Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Third down pct (allowed), 2026

Value33.87
Rank#6 of 32
League average40.52
Rank in 2025#13 of 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — every stat for 2026, ranked →

What Third down pct (allowed) is

Third-down conversion rate allowed: third downs opponents converted divided by third downs they faced against this defense, as a percentage. The share of third downs the defense failed to get off the field on.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

Through Week 6 of 2026, the Vikings lead at 23.81; the league average is 40.52.

League snapshot — 2026

League leader

MIN · 23.81

League average

40.52

Best to worst

31.55

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	MIN	23.81	5
2	CHI	26.00	5
3	IND	31.03	5
4	LAC	32.26	5
5	SEA	33.82	5
6	TB	33.87	5
7	NYJ	34.43	5
8	PIT	34.43	5
9	LAR	34.48	5
10	JAX	36.84	5
11	NE	38.33	5
12	KC	38.89	4
13	HOU	39.06	5
14	TEN	39.06	5
15	PHI	39.73	5
16	SF	40.85	5
17	ATL	41.43	5
18	CLE	41.43	5
19	BAL	41.54	5
20	CAR	42.59	4
21	LV	42.86	5
22	BUF	43.28	5
23	ARI	43.86	5
24	WAS	45.45	5
25	DEN	45.83	5
26	CIN	46.03	5
27	NYG	46.43	5
28	GB	47.83	5
29	NO	50.00	5
30	DET	51.43	5
31	DAL	54.55	5
32	MIA	55.36	5

At a glance — 2026

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

MIN · 23.81

League laggard

MIA · 55.36

League average

40.52

Spread (max − min)

31.55

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	MIN	23.81	-16.72	100%
2	CHI	26.00	-14.52	96.8%
3	IND	31.03	-9.49	93.5%
4	LAC	32.26	-8.27	90.3%
5	SEA	33.82	-6.70	87.1%
6	TB	33.87	-6.65	83.9%
7	NYJ	34.43	-6.10	80.6%
8	PIT	34.43	-6.10	77.4%
9	LAR	34.48	-6.04	74.2%
10	JAX	36.84	-3.68	71%
11	NE	38.33	-2.19	67.7%
12	KC	38.89	-1.64	64.5%
13	HOU	39.06	-1.46	61.3%
14	TEN	39.06	-1.46	58.1%
15	PHI	39.73	-0.80	54.8%
16	SF	40.85	0.32	51.6%
17	ATL	41.43	0.90	48.4%
18	CLE	41.43	0.90	45.2%
19	BAL	41.54	1.01	41.9%
20	CAR	42.59	2.07	38.7%
21	LV	42.86	2.33	35.5%
22	BUF	43.28	2.76	32.3%
23	ARI	43.86	3.34	29%
24	WAS	45.45	4.93	25.8%
25	DEN	45.83	5.31	22.6%
26	CIN	46.03	5.51	19.4%
27	NYG	46.43	5.90	16.1%
28	GB	47.83	7.30	12.9%
29	NO	50.00	9.48	9.7%
30	DET	51.43	10.90	6.5%
31	DAL	54.55	14.02	3.2%
32	MIA	55.36	14.83	0%

Does Third down pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 803–775–37 ATS (50.9%) across 2020–2025, #225 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (141–113, 55.5%); its worst 2023 (115–143, 44.6%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	141–113–2	55.5%
2021	272	143–127–2	53.0%
2022	271	130–134–7	49.2%
2023	272	115–143–14	44.6%
2024	272	137–126–9	52.1%
2025	272	137–132–3	50.9%

Third down pct (allowed) in 2026 vs 2025

Vikings lead at 23.81 — they ranked #3 last year. Dolphins are last at 55.36 — #18 last year.

The league average is 40.52, up 0.27 from 40.25 last year.

Biggest riser: Colts, #26 → #3. Biggest faller: Saints, #5 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 31.55; 23 teams are within 7.29 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIA · +14.78

Biggest faller

CHI · −14.84

Most consistent

NE · −0.36

League trend 2026 vs 2025

▲ 0.27

Rank	Team	2026	2025	Δ
1	MIA	55.36	40.58	+14.78
2	DET	51.43	37.26	+14.16
3	NO	50.00	35.89	+14.11
4	DEN	45.83	33.76	+12.08
5	GB	47.83	40.55	+7.27
6	DAL	54.55	47.50	+7.05
7	NYG	46.43	40.00	+6.43
8	CLE	41.43	37.22	+4.21
9	BAL	41.54	38.16	+3.38
10	WAS	45.45	42.18	+3.27
11	CIN	46.03	44.06	+1.97
12	HOU	39.06	37.10	+1.96
13	ATL	41.43	40.09	+1.34
14	BUF	43.28	42.36	+0.92
15	SEA	33.82	33.05	+0.78
16	NE	38.33	38.69	−0.36
17	SF	40.85	41.27	−0.42
18	ARI	43.86	44.78	−0.92
19	PHI	39.73	41.59	−1.87
20	LAR	34.48	36.44	−1.96
21	TEN	39.06	41.50	−2.44
22	LAC	32.26	35.18	−2.92
23	JAX	36.84	40.55	−3.71
24	LV	42.86	46.70	−3.84
25	NYJ	34.43	38.94	−4.52
26	KC	38.89	44.14	−5.26
27	CAR	42.59	48.08	−5.48
28	TB	33.87	39.50	−5.63
29	PIT	34.43	42.55	−8.13
30	MIN	23.81	34.53	−10.72
31	IND	31.03	43.06	−12.02
32	CHI	26.00	40.84	−14.84

