77	-4.93	+5.69
10	TEN	4.87	0.01	+4.85
11	LV	-7.83	-12.50	+4.67
12	PHI	2.13	0.94	+1.19
13	NYJ	-6.75	-7.17	+0.42
14	ATL	-1.13	-0.79	−0.34
15	DEN	-2.20	-1.66	−0.54
16	KC	10.65	11.33	−0.69
17	CLE	-3.73	-2.75	−0.98
18	JAX	-6.85	-4.75	−2.10
19	NO	8.63	11.16	−2.52
20	DET	-5.46	-2.63	−2.83
21	CIN	-10.51	-6.31	−4.20
22	PIT	-0.57	4.11	−4.68
23	NYG	-8.00	-3.19	−4.81
24	SEA	0.44	5.49	−5.05
25	MIA	-13.91	-8.63	−5.28
26	HOU	-0.30	6.50	−6.80
27	WAS	-12.29	-5.41	−6.88
28	IND	-1.02	6.17	−7.20
29	LAC	-0.85	6.84	−7.69
30	LAR	2.34	10.57	−8.24
31	CAR	-10.24	-0.39	−9.85
32	CHI	-1.22	10.08	−11.29

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.80

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -8.08

Biggest improver

JAX · +4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −3.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.80	−0.86	9.37	13.40	12.18	9.27	11.20	7.93	5.29
2	KC	6.95	−0.30	8.08	8.38	9.29	5.32	4.38	2.20	11.04
3	BAL	6.62	−0.31	12.46	-0.81	3.29	13.74	10.73	1.22	5.70
4	SF	6.18	+1.03	-1.17	4.34	12.08	13.15	-3.17	4.99	13.05
5	GB	4.16	−1.14	10.36	6.08	-0.30	2.51	8.94	2.55	-1.04
6	SEA	3.90	+0.96	6.12	1.60	0.83	-2.23	0.06	13.58	7.34
7	TB	3.27	−1.91	10.10	11.06	-3.36	1.71	8.14	-1.75	-3.00
8	LAR	2.70	−0.20	6.28	6.51	-5.64	1.87	-1.53	11.94	-0.55
9	DAL	2.62	−0.98	-5.77	11.89	8.61	14.04	-8.09	-2.67	0.34
10	PHI	2.47	+0.24	-6.65	4.11	8.98	0.78	11.18	3.93	-5.03
11	MIN	1.94	+1.97	-4.06	0.62	-1.51	-1.21	7.99	0.57	11.16
12	DET	1.16	+3.13	-10.86	-10.00	1.38	4.17	14.73	4.38	4.31
13	NE	1.08	+0.30	-1.81	10.64	1.77	-9.31	-9.24	11.34	4.16
14	CIN	0.79	+0.48	-8.42	5.52	7.26	-1.13	2.82	-5.26	4.75
15	PIT	0.38	−0.54	7.66	-3.09	-2.38	-1.27	2.56	0.72	-1.55
16	IND	0.19	−0.86	7.24	5.75	-8.90	-1.75	-3.63	4.07	-1.46
17	NO	-0.50	−2.70	9.99	1.93	-1.23	5.15	-4.59	-5.73	-8.99
18	DEN	-0.90	+1.44	-8.61	0.74	-5.31	-3.98	8.23	5.54	-2.93
19	LAC	-1.13	−0.44	-3.40	0.77	-0.21	-3.41	7.23	1.77	-10.63
20	JAX	-1.34	+4.03	-13.55	-14.39	4.15	0.66	-7.94	9.39	12.27
21	MIA	-1.40	−2.39	5.20	-2.23	0.53	7.37	-1.01	-4.93	-14.76
22	CHI	-2.11	+1.32	-0.28	-6.65	-9.18	-0.58	-5.14	2.20	4.83
23	HOU	-2.54	+2.18	-5.62	-11.94	-8.59	1.47	0.33	8.20	-1.65
24	ATL	-3.08	+0.55	-0.59	-10.04	-1.74	-3.59	-2.66	-3.27	0.34
25	CLE	-3.49	−1.02	-1.05	-2.18	-1.16	2.75	-12.11	-7.05	-3.66
26	ARI	-3.78	−2.44	3.35	6.44	-7.72	-8.54	1.10	-9.26	-11.87
27	WAS	-4.24	−0.53	-0.11	-6.80	-1.51	-13.19	6.52	-6.97	-7.61
28	LV	-4.26	−0.35	-3.29	-4.46	-1.38	-0.42	-8.67	-13.44	1.87
29	TEN	-5.58	−3.18	3.32	3.81	-4.34	-5.23	-10.23	-13.54	-12.83
30	CAR	-5.59	+0.48	-3.73	-6.76	-1.39	-12.18	-13.71	-4.95	3.62
31	NYG	-5.60	+0.79	-5.17	-10.26	-1.13	-9.68	-10.09	-3.48	0.64
32	NYJ	-8.08	+1.53	-15.39	-13.99	-2.18	-6.26	-4.34	-14.22	-0.20

