What NET EXP (Off + Def) is

Net expected points: the offense's total expected points contributed plus the defense's — both sides of the ball, each play valued by what it did to the chance of scoring, combined. A whole-team quality number that ignores the scoreboard's luck.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Bills led at 13.49; the league average was 0.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

BUF · 13.49

League average

Best to worst

26.82

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	13.49	17
2	TB	11.80	17
3	DAL	11.04	17
4	NE	9.00	17
5	ARI	7.63	17
6	GB	6.94	17
7	LAR	6.20	17
8	KC	5.98	17
9	SF	4.99	17
10	IND	4.57	17
11	CIN	4.45	17
12	PHI	3.04	17
13	TEN	2.98	17
14	LAC	2.47	17
15	NO	1.83	17
16	DEN	1.48	17
17	CLE	0.23	17
18	SEA	0.11	17
19	MIN	-0.84	17
20	MIA	-1.65	17
21	BAL	-2.81	17
22	PIT	-3.07	17
23	LV	-3.30	17
24	CAR	-5.96	17
25	WAS	-6.45	17
26	CHI	-6.96	17
27	ATL	-9.12	17
28	DET	-9.95	17
29	NYG	-10.41	17
30	JAX	-11.59	17
31	HOU	-12.79	17
32	NYJ	-13.33	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 13.49

League laggard

NYJ · -13.33

League average

Spread (max − min)

26.82

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	13.49	13.49	100%
2	TB	11.80	11.80	96.8%
3	DAL	11.04	11.04	93.5%
4	NE	9.00	9.00	90.3%
5	ARI	7.63	7.63	87.1%
6	GB	6.94	6.94	83.9%
7	LAR	6.20	6.20	80.6%
8	KC	5.98	5.98	77.4%
9	SF	4.99	4.99	74.2%
10	IND	4.57	4.57	71%
11	CIN	4.45	4.45	67.7%
12	PHI	3.04	3.04	64.5%
13	TEN	2.98	2.98	61.3%
14	LAC	2.47	2.47	58.1%
15	NO	1.83	1.83	54.8%
16	DEN	1.48	1.48	51.6%
17	CLE	0.23	0.23	48.4%
18	SEA	0.11	0.11	45.2%
19	MIN	-0.84	-0.84	41.9%
20	MIA	-1.65	-1.65	38.7%
21	BAL	-2.81	-2.81	35.5%
22	PIT	-3.07	-3.07	32.3%
23	LV	-3.30	-3.30	29%
24	CAR	-5.96	-5.96	25.8%
25	WAS	-6.45	-6.45	22.6%
26	CHI	-6.96	-6.96	19.4%
27	ATL	-9.12	-9.12	16.1%
28	DET	-9.95	-9.95	12.9%
29	NYG	-10.41	-10.41	9.7%
30	JAX	-11.59	-11.59	6.5%
31	HOU	-12.79	-12.79	3.2%
32	NYJ	-13.33	-13.33	0%

Does NET EXP (Off + Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 956–622–37 ATS (60.6%) across 2020–2025, #7 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (164–90, 64.6%); its worst 2021 (154–116, 57.0%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	164–90–2	64.6%
2021	272	154–116–2	57.0%
2022	271	166–98–7	62.9%
2023	272	150–108–14	58.1%
2024	272	165–98–9	62.7%
2025	272	157–112–3	58.4%

NET EXP (Off + Def) in 2021 vs 2020

Bills lead at 13.49 — they ranked #7 last year. Jets are last at -13.33 — #31 last year.

The league average is 0, the same as last year.

Biggest riser: Cowboys, #24 → #3. Biggest faller: Ravens, #6 → #21.

