What Exp pts pass def (allowed) is

Expected points allowed through the air: for every opponent pass play, the change in expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. It values each play by the situation it created, not just the yards — a defense that gives up yards between the twenties but holds on third down scores well here.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2019 the Patriots led at 10.68; the league average was -0.95.

League snapshot — 2019

League leader

NE · 10.68

League average

-0.95

Best to worst

19.15

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	NE	10.68	16
2	SF	6.50	16
3	BAL	5.64	16
4	BUF	4.57	16
5	PIT	4.17	16
6	MIN	2.51	16
7	KC	1.92	16
8	GB	1.83	16
9	TB	1.68	16
10	NO	0.79	16
11	DAL	0.66	16
12	CHI	0.61	16
13	LAR	0.60	16
14	DEN	-0.46	16
15	CLE	-0.53	16
16	CAR	-0.62	16
17	TEN	-0.82	16
18	SEA	-1.10	16
19	PHI	-1.11	16
20	NYJ	-1.21	16
21	IND	-2.47	16
22	LAC	-2.52	16
23	JAX	-3.43	16
24	ATL	-4.62	16
25	HOU	-4.82	16
26	DET	-5.78	16
27	WAS	-6.02	16
28	CIN	-6.09	16
29	NYG	-6.68	16
30	LV	-7.55	16
31	ARI	-8.14	16
32	MIA	-8.47	16

At a glance — 2019

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

NE · 10.68

League laggard

MIA · -8.47

League average

-0.95

Spread (max − min)

19.15

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	NE	10.68	11.63	100%
2	SF	6.50	7.44	96.8%
3	BAL	5.64	6.59	93.5%
4	BUF	4.57	5.52	90.3%
5	PIT	4.17	5.11	87.1%
6	MIN	2.51	3.46	83.9%
7	KC	1.92	2.87	80.6%
8	GB	1.83	2.77	77.4%
9	TB	1.68	2.62	74.2%
10	NO	0.79	1.73	71%
11	DAL	0.66	1.61	67.7%
12	CHI	0.61	1.56	64.5%
13	LAR	0.60	1.54	61.3%
14	DEN	-0.46	0.49	58.1%
15	CLE	-0.53	0.42	54.8%
16	CAR	-0.62	0.32	51.6%
17	TEN	-0.82	0.13	48.4%
18	SEA	-1.10	-0.16	45.2%
19	PHI	-1.11	-0.16	41.9%
20	NYJ	-1.21	-0.26	38.7%
21	IND	-2.47	-1.52	35.5%
22	LAC	-2.52	-1.58	32.3%
23	JAX	-3.43	-2.48	29%
24	ATL	-4.62	-3.67	25.8%
25	HOU	-4.82	-3.88	22.6%
26	DET	-5.78	-4.84	19.4%
27	WAS	-6.02	-5.07	16.1%
28	CIN	-6.09	-5.14	12.9%
29	NYG	-6.68	-5.74	9.7%
30	LV	-7.55	-6.61	6.5%
31	ARI	-8.14	-7.19	3.2%
32	MIA	-8.47	-7.52	0%

Does Exp pts pass def (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 747–831–37 ATS (47.3%) across 2020–2025, #293 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (114–149, 43.3%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	124–130–2	48.8%
2021	272	128–142–2	47.4%
2022	271	137–127–7	51.9%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	114–149–9	43.3%
2025	272	125–144–3	46.5%

Exp pts pass def (allowed) in 2019 vs 2018

Patriots lead at 10.68 — they ranked #5 last year. Dolphins are last at -8.47 — #24 last year.

The league average is -0.95, up 0.41 from -1.35 last year.

Biggest riser: 49ers, #28 → #2. Biggest faller: Cardinals, #10 → #31.

