What Exp pts pass is

Expected points added by the passing game: for every pass play, the change in the team's expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. A deep completion on third-and-long is worth far more here than the same yards on a meaningless play, so it measures what the passing game actually did to the scoreboard, not how many yards it piled up.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Chiefs led at 9.97; the league average was -0.25.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

KC · 9.97

League average

-0.25

Best to worst

17.07

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	KC	9.97	17
2	DET	5.81	17
3	SF	5.38	17
4	BUF	5.22	16
5	CIN	5.01	16
6	JAX	4.20	17
7	MIA	2.95	17
8	PHI	2.61	17
9	TB	1.90	17
10	MIN	1.66	17
11	DAL	1.23	17
12	LAC	0.65	17
13	NO	0.45	17
14	LV	0.35	17
15	SEA	-0.15	17
16	PIT	-0.25	17
17	NYG	-0.33	17
18	ATL	-0.76	17
19	GB	-0.87	17
20	CLE	-1.25	17
21	TEN	-1.85	17
22	BAL	-1.88	17
23	NE	-2.16	17
24	CAR	-2.80	17
25	WAS	-3.52	17
26	LAR	-4.31	17
27	NYJ	-4.49	17
28	DEN	-5.06	17
29	ARI	-5.54	17
30	CHI	-5.99	17
31	HOU	-6.96	17
32	IND	-7.09	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

KC · 9.97

League laggard

IND · -7.09

League average

-0.25

Spread (max − min)

17.07

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	KC	9.97	10.22	100%
2	DET	5.81	6.05	96.8%
3	SF	5.38	5.63	93.5%
4	BUF	5.22	5.47	90.3%
5	CIN	5.01	5.25	87.1%
6	JAX	4.20	4.44	83.9%
7	MIA	2.95	3.20	80.6%
8	PHI	2.61	2.86	77.4%
9	TB	1.90	2.15	74.2%
10	MIN	1.66	1.91	71%
11	DAL	1.23	1.48	67.7%
12	LAC	0.65	0.89	64.5%
13	NO	0.45	0.69	61.3%
14	LV	0.35	0.59	58.1%
15	SEA	-0.15	0.10	54.8%
16	PIT	-0.25	0.00	51.6%
17	NYG	-0.33	-0.08	48.4%
18	ATL	-0.76	-0.51	45.2%
19	GB	-0.87	-0.62	41.9%
20	CLE	-1.25	-1.01	38.7%
21	TEN	-1.85	-1.60	35.5%
22	BAL	-1.88	-1.64	32.3%
23	NE	-2.16	-1.92	29%
24	CAR	-2.80	-2.55	25.8%
25	WAS	-3.52	-3.28	22.6%
26	LAR	-4.31	-4.06	19.4%
27	NYJ	-4.49	-4.25	16.1%
28	DEN	-5.06	-4.82	12.9%
29	ARI	-5.54	-5.30	9.7%
30	CHI	-5.99	-5.74	6.5%
31	HOU	-6.96	-6.72	3.2%
32	IND	-7.09	-6.85	0%

Does Exp pts pass matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 877–701–37 ATS (55.6%) across 2020–2025, #55 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2023 (136–122, 52.7%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	151–119–2	55.9%
2022	271	148–116–7	56.1%
2023	272	136–122–14	52.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	144–125–3	53.5%

Exp pts pass in 2022 vs 2021

Chiefs lead at 9.97 — they ranked #2 last year. Colts are last at -7.09 — #18 last year.

The league average is -0.25, down 0.99 from 0.74 last year.

Biggest riser: Jaguars, #27 → #6. Biggest faller: Rams, #5 → #26.

