What Points (Off − Def) is

Points scored minus points allowed — point differential. The single best predictor of a team's record on this site, and the number the power ratings start from.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the Bills led at 10.56; the league average was 0.03.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

BUF · 10.56

League average

0.03

Best to worst

18.68

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	10.56	16
2	SF	10.18	17
3	PHI	7.82	17
4	KC	7.47	17
5	DAL	7.35	17
6	CIN	6	16
7	JAX	3.18	17
8	BAL	2.06	17
9	DET	1.53	17
10	NE	1	17
11	LAC	0.41	17
12	SEA	0.35	17
13	GB	-0.06	17
14	MIA	-0.12	17
15	MIN	-0.18	17
16	NYG	-0.35	17
17	NO	-0.88	17
18	CLE	-1.18	17
19	NYJ	-1.18	17
20	ATL	-1.24	17
21	WAS	-1.29	17
22	LV	-1.35	17
23	CAR	-1.59	17
24	PIT	-2.24	17
25	TB	-2.65	17
26	TEN	-3.59	17
27	DEN	-4.24	17
28	LAR	-4.53	17
29	ARI	-6.41	17
30	HOU	-7.71	17
31	CHI	-8.06	17
32	IND	-8.12	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 10.56

League laggard

IND · -8.12

League average

0.03

Spread (max − min)

18.68

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	10.56	10.53	100%
2	SF	10.18	10.15	96.8%
3	PHI	7.82	7.79	93.5%
4	KC	7.47	7.44	90.3%
5	DAL	7.35	7.32	87.1%
6	CIN	6	5.97	83.9%
7	JAX	3.18	3.15	80.6%
8	BAL	2.06	2.03	77.4%
9	DET	1.53	1.50	74.2%
10	NE	1	0.97	71%
11	LAC	0.41	0.38	67.7%
12	SEA	0.35	0.32	64.5%
13	GB	-0.06	-0.09	61.3%
14	MIA	-0.12	-0.15	58.1%
15	MIN	-0.18	-0.21	54.8%
16	NYG	-0.35	-0.38	51.6%
17	NO	-0.88	-0.91	48.4%
18	CLE	-1.18	-1.21	45.2%
19	NYJ	-1.18	-1.21	41.9%
20	ATL	-1.24	-1.27	38.7%
21	WAS	-1.29	-1.32	35.5%
22	LV	-1.35	-1.38	32.3%
23	CAR	-1.59	-1.62	29%
24	PIT	-2.24	-2.27	25.8%
25	TB	-2.65	-2.68	22.6%
26	TEN	-3.59	-3.62	19.4%
27	DEN	-4.24	-4.27	16.1%
28	LAR	-4.53	-4.56	12.9%
29	ARI	-6.41	-6.44	9.7%
30	HOU	-7.71	-7.74	6.5%
31	CHI	-8.06	-8.09	3.2%
32	IND	-8.12	-8.15	0%

Does Points (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 968–610–37 ATS (61.3%) across 2020–2025, #3 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (167–87, 65.7%); its worst 2023 (151–107, 58.5%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	167–87–2	65.7%
2021	272	161–109–2	59.6%
2022	271	157–107–7	59.5%
2023	272	151–107–14	58.5%
2024	272	168–95–9	63.9%
2025	272	164–105–3	61.0%

Points (Off − Def) in 2022 vs 2021

Bills lead at 10.56 — they ranked #1 last year. Colts are last at -8.12 — #7 last year.

The league average is 0.03, up 0.03 from 0.00 last year.

Biggest riser: Jaguars, #32 → #7. Biggest faller: Colts, #7 → #32.

