Defensive: Passing · Exp pts pass def (allowed)
What Exp pts pass def (allowed) is
Expected points allowed through the air: for every opponent pass play, the change in expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. It values each play by the situation it created, not just the yards — a defense that gives up yards between the twenties but holds on third down scores well here.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2024 the Broncos led at 4.83; the league average was -0.85.
League snapshot — 2024
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 4.83 | 17 |
| 2 | DET | 3.31 | 17 |
| 3 | PHI | 3.15 | 17 |
| 4 | LAC | 2.54 | 17 |
| 5 | HOU | 2.20 | 17 |
| 6 | GB | 2.18 | 17 |
| 7 | MIN | 2.15 | 17 |
| 8 | BAL | 0.18 | 17 |
| 9 | SEA | 0.18 | 17 |
| 10 | NO | 0.17 | 17 |
| 11 | CHI | -0.13 | 17 |
| 12 | MIA | -0.30 | 17 |
| 13 | PIT | -0.56 | 17 |
| 14 | SF | -0.75 | 17 |
| 15 | WAS | -0.76 | 17 |
| 16 | DAL | -0.99 | 17 |
| 17 | TEN | -1.22 | 17 |
| 18 | NYJ | -1.28 | 17 |
| 19 | CIN | -1.51 | 17 |
| 20 | KC | -1.59 | 17 |
| 21 | TB | -1.77 | 17 |
| 22 | CLE | -1.82 | 17 |
| 23 | BUF | -1.82 | 17 |
| 24 | ARI | -2.16 | 17 |
| 25 | LV | -2.34 | 17 |
| 26 | IND | -2.59 | 17 |
| 27 | LAR | -2.60 | 17 |
| 28 | NYG | -3.39 | 17 |
| 29 | ATL | -3.59 | 17 |
| 30 | NE | -4.38 | 17 |
| 31 | CAR | -5.28 | 17 |
| 32 | JAX | -7.16 | 17 |
At a glance — 2024
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2024
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 4.83 | 5.67 | 100% |
| 2 | DET | 3.31 | 4.16 | 96.8% |
| 3 | PHI | 3.15 | 4.00 | 93.5% |
| 4 | LAC | 2.54 | 3.39 | 90.3% |
| 5 | HOU | 2.20 | 3.04 | 87.1% |
| 6 | GB | 2.18 | 3.02 | 83.9% |
| 7 | MIN | 2.15 | 2.99 | 80.6% |
| 8 | BAL | 0.18 | 1.03 | 77.4% |
| 9 | SEA | 0.18 | 1.03 | 74.2% |
| 10 | NO | 0.17 | 1.01 | 71% |
| 11 | CHI | -0.13 | 0.72 | 67.7% |
| 12 | MIA | -0.30 | 0.55 | 64.5% |
| 13 | PIT | -0.56 | 0.29 | 61.3% |
| 14 | SF | -0.75 | 0.10 | 58.1% |
| 15 | WAS | -0.76 | 0.09 | 54.8% |
| 16 | DAL | -0.99 | -0.15 | 51.6% |
| 17 | TEN | -1.22 | -0.37 | 48.4% |
| 18 | NYJ | -1.28 | -0.43 | 45.2% |
| 19 | CIN | -1.51 | -0.66 | 41.9% |
| 20 | KC | -1.59 | -0.74 | 38.7% |
| 21 | TB | -1.77 | -0.92 | 35.5% |
| 22 | CLE | -1.82 | -0.98 | 32.3% |
| 23 | BUF | -1.82 | -0.98 | 29% |
| 24 | ARI | -2.16 | -1.32 | 25.8% |
| 25 | LV | -2.34 | -1.49 | 22.6% |
| 26 | IND | -2.59 | -1.75 | 19.4% |
| 27 | LAR | -2.60 | -1.75 | 16.1% |
| 28 | NYG | -3.39 | -2.54 | 12.9% |
| 29 | ATL | -3.59 | -2.74 | 9.7% |
| 30 | NE | -4.38 | -3.53 | 6.5% |
| 31 | CAR | -5.28 | -4.43 | 3.2% |
| 32 | JAX | -7.16 | -6.32 | 0% |
Does Exp pts pass def (allowed) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 747–831–37 ATS (47.3%) across 2020–2025, #293 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (114–149, 43.3%).