Spread between first and last: 17.07; 19 teams are within 4.03 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

JAX · +8.23

Biggest faller

LAR · −10.68

Most consistent

SF · +0.06

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▼ -0.99

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	JAX	4.20	-4.03	+8.23
2	NYG	-0.33	-7.83	+7.51
3	DET	5.81	-1.69	+7.50
4	CAR	-2.80	-8.11	+5.31
5	PIT	-0.25	-3.99	+3.74
6	MIA	2.95	-0.46	+3.42
7	NO	0.45	-2.23	+2.68
8	KC	9.97	7.74	+2.24
9	ATL	-0.76	-2.36	+1.60
10	PHI	2.61	1.50	+1.11
11	BUF	5.22	4.32	+0.90
12	NYJ	-4.49	-4.98	+0.48
13	CIN	5.01	4.72	+0.28
14	CLE	-1.25	-1.52	+0.26
15	SF	5.38	5.32	+0.06
16	SEA	-0.15	0.27	−0.41
17	CHI	-5.99	-5.44	−0.54
18	WAS	-3.52	-2.87	−0.66
19	LV	0.35	1.26	−0.91
20	MIN	1.66	3.02	−1.36
21	BAL	-1.88	-0.39	−1.49
22	HOU	-6.96	-4.34	−2.63
23	TEN	-1.85	0.88	−2.73
24	LAC	0.65	6.10	−5.46
25	NE	-2.16	3.34	−5.51
26	DAL	1.23	7.14	−5.91
27	TB	1.90	8.02	−6.12
28	IND	-7.09	0.23	−7.32
29	DEN	-5.06	2.27	−7.34
30	GB	-0.87	6.95	−7.82
31	ARI	-5.54	4.46	−10.00
32	LAR	-4.31	6.37	−10.68

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 6.33

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -4.44

Biggest improver

DET · +1.77/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	6.33	−0.22	10.49	4.32	5.22	4.33	7.81	5.11	7.06
2	SF	5.99	+0.95	2.27	5.32	5.38	8.15	3.78	5.63	11.43
3	KC	5.90	−1.22	11.50	7.74	9.97	0.68	3.47	1.48	6.45
4	DET	5.42	+1.77	1.93	-1.69	5.81	4.29	9.46	6.12	12.03
5	GB	5.33	−0.53	10.90	6.95	-0.87	4.99	4.03	6.99	4.30
6	DAL	3.28	+0.79	-1.71	7.14	1.23	6.28	-4.23	6.16	8.09
7	CIN	2.90	+0.24	-0.27	4.72	5.01	0.48	5.91	-1.06	5.51
8	LAR	2.90	+0.85	0.68	6.37	-4.31	2.05	2.00	8.32	5.18
9	TB	2.66	−1.95	7.49	8.02	1.90	2.06	6.33	-0.93	-6.25
10	BAL	2.63	+0.82	2.42	-0.39	-1.88	2.91	9.81	-0.96	6.52
11	SEA	1.55	−0.10	4.48	0.27	-0.15	1.86	-0.58	3.34	1.65
12	JAX	0.85	+1.48	-2.91	-4.03	4.20	-1.27	-0.51	2.10	8.40
13	MIA	0.82	−0.91	1.93	-0.46	2.95	5.81	2.30	-0.28	-6.47
14	LAC	0.64	−1.82	5.03	6.10	0.65	-1.03	3.14	-1.99	-7.42
15	MIN	0.41	−1.45	5.17	3.02	1.66	-0.87	2.57	-6.06	-2.64
16	PHI	0.25	+0.23	-5.74	1.50	2.61	2.44	3.32	1.37	-3.77
17	HOU	0.07	+0.17	7.07	-4.34	-6.96	1.69	-1.26	1.30	2.96
18	NE	-0.20	+1.01	-2.60	3.34	-2.16	-9.19	-3.41	9.25	3.34
19	LV	-0.31	−0.37	3.07	1.26	0.35	-2.88	-3.67	-6.36	6.04
20	ATL	-0.56	−0.48	3.73	-2.36	-0.76	-2.89	1.73	-0.44	-2.90
21	ARI	-0.58	−0.08	0.44	4.46	-5.54	-5.93	2.55	0.10	-0.13
22	NO	-0.65	−0.82	4.20	-2.23	0.45	1.16	-3.50	-2.97	-1.68
23	DEN	-0.94	+0.61	-4.70	2.27	-5.06	-1.87	1.37	3.14	-1.76
24	PIT	-1.08	−0.43	3.24	-3.99	-0.25	-3.15	-0.26	0.98	-4.10
25	IND	-1.17	−0.92	5.30	0.23	-7.09	-0.29	-2.33	1.91	-5.94
26	WAS	-1.96	+0.91	-4.73	-2.87	-3.52	-6.08	4.32	-0.22	-0.57
27	TEN	-2.08	−2.24	7.38	0.88	-1.85	-1.87	-4.23	-8.09	-6.75
28	CAR	-2.31	+1.35	0.48	-8.11	-2.80	-9.56	-3.54	-1.61	8.95
29	CHI	-2.52	+0.89	-1.38	-5.44	-5.99	-4.60	-3.69	2.83	0.64
30	NYG	-3.01	+0.92	-2.79	-7.83	-0.33	-6.83	-5.54	-0.27	2.53
31	CLE	-3.68	−1.53	5.18	-1.52	-1.25	-7.18	-10.57	-10.33	-0.12
32	NYJ	-4.44	+0.87	-5.87	-4.98	-4.49	-11.59	0.52	-5.88	1.22

