What NET EXP (Off + Def) is

Net expected points: the offense's total expected points contributed plus the defense's — both sides of the ball, each play valued by what it did to the chance of scoring, combined. A whole-team quality number that ignores the scoreboard's luck.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2022 the 49ers led at 12.41; the league average was 0.03.

League snapshot — 2022

League leader

SF · 12.41

League average

0.03

Best to worst

24.23

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	SF	12.41	17
2	KC	11.68	17
3	PHI	11.22	17
4	BUF	10.46	16
5	DAL	7.61	17
6	CIN	6.96	16
7	JAX	3.53	17
8	NE	1.74	17
9	MIA	1.52	17
10	BAL	1.07	17
11	GB	0.30	17
12	DET	0.14	17
13	CLE	0.01	17
14	MIN	-0.25	17
15	PIT	-0.29	17
16	TB	-0.49	17
17	LAC	-0.53	17
18	NO	-0.78	17
19	WAS	-1.00	17
20	NYJ	-1.27	17
21	NYG	-1.43	17
22	SEA	-1.67	17
23	DEN	-2.02	17
24	ATL	-2.93	17
25	CAR	-3.36	17
26	LV	-3.41	17
27	TEN	-4.67	17
28	LAR	-4.89	17
29	ARI	-6.94	17
30	IND	-9.50	17
31	CHI	-10.37	17
32	HOU	-11.82	17

At a glance — 2022

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

SF · 12.41

League laggard

HOU · -11.82

League average

0.03

Spread (max − min)

24.23

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	SF	12.41	12.38	100%
2	KC	11.68	11.65	96.8%
3	PHI	11.22	11.19	93.5%
4	BUF	10.46	10.42	90.3%
5	DAL	7.61	7.58	87.1%
6	CIN	6.96	6.93	83.9%
7	JAX	3.53	3.50	80.6%
8	NE	1.74	1.71	77.4%
9	MIA	1.52	1.49	74.2%
10	BAL	1.07	1.04	71%
11	GB	0.30	0.26	67.7%
12	DET	0.14	0.11	64.5%
13	CLE	0.01	-0.03	61.3%
14	MIN	-0.25	-0.28	58.1%
15	PIT	-0.29	-0.32	54.8%
16	TB	-0.49	-0.52	51.6%
17	LAC	-0.53	-0.56	48.4%
18	NO	-0.78	-0.81	45.2%
19	WAS	-1.00	-1.03	41.9%
20	NYJ	-1.27	-1.30	38.7%
21	NYG	-1.43	-1.46	35.5%
22	SEA	-1.67	-1.70	32.3%
23	DEN	-2.02	-2.05	29%
24	ATL	-2.93	-2.96	25.8%
25	CAR	-3.36	-3.39	22.6%
26	LV	-3.41	-3.44	19.4%
27	TEN	-4.67	-4.70	16.1%
28	LAR	-4.89	-4.92	12.9%
29	ARI	-6.94	-6.97	9.7%
30	IND	-9.50	-9.53	6.5%
31	CHI	-10.37	-10.40	3.2%
32	HOU	-11.82	-11.85	0%

Does NET EXP (Off + Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 956–622–37 ATS (60.6%) across 2020–2025, #7 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (164–90, 64.6%); its worst 2021 (154–116, 57.0%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	164–90–2	64.6%
2021	272	154–116–2	57.0%
2022	271	166–98–7	62.9%
2023	272	150–108–14	58.1%
2024	272	165–98–9	62.7%
2025	272	157–112–3	58.4%

NET EXP (Off + Def) in 2022 vs 2021

49ers lead at 12.41 — they ranked #9 last year. Texans are last at -11.82 — #31 last year.

The league average is 0.03, up 0.03 from 0 last year.

