What Exp pts pass is

Expected points added by the passing game: for every pass play, the change in the team's expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. A deep completion on third-and-long is worth far more here than the same yards on a meaningless play, so it measures what the passing game actually did to the scoreboard, not how many yards it piled up.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Buccaneers led at 8.02; the league average was 0.74.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

TB · 8.02

League average

0.74

Best to worst

16.13

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	TB	8.02	17
2	KC	7.74	17
3	DAL	7.14	17
4	GB	6.95	17
5	LAR	6.37	17
6	LAC	6.10	17
7	SF	5.32	17
8	CIN	4.72	17
9	ARI	4.46	17
10	BUF	4.32	17
11	NE	3.34	17
12	MIN	3.02	17
13	DEN	2.27	17
14	PHI	1.50	17
15	LV	1.26	17
16	TEN	0.88	17
17	SEA	0.27	17
18	IND	0.23	17
19	BAL	-0.39	17
20	MIA	-0.46	17
21	CLE	-1.52	17
22	DET	-1.69	17
23	NO	-2.23	17
24	ATL	-2.36	17
25	WAS	-2.87	17
26	PIT	-3.99	17
27	JAX	-4.03	17
28	HOU	-4.34	17
29	NYJ	-4.98	17
30	CHI	-5.44	17
31	NYG	-7.83	17
32	CAR	-8.11	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

TB · 8.02

League laggard

CAR · -8.11

League average

0.74

Spread (max − min)

16.13

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	TB	8.02	7.28	100%
2	KC	7.74	7.00	96.8%
3	DAL	7.14	6.40	93.5%
4	GB	6.95	6.21	90.3%
5	LAR	6.37	5.63	87.1%
6	LAC	6.10	5.36	83.9%
7	SF	5.32	4.58	80.6%
8	CIN	4.72	3.98	77.4%
9	ARI	4.46	3.72	74.2%
10	BUF	4.32	3.58	71%
11	NE	3.34	2.60	67.7%
12	MIN	3.02	2.28	64.5%
13	DEN	2.27	1.53	61.3%
14	PHI	1.50	0.76	58.1%
15	LV	1.26	0.52	54.8%
16	TEN	0.88	0.14	51.6%
17	SEA	0.27	-0.47	48.4%
18	IND	0.23	-0.51	45.2%
19	BAL	-0.39	-1.13	41.9%
20	MIA	-0.46	-1.20	38.7%
21	CLE	-1.52	-2.26	35.5%
22	DET	-1.69	-2.43	32.3%
23	NO	-2.23	-2.97	29%
24	ATL	-2.36	-3.10	25.8%
25	WAS	-2.87	-3.61	22.6%
26	PIT	-3.99	-4.73	19.4%
27	JAX	-4.03	-4.77	16.1%
28	HOU	-4.34	-5.08	12.9%
29	NYJ	-4.98	-5.72	9.7%
30	CHI	-5.44	-6.18	6.5%
31	NYG	-7.83	-8.57	3.2%
32	CAR	-8.11	-8.85	0%

Does Exp pts pass matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 877–701–37 ATS (55.6%) across 2020–2025, #55 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2024 (157–106, 59.7%); its worst 2023 (136–122, 52.7%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	151–119–2	55.9%
2022	271	148–116–7	56.1%
2023	272	136–122–14	52.7%
2024	272	157–106–9	59.7%
2025	272	144–125–3	53.5%

Exp pts pass in 2021 vs 2020

Buccaneers lead at 8.02 — they ranked #4 last year. Panthers are last at -8.11 — #21 last year.

The league average is 0.74, down 1.50 from 2.24 last year.