Spread between first and last: 26.82; 21 teams are within 7.34 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DAL · +16.21

Biggest faller

BAL · −10.80

Most consistent

LAC · −0.01

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▲ 0.00

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	DAL	11.04	-5.17	+16.21
2	CIN	4.45	-9.21	+13.66
3	NE	9.00	-3.58	+12.57
4	DEN	1.48	-7.17	+8.65
5	PHI	3.04	-5.29	+8.34
6	ARI	7.63	1.35	+6.28
7	BUF	13.49	7.79	+5.70
8	JAX	-11.59	-14.67	+3.07
9	SF	4.99	2.43	+2.56
10	DET	-9.95	-11.77	+1.82
11	NYJ	-13.33	-14.26	+0.94
12	TB	11.80	11.05	+0.75
13	LV	-3.30	-3.98	+0.67
14	MIN	-0.84	-1.41	+0.57
15	LAC	2.47	2.49	−0.01
16	CLE	0.23	0.83	−0.60
17	IND	4.57	5.64	−1.07
18	TEN	2.98	4.58	−1.60
19	KC	5.98	8.14	−2.16
20	LAR	6.20	9.35	−3.15
21	CAR	-5.96	-2.77	−3.18
22	MIA	-1.65	1.60	−3.25
23	SEA	0.11	3.61	−3.51
24	GB	6.94	10.46	−3.51
25	NYG	-10.41	-5.86	−4.55
26	CHI	-6.96	-2.24	−4.72
27	NO	1.83	8.11	−6.28
28	HOU	-12.79	-6.41	−6.38
29	ATL	-9.12	-1.18	−7.95
30	WAS	-6.45	1.96	−8.41
31	PIT	-3.07	7.58	−10.65
32	BAL	-2.81	7.99	−10.80

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.23

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · -8.27

Biggest improver

JAX · +3.46/yr

Biggest decliner

TEN · −2.81/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.23	−0.83	7.79	13.49	10.46	10.72	10.00	9.01	3.17
2	SF	7.47	+0.71	2.43	4.99	12.41	14.56	1.59	0.92	15.42
3	KC	7.20	−0.04	8.14	5.98	11.68	5.65	2.99	3.90	12.03
4	BAL	6.03	+0.63	7.99	-2.81	1.07	14.01	13.54	1.62	6.77
5	LAR	4.97	+0.49	9.35	6.20	-4.89	3.77	-0.69	13.30	7.76
6	GB	4.79	−1.13	10.46	6.94	0.30	3.68	9.19	4.15	-1.15
7	TB	4.01	−1.97	11.05	11.80	-0.49	0.69	7.26	-0.65	-1.58
8	PHI	2.06	−0.45	-5.29	3.04	11.22	0.18	11.88	3.47	-10.05
9	DAL	1.96	−1.09	-5.17	11.04	7.61	12.55	-9.37	-1.75	-1.16
10	SEA	1.71	+0.70	3.61	0.11	-1.67	-3.54	0.89	9.51	3.06
11	MIN	1.55	+1.07	-1.41	-0.84	-0.25	0.29	7.69	-0.05	5.45
12	NE	0.73	+0.60	-3.58	9.00	1.74	-7.77	-10.14	11.68	4.15
13	PIT	0.62	−0.56	7.58	-3.07	-0.29	-0.13	0.16	-0.25	0.33
14	NO	0.22	−1.89	8.11	1.83	-0.78	4.84	-5.45	-0.89	-6.15
15	DET	0.21	+2.76	-11.77	-9.95	0.14	4.86	13.28	5.61	-0.73
16	LAC	0.17	−0.62	2.49	2.47	-0.53	-5.77	5.49	2.08	-5.05
17	CIN	0.13	+0.65	-9.21	4.45	6.96	-2.98	2.88	-7.21	6.03
18	DEN	-0.40	+1.08	-7.17	1.48	-2.02	-4.91	6.34	7.15	-3.66
19	MIA	-1.23	−1.82	1.60	-1.65	1.52	8.14	-0.33	-6.14	-11.74
20	IND	-1.26	−1.40	5.64	4.57	-9.50	-0.47	-3.58	2.37	-7.88
21	ATL	-2.05	+0.92	-1.18	-9.12	-2.93	-1.51	0.81	-1.56	1.13
22	JAX	-2.14	+3.46	-14.67	-11.59	3.53	0.33	-8.95	6.88	9.46
23	CLE	-2.92	−1.39	0.83	0.23	0.01	0.87	-13.14	-4.98	-4.29
24	WAS	-3.07	−0.50	1.96	-6.45	-1.00	-10.49	6.79	-8.07	-4.24
25	HOU	-3.09	+2.76	-6.41	-12.79	-11.82	-0.06	0.73	6.35	2.37
26	ARI	-3.11	−1.84	1.35	7.63	-6.94	-9.62	1.30	-5.87	-9.62
27	CHI	-3.15	+1.50	-2.24	-6.96	-10.37	-2.67	-5.71	1.16	4.76
28	TEN	-4.69	−2.81	4.58	2.98	-4.67	-3.85	-8.95	-14.08	-8.83
29	LV	-5.06	−0.51	-3.98	-3.30	-3.41	-2.97	-8.57	-11.79	-1.40
30	CAR	-5.36	+0.48	-2.77	-5.96	-3.36	-11.28	-13.53	-5.34	4.73
31	NYG	-6.64	+0.29	-5.86	-10.41	-1.43	-9.84	-10.62	-3.95	-4.37
32	NYJ	-8.27	+1.06	-14.26	-13.33	-1.27	-7.29	-3.78	-16.56	-1.37