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 36.00

Multi-year laggard

CAR · 44.84

Biggest improver

LAC · −2.50/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · +2.24/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	36.00	−2.05	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
2	BAL	37.46	+1.08	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
3	PIT	38.29	−0.16	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
4	LAR	38.44	−0.48	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
5	TB	38.53	−0.65	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
6	CLE	38.57	−0.68	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
7	DEN	38.96	−0.18	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
8	LAC	39.73	−2.50	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26
9	NE	39.73	−0.17	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
10	BUF	39.74	+1.44	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
11	CHI	39.86	−1.76	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00
12	NYJ	39.91	−1.63	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
13	IND	39.96	−0.91	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
14	NO	40.10	+1.10	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
15	SEA	40.17	−2.11	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
16	HOU	40.23	−1.61	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
17	SF	40.79	+0.52	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
18	TEN	40.81	−0.83	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
19	PHI	41.00	−0.30	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
20	KC	41.06	+0.04	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
21	NYG	41.11	+0.27	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
22	MIA	41.14	+2.24	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36
23	GB	41.33	+0.69	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
24	WAS	41.37	+0.40	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
25	JAX	41.65	−1.08	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
26	DAL	42.49	+1.61	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
27	CIN	42.82	+0.45	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
28	ATL	42.86	−0.77	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
29	DET	42.86	−0.78	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
30	ARI	43.13	+0.88	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86
31	LV	43.71	−0.36	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
32	CAR	44.84	+0.11	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	40.66	36.45	38.89	41.74	35.94	34.53	23.81
CHI	38.28	41.35	49.75	44.59	38.21	40.84	26.00
IND	43.07	41.35	38.12	37.66	45.41	43.06	31.03
LAC	44.55	50.23	39.20	40.52	36.16	35.18	32.26
SEA	47.75	39.29	42.86	46.32	38.12	33.05	33.82
TB	40.20	38.94	38.14	41.15	37.91	39.50	33.87
NYJ	45.73	45.21	38.43	37.50	39.15	38.94	34.43
PIT	37.84	37.23	40.65	39.66	35.64	42.55	34.43
LAR	35.58	41.70	40.78	38.94	41.18	36.44	34.48
JAX	45.08	43.84	43.38	37.50	44.39	40.55	36.84
NE	41.53	37.80	40.76	37.34	43.66	38.69	38.33
KC	41.94	40.91	39.82	38.01	43.72	44.14	38.89
HOU	48.00	44.12	40.28	37.17	35.91	37.10	39.06
TEN	52.36	37.14	34.38	38.96	42.25	41.50	39.06
PHI	39.42	44.19	39.55	47.01	35.55	41.59	39.73
SF	36.55	41.55	40.93	41.12	43.26	41.27	40.85
ATL	41.97	49.53	46.54	34.98	45.50	40.09	41.43
CLE	44.78	39.91	40.57	29.26	36.82	37.22	41.43
BAL	34.74	35.15	35.75	37.25	39.65	38.16	41.54
CAR	51.02	38.43	41.85	41.04	50.91	48.08	42.59
LV	49.50	40.79	42.79	42.48	40.83	46.70	42.86
BUF	39.58	31.46	37.50	38.97	45.00	42.36	43.28
ARI	40.10	38.65	43.07	47.32	44.17	44.78	43.86
WAS	39.15	49.33	32.54	41.78	39.13	42.18	45.45
DEN	41.01	45.50	34.25	34.00	38.36	33.76	45.83
CIN	43.54	42.47	40.09	41.51	42.03	44.06	46.03
NYG	45.27	40.89	35.47	38.32	41.40	40.00	46.43
GB	40.00	42.86	38.22	41.33	38.54	40.55	47.83
NO	38.54	37.39	41.88	35.75	41.26	35.89	50.00
DET	48.68	45.54	46.53	37.62	32.97	37.26	51.43
DAL	47.85	34.39	38.26	37.91	36.95	47.50	54.55
MIA	31.69	41.85	42.17	39.72	36.59	40.58	55.36

Third down pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Vikings (30.21), 2019 Patriots (24.23), 2020 Dolphins (31.69), 2021 Bills (31.46), 2022 Commanders (32.54), 2023 Browns (29.26), 2024 Lions (32.97), 2025 Seahawks (33.05), 2026 Vikings (23.81).

Vikings have led this stat 2 of 9 seasons.

The best season on record is Vikings 2026 at 23.81; the worst Dolphins 2026 at 55.36.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_conversions_third_down_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.