What NET EPA (Off + Def) is

Net EPA: the expected points this team's offense added plus the expected points its defense took away from opponents — the two sides of the ball valued play by play, in one number. The situation-aware summary of a whole team; a strong positive number is a team that wins the down-and-distance battle on both sides.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: N.

In 2021 the Bills led at 13.40; the league average was 0.00.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

BUF · 13.40

League average

0.00

Best to worst

27.79

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	13.40	17
2	DAL	11.89	17
3	TB	11.06	17
4	NE	10.64	17
5	KC	8.38	17
6	LAR	6.51	17
7	ARI	6.44	17
8	GB	6.08	17
9	IND	5.75	17
10	CIN	5.52	17
11	SF	4.34	17
12	PHI	4.11	17
13	TEN	3.81	17
14	NO	1.93	17
15	SEA	1.60	17
16	LAC	0.77	17
17	DEN	0.74	17
18	MIN	0.62	17
19	BAL	-0.81	17
20	CLE	-2.18	17
21	MIA	-2.23	17
22	PIT	-3.09	17
23	LV	-4.46	17
24	CHI	-6.65	17
25	CAR	-6.76	17
26	WAS	-6.80	17
27	DET	-10.00	17
28	ATL	-10.04	17
29	NYG	-10.26	17
30	HOU	-11.94	17
31	NYJ	-13.99	17
32	JAX	-14.39	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 13.40

League laggard

JAX · -14.39

League average

0.00

Spread (max − min)

27.79

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	13.40	13.40	100%
2	DAL	11.89	11.89	96.8%
3	TB	11.06	11.06	93.5%
4	NE	10.64	10.64	90.3%
5	KC	8.38	8.38	87.1%
6	LAR	6.51	6.51	83.9%
7	ARI	6.44	6.44	80.6%
8	GB	6.08	6.08	77.4%
9	IND	5.75	5.75	74.2%
10	CIN	5.52	5.52	71%
11	SF	4.34	4.34	67.7%
12	PHI	4.11	4.11	64.5%
13	TEN	3.81	3.81	61.3%
14	NO	1.93	1.93	58.1%
15	SEA	1.60	1.60	54.8%
16	LAC	0.77	0.77	51.6%
17	DEN	0.74	0.74	48.4%
18	MIN	0.62	0.62	45.2%
19	BAL	-0.81	-0.81	41.9%
20	CLE	-2.18	-2.18	38.7%
21	MIA	-2.23	-2.23	35.5%
22	PIT	-3.09	-3.09	32.3%
23	LV	-4.46	-4.46	29%
24	CHI	-6.65	-6.65	25.8%
25	CAR	-6.76	-6.76	22.6%
26	WAS	-6.80	-6.80	19.4%
27	DET	-10.00	-10.00	16.1%
28	ATL	-10.04	-10.04	12.9%
29	NYG	-10.26	-10.26	9.7%
30	HOU	-11.94	-11.94	6.5%
31	NYJ	-13.99	-13.99	3.2%
32	JAX	-14.39	-14.39	0%

Does NET EPA (Off + Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 974–604–37 ATS (61.7%) across 2020–2025, #1 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (168–86, 66.1%); its worst 2022 (154–110, 58.3%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	168–86–2	66.1%
2021	272	161–109–2	59.6%
2022	271	154–110–7	58.3%
2023	272	155–103–14	60.1%
2024	272	170–93–9	64.6%
2025	272	166–103–3	61.7%

NET EPA (Off + Def) in 2021 vs 2020

Bills lead at 13.40 — they ranked #5 last year. Jaguars are last at -14.39 — #31 last year.

The league average is 0.00, the same as last year.

Biggest riser: Cowboys, #26 → #2. Biggest faller: Ravens, #1 → #19.