Biggest riser: Cowboys, #25 → #3. Biggest faller: Texans, #6 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 16.13; 18 teams are within 4.54 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DAL · +8.85

Biggest faller

HOU · −11.40

Most consistent

TB · +0.53

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -1.50

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	DAL	7.14	-1.71	+8.85
2	PHI	1.50	-5.74	+7.24
3	DEN	2.27	-4.70	+6.97
4	NE	3.34	-2.60	+5.95
5	LAR	6.37	0.68	+5.69
6	CIN	4.72	-0.27	+4.99
7	ARI	4.46	0.44	+4.02
8	SF	5.32	2.27	+3.05
9	WAS	-2.87	-4.73	+1.86
10	LAC	6.10	5.03	+1.07
11	NYJ	-4.98	-5.87	+0.89
12	TB	8.02	7.49	+0.53
13	JAX	-4.03	-2.91	−1.12
14	LV	1.26	3.07	−1.81
15	MIN	3.02	5.17	−2.14
16	MIA	-0.46	1.93	−2.39
17	BAL	-0.39	2.42	−2.81
18	DET	-1.69	1.93	−3.62
19	KC	7.74	11.50	−3.77
20	GB	6.95	10.90	−3.94
21	CHI	-5.44	-1.38	−4.06
22	SEA	0.27	4.48	−4.21
23	NYG	-7.83	-2.79	−5.04
24	IND	0.23	5.30	−5.07
25	ATL	-2.36	3.73	−6.09
26	BUF	4.32	10.49	−6.16
27	NO	-2.23	4.20	−6.43
28	TEN	0.88	7.38	−6.50
29	CLE	-1.52	5.18	−6.70
30	PIT	-3.99	3.24	−7.23
31	CAR	-8.11	0.48	−8.59
32	HOU	-4.34	7.07	−11.40

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 6.33

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -4.44

Biggest improver

DET · +1.77/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	6.33	−0.22	10.49	4.32	5.22	4.33	7.81	5.11	7.06
2	SF	5.99	+0.95	2.27	5.32	5.38	8.15	3.78	5.63	11.43
3	KC	5.90	−1.22	11.50	7.74	9.97	0.68	3.47	1.48	6.45
4	DET	5.42	+1.77	1.93	-1.69	5.81	4.29	9.46	6.12	12.03
5	GB	5.33	−0.53	10.90	6.95	-0.87	4.99	4.03	6.99	4.30
6	DAL	3.28	+0.79	-1.71	7.14	1.23	6.28	-4.23	6.16	8.09
7	CIN	2.90	+0.24	-0.27	4.72	5.01	0.48	5.91	-1.06	5.51
8	LAR	2.90	+0.85	0.68	6.37	-4.31	2.05	2.00	8.32	5.18
9	TB	2.66	−1.95	7.49	8.02	1.90	2.06	6.33	-0.93	-6.25
10	BAL	2.63	+0.82	2.42	-0.39	-1.88	2.91	9.81	-0.96	6.52
11	SEA	1.55	−0.10	4.48	0.27	-0.15	1.86	-0.58	3.34	1.65
12	JAX	0.85	+1.48	-2.91	-4.03	4.20	-1.27	-0.51	2.10	8.40
13	MIA	0.82	−0.91	1.93	-0.46	2.95	5.81	2.30	-0.28	-6.47
14	LAC	0.64	−1.82	5.03	6.10	0.65	-1.03	3.14	-1.99	-7.42
15	MIN	0.41	−1.45	5.17	3.02	1.66	-0.87	2.57	-6.06	-2.64
16	PHI	0.25	+0.23	-5.74	1.50	2.61	2.44	3.32	1.37	-3.77
17	HOU	0.07	+0.17	7.07	-4.34	-6.96	1.69	-1.26	1.30	2.96
18	NE	-0.20	+1.01	-2.60	3.34	-2.16	-9.19	-3.41	9.25	3.34
19	LV	-0.31	−0.37	3.07	1.26	0.35	-2.88	-3.67	-6.36	6.04
20	ATL	-0.56	−0.48	3.73	-2.36	-0.76	-2.89	1.73	-0.44	-2.90
21	ARI	-0.58	−0.08	0.44	4.46	-5.54	-5.93	2.55	0.10	-0.13
22	NO	-0.65	−0.82	4.20	-2.23	0.45	1.16	-3.50	-2.97	-1.68
23	DEN	-0.94	+0.61	-4.70	2.27	-5.06	-1.87	1.37	3.14	-1.76
24	PIT	-1.08	−0.43	3.24	-3.99	-0.25	-3.15	-0.26	0.98	-4.10
25	IND	-1.17	−0.92	5.30	0.23	-7.09	-0.29	-2.33	1.91	-5.94
26	WAS	-1.96	+0.91	-4.73	-2.87	-3.52	-6.08	4.32	-0.22	-0.57
27	TEN	-2.08	−2.24	7.38	0.88	-1.85	-1.87	-4.23	-8.09	-6.75
28	CAR	-2.31	+1.35	0.48	-8.11	-2.80	-9.56	-3.54	-1.61	8.95
29	CHI	-2.52	+0.89	-1.38	-5.44	-5.99	-4.60	-3.69	2.83	0.64
30	NYG	-3.01	+0.92	-2.79	-7.83	-0.33	-6.83	-5.54	-0.27	2.53
31	CLE	-3.68	−1.53	5.18	-1.52	-1.25	-7.18	-10.57	-10.33	-0.12
32	NYJ	-4.44	+0.87	-5.87	-4.98	-4.49	-11.59	0.52	-5.88	1.22

