Buffalo Bills — Third down pct, 2026

Value52.94
Rank#1 of 32
League average40.68
Rank in 2025#3 of 32

Buffalo Bills — every stat for 2026, ranked →

What Third down pct is

Third-down conversion rate: third downs converted divided by third downs faced, as a percentage. Where drives live or die — the share of third downs the offense turned into a new set of downs.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

Through Week 6 of 2026, the Bills lead at 52.94; the league average is 40.68.

League snapshot — 2026

League leader

BUF · 52.94

League average

40.68

Best to worst

24.87

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	52.94	5
2	SF	51.92	5
3	CIN	51.52	5
4	DAL	50.85	5
5	LAR	46.88	5
6	JAX	46.67	5
7	NO	45.83	5
8	NYG	44.93	5
9	KC	44.90	4
10	CHI	44.29	5
11	MIA	42.86	5
12	LV	42.19	5
13	NE	41.94	5
14	ATL	41.67	5
15	ARI	41.10	5
16	MIN	40.79	5
17	BAL	40.00	5
18	TB	39.71	5
19	HOU	38.46	5
20	CAR	38.00	4
21	LAC	37.88	5
22	NYJ	37.88	5
23	IND	37.31	5
24	DET	37.29	5
25	PHI	36.76	5
26	TEN	35.59	5
27	PIT	35.00	5
28	DEN	34.38	5
29	WAS	31.88	5
30	SEA	31.58	5
31	CLE	30.65	5
32	GB	28.07	5

At a glance — 2026

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 52.94

League laggard

GB · 28.07

League average

40.68

Spread (max − min)

24.87

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	52.94	12.26	100%
2	SF	51.92	11.25	96.8%
3	CIN	51.52	10.84	93.5%
4	DAL	50.85	10.17	90.3%
5	LAR	46.88	6.20	87.1%
6	JAX	46.67	5.99	83.9%
7	NO	45.83	5.16	80.6%
8	NYG	44.93	4.25	77.4%
9	KC	44.90	4.22	74.2%
10	CHI	44.29	3.61	71%
11	MIA	42.86	2.18	67.7%
12	LV	42.19	1.51	64.5%
13	NE	41.94	1.26	61.3%
14	ATL	41.67	0.99	58.1%
15	ARI	41.10	0.42	54.8%
16	MIN	40.79	0.11	51.6%
17	BAL	40.00	-0.68	48.4%
18	TB	39.71	-0.97	45.2%
19	HOU	38.46	-2.22	41.9%
20	CAR	38.00	-2.68	38.7%
21	LAC	37.88	-2.80	35.5%
22	NYJ	37.88	-2.80	32.3%
23	IND	37.31	-3.36	29%
24	DET	37.29	-3.39	25.8%
25	PHI	36.76	-3.91	22.6%
26	TEN	35.59	-5.08	19.4%
27	PIT	35.00	-5.68	16.1%
28	DEN	34.38	-6.30	12.9%
29	WAS	31.88	-8.79	9.7%
30	SEA	31.58	-9.10	6.5%
31	CLE	30.65	-10.03	3.2%
32	GB	28.07	-12.61	0%

Does Third down pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 867–711–37 ATS (54.9%) across 2020–2025, #76 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (156–108, 59.1%); its worst 2021 (141–129, 52.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	139–115–2	54.7%
2021	272	141–129–2	52.2%
2022	271	156–108–7	59.1%
2023	272	135–123–14	52.3%
2024	272	149–114–9	56.7%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Third down pct in 2026 vs 2025

Bills lead at 52.94 — they ranked #3 last year. Packers are last at 28.07 — #2 last year.

The league average is 40.68, up 0.50 from 40.18 last year.

Biggest riser: Raiders, #29 → #12. Biggest faller: Packers, #2 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 24.87; 23 teams are within 6.23 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIN · +8.50

Biggest faller

GB · −20.47

Most consistent

HOU · +0.64

League trend 2026 vs 2025

▲ 0.50

Rank	Team	2026	2025	Δ
1	MIN	40.79	32.29	+8.50
2	DAL	50.85	42.93	+7.92
3	LV	42.19	34.27	+7.92
4	ATL	41.67	34.15	+7.52
5	MIA	42.86	35.42	+7.44
6	CIN	51.52	44.50	+7.02
7	KC	44.90	37.96	+6.93
8	BUF	52.94	46.34	+6.60
9	LAR	46.88	40.43	+6.45
10	JAX	46.67	40.28	+6.38
11	NO	45.83	39.64	+6.19
12	NYG	44.93	40.36	+4.57
13	TEN	35.59	31.90	+3.70
14	NYJ	37.88	34.93	+2.94
15	CHI	44.29	42.54	+1.74
16	CAR	38.00	36.45	+1.55
17	SF	51.92	50.72	+1.21
18	HOU	38.46	37.83	+0.64
19	BAL	40.00	41.29	−1.29
20	ARI	41.10	42.41	−1.31
21	PHI	36.76	38.16	−1.40
22	NE	41.94	43.59	−1.65
23	DET	37.29	38.97	−1.68
24	TB	39.71	41.85	−2.14
25	CLE	30.65	34.47	−3.82
26	IND	37.31	43.01	−5.69
27	WAS	31.88	37.97	−6.08
28	PIT	35.00	41.35	−6.35
29	LAC	37.88	46.00	−8.12
30	DEN	34.38	42.67	−8.30
31	SEA	31.58	42.57	−11.00
32	GB	28.07	48.54	−20.47