Spread between first and last: 19.15; 20 teams are within 4.46 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2019 vs 2018

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

SF · +11.74

Biggest faller

ARI · −7.78

Most consistent

TEN · −0.03

League trend 2019 vs 2018

▲ 0.41

Rank	Team	2019	2018	Δ
1	SF	6.50	-5.24	+11.74
2	NE	10.68	1.44	+9.25
3	TB	1.68	-5.98	+7.66
4	GB	1.83	-5.48	+7.31
5	PIT	4.17	-1.63	+5.80
6	KC	1.92	-1.89	+3.82
7	CAR	-0.62	-3.99	+3.37
8	BAL	5.64	2.34	+3.30
9	NO	0.79	-2.16	+2.95
10	DAL	0.66	-1.46	+2.12
11	DEN	-0.46	-1.30	+0.84
12	PHI	-1.11	-1.89	+0.79
13	NYJ	-1.21	-1.90	+0.69
14	LAR	0.60	0.03	+0.56
15	BUF	4.57	4.27	+0.31
16	TEN	-0.82	-0.79	−0.03
17	CIN	-6.09	-5.95	−0.13
18	CLE	-0.53	-0.26	−0.27
19	LV	-7.55	-6.97	−0.58
20	SEA	-1.10	-0.51	−0.59
21	ATL	-4.62	-2.95	−1.67
22	IND	-2.47	-0.41	−2.05
23	MIN	2.51	4.90	−2.39
24	NYG	-6.68	-4.22	−2.46
25	LAC	-2.52	0.52	−3.04
26	DET	-5.78	-2.58	−3.20
27	JAX	-3.43	0.15	−3.58
28	HOU	-4.82	-0.50	−4.32
29	CHI	0.61	5.14	−4.53
30	WAS	-6.02	-0.88	−5.14
31	MIA	-8.47	-2.75	−5.72
32	ARI	-8.14	-0.36	−7.78

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DEN · 1.64

Multi-year laggard

TEN · -3.74

Biggest improver

HOU · +1.78/yr

Biggest decliner

DAL · −2.05/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DEN	1.64	+0.90	-1.60	0.09	2.42	-1.83	4.83	4.45	3.08
2	CLE	1.53	+0.84	-4.28	0.93	1.11	8.23	-1.82	4.18	2.38
3	NO	1.52	−1.02	2.71	3.57	2.88	4.36	0.17	1.44	-4.46
4	MIN	1.45	+1.70	-4.94	2.20	-1.21	-0.76	2.15	4.32	8.41
5	LAR	1.25	−0.32	7.41	-0.25	-1.66	0.35	-2.60	2.79	2.72
6	SF	0.87	−0.52	0.79	0.27	4.65	4.59	-0.75	-3.98	0.55
7	BUF	0.61	−1.21	-0.42	6.38	1.41	3.99	-1.82	3.38	-8.65
8	PIT	0.55	−0.72	5.83	0.50	-2.56	2.28	-0.56	-1.10	-0.53
9	NE	0.42	−0.15	-2.16	3.62	4.06	-0.45	-4.38	1.89	0.40
10	LAC	0.37	+0.65	-2.95	-0.65	1.73	-1.43	2.54	2.96	0.42
11	GB	0.36	+0.08	-0.48	1.53	0.38	-0.91	2.18	-2.60	2.45
12	PHI	0.36	+0.10	-2.11	-1.72	5.39	-2.00	3.15	4.26	-4.47
13	KC	0.30	+0.28	-1.68	-1.40	0.77	5.21	-1.59	0.08	0.69
14	TB	0.00	−0.58	0.59	3.83	0.49	-0.86	-1.77	-2.42	0.15
15	BAL	-0.13	−0.06	1.53	-6.09	-0.58	8.37	0.18	-2.81	-1.48
16	SEA	-0.45	+1.51	-5.00	-3.71	-0.34	-1.96	0.18	3.81	3.89
17	HOU	-0.70	+1.78	-8.74	-4.59	0.49	-0.69	2.20	6.44	0.00
18	NYG	-0.98	+0.15	-2.69	-1.15	-0.26	1.94	-3.39	-0.97	-0.36
19	IND	-1.18	−0.45	0.35	-1.50	-0.11	0.13	-2.59	-1.56	-2.98
20	MIA	-1.18	−1.65	2.95	1.66	-1.16	1.59	-0.30	-4.10	-8.93
21	DAL	-1.19	−2.05	-2.67	5.86	3.84	4.47	-0.99	-7.69	-11.17
22	CIN	-1.26	+0.18	-4.48	-0.09	2.26	-1.54	-1.51	-5.53	2.06
23	CHI	-1.47	+0.40	-2.70	-1.00	-4.87	-0.06	-0.13	-1.05	-0.49
24	JAX	-1.71	+1.60	-7.73	-6.31	-0.03	2.01	-7.16	5.54	1.71
25	CAR	-2.00	−0.12	-3.58	0.60	-1.60	0.02	-5.28	-3.33	-0.84
26	NYJ	-2.28	+0.71	-7.56	-7.93	3.11	5.20	-1.28	-8.08	0.58
27	WAS	-2.29	−1.09	4.26	-4.91	1.98	-6.03	-0.76	-6.89	-3.72
28	ATL	-2.43	+1.17	-5.98	-4.96	-4.53	0.40	-3.59	0.99	0.63
29	LV	-3.11	+0.69	-7.01	-5.19	-3.88	2.05	-2.34	-2.54	-2.86
30	ARI	-3.41	−1.55	-0.81	1.04	-1.17	-4.78	-2.16	-5.26	-10.73
31	DET	-3.61	+0.65	-10.89	-5.29	-1.65	-0.80	3.31	0.23	-10.18
32	TEN	-3.74	−0.34	-7.62	1.00	-2.65	-3.18	-1.22	-5.49	-6.99

