NET EXP (Off + Def)
What NET EXP (Off + Def) is
Net expected points: the offense's total expected points contributed plus the defense's — both sides of the ball, each play valued by what it did to the chance of scoring, combined. A whole-team quality number that ignores the scoreboard's luck.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2024 the Ravens led at 13.54; the league average was 0.00.
League snapshot — 2024
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 13.54 | 17 |
| 2 | DET | 13.28 | 17 |
| 3 | PHI | 11.88 | 17 |
| 4 | BUF | 10.00 | 17 |
| 5 | GB | 9.19 | 17 |
| 6 | MIN | 7.69 | 17 |
| 7 | TB | 7.26 | 17 |
| 8 | WAS | 6.79 | 17 |
| 9 | DEN | 6.34 | 17 |
| 10 | LAC | 5.49 | 17 |
| 11 | KC | 2.99 | 17 |
| 12 | CIN | 2.88 | 17 |
| 13 | SF | 1.59 | 17 |
| 14 | ARI | 1.30 | 17 |
| 15 | SEA | 0.89 | 17 |
| 16 | ATL | 0.81 | 17 |
| 17 | HOU | 0.73 | 17 |
| 18 | PIT | 0.16 | 17 |
| 19 | MIA | -0.33 | 17 |
| 20 | LAR | -0.69 | 17 |
| 21 | IND | -3.58 | 17 |
| 22 | NYJ | -3.78 | 17 |
| 23 | NO | -5.45 | 17 |
| 24 | CHI | -5.71 | 17 |
| 25 | LV | -8.57 | 17 |
| 26 | JAX | -8.95 | 17 |
| 27 | TEN | -8.95 | 17 |
| 28 | DAL | -9.37 | 17 |
| 29 | NE | -10.14 | 17 |
| 30 | NYG | -10.62 | 17 |
| 31 | CLE | -13.14 | 17 |
| 32 | CAR | -13.53 | 17 |
At a glance — 2024
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2024
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 13.54 | 13.54 | 100% |
| 2 | DET | 13.28 | 13.28 | 96.8% |
| 3 | PHI | 11.88 | 11.88 | 93.5% |
| 4 | BUF | 10.00 | 10.00 | 90.3% |
| 5 | GB | 9.19 | 9.19 | 87.1% |
| 6 | MIN | 7.69 | 7.69 | 83.9% |
| 7 | TB | 7.26 | 7.26 | 80.6% |
| 8 | WAS | 6.79 | 6.79 | 77.4% |
| 9 | DEN | 6.34 | 6.34 | 74.2% |
| 10 | LAC | 5.49 | 5.49 | 71% |
| 11 | KC | 2.99 | 2.99 | 67.7% |
| 12 | CIN | 2.88 | 2.88 | 64.5% |
| 13 | SF | 1.59 | 1.59 | 61.3% |
| 14 | ARI | 1.30 | 1.30 | 58.1% |
| 15 | SEA | 0.89 | 0.89 | 54.8% |
| 16 | ATL | 0.81 | 0.81 | 51.6% |
| 17 | HOU | 0.73 | 0.73 | 48.4% |
| 18 | PIT | 0.16 | 0.16 | 45.2% |
| 19 | MIA | -0.33 | -0.33 | 41.9% |
| 20 | LAR | -0.69 | -0.69 | 38.7% |
| 21 | IND | -3.58 | -3.58 | 35.5% |
| 22 | NYJ | -3.78 | -3.78 | 32.3% |
| 23 | NO | -5.45 | -5.45 | 29% |
| 24 | CHI | -5.71 | -5.71 | 25.8% |
| 25 | LV | -8.57 | -8.57 | 22.6% |
| 26 | JAX | -8.95 | -8.95 | 19.4% |
| 27 | TEN | -8.95 | -8.95 | 16.1% |
| 28 | DAL | -9.37 | -9.37 | 12.9% |
| 29 | NE | -10.14 | -10.14 | 9.7% |
| 30 | NYG | -10.62 | -10.62 | 6.5% |
| 31 | CLE | -13.14 | -13.14 | 3.2% |
| 32 | CAR | -13.53 | -13.53 | 0% |
Does NET EXP (Off + Def) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 956–622–37 ATS (60.6%) across 2020–2025, #7 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (164–90, 64.6%); its worst 2021 (154–116, 57.0%).
