What Points (Off − Def) is

Points scored minus points allowed — point differential. The single best predictor of a team's record on this site, and the number the power ratings start from.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Ravens led at 11.94; the league average was 0.00.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

BAL · 11.94

League average

0.00

Best to worst

23.06

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BAL	11.94	17
2	DAL	11.41	17
3	SF	11.35	17
4	BUF	8.24	17
5	MIA	6.18	17
6	KC	4.53	17
7	NO	4.41	17
8	DET	3.88	17
9	CLE	2	17
10	GB	1.94	17
11	LAR	1.59	17
12	HOU	1.41	17
13	TB	1.35	17
14	JAX	0.35	17
15	PHI	0.29	17
16	LV	0.06	17
17	CIN	-1.06	17
18	MIN	-1.06	17
19	CHI	-1.12	17
20	IND	-1.12	17
21	PIT	-1.18	17
22	SEA	-2.24	17
23	ATL	-3.06	17
24	LAC	-3.06	17
25	DEN	-3.29	17
26	TEN	-3.65	17
27	NYJ	-5.12	17
28	ARI	-7.35	17
29	NE	-7.65	17
30	NYG	-8.29	17
31	CAR	-10.59	17
32	WAS	-11.12	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BAL · 11.94

League laggard

WAS · -11.12

League average

0.00

Spread (max − min)

23.06

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BAL	11.94	11.94	100%
2	DAL	11.41	11.41	96.8%
3	SF	11.35	11.35	93.5%
4	BUF	8.24	8.24	90.3%
5	MIA	6.18	6.18	87.1%
6	KC	4.53	4.53	83.9%
7	NO	4.41	4.41	80.6%
8	DET	3.88	3.88	77.4%
9	CLE	2	2.00	74.2%
10	GB	1.94	1.94	71%
11	LAR	1.59	1.59	67.7%
12	HOU	1.41	1.41	64.5%
13	TB	1.35	1.35	61.3%
14	JAX	0.35	0.35	58.1%
15	PHI	0.29	0.29	54.8%
16	LV	0.06	0.06	51.6%
17	CIN	-1.06	-1.06	48.4%
18	MIN	-1.06	-1.06	45.2%
19	CHI	-1.12	-1.12	41.9%
20	IND	-1.12	-1.12	38.7%
21	PIT	-1.18	-1.18	35.5%
22	SEA	-2.24	-2.24	32.3%
23	ATL	-3.06	-3.06	29%
24	LAC	-3.06	-3.06	25.8%
25	DEN	-3.29	-3.29	22.6%
26	TEN	-3.65	-3.65	19.4%
27	NYJ	-5.12	-5.12	16.1%
28	ARI	-7.35	-7.35	12.9%
29	NE	-7.65	-7.65	9.7%
30	NYG	-8.29	-8.29	6.5%
31	CAR	-10.59	-10.59	3.2%
32	WAS	-11.12	-11.12	0%

Does Points (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 968–610–37 ATS (61.3%) across 2020–2025, #3 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (167–87, 65.7%); its worst 2023 (151–107, 58.5%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	167–87–2	65.7%
2021	272	161–109–2	59.6%
2022	271	157–107–7	59.5%
2023	272	151–107–14	58.5%
2024	272	168–95–9	63.9%
2025	272	164–105–3	61.0%

Points (Off − Def) in 2023 vs 2022

Ravens lead at 11.94 — they ranked #8 last year. Commanders are last at -11.12 — #21 last year.

The league average is 0.00, down 0.03 from 0.03 last year.

