What Red zone pct is

Red-zone touchdown rate: red-zone trips that ended in a touchdown, divided by red-zone trips, as a percentage. The difference between seven points and three, every time the offense gets close.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Bills led at 55.81; the league average was 45.71.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

BUF · 55.81

League average

45.71

Best to worst

55.81

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	55.81	17
2	NE	54.67	17
3	LAC	54.65	17
4	SF	54.41	17
5	BAL	53.97	17
6	TB	52.87	17
7	TEN	52.70	17
8	GB	52.38	17
9	MIA	51.72	17
10	PHI	50.67	17
11	CLE	50.00	17
12	NO	50.00	17
13	ARI	48.78	17
14	KC	47.67	17
15	ATL	47.54	17
16	DEN	47.54	17
17	MIN	47.22	17
18	NYJ	46.67	17
19	CAR	46.43	17
20	PIT	45.76	17
21	LV	45.59	17
22	SEA	45.59	17
23	DAL	44.09	17
24	IND	43.90	17
25	WAS	43.75	17
26	CIN	41.56	17
27	CHI	40.00	17
28	JAX	40.00	17
29	DET	36.07	17
30	HOU	36.00	17
31	NYG	34.69	17
32	LAR	0.00	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 55.81

League laggard

LAR · 0.00

League average

45.71

Spread (max − min)

55.81

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	55.81	10.10	100%
2	NE	54.67	8.96	96.8%
3	LAC	54.65	8.94	93.5%
4	SF	54.41	8.70	90.3%
5	BAL	53.97	8.26	87.1%
6	TB	52.87	7.16	83.9%
7	TEN	52.70	6.99	80.6%
8	GB	52.38	6.67	77.4%
9	MIA	51.72	6.01	74.2%
10	PHI	50.67	4.96	71%
11	CLE	50.00	4.29	67.7%
12	NO	50.00	4.29	64.5%
13	ARI	48.78	3.07	61.3%
14	KC	47.67	1.96	58.1%
15	ATL	47.54	1.83	54.8%
16	DEN	47.54	1.83	51.6%
17	MIN	47.22	1.51	48.4%
18	NYJ	46.67	0.96	45.2%
19	CAR	46.43	0.72	41.9%
20	PIT	45.76	0.05	38.7%
21	LV	45.59	-0.12	35.5%
22	SEA	45.59	-0.12	32.3%
23	DAL	44.09	-1.62	29%
24	IND	43.90	-1.81	25.8%
25	WAS	43.75	-1.96	22.6%
26	CIN	41.56	-4.15	19.4%
27	CHI	40.00	-5.71	16.1%
28	JAX	40.00	-5.71	12.9%
29	DET	36.07	-9.64	9.7%
30	HOU	36.00	-9.71	6.5%
31	NYG	34.69	-11.02	3.2%
32	LAR	0.00	-45.71	0%

Does Red zone pct matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 826–752–37 ATS (52.3%) across 2020–2025, #162 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (153–111, 58.0%); its worst 2024 (129–134, 49.0%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	140–114–2	55.1%
2021	272	139–131–2	51.5%
2022	271	153–111–7	58.0%
2023	272	131–127–14	50.8%
2024	272	129–134–9	49.0%
2025	272	134–135–3	49.8%

Red zone pct in 2021 vs 2020

Bills lead at 55.81 — they ranked #19 last year. Rams are last at 0.00 — #32 last year.

The league average is 45.71, down 1.49 from 47.20 last year.

Biggest riser: Patriots, #21 → #2. Biggest faller: Lions, #7 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 55.81; 29 teams are within 9.94 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NYJ · +15.19

Biggest faller

DET · −20.18

Most consistent

LAR · 0.00

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -1.49

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	NYJ	46.67	31.48	+15.19
2	NE	54.67	44.07	+10.60
3	BUF	55.81	46.07	+9.75
4	LAC	54.65	46.38	+8.27
5	PHI	50.67	43.75	+6.92
6	BAL	53.97	50.00	+3.97
7	ATL	47.54	43.66	+3.88
8	CAR	46.43	42.65	+3.78
9	TB	52.87	49.41	+3.46
10	MIA	51.72	48.57	+3.15
11	LV	45.59	42.86	+2.73
12	DAL	44.09	42.03	+2.06
13	IND	43.90	42.17	+1.73
14	LAR	0.00	0.00	0.00
15	CIN	41.56	41.67	−0.11
16	KC	47.67	48.15	−0.47
17	DEN	47.54	48.21	−0.67
18	WAS	43.75	45.76	−2.01
19	PIT	45.76	47.89	−2.12
20	NYG	34.69	38.00	−3.31
21	SF	54.41	57.81	−3.40
22	ARI	48.78	53.52	−4.74
23	HOU	36.00	41.18	−5.18
24	CHI	40.00	46.97	−6.97
25	CLE	50.00	57.97	−7.97
26	TEN	52.70	61.54	−8.84
27	GB	52.38	61.54	−9.16
28	SEA	45.59	56.16	−10.58
29	JAX	40.00	50.91	−10.91
30	MIN	47.22	60.27	−13.05
31	NO	50.00	63.41	−13.41
32	DET	36.07	56.25	−20.18