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
TB	7.49	8.02	1.90	2.06	6.33	-0.93	-6.25
KC	11.50	7.74	9.97	0.68	3.47	1.48	6.45
DAL	-1.71	7.14	1.23	6.28	-4.23	6.16	8.09
GB	10.90	6.95	-0.87	4.99	4.03	6.99	4.30
LAR	0.68	6.37	-4.31	2.05	2.00	8.32	5.18
LAC	5.03	6.10	0.65	-1.03	3.14	-1.99	-7.42
SF	2.27	5.32	5.38	8.15	3.78	5.63	11.43
CIN	-0.27	4.72	5.01	0.48	5.91	-1.06	5.51
ARI	0.44	4.46	-5.54	-5.93	2.55	0.10	-0.13
BUF	10.49	4.32	5.22	4.33	7.81	5.11	7.06
NE	-2.60	3.34	-2.16	-9.19	-3.41	9.25	3.34
MIN	5.17	3.02	1.66	-0.87	2.57	-6.06	-2.64
DEN	-4.70	2.27	-5.06	-1.87	1.37	3.14	-1.76
PHI	-5.74	1.50	2.61	2.44	3.32	1.37	-3.77
LV	3.07	1.26	0.35	-2.88	-3.67	-6.36	6.04
TEN	7.38	0.88	-1.85	-1.87	-4.23	-8.09	-6.75
SEA	4.48	0.27	-0.15	1.86	-0.58	3.34	1.65
IND	5.30	0.23	-7.09	-0.29	-2.33	1.91	-5.94
BAL	2.42	-0.39	-1.88	2.91	9.81	-0.96	6.52
MIA	1.93	-0.46	2.95	5.81	2.30	-0.28	-6.47
CLE	5.18	-1.52	-1.25	-7.18	-10.57	-10.33	-0.12
DET	1.93	-1.69	5.81	4.29	9.46	6.12	12.03
NO	4.20	-2.23	0.45	1.16	-3.50	-2.97	-1.68
ATL	3.73	-2.36	-0.76	-2.89	1.73	-0.44	-2.90
WAS	-4.73	-2.87	-3.52	-6.08	4.32	-0.22	-0.57
PIT	3.24	-3.99	-0.25	-3.15	-0.26	0.98	-4.10
JAX	-2.91	-4.03	4.20	-1.27	-0.51	2.10	8.40
HOU	7.07	-4.34	-6.96	1.69	-1.26	1.30	2.96
NYJ	-5.87	-4.98	-4.49	-11.59	0.52	-5.88	1.22
CHI	-1.38	-5.44	-5.99	-4.60	-3.69	2.83	0.64
NYG	-2.79	-7.83	-0.33	-6.83	-5.54	-0.27	2.53
CAR	0.48	-8.11	-2.80	-9.56	-3.54	-1.61	8.95

Exp pts pass since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (13.28), 2019 Ravens (8.56), 2020 Chiefs (11.50), 2021 Buccaneers (8.02).

Chiefs have led this stat 2 of 4 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2018 at 13.28; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -10.90.

The league average has fallen from 1.35 in 2018 to 0.74 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_passing_exp_pts_pass
Side: offensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.