Vegas MIN -10 — MIA covered
What the site's algorithm picked
It took MIA against MIN -11.5 — correct.
At the time of the pick, the algorithm made it MIN −10.51 against a Vegas line of MIN −11.5 — it wouldn't lay more than 10.51, so it took MIA +11.5.
Opened MIN -11.5 — the line the pick was made against.
Closed MIN -10 — MIN favoured by 1.5 less since first recorded
Line history: MIN -11.5 ×4 (Sep 29–Sep 29) · MIN -10 ×30 (Oct 4–Oct 13)
The line has since moved to MIN -10. At that number the edge is on MIN — this one is close to a coin flip.
From its Week 4 2026 power ratings, computed from 2026 season stats.
Scoring offense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Scoring defense
Percentile against the league. Outward is better; the inner ring is the median.
Passing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Rushing
Bubble size is touchdowns.
Drives
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Conversions
Longer is better. 50 is the league median.
Scoring plays
Betting record — 2026
| Split | MIA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | SU 0-5 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 5-0 · ATS 4-1 · O/U 1-4 |
| At home | SU 0-2 · ATS 0-1-1 · O/U 1-1 | SU 2-0 · ATS 1-1 · O/U 1-1 |
| On the road | SU 0-3 · ATS 1-2 · O/U 1-2 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 0-3 |
| As favourite | SU 4-0 · ATS 3-1 · O/U 1-3 | |
| As underdog | SU 0-5 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 |
| In division | SU 2-0 · ATS 2-0 · O/U 1-1 | |
| Out of division | SU 0-5 · ATS 1-3-1 · O/U 2-3 | SU 3-0 · ATS 2-1 · O/U 0-3 |
| Pick'em (±3) | SU 0-1 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | SU 3-0 · ATS 3-0 · O/U 1-2 |
| Favoured by 7+ | SU 1-0 · ATS 0-1 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Dog by 3-7 | SU 1-0 · ATS 1-0 · O/U 0-1 | |
| Dog by 7+ | SU 0-4 · ATS 1-2-1 · O/U 2-2 |
SU = straight up · ATS = against the spread · O/U = over-under. Records count GAMES PLAYED.
Box score
| Team stats | MIA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st downs | ||
| Total | 8 | 20 |
| Passing | 3 | 13 |
| Rushing | 5 | 6 |
| From penalties | 1 | 1 |
| Efficiency | ||
| Third down | 2 of 9 | 8 of 17 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | |
| Volume | ||
| Total yards | 206 | 370 |
| Total plays | 37 | 69 |
| Yards per play | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| Drives | 9 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Passing yards | 85 | 247 |
| Completions | 9-19 | 27-41 |
| Yards per pass | 4.5 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks (yards lost) | 2 (8) | 4 (34) |
| Rushing | ||
| Rushing yards | 121 | 123 |
| Attempts | 18 | 31 |
| Yards per rush | 6.7 | 4.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Red zone | ||
| Scores | 1 of 2 | 0 of 3 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties (yards) | 9 (55) | 11 (85) |
| Turnovers | ||
| Total | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
Game stats from database N.