What Turnover pct is

Turnover rate: drives that ended in a turnover divided by all drives, as a percentage. Small percentages with large consequences.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Texans led at 7.77; the league average was 12.88.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

HOU · 7.77

League average

12.88

Best to worst

11.78

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	HOU	7.77	17
2	PIT	8.76	17
3	CIN	9.57	17
4	NO	9.69	17
5	ARI	9.94	17
6	SEA	10.06	17
7	LAR	10.27	17
8	TB	10.38	17
9	TEN	10.50	17
10	SF	10.61	17
11	GB	10.92	17
12	LAC	10.99	17
13	NYG	11.00	17
14	DEN	11.05	17
15	BAL	11.11	17
16	IND	12.18	17
17	DET	12.23	17
18	CAR	12.78	17
19	DAL	12.79	17
20	NE	14.22	17
21	CHI	14.59	17
22	ATL	14.72	17
23	WAS	15.08	17
24	KC	15.64	17
25	JAX	15.90	17
26	MIA	16.13	17
27	NYJ	16.19	17
28	LV	16.20	17
29	PHI	16.76	17
30	BUF	17.13	17
31	CLE	17.41	17
32	MIN	19.55	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

HOU · 7.77

League laggard

MIN · 19.55

League average

12.88

Spread (max − min)

11.78

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	HOU	7.77	-5.11	100%
2	PIT	8.76	-4.12	96.8%
3	CIN	9.57	-3.31	93.5%
4	NO	9.69	-3.19	90.3%
5	ARI	9.94	-2.93	87.1%
6	SEA	10.06	-2.82	83.9%
7	LAR	10.27	-2.61	80.6%
8	TB	10.38	-2.50	77.4%
9	TEN	10.50	-2.38	74.2%
10	SF	10.61	-2.27	71%
11	GB	10.92	-1.96	67.7%
12	LAC	10.99	-1.88	64.5%
13	NYG	11.00	-1.88	61.3%
14	DEN	11.05	-1.83	58.1%
15	BAL	11.11	-1.77	54.8%
16	IND	12.18	-0.70	51.6%
17	DET	12.23	-0.65	48.4%
18	CAR	12.78	-0.10	45.2%
19	DAL	12.79	-0.09	41.9%
20	NE	14.22	1.34	38.7%
21	CHI	14.59	1.71	35.5%
22	ATL	14.72	1.84	32.3%
23	WAS	15.08	2.20	29%
24	KC	15.64	2.76	25.8%
25	JAX	15.90	3.02	22.6%
26	MIA	16.13	3.25	19.4%
27	NYJ	16.19	3.31	16.1%
28	LV	16.20	3.32	12.9%
29	PHI	16.76	3.88	9.7%
30	BUF	17.13	4.25	6.5%
31	CLE	17.41	4.53	3.2%
32	MIN	19.55	6.67	0%

Does Turnover pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 834–744–37 ATS (52.9%) across 2020–2025, #139 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (153–111, 58.0%); its worst 2025 (129–140, 48.0%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	144–110–2	56.7%
2021	272	132–138–2	48.9%
2022	271	153–111–7	58.0%
2023	272	126–132–14	48.8%
2024	272	150–113–9	57.0%
2025	272	129–140–3	48.0%

Turnover pct in 2023 vs 2022

Texans lead at 7.77 — they ranked #27 last year. Vikings are last at 19.55 — #16 last year.

The league average is 12.88, up 0.31 from 12.57 last year.

