What Exp pts pass is

Expected points added by the passing game: for every pass play, the change in the team's expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. A deep completion on third-and-long is worth far more here than the same yards on a meaningless play, so it measures what the passing game actually did to the scoreboard, not how many yards it piled up.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2019 the Ravens led at 8.56; the league average was 0.95.

League snapshot — 2019

League leader

BAL · 8.56

League average

0.95

Best to worst

14.07

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BAL	8.56	16
2	KC	8.13	16
3	DAL	7.16	16
4	NO	7.14	16
5	SF	5.21	16
6	LV	5.01	16
7	MIN	4.39	16
8	LAR	3.82	16
9	LAC	3.80	16
10	TEN	3.20	16
11	SEA	3.19	16
12	HOU	3.19	16
13	GB	2.80	16
14	ATL	2.39	16
15	TB	2.15	16
16	PHI	1.11	16
17	NE	0.71	16
18	DET	0.65	16
19	ARI	-0.53	16
20	BUF	-1.12	16
21	CLE	-1.48	16
22	IND	-1.70	16
23	JAX	-1.90	16
24	CHI	-1.98	16
25	DEN	-2.35	16
26	MIA	-3.04	16
27	NYG	-3.36	16
28	CAR	-4.30	16
29	PIT	-4.62	16
30	NYJ	-5.20	16
31	CIN	-5.23	16
32	WAS	-5.51	16

At a glance — 2019

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BAL · 8.56

League laggard

WAS · -5.51

League average

0.95

Spread (max − min)

14.07

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BAL	8.56	7.61	100%
2	KC	8.13	7.18	96.8%
3	DAL	7.16	6.21	93.5%
4	NO	7.14	6.20	90.3%
5	SF	5.21	4.27	87.1%
6	LV	5.01	4.06	83.9%
7	MIN	4.39	3.44	80.6%
8	LAR	3.82	2.87	77.4%
9	LAC	3.80	2.86	74.2%
10	TEN	3.20	2.25	71%
11	SEA	3.19	2.25	67.7%
12	HOU	3.19	2.24	64.5%
13	GB	2.80	1.85	61.3%
14	ATL	2.39	1.45	58.1%
15	TB	2.15	1.21	54.8%
16	PHI	1.11	0.16	51.6%
17	NE	0.71	-0.24	48.4%
18	DET	0.65	-0.30	45.2%
19	ARI	-0.53	-1.48	41.9%
20	BUF	-1.12	-2.07	38.7%
21	CLE	-1.48	-2.42	35.5%
22	IND	-1.70	-2.65	32.3%
23	JAX	-1.90	-2.84	29%
24	CHI	-1.98	-2.92	25.8%
25	DEN	-2.35	-3.30	22.6%
26	MIA	-3.04	-3.99	19.4%
27	NYG	-3.36	-4.31	16.1%
28	CAR	-4.30	-5.25	12.9%
29	PIT	-4.62	-5.57	9.7%
30	NYJ	-5.20	-6.14	6.5%
31	CIN	-5.23	-6.18	3.2%
32	WAS	-5.51	-6.46	0%

Does Exp pts pass matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 877–701–37 ATS (55.6%) across 2020–2025, #55 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2023 (136–122, 52.7%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	151–119–2	55.9%
2022	271	148–116–7	56.1%
2023	272	136–122–14	52.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	144–125–3	53.5%

Exp pts pass in 2019 vs 2018

Ravens lead at 8.56 — they ranked #18 last year. Commanders are last at -5.51 — #28 last year.

The league average is 0.95, down 0.41 from 1.35 last year.

