Offensive: Passing · Exp pts pass
P + N
About this stat ↓What Exp pts pass is
Expected points added by the passing game: for every pass play, the change in the team's expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. A deep completion on third-and-long is worth far more here than the same yards on a meaningless play, so it measures what the passing game actually did to the scoreboard, not how many yards it piled up.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2018 the Chiefs led at 13.28; the league average was 1.35.
League snapshot — 2018
League leader
KC · 13.28
League average
1.35
Best to worst
24.18
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 13.28 | 16 |
| 2 | NO | 8.08 | 16 |
| 3 | LAC | 7.35 | 16 |
| 4 | PIT | 7.26 | 16 |
| 5 | LAR | 7.20 | 16 |
| 6 | ATL | 6.29 | 16 |
| 7 | IND | 5.37 | 16 |
| 8 | NE | 5.15 | 16 |
| 9 | TB | 5.03 | 16 |
| 10 | SEA | 4.03 | 16 |
| 11 | PHI | 3.69 | 16 |
| 12 | HOU | 2.86 | 16 |
| 13 | CHI | 2.33 | 16 |
| 14 | NYG | 1.60 | 16 |
| 15 | CAR | 1.58 | 16 |
| 16 | GB | 1.43 | 16 |
| 17 | DAL | 0.90 | 16 |
| 18 | BAL | 0.61 | 16 |
| 19 | CIN | 0.36 | 16 |
| 20 | SF | 0.06 | 16 |
| 21 | LV | -0.41 | 16 |
| 22 | DET | -0.70 | 16 |
| 23 | CLE | -0.71 | 16 |
| 24 | TEN | -0.85 | 16 |
| 25 | MIN | -1.24 | 16 |
| 26 | DEN | -1.45 | 16 |
| 27 | MIA | -3.63 | 16 |
| 28 | WAS | -3.80 | 16 |
| 29 | NYJ | -3.95 | 16 |
| 30 | JAX | -5.40 | 16 |
| 31 | BUF | -8.15 | 16 |
| 32 | ARI | -10.90 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
League leader
KC · 13.28
League laggard
ARI · -10.90
League average
1.35
Spread (max − min)
24.18
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 13.28 | 11.93 | 100% |
| 2 | NO | 8.08 | 6.73 | 96.8% |
| 3 | LAC | 7.35 | 6.00 | 93.5% |
| 4 | PIT | 7.26 | 5.90 | 90.3% |
| 5 | LAR | 7.20 | 5.85 | 87.1% |
| 6 | ATL | 6.29 | 4.94 | 83.9% |
| 7 | IND | 5.37 | 4.01 | 80.6% |
| 8 | NE | 5.15 | 3.80 | 77.4% |
| 9 | TB | 5.03 | 3.68 | 74.2% |
| 10 | SEA | 4.03 | 2.68 | 71% |
| 11 | PHI | 3.69 | 2.34 | 67.7% |
| 12 | HOU | 2.86 | 1.51 | 64.5% |
| 13 | CHI | 2.33 | 0.97 | 61.3% |
| 14 | NYG | 1.60 | 0.25 | 58.1% |
| 15 | CAR | 1.58 | 0.23 | 54.8% |
| 16 | GB | 1.43 | 0.08 | 51.6% |
| 17 | DAL | 0.90 | -0.45 | 48.4% |
| 18 | BAL | 0.61 | -0.75 | 45.2% |
| 19 | CIN | 0.36 | -0.99 | 41.9% |
| 20 | SF | 0.06 | -1.30 | 38.7% |
| 21 | LV | -0.41 | -1.76 | 35.5% |
| 22 | DET | -0.70 | -2.05 | 32.3% |
| 23 | CLE | -0.71 | -2.06 | 29% |
| 24 | TEN | -0.85 | -2.20 | 25.8% |
| 25 | MIN | -1.24 | -2.59 | 22.6% |
| 26 | DEN | -1.45 | -2.80 | 19.4% |
| 27 | MIA | -3.63 | -4.98 | 16.1% |
| 28 | WAS | -3.80 | -5.15 | 12.9% |
| 29 | NYJ | -3.95 | -5.30 | 9.7% |
| 30 | JAX | -5.40 | -6.75 | 6.5% |
| 31 | BUF | -8.15 | -9.50 | 3.2% |
| 32 | ARI | -10.90 | -12.25 | 0% |
Does Exp pts pass matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 877–701–37 ATS (55.6%) across 2020–2025, #55 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2023 (136–122, 52.7%).