Biggest riser: Texans, #30 → #12. Biggest faller: Patriots, #10 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 23.06; 22 teams are within 5.79 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

BAL · +9.88

Biggest faller

WAS · −9.82

Most consistent

TEN · −0.06

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▼ -0.03

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	BAL	11.94	2.06	+9.88
2	HOU	1.41	-7.71	+9.12
3	IND	-1.12	-8.12	+7
4	CHI	-1.12	-8.06	+6.94
5	MIA	6.18	-0.12	+6.29
6	LAR	1.59	-4.53	+6.12
7	NO	4.41	-0.88	+5.29
8	DAL	11.41	7.35	+4.06
9	TB	1.35	-2.65	+4
10	CLE	2	-1.18	+3.18
11	DET	3.88	1.53	+2.35
12	GB	1.94	-0.06	+2
13	LV	0.06	-1.35	+1.41
14	SF	11.35	10.18	+1.18
15	PIT	-1.18	-2.24	+1.06
16	DEN	-3.29	-4.24	+0.94
17	TEN	-3.65	-3.59	−0.06
18	MIN	-1.06	-0.18	−0.88
19	ARI	-7.35	-6.41	−0.94
20	ATL	-3.06	-1.24	−1.82
21	BUF	8.24	10.56	−2.33
22	SEA	-2.24	0.35	−2.59
23	JAX	0.35	3.18	−2.82
24	KC	4.53	7.47	−2.94
25	LAC	-3.06	0.41	−3.47
26	NYJ	-5.12	-1.18	−3.94
27	CIN	-1.06	6	−7.06
28	PHI	0.29	7.82	−7.53
29	NYG	-8.29	-0.35	−7.94
30	NE	-7.65	1	−8.65
31	CAR	-10.59	-1.59	−9
32	WAS	-11.12	-1.29	−9.82

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 8.39

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -6.79

Biggest improver

JAX · +3.46/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.71/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	8.39	−0.73	7.88	11.41	10.56	8.24	9.24	6.82	4.60
2	KC	5.93	−0.13	6.94	6.82	7.47	4.53	3.47	2	10.25
3	BAL	5.74	−0.14	10.31	-0.29	2.06	11.94	9.24	1.53	5.40
4	SF	5.37	+0.96	-0.88	3.65	10.18	11.35	-2.76	3.88	12.20
5	SEA	3.25	+0.71	5.50	1.71	0.35	-2.24	0.41	11.24	5.80
6	GB	3.24	−1.05	8.75	4.65	-0.06	1.94	7.18	1.82	-1.60
7	TB	2.75	−1.63	8.56	9.29	-2.65	1.35	6.88	-1.82	-2.40
8	LAR	2.26	−0.06	4.75	5.18	-4.53	1.59	-1.12	10.12	-0.20
9	DAL	2.16	−0.84	-4.88	10.12	7.35	11.41	-6.94	-2.35	0.40
10	PHI	2.13	+0.17	-5.25	3.47	7.82	0.29	9.41	3.18	-4
11	MIN	1.63	+1.53	-2.81	-0.06	-0.18	-1.06	5.88	0.65	9
12	DET	1.21	+2.59	-8.88	-8.35	1.53	3.88	13.06	4	3.20
13	NE	0.96	+0.27	-1.69	9.35	1	-7.65	-7.53	10	3.20
14	CIN	0.61	+0.35	-7.06	4.94	6	-1.06	2.24	-4.59	3.80
15	PIT	0.40	−0.23	6.50	-3.24	-2.24	-1.18	1.94	0.59	0.40
16	NO	-0.05	−2.22	9.06	1.71	-0.88	4.41	-3.53	-4.53	-6.60
17	IND	-0.17	−0.85	5.56	5.06	-8.12	-1.12	-2.94	3.18	-2.80
18	DEN	-0.75	+1.24	-7.69	0.76	-4.24	-3.29	6.71	5.29	-2.80
19	LAC	-0.83	−0.43	-2.63	0.88	0.41	-3.06	5.94	1.65	-9
20	JAX	-1.16	+3.46	-11.63	-12	3.18	0.35	-6.76	8.12	10.60
21	MIA	-1.39	−2.00	4.13	-1.88	-0.12	6.18	-1.12	-4.53	-12.40
22	CHI	-1.73	+1.15	0.13	-5.65	-8.06	-1.12	-3.53	1.53	4.60
23	HOU	-2.20	+1.95	-5	-10.12	-7.71	1.41	0	6.41	-0.40
24	ATL	-2.78	+0.44	-1.13	-8.59	-1.24	-3.06	-2	-2.82	-0.60
25	CLE	-3.04	−0.99	-0.69	-1.29	-1.18	2	-10.41	-5.88	-3.80
26	ARI	-3.37	−2.08	2.69	4.88	-6.41	-7.35	1.24	-7.82	-10.80
27	WAS	-3.53	−0.51	0.38	-5.82	-1.29	-11.12	5.53	-5.59	-6.80
28	LV	-3.69	−0.38	-2.75	-3.82	-1.35	0.06	-7.35	-11.24	0.60
29	TEN	-4.36	−2.71	3.25	3.82	-3.59	-3.65	-8.76	-11.41	-10.20
30	CAR	-4.82	+0.45	-3.25	-5.88	-1.59	-10.59	-11.35	-4.06	3
31	NYG	-4.85	+0.71	-4.81	-9.29	-0.35	-8.29	-8.35	-3.41	0.60
32	NYJ	-6.79	+1.23	-13.38	-11.41	-1.18	-5.12	-3.88	-11.94	-0.60