For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 124–130–2 | 48.8% |
| 2021 | 272 | 128–142–2 | 47.4% |
| 2022 | 271 | 137–127–7 | 51.9% |
| 2023 | 272 | 119–139–14 | 46.1% |
| 2024 | 272 | 114–149–9 | 43.3% |
| 2025 | 272 | 125–144–3 | 46.5% |
Exp pts pass def (allowed) in 2024 vs 2023
Broncos lead at 4.83 — they ranked #27 last year. Jaguars are last at -7.16 — #11 last year.
The league average is -0.85, down 1.72 from 0.87 last year.
Biggest riser: Broncos, #27 → #1. Biggest faller: Jaguars, #11 → #32.
Spread between first and last: 11.99; 21 teams are within 2.55 of the average.
Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023
Biggest movers from last season.
YoY by team — 2024 vs 2023
| Rank | Team | 2024 | 2023 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 4.83 | -1.83 | +6.66 |
| 2 | WAS | -0.76 | -6.03 | +5.27 |
| 3 | PHI | 3.15 | -2.00 | +5.16 |
| 4 | DET | 3.31 | -0.80 | +4.11 |
| 5 | LAC | 2.54 | -1.43 | +3.97 |
| 6 | GB | 2.18 | -0.91 | +3.09 |
| 7 | MIN | 2.15 | -0.76 | +2.90 |
| 8 | HOU | 2.20 | -0.69 | +2.88 |
| 9 | ARI | -2.16 | -4.78 | +2.62 |
| 10 | SEA | 0.18 | -1.96 | +2.14 |
| 11 | TEN | -1.22 | -3.18 | +1.97 |
| 12 | CIN | -1.51 | -1.54 | +0.04 |
| 13 | CHI | -0.13 | -0.06 | −0.07 |
| 14 | TB | -1.77 | -0.86 | −0.91 |
| 15 | MIA | -0.30 | 1.59 | −1.89 |
| 16 | IND | -2.59 | 0.13 | −2.72 |
| 17 | PIT | -0.56 | 2.28 | −2.83 |
| 18 | LAR | -2.60 | 0.35 | −2.94 |
| 19 | NE | -4.38 | -0.45 | −3.93 |
| 20 | ATL | -3.59 | 0.40 | −3.99 |
| 21 | NO | 0.17 | 4.36 | −4.19 |
| 22 | LV | -2.34 | 2.05 | −4.39 |
| 23 | CAR | -5.28 | 0.02 | −5.30 |
| 24 | NYG | -3.39 | 1.94 | −5.33 |
| 25 | SF | -0.75 | 4.59 | −5.33 |
| 26 | DAL | -0.99 | 4.47 | −5.46 |
| 27 | BUF | -1.82 | 3.99 | −5.82 |
| 28 | NYJ | -1.28 | 5.20 | −6.48 |
| 29 | KC | -1.59 | 5.21 | −6.80 |
| 30 | BAL | 0.18 | 8.37 | −8.19 |
| 31 | JAX | -7.16 | 2.01 | −9.17 |
| 32 | CLE | -1.82 | 8.23 | −10.05 |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 1.64 | +0.90 | -1.60 | 0.09 | 2.42 | -1.83 | 4.83 | 4.45 | 3.08 |
| 2 | CLE | 1.53 | +0.84 | -4.28 | 0.93 | 1.11 | 8.23 | -1.82 | 4.18 | 2.38 |
| 3 | NO | 1.52 | −1.02 | 2.71 | 3.57 | 2.88 | 4.36 | 0.17 | 1.44 | -4.46 |
| 4 | MIN | 1.45 | +1.70 | -4.94 | 2.20 | -1.21 | -0.76 | 2.15 | 4.32 | 8.41 |
| 5 | LAR | 1.25 | −0.32 | 7.41 | -0.25 | -1.66 | 0.35 | -2.60 | 2.79 | 2.72 |
| 6 | SF | 0.87 | −0.52 | 0.79 | 0.27 | 4.65 | 4.59 | -0.75 | -3.98 | 0.55 |