For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 141–113–2 | 55.5% |
| 2021 | 272 | 151–119–2 | 55.9% |
| 2022 | 271 | 148–116–7 | 56.1% |
| 2023 | 272 | 136–122–14 | 52.7% |
| 2024 | 272 | 157–106–9 | 59.7% |
| 2025 | 272 | 144–125–3 | 53.5% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year leader
BUF · 6.33
Multi-year laggard
NYJ · -4.44
Biggest improver
DET · +1.77/yr
Biggest decliner
TEN · −2.24/yr
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 6.33 | −0.22 | 10.49 | 4.32 | 5.22 | 4.33 | 7.81 | 5.11 | 7.06 |
| 2 | SF | 5.99 | +0.95 | 2.27 | 5.32 | 5.38 | 8.15 | 3.78 | 5.63 | 11.43 |
| 3 | KC | 5.90 | −1.22 | 11.50 | 7.74 | 9.97 | 0.68 | 3.47 | 1.48 | 6.45 |
| 4 | DET | 5.42 | +1.77 | 1.93 | -1.69 | 5.81 | 4.29 | 9.46 | 6.12 | 12.03 |
| 5 | GB | 5.33 | −0.53 | 10.90 | 6.95 | -0.87 | 4.99 | 4.03 | 6.99 | 4.30 |
| 6 | DAL | 3.28 | +0.79 | -1.71 | 7.14 | 1.23 | 6.28 | -4.23 | 6.16 | 8.09 |
| 7 | CIN | 2.90 | +0.24 | -0.27 | 4.72 | 5.01 | 0.48 | 5.91 | -1.06 | 5.51 |
| 8 | LAR | 2.90 | +0.85 | 0.68 | 6.37 | -4.31 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 8.32 | 5.18 |
| 9 | TB | 2.66 | −1.95 | 7.49 | 8.02 | 1.90 | 2.06 | 6.33 | -0.93 | -6.25 |
| 10 | BAL | 2.63 | +0.82 | 2.42 | -0.39 | -1.88 | 2.91 | 9.81 | -0.96 | 6.52 |
| 11 | SEA | 1.55 | −0.10 | 4.48 | 0.27 | -0.15 | 1.86 | -0.58 | 3.34 | 1.65 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.85 | +1.48 | -2.91 | -4.03 | 4.20 | -1.27 | -0.51 | 2.10 | 8.40 |
| 13 | MIA | 0.82 | −0.91 | 1.93 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 5.81 | 2.30 | -0.28 | -6.47 |
| 14 | LAC | 0.64 | −1.82 | 5.03 | 6.10 | 0.65 | -1.03 | 3.14 | -1.99 | -7.42 |
| 15 | MIN | 0.41 | −1.45 | 5.17 | 3.02 | 1.66 | -0.87 | 2.57 | -6.06 | -2.64 |
| 16 | PHI | 0.25 | +0.23 | -5.74 | 1.50 | 2.61 | 2.44 | 3.32 | 1.37 | -3.77 |
| 17 | HOU | 0.07 | +0.17 | 7.07 | -4.34 | -6.96 | 1.69 | -1.26 | 1.30 | 2.96 |
| 18 | NE | -0.20 | +1.01 | -2.60 | 3.34 | -2.16 | -9.19 | -3.41 | 9.25 | 3.34 |
| 19 | LV | -0.31 | −0.37 | 3.07 | 1.26 | 0.35 | -2.88 | -3.67 | -6.36 | 6.04 |
| 20 | ATL | -0.56 | −0.48 | 3.73 | -2.36 | -0.76 | -2.89 | 1.73 | -0.44 | -2.90 |
| 21 | ARI | -0.58 | −0.08 | 0.44 | 4.46 | -5.54 | -5.93 | 2.55 | 0.10 | -0.13 |
| 22 | NO | -0.65 | −0.82 | 4.20 | -2.23 | 0.45 | 1.16 | -3.50 | -2.97 | -1.68 |
| 23 | DEN | -0.94 | +0.61 | -4.70 | 2.27 | -5.06 | -1.87 | 1.37 | 3.14 | -1.76 |
| 24 | PIT | -1.08 | −0.43 | 3.24 | -3.99 | -0.25 | -3.15 | -0.26 | 0.98 | -4.10 |
| 25 | IND | -1.17 | −0.92 | 5.30 | 0.23 | -7.09 | -0.29 | -2.33 | 1.91 | -5.94 |
| 26 | WAS | -1.96 | +0.91 | -4.73 | -2.87 | -3.52 | -6.08 | 4.32 | -0.22 | -0.57 |