For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 164–90–2 | 64.6% |
| 2021 | 272 | 154–116–2 | 57.0% |
| 2022 | 271 | 166–98–7 | 62.9% |
| 2023 | 272 | 150–108–14 | 58.1% |
| 2024 | 272 | 165–98–9 | 62.7% |
| 2025 | 272 | 157–112–3 | 58.4% |
NET EXP (Off + Def) in 2024 vs 2023
Ravens lead at 13.54 — they ranked #2 last year. Panthers are last at -13.53 — #32 last year.
The league average is 0.00, the same as last year.
Biggest riser: Commanders, #31 → #8. Biggest faller: Cowboys, #3 → #28.
Spread between first and last: 27.07; 19 teams are within 7.75 of the average.
Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023
Biggest movers from last season.
YoY by team — 2024 vs 2023
| Rank | Team | 2024 | 2023 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS | 6.79 | -10.49 | +17.28 |
| 2 | PHI | 11.88 | 0.18 | +11.71 |
| 3 | LAC | 5.49 | -5.77 | +11.26 |
| 4 | DEN | 6.34 | -4.91 | +11.24 |
| 5 | ARI | 1.30 | -9.62 | +10.92 |
| 6 | DET | 13.28 | 4.86 | +8.42 |
| 7 | MIN | 7.69 | 0.29 | +7.40 |
| 8 | TB | 7.26 | 0.69 | +6.57 |
| 9 | CIN | 2.88 | -2.98 | +5.86 |
| 10 | GB | 9.19 | 3.68 | +5.51 |
| 11 | SEA | 0.89 | -3.54 | +4.43 |
| 12 | NYJ | -3.78 | -7.29 | +3.51 |
| 13 | ATL | 0.81 | -1.51 | +2.32 |
| 14 | HOU | 0.73 | -0.06 | +0.79 |
| 15 | PIT | 0.16 | -0.13 | +0.29 |
| 16 | BAL | 13.54 | 14.01 | −0.47 |
| 17 | BUF | 10.00 | 10.72 | −0.72 |
| 18 | NYG | -10.62 | -9.84 | −0.77 |
| 19 | CAR | -13.53 | -11.28 | −2.25 |
| 20 | NE | -10.14 | -7.77 | −2.37 |
| 21 | KC | 2.99 | 5.65 | −2.66 |
| 22 | CHI | -5.71 | -2.67 | −3.05 |
| 23 | IND | -3.58 | -0.47 | −3.10 |
| 24 | LAR | -0.69 | 3.77 | −4.47 |
| 25 | TEN | -8.95 | -3.85 | −5.10 |
| 26 | LV | -8.57 | -2.97 | −5.59 |
| 27 | MIA | -0.33 | 8.14 | −8.48 |
| 28 | JAX | -8.95 | 0.33 | −9.27 |
| 29 | NO | -5.45 | 4.84 | −10.29 |
| 30 | SF | 1.59 | 14.56 | −12.97 |
| 31 | CLE | -13.14 | 0.87 | −14.01 |
| 32 | DAL | -9.37 | 12.55 | −21.92 |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 9.23 | −0.83 | 7.79 | 13.49 | 10.46 | 10.72 | 10.00 | 9.01 | 3.17 |
| 2 | SF | 7.47 | +0.71 | 2.43 | 4.99 | 12.41 | 14.56 | 1.59 | 0.92 | 15.42 |
| 3 | KC | 7.20 | −0.04 | 8.14 | 5.98 | 11.68 | 5.65 | 2.99 | 3.90 | 12.03 |
| 4 | BAL | 6.03 | +0.63 | 7.99 | -2.81 | 1.07 | 14.01 | 13.54 | 1.62 | 6.77 |
| 5 | LAR | 4.97 | +0.49 | 9.35 | 6.20 | -4.89 | 3.77 | -0.69 | 13.30 | 7.76 |