Spread between first and last: 27.79; 21 teams are within 7.70 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DAL · +17.65

Biggest faller

BAL · −13.27

Most consistent

LAR · +0.23

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ 0.00

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	DAL	11.89	-5.77	+17.65
2	CIN	5.52	-8.42	+13.93
3	NE	10.64	-1.81	+12.45
4	PHI	4.11	-6.65	+10.77
5	DEN	0.74	-8.61	+9.35
6	SF	4.34	-1.17	+5.51
7	MIN	0.62	-4.06	+4.68
8	LAC	0.77	-3.40	+4.17
9	BUF	13.40	9.37	+4.03
10	ARI	6.44	3.35	+3.09
11	NYJ	-13.99	-15.39	+1.39
12	TB	11.06	10.10	+0.97
13	DET	-10.00	-10.86	+0.86
14	TEN	3.81	3.32	+0.49
15	KC	8.38	8.08	+0.31
16	LAR	6.51	6.28	+0.23
17	JAX	-14.39	-13.55	−0.84
18	CLE	-2.18	-1.05	−1.14
19	LV	-4.46	-3.29	−1.16
20	IND	5.75	7.24	−1.49
21	CAR	-6.76	-3.73	−3.03
22	GB	6.08	10.36	−4.28
23	SEA	1.60	6.12	−4.52
24	NYG	-10.26	-5.17	−5.09
25	HOU	-11.94	-5.62	−6.33
26	CHI	-6.65	-0.28	−6.36
27	WAS	-6.80	-0.11	−6.69
28	MIA	-2.23	5.20	−7.43
29	NO	1.93	9.99	−8.06
30	ATL	-10.04	-0.59	−9.45
31	PIT	-3.09	7.66	−10.75
32	BAL	-0.81	12.46	−13.27

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.80

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -8.08

Biggest improver

JAX · +4.03/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −3.18/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.80	−0.86	9.37	13.40	12.18	9.27	11.20	7.93	5.29
2	KC	6.95	−0.30	8.08	8.38	9.29	5.32	4.38	2.20	11.04
3	BAL	6.62	−0.31	12.46	-0.81	3.29	13.74	10.73	1.22	5.70
4	SF	6.18	+1.03	-1.17	4.34	12.08	13.15	-3.17	4.99	13.05
5	GB	4.16	−1.14	10.36	6.08	-0.30	2.51	8.94	2.55	-1.04
6	SEA	3.90	+0.96	6.12	1.60	0.83	-2.23	0.06	13.58	7.34
7	TB	3.27	−1.91	10.10	11.06	-3.36	1.71	8.14	-1.75	-3.00
8	LAR	2.70	−0.20	6.28	6.51	-5.64	1.87	-1.53	11.94	-0.55
9	DAL	2.62	−0.98	-5.77	11.89	8.61	14.04	-8.09	-2.67	0.34
10	PHI	2.47	+0.24	-6.65	4.11	8.98	0.78	11.18	3.93	-5.03
11	MIN	1.94	+1.97	-4.06	0.62	-1.51	-1.21	7.99	0.57	11.16
12	DET	1.16	+3.13	-10.86	-10.00	1.38	4.17	14.73	4.38	4.31
13	NE	1.08	+0.30	-1.81	10.64	1.77	-9.31	-9.24	11.34	4.16
14	CIN	0.79	+0.48	-8.42	5.52	7.26	-1.13	2.82	-5.26	4.75
15	PIT	0.38	−0.54	7.66	-3.09	-2.38	-1.27	2.56	0.72	-1.55
16	IND	0.19	−0.86	7.24	5.75	-8.90	-1.75	-3.63	4.07	-1.46
17	NO	-0.50	−2.70	9.99	1.93	-1.23	5.15	-4.59	-5.73	-8.99
18	DEN	-0.90	+1.44	-8.61	0.74	-5.31	-3.98	8.23	5.54	-2.93
19	LAC	-1.13	−0.44	-3.40	0.77	-0.21	-3.41	7.23	1.77	-10.63
20	JAX	-1.34	+4.03	-13.55	-14.39	4.15	0.66	-7.94	9.39	12.27
21	MIA	-1.40	−2.39	5.20	-2.23	0.53	7.37	-1.01	-4.93	-14.76
22	CHI	-2.11	+1.32	-0.28	-6.65	-9.18	-0.58	-5.14	2.20	4.83
23	HOU	-2.54	+2.18	-5.62	-11.94	-8.59	1.47	0.33	8.20	-1.65
24	ATL	-3.08	+0.55	-0.59	-10.04	-1.74	-3.59	-2.66	-3.27	0.34
25	CLE	-3.49	−1.02	-1.05	-2.18	-1.16	2.75	-12.11	-7.05	-3.66
26	ARI	-3.78	−2.44	3.35	6.44	-7.72	-8.54	1.10	-9.26	-11.87
27	WAS	-4.24	−0.53	-0.11	-6.80	-1.51	-13.19	6.52	-6.97	-7.61
28	LV	-4.26	−0.35	-3.29	-4.46	-1.38	-0.42	-8.67	-13.44	1.87
29	TEN	-5.58	−3.18	3.32	3.81	-4.34	-5.23	-10.23	-13.54	-12.83
30	CAR	-5.59	+0.48	-3.73	-6.76	-1.39	-12.18	-13.71	-4.95	3.62
31	NYG	-5.60	+0.79	-5.17	-10.26	-1.13	-9.68	-10.09	-3.48	0.64
32	NYJ	-8.08	+1.53	-15.39	-13.99	-2.18	-6.26	-4.34	-14.22	-0.20

