What Turnover pct is

Turnover rate: drives that ended in a turnover divided by all drives, as a percentage. Small percentages with large consequences.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Packers led at 7.22; the league average was 13.09.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

GB · 7.22

League average

13.09

Best to worst

12.24

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	GB	7.22	16
2	SEA	7.73	16
3	NO	10.06	16
4	NE	10.27	16
5	HOU	10.47	16
6	DAL	10.59	16
7	NYG	11.11	16
8	CLE	11.27	16
9	TEN	11.45	16
10	CAR	11.49	16
11	ATL	11.83	16
12	DET	11.93	16
13	PHI	12.43	16
14	WAS	12.50	16
15	MIN	12.70	16
16	CIN	12.87	16
17	DEN	12.90	16
18	BAL	12.92	16
19	LAC	12.94	16
20	IND	12.97	16
21	LAR	12.97	16
22	KC	13.29	16
23	MIA	14.67	16
24	BUF	15.03	16
25	LV	15.73	16
26	NYJ	16.08	16
27	PIT	16.39	16
28	ARI	16.49	16
29	CHI	16.94	16
30	SF	16.94	16
31	JAX	17.13	16
32	TB	19.46	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

GB · 7.22

League laggard

TB · 19.46

League average

13.09

Spread (max − min)

12.24

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	GB	7.22	-5.87	100%
2	SEA	7.73	-5.35	96.8%
3	NO	10.06	-3.03	93.5%
4	NE	10.27	-2.82	90.3%
5	HOU	10.47	-2.62	87.1%
6	DAL	10.59	-2.50	83.9%
7	NYG	11.11	-1.98	80.6%
8	CLE	11.27	-1.81	77.4%
9	TEN	11.45	-1.64	74.2%
10	CAR	11.49	-1.59	71%
11	ATL	11.83	-1.25	67.7%
12	DET	11.93	-1.16	64.5%
13	PHI	12.43	-0.66	61.3%
14	WAS	12.50	-0.59	58.1%
15	MIN	12.70	-0.39	54.8%
16	CIN	12.87	-0.22	51.6%
17	DEN	12.90	-0.18	48.4%
18	BAL	12.92	-0.17	45.2%
19	LAC	12.94	-0.15	41.9%
20	IND	12.97	-0.11	38.7%
21	LAR	12.97	-0.11	35.5%
22	KC	13.29	0.21	32.3%
23	MIA	14.67	1.59	29%
24	BUF	15.03	1.94	25.8%
25	LV	15.73	2.64	22.6%
26	NYJ	16.08	2.99	19.4%
27	PIT	16.39	3.31	16.1%
28	ARI	16.49	3.40	12.9%
29	CHI	16.94	3.85	9.7%
30	SF	16.94	3.85	6.5%
31	JAX	17.13	4.04	3.2%
32	TB	19.46	6.37	0%

Does Turnover pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 834–744–37 ATS (52.9%) across 2020–2025, #139 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (153–111, 58.0%); its worst 2025 (129–140, 48.0%).

For picks, this is a modest signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	144–110–2	56.7%
2021	272	132–138–2	48.9%
2022	271	153–111–7	58.0%
2023	272	126–132–14	48.8%
2024	272	150–113–9	57.0%
2025	272	129–140–3	48.0%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DET · 9.53