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 49.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 35.01

Biggest improver

CIN · +1.86/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −2.34/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	49.39	−0.16	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
2	KC	47.01	−1.62	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
3	SF	45.85	+1.79	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
4	DAL	44.63	+0.66	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
5	TB	43.88	−0.67	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
6	CIN	43.69	+1.86	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
7	BAL	42.96	−0.44	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
8	LAC	42.81	−0.84	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
9	GB	42.59	−2.05	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07
10	PHI	42.53	−0.72	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
11	LAR	42.20	+0.02	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
12	ARI	41.36	+0.05	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
13	DET	40.76	+0.12	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
14	NO	40.63	−0.01	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
15	JAX	40.39	+0.70	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
16	ATL	40.37	−0.81	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
17	PIT	40.23	−0.89	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
18	MIA	39.36	−0.02	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
19	NE	39.26	−0.07	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
20	CHI	39.20	+1.18	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
21	LV	39.15	−0.88	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
22	MIN	39.07	−0.40	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
23	IND	38.76	−0.15	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
24	HOU	38.39	−0.59	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
25	TEN	38.27	−2.03	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
26	WAS	38.12	−0.61	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
27	SEA	38.11	−0.77	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
28	NYG	37.90	+0.97	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
29	DEN	37.45	+0.09	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
30	CAR	36.17	−0.08	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
31	CLE	35.96	−2.34	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
32	NYJ	35.01	+0.43	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	51.10	48.17	51.32	50.92	44.95	46.34	52.94
SF	40.31	41.84	45.24	48.04	42.86	50.72	51.92
CIN	36.15	41.06	47.55	38.32	46.73	44.50	51.52
DAL	40.93	44.20	45.65	50.88	37.00	42.93	50.85
LAR	43.75	44.12	39.15	43.30	37.76	40.43	46.88
JAX	40.98	36.67	42.06	38.84	37.25	40.28	46.67
NO	46.08	36.07	41.94	39.48	35.35	39.64	45.83
NYG	37.24	37.39	37.98	31.30	36.09	40.36	44.93
KC	50.00	53.20	48.96	44.70	49.33	37.96	44.90
CHI	34.98	35.51	42.40	41.35	33.33	42.54	44.29
MIA	38.81	41.56	36.98	43.22	36.67	35.42	42.86
LV	46.19	38.05	40.67	37.09	35.59	34.27	42.19
NE	41.62	44.88	36.19	30.63	35.98	43.59	41.94
ATL	44.55	39.71	42.49	40.44	39.61	34.15	41.67
ARI	40.50	46.79	35.50	39.46	43.75	42.41	41.10
MIN	41.11	37.44	41.15	39.46	41.21	32.29	40.79
BAL	49.28	36.44	42.79	42.23	48.68	41.29	40.00
TB	45.99	47.95	38.27	42.67	50.69	41.85	39.71
HOU	44.97	40.34	30.32	38.53	38.26	37.83	38.46
CAR	40.21	36.21	32.18	34.14	36.02	36.45	38.00
LAC	44.59	45.66	45.49	38.56	41.47	46.00	37.88
NYJ	34.31	36.97	34.73	26.27	40.00	34.93	37.88
IND	40.93	41.83	33.77	36.36	38.07	43.01	37.31
DET	41.36	34.74	41.43	42.99	48.53	38.97	37.29
PHI	37.44	45.91	46.82	48.43	44.16	38.16	36.76
TEN	46.67	43.83	37.33	34.93	37.67	31.90	35.59
PIT	42.92	39.75	44.92	37.12	40.53	41.35	35.00
DEN	39.23	39.25	29.57	37.16	39.91	42.67	34.38
WAS	40.09	39.29	35.81	35.94	45.87	37.97	31.88
SEA	41.94	37.82	38.00	36.89	37.98	42.57	31.58
CLE	46.15	39.62	38.60	32.27	29.96	34.47	30.65
GB	50.00	44.00	40.40	47.30	39.79	48.54	28.07

Third down pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (50.48), 2019 Ravens (47.83), 2020 Bills (51.10), 2021 Chiefs (53.20), 2022 Bills (51.32), 2023 Bills (50.92), 2024 Buccaneers (50.69), 2025 49ers (50.72), 2026 Bills (52.94).

Bills have led this stat 4 of 9 seasons.

The best season on record is Chiefs 2021 at 53.20; the worst Jets 2023 at 26.27.

Week to week — Week 4 to Week 5

Since Week 4: Ravens up 11 (#28 → #17), Falcons up 6 (#20 → #14), Vikings up 5 (#21 → #16); Broncos down 16 (#12 → #28), Colts down 11 (#12 → #23), Lions down 7 (#17 → #24).

17 teams moved by two places or fewer.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.