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	7.79	13.49	10.46	10.72	10.00	9.01	3.17
TB	11.05	11.80	-0.49	0.69	7.26	-0.65	-1.58
DAL	-5.17	11.04	7.61	12.55	-9.37	-1.75	-1.16
NE	-3.58	9.00	1.74	-7.77	-10.14	11.68	4.15
ARI	1.35	7.63	-6.94	-9.62	1.30	-5.87	-9.62
GB	10.46	6.94	0.30	3.68	9.19	4.15	-1.15
LAR	9.35	6.20	-4.89	3.77	-0.69	13.30	7.76
KC	8.14	5.98	11.68	5.65	2.99	3.90	12.03
SF	2.43	4.99	12.41	14.56	1.59	0.92	15.42
IND	5.64	4.57	-9.50	-0.47	-3.58	2.37	-7.88
CIN	-9.21	4.45	6.96	-2.98	2.88	-7.21	6.03
PHI	-5.29	3.04	11.22	0.18	11.88	3.47	-10.05
TEN	4.58	2.98	-4.67	-3.85	-8.95	-14.08	-8.83
LAC	2.49	2.47	-0.53	-5.77	5.49	2.08	-5.05
NO	8.11	1.83	-0.78	4.84	-5.45	-0.89	-6.15
DEN	-7.17	1.48	-2.02	-4.91	6.34	7.15	-3.66
CLE	0.83	0.23	0.01	0.87	-13.14	-4.98	-4.29
SEA	3.61	0.11	-1.67	-3.54	0.89	9.51	3.06
MIN	-1.41	-0.84	-0.25	0.29	7.69	-0.05	5.45
MIA	1.60	-1.65	1.52	8.14	-0.33	-6.14	-11.74
BAL	7.99	-2.81	1.07	14.01	13.54	1.62	6.77
PIT	7.58	-3.07	-0.29	-0.13	0.16	-0.25	0.33
LV	-3.98	-3.30	-3.41	-2.97	-8.57	-11.79	-1.40
CAR	-2.77	-5.96	-3.36	-11.28	-13.53	-5.34	4.73
WAS	1.96	-6.45	-1.00	-10.49	6.79	-8.07	-4.24
CHI	-2.24	-6.96	-10.37	-2.67	-5.71	1.16	4.76
ATL	-1.18	-9.12	-2.93	-1.51	0.81	-1.56	1.13
DET	-11.77	-9.95	0.14	4.86	13.28	5.61	-0.73
NYG	-5.86	-10.41	-1.43	-9.84	-10.62	-3.95	-4.37
JAX	-14.67	-11.59	3.53	0.33	-8.95	6.88	9.46
HOU	-6.41	-12.79	-11.82	-0.06	0.73	6.35	2.37
NYJ	-14.26	-13.33	-1.27	-7.29	-3.78	-16.56	-1.37

NET EXP (Off + Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (11.42), 2019 Ravens (17.26), 2020 Buccaneers (11.05), 2021 Bills (13.49).

The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 17.26; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -15.17.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_exp
Side: net_exp
Family: NET (Off + Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.