Biggest riser: Texans, #27 → #1. Biggest faller: Eagles, #9 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 11.78; 20 teams are within 2.98 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIN · +7.18

Biggest faller

HOU · −6.87

Most consistent

TB · −0.39

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▲ 0.31

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	MIN	19.55	12.38	+7.18
2	PHI	16.76	11.29	+5.47
3	CLE	17.41	13.26	+4.15
4	KC	15.64	11.60	+4.04
5	NYJ	16.19	13.33	+2.86
6	MIA	16.13	13.33	+2.80
7	DET	12.23	9.60	+2.63
8	NYG	11.00	8.38	+2.62
9	WAS	15.08	12.69	+2.39
10	LV	16.20	13.87	+2.33
11	ATL	14.72	12.94	+1.78
12	BUF	17.13	15.61	+1.52
13	CHI	14.59	13.26	+1.33
14	CAR	12.78	11.46	+1.32
15	LAC	10.99	10.00	+0.99
16	JAX	15.90	14.92	+0.98
17	DEN	11.05	10.45	+0.60
18	DAL	12.79	12.31	+0.48
19	TB	10.38	10.77	−0.39
20	BAL	11.11	11.60	−0.49
21	TEN	10.50	10.99	−0.50
22	CIN	9.57	10.17	−0.60
23	SF	10.61	11.29	−0.68
24	PIT	8.76	9.94	−1.18
25	GB	10.92	12.85	−1.93
26	NE	14.22	16.15	−1.93
27	SEA	10.06	12.30	−2.24
28	NO	9.69	13.44	−3.75
29	LAR	10.27	14.12	−3.85
30	ARI	9.94	14.97	−5.03
31	IND	12.18	18.37	−6.18
32	HOU	7.77	14.65	−6.87

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DET · 9.53

Multi-year laggard

NE · 15.47

Biggest improver

DET · −1.42/yr

Biggest decliner

NO · +1.49/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DET	9.53	−1.42	12.21	12.85	9.60	12.23	9.34	8.56	1.89
2	HOU	9.59	−1.09	10.37	11.52	14.65	7.77	10.88	8.29	3.64
3	GB	10.02	+0.10	8.48	8.57	12.85	10.92	10.99	7.78	10.53
4	PIT	10.07	+0.24	10.00	9.90	9.94	8.76	9.47	10.11	12.28
5	BAL	10.64	−0.90	12.07	13.78	11.60	11.11	7.07	13.48	5.36
6	KC	10.89	−1.29	10.91	15.88	11.60	15.64	8.82	8.82	4.55
7	ARI	11.45	−0.16	11.73	9.44	14.97	9.94	12.43	12.72	8.93
8	CIN	11.61	+0.19	12.78	11.05	10.17	9.57	11.54	13.89	12.24
9	LAC	11.66	+0.63	11.36	12.99	10.00	10.99	4.92	11.36	20.00
10	DEN	11.72	−0.67	17.55	10.12	10.45	11.05	12.63	8.95	11.32
11	PHI	11.84	−1.16	16.84	12.00	11.29	16.76	8.20	8.38	9.43
12	TEN	11.88	+0.18	8.33	14.59	10.99	10.50	17.62	10.93	10.20
13	SEA	12.07	+1.21	10.50	6.84	12.30	10.06	12.63	17.65	14.52
14	NYJ	12.09	−0.84	11.24	14.89	13.33	16.19	10.29	13.04	5.66
15	WAS	12.19	−1.25	14.75	14.92	12.69	15.08	9.04	13.77	5.08
16	SF	12.37	−0.59	15.30	12.83	11.29	10.61	14.69	14.04	7.84
17	TB	12.42	+1.22	9.89	10.77	10.77	10.38	14.21	10.93	20.00
18	LAR	12.45	−0.40	15.22	12.50	14.12	10.27	10.53	10.50	14.04
19	NO	12.59	+1.49	9.44	9.60	13.44	9.69	9.84	15.34	20.75
20	NYG	12.62	−0.06	13.61	16.32	8.38	11.00	12.90	11.05	15.09
21	MIN	12.80	+0.12	12.43	8.59	12.38	19.55	11.98	15.76	8.93
22	CAR	12.97	−0.68	14.72	15.90	11.46	12.78	12.30	14.97	8.70
23	CHI	13.02	−0.13	12.29	16.20	13.26	14.59	9.29	6.99	18.52
24	DAL	13.04	−0.69	15.38	13.99	12.31	12.79	15.10	12.99	8.70
25	BUF	13.39	−0.05	13.79	12.17	15.61	17.13	6.94	11.43	16.67
26	JAX	13.56	−1.39	15.52	16.67	14.92	15.90	14.12	11.64	6.12
27	IND	13.63	+0.37	11.56	10.56	18.37	12.18	15.46	12.72	14.55
28	LV	13.67	−0.64	15.12	13.16	13.87	16.20	15.71	13.19	8.47
29	ATL	13.88	+0.34	10.86	16.20	12.94	14.72	15.12	9.78	17.54
30	CLE	13.95	+0.20	10.84	13.33	13.26	17.41	17.41	15.38	10.00
31	MIA	14.32	+0.16	13.74	15.43	13.33	16.13	10.44	14.12	17.02
32	NE	15.47	+0.58	14.56	14.86	16.15	14.22	13.97	11.93	22.64