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

SF · 55.00

Multi-year laggard

LAR · 0.00

Biggest improver

IND · +3.17/yr

Biggest decliner

CLE · −3.64/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	SF	55.00	+1.88	57.81	54.41	40.48	52.94	51.43	59.72	68.18
2	DET	53.00	+2.33	56.25	36.07	55.70	48.28	55.43	51.25	68.00
3	KC	51.28	+0.68	48.15	47.67	61.45	46.48	47.30	50.75	57.14
4	BUF	51.09	+1.27	46.07	55.81	40.70	51.90	55.81	51.76	55.56
5	BAL	50.67	+0.80	50.00	53.97	40.91	51.22	59.52	35.44	63.64
6	DAL	49.85	+2.97	42.03	44.09	58.33	45.56	37.10	46.84	75.00
7	ARI	49.71	+0.52	53.52	48.78	44.64	48.21	46.38	48.57	57.89
8	NO	48.99	−0.54	63.41	50.00	39.68	45.83	41.67	33.90	68.42
9	GB	48.81	−1.99	61.54	52.38	40.85	44.16	51.85	50.00	40.91
10	MIN	48.01	−2.18	60.27	47.22	53.33	39.39	44.16	51.72	40.00
11	WAS	47.88	+0.47	45.76	43.75	44.07	52.63	54.88	55.17	38.89
12	TEN	47.84	−2.48	61.54	52.70	49.06	39.66	40.35	45.45	46.15
13	PHI	47.80	+0.26	43.75	50.67	49.38	47.37	44.71	51.67	47.06
14	DEN	47.79	+0.62	48.21	47.54	46.81	41.18	50.70	47.14	52.94
15	MIA	47.77	−0.98	48.57	51.72	48.48	46.99	50.00	45.76	42.86
16	LAC	47.41	−0.03	46.38	54.65	46.58	45.00	41.54	40.58	57.14
17	CIN	46.81	+0.45	41.67	41.56	52.86	50.00	48.75	53.73	39.13
18	ATL	46.77	+1.29	43.66	47.54	46.88	39.66	43.28	53.45	52.94
19	CAR	46.66	+1.17	42.65	46.43	46.43	43.18	50.82	42.11	55.00
20	IND	46.62	+3.17	42.17	43.90	40.00	39.44	41.18	57.14	62.50
21	JAX	46.12	+0.68	50.91	40.00	44.44	38.57	49.09	52.44	47.37
22	TB	45.28	−1.21	49.41	52.87	43.33	33.85	53.57	41.79	42.11
23	CHI	43.93	−1.14	46.97	40.00	45.90	50.85	46.00	44.44	33.33
24	SEA	43.72	−0.96	56.16	45.59	34.67	38.81	41.94	41.03	47.83
25	CLE	43.11	−3.64	57.97	50.00	44.12	40.91	34.62	40.82	33.33
26	PIT	43.02	−1.59	47.89	45.76	47.27	37.74	42.42	44.78	35.29
27	NE	41.88	−1.12	44.07	54.67	29.23	47.73	35.59	41.86	40.00
28	NYG	41.37	+1.52	38.00	34.69	53.45	35.19	33.33	38.67	56.25
29	LV	41.30	+0.29	42.86	45.59	34.85	38.71	39.29	40.00	47.83
30	HOU	41.24	+1.05	41.18	36.00	40.00	42.86	42.42	36.23	50.00
31	NYJ	34.99	−0.95	31.48	46.67	36.21	23.53	46.15	31.48	29.41
32	LAR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	46.07	55.81	40.70	51.90	55.81	51.76	55.56
NE	44.07	54.67	29.23	47.73	35.59	41.86	40.00
LAC	46.38	54.65	46.58	45.00	41.54	40.58	57.14
SF	57.81	54.41	40.48	52.94	51.43	59.72	68.18
BAL	50.00	53.97	40.91	51.22	59.52	35.44	63.64
TB	49.41	52.87	43.33	33.85	53.57	41.79	42.11
TEN	61.54	52.70	49.06	39.66	40.35	45.45	46.15
GB	61.54	52.38	40.85	44.16	51.85	50.00	40.91
MIA	48.57	51.72	48.48	46.99	50.00	45.76	42.86
PHI	43.75	50.67	49.38	47.37	44.71	51.67	47.06
CLE	57.97	50.00	44.12	40.91	34.62	40.82	33.33
NO	63.41	50.00	39.68	45.83	41.67	33.90	68.42
ARI	53.52	48.78	44.64	48.21	46.38	48.57	57.89
KC	48.15	47.67	61.45	46.48	47.30	50.75	57.14
ATL	43.66	47.54	46.88	39.66	43.28	53.45	52.94
DEN	48.21	47.54	46.81	41.18	50.70	47.14	52.94
MIN	60.27	47.22	53.33	39.39	44.16	51.72	40.00
NYJ	31.48	46.67	36.21	23.53	46.15	31.48	29.41
CAR	42.65	46.43	46.43	43.18	50.82	42.11	55.00
PIT	47.89	45.76	47.27	37.74	42.42	44.78	35.29
LV	42.86	45.59	34.85	38.71	39.29	40.00	47.83
SEA	56.16	45.59	34.67	38.81	41.94	41.03	47.83
DAL	42.03	44.09	58.33	45.56	37.10	46.84	75.00
IND	42.17	43.90	40.00	39.44	41.18	57.14	62.50
WAS	45.76	43.75	44.07	52.63	54.88	55.17	38.89
CIN	41.67	41.56	52.86	50.00	48.75	53.73	39.13
CHI	46.97	40.00	45.90	50.85	46.00	44.44	33.33
JAX	50.91	40.00	44.44	38.57	49.09	52.44	47.37
DET	56.25	36.07	55.70	48.28	55.43	51.25	68.00
HOU	41.18	36.00	40.00	42.86	42.42	36.23	50.00
NYG	38.00	34.69	53.45	35.19	33.33	38.67	56.25
LAR	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Red zone pct since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Colts (61.33), 2019 Colts (53.85), 2020 Saints (63.41), 2021 Bills (55.81).

Colts have led this stat 2 of 4 seasons.

The best season on record is Saints 2020 at 63.41; the worst Rams 2018 at 0.00.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_red_zone_pct
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.