Biggest riser: Vikings, #25 → #7. Biggest faller: Steelers, #4 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 14.07; 21 teams are within 4.07 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2019 vs 2018

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

ARI · +10.36

Biggest faller

PIT · −11.88

Most consistent

HOU · +0.33

League trend 2019 vs 2018

▼ -0.41

Rank	Team	2019	2018	Δ
1	ARI	-0.53	-10.90	+10.36
2	BAL	8.56	0.61	+7.95
3	BUF	-1.12	-8.15	+7.02
4	DAL	7.16	0.90	+6.26
5	MIN	4.39	-1.24	+5.62
6	LV	5.01	-0.41	+5.41
7	SF	5.21	0.06	+5.16
8	TEN	3.20	-0.85	+4.05
9	JAX	-1.90	-5.40	+3.50
10	GB	2.80	1.43	+1.37
11	DET	0.65	-0.70	+1.34
12	MIA	-3.04	-3.63	+0.59
13	HOU	3.19	2.86	+0.33
14	CLE	-1.48	-0.71	−0.76
15	SEA	3.19	4.03	−0.84
16	DEN	-2.35	-1.45	−0.90
17	NO	7.14	8.08	−0.94
18	NYJ	-5.20	-3.95	−1.25
19	WAS	-5.51	-3.80	−1.71
20	PHI	1.11	3.69	−2.58
21	TB	2.15	5.03	−2.88
22	LAR	3.82	7.20	−3.38
23	LAC	3.80	7.35	−3.55
24	ATL	2.39	6.29	−3.90
25	CHI	-1.98	2.33	−4.30
26	NE	0.71	5.15	−4.44
27	NYG	-3.36	1.60	−4.96
28	KC	8.13	13.28	−5.15
29	CIN	-5.23	0.36	−5.60
30	CAR	-4.30	1.58	−5.88
31	IND	-1.70	5.37	−7.07
32	PIT	-4.62	7.26	−11.88

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 6.33

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -4.44

Biggest improver

DET · +1.77/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	6.33	−0.22	10.49	4.32	5.22	4.33	7.81	5.11	7.06
2	SF	5.99	+0.95	2.27	5.32	5.38	8.15	3.78	5.63	11.43
3	KC	5.90	−1.22	11.50	7.74	9.97	0.68	3.47	1.48	6.45
4	DET	5.42	+1.77	1.93	-1.69	5.81	4.29	9.46	6.12	12.03
5	GB	5.33	−0.53	10.90	6.95	-0.87	4.99	4.03	6.99	4.30
6	DAL	3.28	+0.79	-1.71	7.14	1.23	6.28	-4.23	6.16	8.09
7	CIN	2.90	+0.24	-0.27	4.72	5.01	0.48	5.91	-1.06	5.51
8	LAR	2.90	+0.85	0.68	6.37	-4.31	2.05	2.00	8.32	5.18
9	TB	2.66	−1.95	7.49	8.02	1.90	2.06	6.33	-0.93	-6.25
10	BAL	2.63	+0.82	2.42	-0.39	-1.88	2.91	9.81	-0.96	6.52
11	SEA	1.55	−0.10	4.48	0.27	-0.15	1.86	-0.58	3.34	1.65
12	JAX	0.85	+1.48	-2.91	-4.03	4.20	-1.27	-0.51	2.10	8.40
13	MIA	0.82	−0.91	1.93	-0.46	2.95	5.81	2.30	-0.28	-6.47
14	LAC	0.64	−1.82	5.03	6.10	0.65	-1.03	3.14	-1.99	-7.42
15	MIN	0.41	−1.45	5.17	3.02	1.66	-0.87	2.57	-6.06	-2.64
16	PHI	0.25	+0.23	-5.74	1.50	2.61	2.44	3.32	1.37	-3.77
17	HOU	0.07	+0.17	7.07	-4.34	-6.96	1.69	-1.26	1.30	2.96
18	NE	-0.20	+1.01	-2.60	3.34	-2.16	-9.19	-3.41	9.25	3.34
19	LV	-0.31	−0.37	3.07	1.26	0.35	-2.88	-3.67	-6.36	6.04
20	ATL	-0.56	−0.48	3.73	-2.36	-0.76	-2.89	1.73	-0.44	-2.90
21	ARI	-0.58	−0.08	0.44	4.46	-5.54	-5.93	2.55	0.10	-0.13
22	NO	-0.65	−0.82	4.20	-2.23	0.45	1.16	-3.50	-2.97	-1.68
23	DEN	-0.94	+0.61	-4.70	2.27	-5.06	-1.87	1.37	3.14	-1.76
24	PIT	-1.08	−0.43	3.24	-3.99	-0.25	-3.15	-0.26	0.98	-4.10
25	IND	-1.17	−0.92	5.30	0.23	-7.09	-0.29	-2.33	1.91	-5.94
26	WAS	-1.96	+0.91	-4.73	-2.87	-3.52	-6.08	4.32	-0.22	-0.57
27	TEN	-2.08	−2.24	7.38	0.88	-1.85	-1.87	-4.23	-8.09	-6.75
28	CAR	-2.31	+1.35	0.48	-8.11	-2.80	-9.56	-3.54	-1.61	8.95
29	CHI	-2.52	+0.89	-1.38	-5.44	-5.99	-4.60	-3.69	2.83	0.64
30	NYG	-3.01	+0.92	-2.79	-7.83	-0.33	-6.83	-5.54	-0.27	2.53
31	CLE	-3.68	−1.53	5.18	-1.52	-1.25	-7.18	-10.57	-10.33	-0.12
32	NYJ	-4.44	+0.87	-5.87	-4.98	-4.49	-11.59	0.52	-5.88	1.22