Multi-year laggard

NE · 15.47

Biggest improver

DET · −1.42/yr

Biggest decliner

NO · +1.49/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DET	9.53	−1.42	12.21	12.85	9.60	12.23	9.34	8.56	1.89
2	HOU	9.59	−1.09	10.37	11.52	14.65	7.77	10.88	8.29	3.64
3	GB	10.02	+0.10	8.48	8.57	12.85	10.92	10.99	7.78	10.53
4	PIT	10.07	+0.24	10.00	9.90	9.94	8.76	9.47	10.11	12.28
5	BAL	10.64	−0.90	12.07	13.78	11.60	11.11	7.07	13.48	5.36
6	KC	10.89	−1.29	10.91	15.88	11.60	15.64	8.82	8.82	4.55
7	ARI	11.45	−0.16	11.73	9.44	14.97	9.94	12.43	12.72	8.93
8	CIN	11.61	+0.19	12.78	11.05	10.17	9.57	11.54	13.89	12.24
9	LAC	11.66	+0.63	11.36	12.99	10.00	10.99	4.92	11.36	20.00
10	DEN	11.72	−0.67	17.55	10.12	10.45	11.05	12.63	8.95	11.32
11	PHI	11.84	−1.16	16.84	12.00	11.29	16.76	8.20	8.38	9.43
12	TEN	11.88	+0.18	8.33	14.59	10.99	10.50	17.62	10.93	10.20
13	SEA	12.07	+1.21	10.50	6.84	12.30	10.06	12.63	17.65	14.52
14	NYJ	12.09	−0.84	11.24	14.89	13.33	16.19	10.29	13.04	5.66
15	WAS	12.19	−1.25	14.75	14.92	12.69	15.08	9.04	13.77	5.08
16	SF	12.37	−0.59	15.30	12.83	11.29	10.61	14.69	14.04	7.84
17	TB	12.42	+1.22	9.89	10.77	10.77	10.38	14.21	10.93	20.00
18	LAR	12.45	−0.40	15.22	12.50	14.12	10.27	10.53	10.50	14.04
19	NO	12.59	+1.49	9.44	9.60	13.44	9.69	9.84	15.34	20.75
20	NYG	12.62	−0.06	13.61	16.32	8.38	11.00	12.90	11.05	15.09
21	MIN	12.80	+0.12	12.43	8.59	12.38	19.55	11.98	15.76	8.93
22	CAR	12.97	−0.68	14.72	15.90	11.46	12.78	12.30	14.97	8.70
23	CHI	13.02	−0.13	12.29	16.20	13.26	14.59	9.29	6.99	18.52
24	DAL	13.04	−0.69	15.38	13.99	12.31	12.79	15.10	12.99	8.70
25	BUF	13.39	−0.05	13.79	12.17	15.61	17.13	6.94	11.43	16.67
26	JAX	13.56	−1.39	15.52	16.67	14.92	15.90	14.12	11.64	6.12
27	IND	13.63	+0.37	11.56	10.56	18.37	12.18	15.46	12.72	14.55
28	LV	13.67	−0.64	15.12	13.16	13.87	16.20	15.71	13.19	8.47
29	ATL	13.88	+0.34	10.86	16.20	12.94	14.72	15.12	9.78	17.54
30	CLE	13.95	+0.20	10.84	13.33	13.26	17.41	17.41	15.38	10.00
31	MIA	14.32	+0.16	13.74	15.43	13.33	16.13	10.44	14.12	17.02
32	NE	15.47	+0.58	14.56	14.86	16.15	14.22	13.97	11.93	22.64

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DET	12.21	12.85	9.60	12.23	9.34	8.56	1.89
HOU	10.37	11.52	14.65	7.77	10.88	8.29	3.64
KC	10.91	15.88	11.60	15.64	8.82	8.82	4.55
WAS	14.75	14.92	12.69	15.08	9.04	13.77	5.08
BAL	12.07	13.78	11.60	11.11	7.07	13.48	5.36
NYJ	11.24	14.89	13.33	16.19	10.29	13.04	5.66
JAX	15.52	16.67	14.92	15.90	14.12	11.64	6.12
SF	15.30	12.83	11.29	10.61	14.69	14.04	7.84
LV	15.12	13.16	13.87	16.20	15.71	13.19	8.47
CAR	14.72	15.90	11.46	12.78	12.30	14.97	8.70
DAL	15.38	13.99	12.31	12.79	15.10	12.99	8.70
ARI	11.73	9.44	14.97	9.94	12.43	12.72	8.93
MIN	12.43	8.59	12.38	19.55	11.98	15.76	8.93
PHI	16.84	12.00	11.29	16.76	8.20	8.38	9.43
CLE	10.84	13.33	13.26	17.41	17.41	15.38	10.00
TEN	8.33	14.59	10.99	10.50	17.62	10.93	10.20
GB	8.48	8.57	12.85	10.92	10.99	7.78	10.53
DEN	17.55	10.12	10.45	11.05	12.63	8.95	11.32
CIN	12.78	11.05	10.17	9.57	11.54	13.89	12.24
PIT	10.00	9.90	9.94	8.76	9.47	10.11	12.28
LAR	15.22	12.50	14.12	10.27	10.53	10.50	14.04
SEA	10.50	6.84	12.30	10.06	12.63	17.65	14.52
IND	11.56	10.56	18.37	12.18	15.46	12.72	14.55
NYG	13.61	16.32	8.38	11.00	12.90	11.05	15.09
BUF	13.79	12.17	15.61	17.13	6.94	11.43	16.67
MIA	13.74	15.43	13.33	16.13	10.44	14.12	17.02
ATL	10.86	16.20	12.94	14.72	15.12	9.78	17.54
CHI	12.29	16.20	13.26	14.59	9.29	6.99	18.52
LAC	11.36	12.99	10.00	10.99	4.92	11.36	20.00
TB	9.89	10.77	10.77	10.38	14.21	10.93	20.00
NO	9.44	9.60	13.44	9.69	9.84	15.34	20.75
NE	14.56	14.86	16.15	14.22	13.97	11.93	22.64

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_drives_turnover_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Drive Averages
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.