| 7 | BUF | 0.61 | −1.21 | -0.42 | 6.38 | 1.41 | 3.99 | -1.82 | 3.38 | -8.65 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.55 | −0.72 | 5.83 | 0.50 | -2.56 | 2.28 | -0.56 | -1.10 | -0.53 |
| 9 | NE | 0.42 | −0.15 | -2.16 | 3.62 | 4.06 | -0.45 | -4.38 | 1.89 | 0.40 |
| 10 | LAC | 0.37 | +0.65 | -2.95 | -0.65 | 1.73 | -1.43 | 2.54 | 2.96 | 0.42 |
| 11 | GB | 0.36 | +0.08 | -0.48 | 1.53 | 0.38 | -0.91 | 2.18 | -2.60 | 2.45 |
| 12 | PHI | 0.36 | +0.10 | -2.11 | -1.72 | 5.39 | -2.00 | 3.15 | 4.26 | -4.47 |
| 13 | KC | 0.30 | +0.28 | -1.68 | -1.40 | 0.77 | 5.21 | -1.59 | 0.08 | 0.69 |
| 14 | TB | 0.00 | −0.58 | 0.59 | 3.83 | 0.49 | -0.86 | -1.77 | -2.42 | 0.15 |
| 15 | BAL | -0.13 | −0.06 | 1.53 | -6.09 | -0.58 | 8.37 | 0.18 | -2.81 | -1.48 |
| 16 | SEA | -0.45 | +1.51 | -5.00 | -3.71 | -0.34 | -1.96 | 0.18 | 3.81 | 3.89 |
| 17 | HOU | -0.70 | +1.78 | -8.74 | -4.59 | 0.49 | -0.69 | 2.20 | 6.44 | 0.00 |
| 18 | NYG | -0.98 | +0.15 | -2.69 | -1.15 | -0.26 | 1.94 | -3.39 | -0.97 | -0.36 |
| 19 | IND | -1.18 | −0.45 | 0.35 | -1.50 | -0.11 | 0.13 | -2.59 | -1.56 | -2.98 |
| 20 | MIA | -1.18 | −1.65 | 2.95 | 1.66 | -1.16 | 1.59 | -0.30 | -4.10 | -8.93 |
| 21 | DAL | -1.19 | −2.05 | -2.67 | 5.86 | 3.84 | 4.47 | -0.99 | -7.69 | -11.17 |
| 22 | CIN | -1.26 | +0.18 | -4.48 | -0.09 | 2.26 | -1.54 | -1.51 | -5.53 | 2.06 |
| 23 | CHI | -1.47 | +0.40 | -2.70 | -1.00 | -4.87 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -1.05 | -0.49 |
| 24 | JAX | -1.71 | +1.60 | -7.73 | -6.31 | -0.03 | 2.01 | -7.16 | 5.54 | 1.71 |
| 25 | CAR | -2.00 | −0.12 | -3.58 | 0.60 | -1.60 | 0.02 | -5.28 | -3.33 | -0.84 |
| 26 | NYJ | -2.28 | +0.71 | -7.56 | -7.93 | 3.11 | 5.20 | -1.28 | -8.08 | 0.58 |
| 27 | WAS | -2.29 | −1.09 | 4.26 | -4.91 | 1.98 | -6.03 | -0.76 | -6.89 | -3.72 |
| 28 | ATL | -2.43 | +1.17 | -5.98 | -4.96 | -4.53 | 0.40 | -3.59 | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| 29 | LV | -3.11 | +0.69 | -7.01 | -5.19 | -3.88 | 2.05 | -2.34 | -2.54 | -2.86 |
| 30 | ARI | -3.41 | −1.55 | -0.81 | 1.04 | -1.17 | -4.78 | -2.16 | -5.26 | -10.73 |
| 31 | DET | -3.61 | +0.65 | -10.89 | -5.29 | -1.65 | -0.80 | 3.31 | 0.23 | -10.18 |
| 32 | TEN | -3.74 | −0.34 | -7.62 | 1.00 | -2.65 | -3.18 | -1.22 | -5.49 | -6.99 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | -1.60 | 0.09 | 2.42 | -1.83 | 4.83 | 4.45 | 3.08 |
| DET | -10.89 | -5.29 | -1.65 | -0.80 | 3.31 | 0.23 | -10.18 |