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DET	1.93	-1.69	5.81	4.29	9.46	6.12	12.03
SF	2.27	5.32	5.38	8.15	3.78	5.63	11.43
CAR	0.48	-8.11	-2.80	-9.56	-3.54	-1.61	8.95
JAX	-2.91	-4.03	4.20	-1.27	-0.51	2.10	8.40
DAL	-1.71	7.14	1.23	6.28	-4.23	6.16	8.09
BUF	10.49	4.32	5.22	4.33	7.81	5.11	7.06
BAL	2.42	-0.39	-1.88	2.91	9.81	-0.96	6.52
KC	11.50	7.74	9.97	0.68	3.47	1.48	6.45
LV	3.07	1.26	0.35	-2.88	-3.67	-6.36	6.04
CIN	-0.27	4.72	5.01	0.48	5.91	-1.06	5.51
LAR	0.68	6.37	-4.31	2.05	2.00	8.32	5.18
GB	10.90	6.95	-0.87	4.99	4.03	6.99	4.30
NE	-2.60	3.34	-2.16	-9.19	-3.41	9.25	3.34
HOU	7.07	-4.34	-6.96	1.69	-1.26	1.30	2.96
NYG	-2.79	-7.83	-0.33	-6.83	-5.54	-0.27	2.53
SEA	4.48	0.27	-0.15	1.86	-0.58	3.34	1.65
NYJ	-5.87	-4.98	-4.49	-11.59	0.52	-5.88	1.22
CHI	-1.38	-5.44	-5.99	-4.60	-3.69	2.83	0.64
CLE	5.18	-1.52	-1.25	-7.18	-10.57	-10.33	-0.12
ARI	0.44	4.46	-5.54	-5.93	2.55	0.10	-0.13
WAS	-4.73	-2.87	-3.52	-6.08	4.32	-0.22	-0.57
NO	4.20	-2.23	0.45	1.16	-3.50	-2.97	-1.68
DEN	-4.70	2.27	-5.06	-1.87	1.37	3.14	-1.76
MIN	5.17	3.02	1.66	-0.87	2.57	-6.06	-2.64
ATL	3.73	-2.36	-0.76	-2.89	1.73	-0.44	-2.90
PHI	-5.74	1.50	2.61	2.44	3.32	1.37	-3.77
PIT	3.24	-3.99	-0.25	-3.15	-0.26	0.98	-4.10
IND	5.30	0.23	-7.09	-0.29	-2.33	1.91	-5.94
TB	7.49	8.02	1.90	2.06	6.33	-0.93	-6.25
MIA	1.93	-0.46	2.95	5.81	2.30	-0.28	-6.47
TEN	7.38	0.88	-1.85	-1.87	-4.23	-8.09	-6.75
LAC	5.03	6.10	0.65	-1.03	3.14	-1.99	-7.42

Exp pts pass since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (13.28), 2019 Ravens (8.56).

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 13.28; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -10.90.

The league average has fallen from 1.35 in 2018 to 0.95 in 2019.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2019.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_passing_exp_pts_pass
Side: offensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.