Biggest riser: Jaguars, #30 → #7. Biggest faller: Cardinals, #5 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 24.23; 22 teams are within 5.93 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2022 vs 2021

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

JAX · +15.12

Biggest faller

ARI · −14.57

Most consistent

LV · −0.11

League trend 2022 vs 2021

▲ 0.03

Rank	Team	2022	2021	Δ
1	JAX	3.53	-11.59	+15.12
2	NYJ	-1.27	-13.33	+12.05
3	DET	0.14	-9.95	+10.09
4	NYG	-1.43	-10.41	+8.98
5	PHI	11.22	3.04	+8.18
6	SF	12.41	4.99	+7.42
7	ATL	-2.93	-9.12	+6.19
8	KC	11.68	5.98	+5.70
9	WAS	-1.00	-6.45	+5.45
10	BAL	1.07	-2.81	+3.89
11	MIA	1.52	-1.65	+3.17
12	PIT	-0.29	-3.07	+2.78
13	CAR	-3.36	-5.96	+2.60
14	CIN	6.96	4.45	+2.51
15	HOU	-11.82	-12.79	+0.97
16	MIN	-0.25	-0.84	+0.59
17	LV	-3.41	-3.30	−0.11
18	CLE	0.01	0.23	−0.23
19	SEA	-1.67	0.11	−1.78
20	NO	-0.78	1.83	−2.61
21	LAC	-0.53	2.47	−3.00
22	BUF	10.46	13.49	−3.04
23	CHI	-10.37	-6.96	−3.41
24	DAL	7.61	11.04	−3.43
25	DEN	-2.02	1.48	−3.50
26	GB	0.30	6.94	−6.65
27	NE	1.74	9.00	−7.26
28	TEN	-4.67	2.98	−7.64
29	LAR	-4.89	6.20	−11.08
30	TB	-0.49	11.80	−12.29
31	IND	-9.50	4.57	−14.08
32	ARI	-6.94	7.63	−14.57

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.23

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -8.27

Biggest improver

JAX · +3.46/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.81/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.23	−0.83	7.79	13.49	10.46	10.72	10.00	9.01	3.17
2	SF	7.47	+0.71	2.43	4.99	12.41	14.56	1.59	0.92	15.42
3	KC	7.20	−0.04	8.14	5.98	11.68	5.65	2.99	3.90	12.03
4	BAL	6.03	+0.63	7.99	-2.81	1.07	14.01	13.54	1.62	6.77
5	LAR	4.97	+0.49	9.35	6.20	-4.89	3.77	-0.69	13.30	7.76
6	GB	4.79	−1.13	10.46	6.94	0.30	3.68	9.19	4.15	-1.15
7	TB	4.01	−1.97	11.05	11.80	-0.49	0.69	7.26	-0.65	-1.58
8	PHI	2.06	−0.45	-5.29	3.04	11.22	0.18	11.88	3.47	-10.05
9	DAL	1.96	−1.09	-5.17	11.04	7.61	12.55	-9.37	-1.75	-1.16
10	SEA	1.71	+0.70	3.61	0.11	-1.67	-3.54	0.89	9.51	3.06
11	MIN	1.55	+1.07	-1.41	-0.84	-0.25	0.29	7.69	-0.05	5.45
12	NE	0.73	+0.60	-3.58	9.00	1.74	-7.77	-10.14	11.68	4.15
13	PIT	0.62	−0.56	7.58	-3.07	-0.29	-0.13	0.16	-0.25	0.33
14	NO	0.22	−1.89	8.11	1.83	-0.78	4.84	-5.45	-0.89	-6.15
15	DET	0.21	+2.76	-11.77	-9.95	0.14	4.86	13.28	5.61	-0.73
16	LAC	0.17	−0.62	2.49	2.47	-0.53	-5.77	5.49	2.08	-5.05
17	CIN	0.13	+0.65	-9.21	4.45	6.96	-2.98	2.88	-7.21	6.03
18	DEN	-0.40	+1.08	-7.17	1.48	-2.02	-4.91	6.34	7.15	-3.66
19	MIA	-1.23	−1.82	1.60	-1.65	1.52	8.14	-0.33	-6.14	-11.74
20	IND	-1.26	−1.40	5.64	4.57	-9.50	-0.47	-3.58	2.37	-7.88
21	ATL	-2.05	+0.92	-1.18	-9.12	-2.93	-1.51	0.81	-1.56	1.13
22	JAX	-2.14	+3.46	-14.67	-11.59	3.53	0.33	-8.95	6.88	9.46
23	CLE	-2.92	−1.39	0.83	0.23	0.01	0.87	-13.14	-4.98	-4.29
24	WAS	-3.07	−0.50	1.96	-6.45	-1.00	-10.49	6.79	-8.07	-4.24
25	HOU	-3.09	+2.76	-6.41	-12.79	-11.82	-0.06	0.73	6.35	2.37
26	ARI	-3.11	−1.84	1.35	7.63	-6.94	-9.62	1.30	-5.87	-9.62
27	CHI	-3.15	+1.50	-2.24	-6.96	-10.37	-2.67	-5.71	1.16	4.76
28	TEN	-4.69	−2.81	4.58	2.98	-4.67	-3.85	-8.95	-14.08	-8.83
29	LV	-5.06	−0.51	-3.98	-3.30	-3.41	-2.97	-8.57	-11.79	-1.40
30	CAR	-5.36	+0.48	-2.77	-5.96	-3.36	-11.28	-13.53	-5.34	4.73
31	NYG	-6.64	+0.29	-5.86	-10.41	-1.43	-9.84	-10.62	-3.95	-4.37
32	NYJ	-8.27	+1.06	-14.26	-13.33	-1.27	-7.29	-3.78	-16.56	-1.37