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
SF	-1.17	4.34	12.08	13.15	-3.17	4.99	13.05
JAX	-13.55	-14.39	4.15	0.66	-7.94	9.39	12.27
MIN	-4.06	0.62	-1.51	-1.21	7.99	0.57	11.16
KC	8.08	8.38	9.29	5.32	4.38	2.20	11.04
SEA	6.12	1.60	0.83	-2.23	0.06	13.58	7.34
BAL	12.46	-0.81	3.29	13.74	10.73	1.22	5.70
BUF	9.37	13.40	12.18	9.27	11.20	7.93	5.29
CHI	-0.28	-6.65	-9.18	-0.58	-5.14	2.20	4.83
CIN	-8.42	5.52	7.26	-1.13	2.82	-5.26	4.75
DET	-10.86	-10.00	1.38	4.17	14.73	4.38	4.31
NE	-1.81	10.64	1.77	-9.31	-9.24	11.34	4.16
CAR	-3.73	-6.76	-1.39	-12.18	-13.71	-4.95	3.62
LV	-3.29	-4.46	-1.38	-0.42	-8.67	-13.44	1.87
NYG	-5.17	-10.26	-1.13	-9.68	-10.09	-3.48	0.64
ATL	-0.59	-10.04	-1.74	-3.59	-2.66	-3.27	0.34
DAL	-5.77	11.89	8.61	14.04	-8.09	-2.67	0.34
NYJ	-15.39	-13.99	-2.18	-6.26	-4.34	-14.22	-0.20
LAR	6.28	6.51	-5.64	1.87	-1.53	11.94	-0.55
GB	10.36	6.08	-0.30	2.51	8.94	2.55	-1.04
IND	7.24	5.75	-8.90	-1.75	-3.63	4.07	-1.46
PIT	7.66	-3.09	-2.38	-1.27	2.56	0.72	-1.55
HOU	-5.62	-11.94	-8.59	1.47	0.33	8.20	-1.65
DEN	-8.61	0.74	-5.31	-3.98	8.23	5.54	-2.93
TB	10.10	11.06	-3.36	1.71	8.14	-1.75	-3.00
CLE	-1.05	-2.18	-1.16	2.75	-12.11	-7.05	-3.66
PHI	-6.65	4.11	8.98	0.78	11.18	3.93	-5.03
WAS	-0.11	-6.80	-1.51	-13.19	6.52	-6.97	-7.61
NO	9.99	1.93	-1.23	5.15	-4.59	-5.73	-8.99
LAC	-3.40	0.77	-0.21	-3.41	7.23	1.77	-10.63
ARI	3.35	6.44	-7.72	-8.54	1.10	-9.26	-11.87
TEN	3.32	3.81	-4.34	-5.23	-10.23	-13.54	-12.83
MIA	5.20	-2.23	0.53	7.37	-1.01	-4.93	-14.76

NET EPA (Off + Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (11.33), 2019 Ravens (17.93).

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 17.93; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -14.30.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2019.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_epa
Side: net_epa
Family: NET (Off + Def)
Data source: N only
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.