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	9.37	13.40	12.18	9.27	11.20	7.93	5.29
DAL	-5.77	11.89	8.61	14.04	-8.09	-2.67	0.34
TB	10.10	11.06	-3.36	1.71	8.14	-1.75	-3.00
NE	-1.81	10.64	1.77	-9.31	-9.24	11.34	4.16
KC	8.08	8.38	9.29	5.32	4.38	2.20	11.04
LAR	6.28	6.51	-5.64	1.87	-1.53	11.94	-0.55
ARI	3.35	6.44	-7.72	-8.54	1.10	-9.26	-11.87
GB	10.36	6.08	-0.30	2.51	8.94	2.55	-1.04
IND	7.24	5.75	-8.90	-1.75	-3.63	4.07	-1.46
CIN	-8.42	5.52	7.26	-1.13	2.82	-5.26	4.75
SF	-1.17	4.34	12.08	13.15	-3.17	4.99	13.05
PHI	-6.65	4.11	8.98	0.78	11.18	3.93	-5.03
TEN	3.32	3.81	-4.34	-5.23	-10.23	-13.54	-12.83
NO	9.99	1.93	-1.23	5.15	-4.59	-5.73	-8.99
SEA	6.12	1.60	0.83	-2.23	0.06	13.58	7.34
LAC	-3.40	0.77	-0.21	-3.41	7.23	1.77	-10.63
DEN	-8.61	0.74	-5.31	-3.98	8.23	5.54	-2.93
MIN	-4.06	0.62	-1.51	-1.21	7.99	0.57	11.16
BAL	12.46	-0.81	3.29	13.74	10.73	1.22	5.70
CLE	-1.05	-2.18	-1.16	2.75	-12.11	-7.05	-3.66
MIA	5.20	-2.23	0.53	7.37	-1.01	-4.93	-14.76
PIT	7.66	-3.09	-2.38	-1.27	2.56	0.72	-1.55
LV	-3.29	-4.46	-1.38	-0.42	-8.67	-13.44	1.87
CHI	-0.28	-6.65	-9.18	-0.58	-5.14	2.20	4.83
CAR	-3.73	-6.76	-1.39	-12.18	-13.71	-4.95	3.62
WAS	-0.11	-6.80	-1.51	-13.19	6.52	-6.97	-7.61
DET	-10.86	-10.00	1.38	4.17	14.73	4.38	4.31
ATL	-0.59	-10.04	-1.74	-3.59	-2.66	-3.27	0.34
NYG	-5.17	-10.26	-1.13	-9.68	-10.09	-3.48	0.64
HOU	-5.62	-11.94	-8.59	1.47	0.33	8.20	-1.65
NYJ	-15.39	-13.99	-2.18	-6.26	-4.34	-14.22	-0.20
JAX	-13.55	-14.39	4.15	0.66	-7.94	9.39	12.27

NET EPA (Off + Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (11.33), 2019 Ravens (17.93), 2020 Ravens (12.46), 2021 Bills (13.40).

Ravens have led this stat 2 of 4 seasons.

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 17.93; the worst Jets 2020 at -15.39.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_epa
Side: net_epa
Family: NET (Off + Def)
Data source: N only
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.