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
KC	11.50	7.74	9.97	0.68	3.47	1.48	6.45
DET	1.93	-1.69	5.81	4.29	9.46	6.12	12.03
SF	2.27	5.32	5.38	8.15	3.78	5.63	11.43
BUF	10.49	4.32	5.22	4.33	7.81	5.11	7.06
CIN	-0.27	4.72	5.01	0.48	5.91	-1.06	5.51
JAX	-2.91	-4.03	4.20	-1.27	-0.51	2.10	8.40
MIA	1.93	-0.46	2.95	5.81	2.30	-0.28	-6.47
PHI	-5.74	1.50	2.61	2.44	3.32	1.37	-3.77
TB	7.49	8.02	1.90	2.06	6.33	-0.93	-6.25
MIN	5.17	3.02	1.66	-0.87	2.57	-6.06	-2.64
DAL	-1.71	7.14	1.23	6.28	-4.23	6.16	8.09
LAC	5.03	6.10	0.65	-1.03	3.14	-1.99	-7.42
NO	4.20	-2.23	0.45	1.16	-3.50	-2.97	-1.68
LV	3.07	1.26	0.35	-2.88	-3.67	-6.36	6.04
SEA	4.48	0.27	-0.15	1.86	-0.58	3.34	1.65
PIT	3.24	-3.99	-0.25	-3.15	-0.26	0.98	-4.10
NYG	-2.79	-7.83	-0.33	-6.83	-5.54	-0.27	2.53
ATL	3.73	-2.36	-0.76	-2.89	1.73	-0.44	-2.90
GB	10.90	6.95	-0.87	4.99	4.03	6.99	4.30
CLE	5.18	-1.52	-1.25	-7.18	-10.57	-10.33	-0.12
TEN	7.38	0.88	-1.85	-1.87	-4.23	-8.09	-6.75
BAL	2.42	-0.39	-1.88	2.91	9.81	-0.96	6.52
NE	-2.60	3.34	-2.16	-9.19	-3.41	9.25	3.34
CAR	0.48	-8.11	-2.80	-9.56	-3.54	-1.61	8.95
WAS	-4.73	-2.87	-3.52	-6.08	4.32	-0.22	-0.57
LAR	0.68	6.37	-4.31	2.05	2.00	8.32	5.18
NYJ	-5.87	-4.98	-4.49	-11.59	0.52	-5.88	1.22
DEN	-4.70	2.27	-5.06	-1.87	1.37	3.14	-1.76
ARI	0.44	4.46	-5.54	-5.93	2.55	0.10	-0.13
CHI	-1.38	-5.44	-5.99	-4.60	-3.69	2.83	0.64
HOU	7.07	-4.34	-6.96	1.69	-1.26	1.30	2.96
IND	5.30	0.23	-7.09	-0.29	-2.33	1.91	-5.94

Exp pts pass since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (13.28), 2019 Ravens (8.56), 2020 Chiefs (11.50), 2021 Buccaneers (8.02), 2022 Chiefs (9.97).

Chiefs have led this stat 3 of 5 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 13.28; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -10.90.

The league average has fallen from 1.35 in 2018 to -0.25 in 2022.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_passing_exp_pts_pass
Side: offensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.