| 27 | TEN | -2.08 | −2.24 | 7.38 | 0.88 | -1.85 | -1.87 | -4.23 | -8.09 | -6.75 |
| 28 | CAR | -2.31 | +1.35 | 0.48 | -8.11 | -2.80 | -9.56 | -3.54 | -1.61 | 8.95 |
| 29 | CHI | -2.52 | +0.89 | -1.38 | -5.44 | -5.99 | -4.60 | -3.69 | 2.83 | 0.64 |
| 30 | NYG | -3.01 | +0.92 | -2.79 | -7.83 | -0.33 | -6.83 | -5.54 | -0.27 | 2.53 |
| 31 | CLE | -3.68 | −1.53 | 5.18 | -1.52 | -1.25 | -7.18 | -10.57 | -10.33 | -0.12 |
| 32 | NYJ | -4.44 | +0.87 | -5.87 | -4.98 | -4.49 | -11.59 | 0.52 | -5.88 | 1.22 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1.93 | -1.69 | 5.81 | 4.29 | 9.46 | 6.12 | 12.03 |
| SF | 2.27 | 5.32 | 5.38 | 8.15 | 3.78 | 5.63 | 11.43 |
| CAR | 0.48 | -8.11 | -2.80 | -9.56 | -3.54 | -1.61 | 8.95 |
| JAX | -2.91 | -4.03 | 4.20 | -1.27 | -0.51 | 2.10 | 8.40 |
| DAL | -1.71 | 7.14 | 1.23 | 6.28 | -4.23 | 6.16 | 8.09 |
| BUF | 10.49 | 4.32 | 5.22 | 4.33 | 7.81 | 5.11 | 7.06 |
| BAL | 2.42 | -0.39 | -1.88 | 2.91 | 9.81 | -0.96 | 6.52 |
| KC | 11.50 | 7.74 | 9.97 | 0.68 | 3.47 | 1.48 | 6.45 |
| LV | 3.07 | 1.26 | 0.35 | -2.88 | -3.67 | -6.36 | 6.04 |
| CIN | -0.27 | 4.72 | 5.01 | 0.48 | 5.91 | -1.06 | 5.51 |
| LAR | 0.68 | 6.37 | -4.31 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 8.32 | 5.18 |
| GB | 10.90 | 6.95 | -0.87 | 4.99 | 4.03 | 6.99 | 4.30 |
| NE | -2.60 | 3.34 | -2.16 | -9.19 | -3.41 | 9.25 | 3.34 |
| HOU | 7.07 | -4.34 | -6.96 | 1.69 | -1.26 | 1.30 | 2.96 |
| NYG | -2.79 | -7.83 | -0.33 | -6.83 | -5.54 | -0.27 | 2.53 |
| SEA | 4.48 | 0.27 | -0.15 | 1.86 | -0.58 | 3.34 | 1.65 |
| NYJ | -5.87 | -4.98 | -4.49 | -11.59 | 0.52 | -5.88 | 1.22 |
| CHI | -1.38 | -5.44 | -5.99 | -4.60 | -3.69 | 2.83 | 0.64 |
| CLE | 5.18 | -1.52 | -1.25 | -7.18 | -10.57 | -10.33 | -0.12 |
| ARI | 0.44 | 4.46 | -5.54 | -5.93 | 2.55 | 0.10 | -0.13 |
| WAS | -4.73 | -2.87 | -3.52 | -6.08 | 4.32 | -0.22 | -0.57 |
| NO | 4.20 | -2.23 | 0.45 | 1.16 | -3.50 | -2.97 | -1.68 |
| DEN | -4.70 | 2.27 | -5.06 | -1.87 | 1.37 | 3.14 | -1.76 |
| MIN | 5.17 | 3.02 | 1.66 | -0.87 | 2.57 | -6.06 | -2.64 |
| ATL | 3.73 | -2.36 | -0.76 | -2.89 | 1.73 | -0.44 | -2.90 |
| PHI | -5.74 | 1.50 | 2.61 | 2.44 | 3.32 | 1.37 | -3.77 |
| PIT | 3.24 | -3.99 | -0.25 | -3.15 | -0.26 | 0.98 | -4.10 |
| IND | 5.30 | 0.23 | -7.09 | -0.29 | -2.33 | 1.91 | -5.94 |
| TB | 7.49 | 8.02 | 1.90 | 2.06 | 6.33 | -0.93 | -6.25 |
| MIA | 1.93 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 5.81 | 2.30 | -0.28 | -6.47 |
| TEN | 7.38 | 0.88 | -1.85 | -1.87 | -4.23 | -8.09 | -6.75 |
| LAC | 5.03 | 6.10 | 0.65 | -1.03 | 3.14 | -1.99 | -7.42 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- off_passing_exp_pts_pass
- Side
- offensive
- Family
- Passing
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.