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
MIN	-4.94	2.20	-1.21	-0.76	2.15	4.32	8.41
SEA	-5.00	-3.71	-0.34	-1.96	0.18	3.81	3.89
DEN	-1.60	0.09	2.42	-1.83	4.83	4.45	3.08
LAR	7.41	-0.25	-1.66	0.35	-2.60	2.79	2.72
GB	-0.48	1.53	0.38	-0.91	2.18	-2.60	2.45
CLE	-4.28	0.93	1.11	8.23	-1.82	4.18	2.38
CIN	-4.48	-0.09	2.26	-1.54	-1.51	-5.53	2.06
JAX	-7.73	-6.31	-0.03	2.01	-7.16	5.54	1.71
KC	-1.68	-1.40	0.77	5.21	-1.59	0.08	0.69
ATL	-5.98	-4.96	-4.53	0.40	-3.59	0.99	0.63
NYJ	-7.56	-7.93	3.11	5.20	-1.28	-8.08	0.58
SF	0.79	0.27	4.65	4.59	-0.75	-3.98	0.55
LAC	-2.95	-0.65	1.73	-1.43	2.54	2.96	0.42
NE	-2.16	3.62	4.06	-0.45	-4.38	1.89	0.40
TB	0.59	3.83	0.49	-0.86	-1.77	-2.42	0.15
HOU	-8.74	-4.59	0.49	-0.69	2.20	6.44	0.00
NYG	-2.69	-1.15	-0.26	1.94	-3.39	-0.97	-0.36
CHI	-2.70	-1.00	-4.87	-0.06	-0.13	-1.05	-0.49
PIT	5.83	0.50	-2.56	2.28	-0.56	-1.10	-0.53
CAR	-3.58	0.60	-1.60	0.02	-5.28	-3.33	-0.84
BAL	1.53	-6.09	-0.58	8.37	0.18	-2.81	-1.48
LV	-7.01	-5.19	-3.88	2.05	-2.34	-2.54	-2.86
IND	0.35	-1.50	-0.11	0.13	-2.59	-1.56	-2.98
WAS	4.26	-4.91	1.98	-6.03	-0.76	-6.89	-3.72
NO	2.71	3.57	2.88	4.36	0.17	1.44	-4.46
PHI	-2.11	-1.72	5.39	-2.00	3.15	4.26	-4.47
TEN	-7.62	1.00	-2.65	-3.18	-1.22	-5.49	-6.99
BUF	-0.42	6.38	1.41	3.99	-1.82	3.38	-8.65
MIA	2.95	1.66	-1.16	1.59	-0.30	-4.10	-8.93
DET	-10.89	-5.29	-1.65	-0.80	3.31	0.23	-10.18
ARI	-0.81	1.04	-1.17	-4.78	-2.16	-5.26	-10.73
DAL	-2.67	5.86	3.84	4.47	-0.99	-7.69	-11.17

Exp pts pass def (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (5.14), 2019 Patriots (10.68).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 10.68; the worst Dolphins 2019 at -8.47.

The league average has risen from -1.35 in 2018 to -0.95 in 2019.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2019.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_passing_exp_pts_pass_def
Side: defensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.