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
SF	2.43	4.99	12.41	14.56	1.59	0.92	15.42
KC	8.14	5.98	11.68	5.65	2.99	3.90	12.03
PHI	-5.29	3.04	11.22	0.18	11.88	3.47	-10.05
BUF	7.79	13.49	10.46	10.72	10.00	9.01	3.17
DAL	-5.17	11.04	7.61	12.55	-9.37	-1.75	-1.16
CIN	-9.21	4.45	6.96	-2.98	2.88	-7.21	6.03
JAX	-14.67	-11.59	3.53	0.33	-8.95	6.88	9.46
NE	-3.58	9.00	1.74	-7.77	-10.14	11.68	4.15
MIA	1.60	-1.65	1.52	8.14	-0.33	-6.14	-11.74
BAL	7.99	-2.81	1.07	14.01	13.54	1.62	6.77
GB	10.46	6.94	0.30	3.68	9.19	4.15	-1.15
DET	-11.77	-9.95	0.14	4.86	13.28	5.61	-0.73
CLE	0.83	0.23	0.01	0.87	-13.14	-4.98	-4.29
MIN	-1.41	-0.84	-0.25	0.29	7.69	-0.05	5.45
PIT	7.58	-3.07	-0.29	-0.13	0.16	-0.25	0.33
TB	11.05	11.80	-0.49	0.69	7.26	-0.65	-1.58
LAC	2.49	2.47	-0.53	-5.77	5.49	2.08	-5.05
NO	8.11	1.83	-0.78	4.84	-5.45	-0.89	-6.15
WAS	1.96	-6.45	-1.00	-10.49	6.79	-8.07	-4.24
NYJ	-14.26	-13.33	-1.27	-7.29	-3.78	-16.56	-1.37
NYG	-5.86	-10.41	-1.43	-9.84	-10.62	-3.95	-4.37
SEA	3.61	0.11	-1.67	-3.54	0.89	9.51	3.06
DEN	-7.17	1.48	-2.02	-4.91	6.34	7.15	-3.66
ATL	-1.18	-9.12	-2.93	-1.51	0.81	-1.56	1.13
CAR	-2.77	-5.96	-3.36	-11.28	-13.53	-5.34	4.73
LV	-3.98	-3.30	-3.41	-2.97	-8.57	-11.79	-1.40
TEN	4.58	2.98	-4.67	-3.85	-8.95	-14.08	-8.83
LAR	9.35	6.20	-4.89	3.77	-0.69	13.30	7.76
ARI	1.35	7.63	-6.94	-9.62	1.30	-5.87	-9.62
IND	5.64	4.57	-9.50	-0.47	-3.58	2.37	-7.88
CHI	-2.24	-6.96	-10.37	-2.67	-5.71	1.16	4.76
HOU	-6.41	-12.79	-11.82	-0.06	0.73	6.35	2.37

NET EXP (Off + Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (11.42), 2019 Ravens (17.26), 2020 Buccaneers (11.05), 2021 Bills (13.49), 2022 49ers (12.41).

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 17.26; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -15.17.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2022.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_exp
Side: net_exp
Family: NET (Off + Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.