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BAL	10.31	-0.29	2.06	11.94	9.24	1.53	5.40
DAL	-4.88	10.12	7.35	11.41	-6.94	-2.35	0.40
SF	-0.88	3.65	10.18	11.35	-2.76	3.88	12.20
BUF	7.88	11.41	10.56	8.24	9.24	6.82	4.60
MIA	4.13	-1.88	-0.12	6.18	-1.12	-4.53	-12.40
KC	6.94	6.82	7.47	4.53	3.47	2	10.25
NO	9.06	1.71	-0.88	4.41	-3.53	-4.53	-6.60
DET	-8.88	-8.35	1.53	3.88	13.06	4	3.20
CLE	-0.69	-1.29	-1.18	2	-10.41	-5.88	-3.80
GB	8.75	4.65	-0.06	1.94	7.18	1.82	-1.60
LAR	4.75	5.18	-4.53	1.59	-1.12	10.12	-0.20
HOU	-5	-10.12	-7.71	1.41	0	6.41	-0.40
TB	8.56	9.29	-2.65	1.35	6.88	-1.82	-2.40
JAX	-11.63	-12	3.18	0.35	-6.76	8.12	10.60
PHI	-5.25	3.47	7.82	0.29	9.41	3.18	-4
LV	-2.75	-3.82	-1.35	0.06	-7.35	-11.24	0.60
CIN	-7.06	4.94	6	-1.06	2.24	-4.59	3.80
MIN	-2.81	-0.06	-0.18	-1.06	5.88	0.65	9
CHI	0.13	-5.65	-8.06	-1.12	-3.53	1.53	4.60
IND	5.56	5.06	-8.12	-1.12	-2.94	3.18	-2.80
PIT	6.50	-3.24	-2.24	-1.18	1.94	0.59	0.40
SEA	5.50	1.71	0.35	-2.24	0.41	11.24	5.80
ATL	-1.13	-8.59	-1.24	-3.06	-2	-2.82	-0.60
LAC	-2.63	0.88	0.41	-3.06	5.94	1.65	-9
DEN	-7.69	0.76	-4.24	-3.29	6.71	5.29	-2.80
TEN	3.25	3.82	-3.59	-3.65	-8.76	-11.41	-10.20
NYJ	-13.38	-11.41	-1.18	-5.12	-3.88	-11.94	-0.60
ARI	2.69	4.88	-6.41	-7.35	1.24	-7.82	-10.80
NE	-1.69	9.35	1	-7.65	-7.53	10	3.20
NYG	-4.81	-9.29	-0.35	-8.29	-8.35	-3.41	0.60
CAR	-3.25	-5.88	-1.59	-10.59	-11.35	-4.06	3
WAS	0.38	-5.82	-1.29	-11.12	5.53	-5.59	-6.80

Points (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Saints (9.44), 2019 Ravens (15.56), 2020 Ravens (10.31), 2021 Bills (11.41), 2022 Bills (10.56), 2023 Ravens (11.94).

Ravens have led this stat 3 of 6 seasons.

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 15.56; the worst Jets 2020 at -13.38.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_points
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.