Spread between first and last: 18.68; 22 teams are within 4.83 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

JAX · +15.18

Biggest faller

IND · −13.18

Most consistent

MIN · −0.12

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▲ 0.03

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	JAX	3.18	-12	+15.18
2	NYJ	-1.18	-11.41	+10.24
3	DET	1.53	-8.35	+9.88
4	NYG	-0.35	-9.29	+8.94
5	ATL	-1.24	-8.59	+7.35
6	SF	10.18	3.65	+6.53
7	WAS	-1.29	-5.82	+4.53
8	PHI	7.82	3.47	+4.35
9	CAR	-1.59	-5.88	+4.29
10	LV	-1.35	-3.82	+2.47
11	HOU	-7.71	-10.12	+2.41
12	BAL	2.06	-0.29	+2.35
13	MIA	-0.12	-1.88	+1.76
14	CIN	6	4.94	+1.06
15	PIT	-2.24	-3.24	+1
16	KC	7.47	6.82	+0.65
17	CLE	-1.18	-1.29	+0.12
18	MIN	-0.18	-0.06	−0.12
19	LAC	0.41	0.88	−0.47
20	BUF	10.56	11.41	−0.85
21	SEA	0.35	1.71	−1.35
22	CHI	-8.06	-5.65	−2.41
23	NO	-0.88	1.71	−2.59
24	DAL	7.35	10.12	−2.76
25	GB	-0.06	4.65	−4.71
26	DEN	-4.24	0.76	−5
27	TEN	-3.59	3.82	−7.41
28	NE	1	9.35	−8.35
29	LAR	-4.53	5.18	−9.71
30	ARI	-6.41	4.88	−11.29
31	TB	-2.65	9.29	−11.94
32	IND	-8.12	5.06	−13.18

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 8.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -6.79

Biggest improver

JAX · +3.46/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.71/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	8.39	−0.73	7.88	11.41	10.56	8.24	9.24	6.82	4.60
2	KC	5.93	−0.13	6.94	6.82	7.47	4.53	3.47	2	10.25
3	BAL	5.74	−0.14	10.31	-0.29	2.06	11.94	9.24	1.53	5.40
4	SF	5.37	+0.96	-0.88	3.65	10.18	11.35	-2.76	3.88	12.20
5	SEA	3.25	+0.71	5.50	1.71	0.35	-2.24	0.41	11.24	5.80
6	GB	3.24	−1.05	8.75	4.65	-0.06	1.94	7.18	1.82	-1.60
7	TB	2.75	−1.63	8.56	9.29	-2.65	1.35	6.88	-1.82	-2.40
8	LAR	2.26	−0.06	4.75	5.18	-4.53	1.59	-1.12	10.12	-0.20
9	DAL	2.16	−0.84	-4.88	10.12	7.35	11.41	-6.94	-2.35	0.40
10	PHI	2.13	+0.17	-5.25	3.47	7.82	0.29	9.41	3.18	-4
11	MIN	1.63	+1.53	-2.81	-0.06	-0.18	-1.06	5.88	0.65	9
12	DET	1.21	+2.59	-8.88	-8.35	1.53	3.88	13.06	4	3.20
13	NE	0.96	+0.27	-1.69	9.35	1	-7.65	-7.53	10	3.20
14	CIN	0.61	+0.35	-7.06	4.94	6	-1.06	2.24	-4.59	3.80
15	PIT	0.40	−0.23	6.50	-3.24	-2.24	-1.18	1.94	0.59	0.40
16	NO	-0.05	−2.22	9.06	1.71	-0.88	4.41	-3.53	-4.53	-6.60
17	IND	-0.17	−0.85	5.56	5.06	-8.12	-1.12	-2.94	3.18	-2.80
18	DEN	-0.75	+1.24	-7.69	0.76	-4.24	-3.29	6.71	5.29	-2.80
19	LAC	-0.83	−0.43	-2.63	0.88	0.41	-3.06	5.94	1.65	-9
20	JAX	-1.16	+3.46	-11.63	-12	3.18	0.35	-6.76	8.12	10.60
21	MIA	-1.39	−2.00	4.13	-1.88	-0.12	6.18	-1.12	-4.53	-12.40
22	CHI	-1.73	+1.15	0.13	-5.65	-8.06	-1.12	-3.53	1.53	4.60
23	HOU	-2.20	+1.95	-5	-10.12	-7.71	1.41	0	6.41	-0.40
24	ATL	-2.78	+0.44	-1.13	-8.59	-1.24	-3.06	-2	-2.82	-0.60
25	CLE	-3.04	−0.99	-0.69	-1.29	-1.18	2	-10.41	-5.88	-3.80
26	ARI	-3.37	−2.08	2.69	4.88	-6.41	-7.35	1.24	-7.82	-10.80
27	WAS	-3.53	−0.51	0.38	-5.82	-1.29	-11.12	5.53	-5.59	-6.80
28	LV	-3.69	−0.38	-2.75	-3.82	-1.35	0.06	-7.35	-11.24	0.60
29	TEN	-4.36	−2.71	3.25	3.82	-3.59	-3.65	-8.76	-11.41	-10.20
30	CAR	-4.82	+0.45	-3.25	-5.88	-1.59	-10.59	-11.35	-4.06	3
31	NYG	-4.85	+0.71	-4.81	-9.29	-0.35	-8.29	-8.35	-3.41	0.60
32	NYJ	-6.79	+1.23	-13.38	-11.41	-1.18	-5.12	-3.88	-11.94	-0.60