| PHI | -2.11 | -1.72 | 5.39 | -2.00 | 3.15 | 4.26 | -4.47 |
| LAC | -2.95 | -0.65 | 1.73 | -1.43 | 2.54 | 2.96 | 0.42 |
| HOU | -8.74 | -4.59 | 0.49 | -0.69 | 2.20 | 6.44 | 0.00 |
| GB | -0.48 | 1.53 | 0.38 | -0.91 | 2.18 | -2.60 | 2.45 |
| MIN | -4.94 | 2.20 | -1.21 | -0.76 | 2.15 | 4.32 | 8.41 |
| BAL | 1.53 | -6.09 | -0.58 | 8.37 | 0.18 | -2.81 | -1.48 |
| SEA | -5.00 | -3.71 | -0.34 | -1.96 | 0.18 | 3.81 | 3.89 |
| NO | 2.71 | 3.57 | 2.88 | 4.36 | 0.17 | 1.44 | -4.46 |
| CHI | -2.70 | -1.00 | -4.87 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -1.05 | -0.49 |
| MIA | 2.95 | 1.66 | -1.16 | 1.59 | -0.30 | -4.10 | -8.93 |
| PIT | 5.83 | 0.50 | -2.56 | 2.28 | -0.56 | -1.10 | -0.53 |
| SF | 0.79 | 0.27 | 4.65 | 4.59 | -0.75 | -3.98 | 0.55 |
| WAS | 4.26 | -4.91 | 1.98 | -6.03 | -0.76 | -6.89 | -3.72 |
| DAL | -2.67 | 5.86 | 3.84 | 4.47 | -0.99 | -7.69 | -11.17 |
| TEN | -7.62 | 1.00 | -2.65 | -3.18 | -1.22 | -5.49 | -6.99 |
| NYJ | -7.56 | -7.93 | 3.11 | 5.20 | -1.28 | -8.08 | 0.58 |
| CIN | -4.48 | -0.09 | 2.26 | -1.54 | -1.51 | -5.53 | 2.06 |
| KC | -1.68 | -1.40 | 0.77 | 5.21 | -1.59 | 0.08 | 0.69 |
| TB | 0.59 | 3.83 | 0.49 | -0.86 | -1.77 | -2.42 | 0.15 |
| CLE | -4.28 | 0.93 | 1.11 | 8.23 | -1.82 | 4.18 | 2.38 |
| BUF | -0.42 | 6.38 | 1.41 | 3.99 | -1.82 | 3.38 | -8.65 |
| ARI | -0.81 | 1.04 | -1.17 | -4.78 | -2.16 | -5.26 | -10.73 |
| LV | -7.01 | -5.19 | -3.88 | 2.05 | -2.34 | -2.54 | -2.86 |
| IND | 0.35 | -1.50 | -0.11 | 0.13 | -2.59 | -1.56 | -2.98 |
| LAR | 7.41 | -0.25 | -1.66 | 0.35 | -2.60 | 2.79 | 2.72 |
| NYG | -2.69 | -1.15 | -0.26 | 1.94 | -3.39 | -0.97 | -0.36 |
| ATL | -5.98 | -4.96 | -4.53 | 0.40 | -3.59 | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| NE | -2.16 | 3.62 | 4.06 | -0.45 | -4.38 | 1.89 | 0.40 |
| CAR | -3.58 | 0.60 | -1.60 | 0.02 | -5.28 | -3.33 | -0.84 |
| JAX | -7.73 | -6.31 | -0.03 | 2.01 | -7.16 | 5.54 | 1.71 |
Exp pts pass def (allowed) since 2018
Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (5.14), 2019 Patriots (10.68), 2020 Rams (7.41), 2021 Bills (6.38), 2022 Eagles (5.39), 2023 Ravens (8.37), 2024 Broncos (4.83).
The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 10.68; the worst Lions 2020 at -10.89.
The league average has risen from -1.35 in 2018 to -0.85 in 2024.
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- def_passing_exp_pts_pass_def
- Side
- defensive
- Family
- Passing
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.