| 6 | GB | 4.79 | −1.13 | 10.46 | 6.94 | 0.30 | 3.68 | 9.19 | 4.15 | -1.15 |
| 7 | TB | 4.01 | −1.97 | 11.05 | 11.80 | -0.49 | 0.69 | 7.26 | -0.65 | -1.58 |
| 8 | PHI | 2.06 | −0.45 | -5.29 | 3.04 | 11.22 | 0.18 | 11.88 | 3.47 | -10.05 |
| 9 | DAL | 1.96 | −1.09 | -5.17 | 11.04 | 7.61 | 12.55 | -9.37 | -1.75 | -1.16 |
| 10 | SEA | 1.71 | +0.70 | 3.61 | 0.11 | -1.67 | -3.54 | 0.89 | 9.51 | 3.06 |
| 11 | MIN | 1.55 | +1.07 | -1.41 | -0.84 | -0.25 | 0.29 | 7.69 | -0.05 | 5.45 |
| 12 | NE | 0.73 | +0.60 | -3.58 | 9.00 | 1.74 | -7.77 | -10.14 | 11.68 | 4.15 |
| 13 | PIT | 0.62 | −0.56 | 7.58 | -3.07 | -0.29 | -0.13 | 0.16 | -0.25 | 0.33 |
| 14 | NO | 0.22 | −1.89 | 8.11 | 1.83 | -0.78 | 4.84 | -5.45 | -0.89 | -6.15 |
| 15 | DET | 0.21 | +2.76 | -11.77 | -9.95 | 0.14 | 4.86 | 13.28 | 5.61 | -0.73 |
| 16 | LAC | 0.17 | −0.62 | 2.49 | 2.47 | -0.53 | -5.77 | 5.49 | 2.08 | -5.05 |
| 17 | CIN | 0.13 | +0.65 | -9.21 | 4.45 | 6.96 | -2.98 | 2.88 | -7.21 | 6.03 |
| 18 | DEN | -0.40 | +1.08 | -7.17 | 1.48 | -2.02 | -4.91 | 6.34 | 7.15 | -3.66 |
| 19 | MIA | -1.23 | −1.82 | 1.60 | -1.65 | 1.52 | 8.14 | -0.33 | -6.14 | -11.74 |
| 20 | IND | -1.26 | −1.40 | 5.64 | 4.57 | -9.50 | -0.47 | -3.58 | 2.37 | -7.88 |
| 21 | ATL | -2.05 | +0.92 | -1.18 | -9.12 | -2.93 | -1.51 | 0.81 | -1.56 | 1.13 |
| 22 | JAX | -2.14 | +3.46 | -14.67 | -11.59 | 3.53 | 0.33 | -8.95 | 6.88 | 9.46 |
| 23 | CLE | -2.92 | −1.39 | 0.83 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 0.87 | -13.14 | -4.98 | -4.29 |
| 24 | WAS | -3.07 | −0.50 | 1.96 | -6.45 | -1.00 | -10.49 | 6.79 | -8.07 | -4.24 |
| 25 | HOU | -3.09 | +2.76 | -6.41 | -12.79 | -11.82 | -0.06 | 0.73 | 6.35 | 2.37 |
| 26 | ARI | -3.11 | −1.84 | 1.35 | 7.63 | -6.94 | -9.62 | 1.30 | -5.87 | -9.62 |
| 27 | CHI | -3.15 | +1.50 | -2.24 | -6.96 | -10.37 | -2.67 | -5.71 | 1.16 | 4.76 |
| 28 | TEN | -4.69 | −2.81 | 4.58 | 2.98 | -4.67 | -3.85 | -8.95 | -14.08 | -8.83 |
| 29 | LV | -5.06 | −0.51 | -3.98 | -3.30 | -3.41 | -2.97 | -8.57 | -11.79 | -1.40 |
| 30 | CAR | -5.36 | +0.48 | -2.77 | -5.96 | -3.36 | -11.28 | -13.53 | -5.34 | 4.73 |
| 31 | NYG | -6.64 | +0.29 | -5.86 | -10.41 | -1.43 | -9.84 | -10.62 | -3.95 | -4.37 |
| 32 | NYJ | -8.27 | +1.06 | -14.26 | -13.33 | -1.27 | -7.29 | -3.78 | -16.56 | -1.37 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 7.99 | -2.81 | 1.07 | 14.01 | 13.54 | 1.62 | 6.77 |
| DET | -11.77 | -9.95 | 0.14 | 4.86 | 13.28 | 5.61 | -0.73 |