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
HOU	10.37	11.52	14.65	7.77	10.88	8.29	3.64
PIT	10.00	9.90	9.94	8.76	9.47	10.11	12.28
CIN	12.78	11.05	10.17	9.57	11.54	13.89	12.24
NO	9.44	9.60	13.44	9.69	9.84	15.34	20.75
ARI	11.73	9.44	14.97	9.94	12.43	12.72	8.93
SEA	10.50	6.84	12.30	10.06	12.63	17.65	14.52
LAR	15.22	12.50	14.12	10.27	10.53	10.50	14.04
TB	9.89	10.77	10.77	10.38	14.21	10.93	20.00
TEN	8.33	14.59	10.99	10.50	17.62	10.93	10.20
SF	15.30	12.83	11.29	10.61	14.69	14.04	7.84
GB	8.48	8.57	12.85	10.92	10.99	7.78	10.53
LAC	11.36	12.99	10.00	10.99	4.92	11.36	20.00
NYG	13.61	16.32	8.38	11.00	12.90	11.05	15.09
DEN	17.55	10.12	10.45	11.05	12.63	8.95	11.32
BAL	12.07	13.78	11.60	11.11	7.07	13.48	5.36
IND	11.56	10.56	18.37	12.18	15.46	12.72	14.55
DET	12.21	12.85	9.60	12.23	9.34	8.56	1.89
CAR	14.72	15.90	11.46	12.78	12.30	14.97	8.70
DAL	15.38	13.99	12.31	12.79	15.10	12.99	8.70
NE	14.56	14.86	16.15	14.22	13.97	11.93	22.64
CHI	12.29	16.20	13.26	14.59	9.29	6.99	18.52
ATL	10.86	16.20	12.94	14.72	15.12	9.78	17.54
WAS	14.75	14.92	12.69	15.08	9.04	13.77	5.08
KC	10.91	15.88	11.60	15.64	8.82	8.82	4.55
JAX	15.52	16.67	14.92	15.90	14.12	11.64	6.12
MIA	13.74	15.43	13.33	16.13	10.44	14.12	17.02
NYJ	11.24	14.89	13.33	16.19	10.29	13.04	5.66
LV	15.12	13.16	13.87	16.20	15.71	13.19	8.47
PHI	16.84	12.00	11.29	16.76	8.20	8.38	9.43
BUF	13.79	12.17	15.61	17.13	6.94	11.43	16.67
CLE	10.84	13.33	13.26	17.41	17.41	15.38	10.00
MIN	12.43	8.59	12.38	19.55	11.98	15.76	8.93

Turnover pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Packers (7.22), 2019 Saints (6.15), 2020 Titans (8.33), 2021 Seahawks (6.84), 2022 Giants (8.38), 2023 Texans (7.77).

The best season on record is Saints 2019 at 6.15; the worst Buccaneers 2019 at 23.23.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_drives_turnover_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Drive Averages
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.