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	7.88	11.41	10.56	8.24	9.24	6.82	4.60
SF	-0.88	3.65	10.18	11.35	-2.76	3.88	12.20
PHI	-5.25	3.47	7.82	0.29	9.41	3.18	-4
KC	6.94	6.82	7.47	4.53	3.47	2	10.25
DAL	-4.88	10.12	7.35	11.41	-6.94	-2.35	0.40
CIN	-7.06	4.94	6	-1.06	2.24	-4.59	3.80
JAX	-11.63	-12	3.18	0.35	-6.76	8.12	10.60
BAL	10.31	-0.29	2.06	11.94	9.24	1.53	5.40
DET	-8.88	-8.35	1.53	3.88	13.06	4	3.20
NE	-1.69	9.35	1	-7.65	-7.53	10	3.20
LAC	-2.63	0.88	0.41	-3.06	5.94	1.65	-9
SEA	5.50	1.71	0.35	-2.24	0.41	11.24	5.80
GB	8.75	4.65	-0.06	1.94	7.18	1.82	-1.60
MIA	4.13	-1.88	-0.12	6.18	-1.12	-4.53	-12.40
MIN	-2.81	-0.06	-0.18	-1.06	5.88	0.65	9
NYG	-4.81	-9.29	-0.35	-8.29	-8.35	-3.41	0.60
NO	9.06	1.71	-0.88	4.41	-3.53	-4.53	-6.60
CLE	-0.69	-1.29	-1.18	2	-10.41	-5.88	-3.80
NYJ	-13.38	-11.41	-1.18	-5.12	-3.88	-11.94	-0.60
ATL	-1.13	-8.59	-1.24	-3.06	-2	-2.82	-0.60
WAS	0.38	-5.82	-1.29	-11.12	5.53	-5.59	-6.80
LV	-2.75	-3.82	-1.35	0.06	-7.35	-11.24	0.60
CAR	-3.25	-5.88	-1.59	-10.59	-11.35	-4.06	3
PIT	6.50	-3.24	-2.24	-1.18	1.94	0.59	0.40
TB	8.56	9.29	-2.65	1.35	6.88	-1.82	-2.40
TEN	3.25	3.82	-3.59	-3.65	-8.76	-11.41	-10.20
DEN	-7.69	0.76	-4.24	-3.29	6.71	5.29	-2.80
LAR	4.75	5.18	-4.53	1.59	-1.12	10.12	-0.20
ARI	2.69	4.88	-6.41	-7.35	1.24	-7.82	-10.80
HOU	-5	-10.12	-7.71	1.41	0	6.41	-0.40
CHI	0.13	-5.65	-8.06	-1.12	-3.53	1.53	4.60
IND	5.56	5.06	-8.12	-1.12	-2.94	3.18	-2.80

Points (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Saints (9.44), 2019 Ravens (15.56), 2020 Ravens (10.31), 2021 Bills (11.41), 2022 Bills (10.56).

Ravens have led this stat 2 of 5 seasons.

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 15.56; the worst Jets 2020 at -13.38.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_points
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.