| PHI | -5.29 | 3.04 | 11.22 | 0.18 | 11.88 | 3.47 | -10.05 |
| BUF | 7.79 | 13.49 | 10.46 | 10.72 | 10.00 | 9.01 | 3.17 |
| GB | 10.46 | 6.94 | 0.30 | 3.68 | 9.19 | 4.15 | -1.15 |
| MIN | -1.41 | -0.84 | -0.25 | 0.29 | 7.69 | -0.05 | 5.45 |
| TB | 11.05 | 11.80 | -0.49 | 0.69 | 7.26 | -0.65 | -1.58 |
| WAS | 1.96 | -6.45 | -1.00 | -10.49 | 6.79 | -8.07 | -4.24 |
| DEN | -7.17 | 1.48 | -2.02 | -4.91 | 6.34 | 7.15 | -3.66 |
| LAC | 2.49 | 2.47 | -0.53 | -5.77 | 5.49 | 2.08 | -5.05 |
| KC | 8.14 | 5.98 | 11.68 | 5.65 | 2.99 | 3.90 | 12.03 |
| CIN | -9.21 | 4.45 | 6.96 | -2.98 | 2.88 | -7.21 | 6.03 |
| SF | 2.43 | 4.99 | 12.41 | 14.56 | 1.59 | 0.92 | 15.42 |
| ARI | 1.35 | 7.63 | -6.94 | -9.62 | 1.30 | -5.87 | -9.62 |
| SEA | 3.61 | 0.11 | -1.67 | -3.54 | 0.89 | 9.51 | 3.06 |
| ATL | -1.18 | -9.12 | -2.93 | -1.51 | 0.81 | -1.56 | 1.13 |
| HOU | -6.41 | -12.79 | -11.82 | -0.06 | 0.73 | 6.35 | 2.37 |
| PIT | 7.58 | -3.07 | -0.29 | -0.13 | 0.16 | -0.25 | 0.33 |
| MIA | 1.60 | -1.65 | 1.52 | 8.14 | -0.33 | -6.14 | -11.74 |
| LAR | 9.35 | 6.20 | -4.89 | 3.77 | -0.69 | 13.30 | 7.76 |
| IND | 5.64 | 4.57 | -9.50 | -0.47 | -3.58 | 2.37 | -7.88 |
| NYJ | -14.26 | -13.33 | -1.27 | -7.29 | -3.78 | -16.56 | -1.37 |
| NO | 8.11 | 1.83 | -0.78 | 4.84 | -5.45 | -0.89 | -6.15 |
| CHI | -2.24 | -6.96 | -10.37 | -2.67 | -5.71 | 1.16 | 4.76 |
| LV | -3.98 | -3.30 | -3.41 | -2.97 | -8.57 | -11.79 | -1.40 |
| JAX | -14.67 | -11.59 | 3.53 | 0.33 | -8.95 | 6.88 | 9.46 |
| TEN | 4.58 | 2.98 | -4.67 | -3.85 | -8.95 | -14.08 | -8.83 |
| DAL | -5.17 | 11.04 | 7.61 | 12.55 | -9.37 | -1.75 | -1.16 |
| NE | -3.58 | 9.00 | 1.74 | -7.77 | -10.14 | 11.68 | 4.15 |
| NYG | -5.86 | -10.41 | -1.43 | -9.84 | -10.62 | -3.95 | -4.37 |
| CLE | 0.83 | 0.23 | 0.01 | 0.87 | -13.14 | -4.98 | -4.29 |
| CAR | -2.77 | -5.96 | -3.36 | -11.28 | -13.53 | -5.34 | 4.73 |
NET EXP (Off + Def) since 2018
Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (11.42), 2019 Ravens (17.26), 2020 Buccaneers (11.05), 2021 Bills (13.49), 2022 49ers (12.41), 2023 49ers (14.56), 2024 Ravens (13.54).
Ravens have led this stat 2 of 7 seasons.
The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 17.26; the worst Cardinals 2018 at -15.17.
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- net_exp
- Side
- net_exp
- Family
- NET (Off + Def)
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.