Defensive: Passing · Exp pts pass def (allowed)
P + N
About this stat ↓What Exp pts pass def (allowed) is
Expected points allowed through the air: for every opponent pass play, the change in expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. It values each play by the situation it created, not just the yards — a defense that gives up yards between the twenties but holds on third down scores well here.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2018 the Bears led at 5.14; the league average was -1.35.
League snapshot — 2018
League leader
CHI · 5.14
League average
-1.35
Best to worst
12.11
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 5.14 | 16 |
| 2 | MIN | 4.90 | 16 |
| 3 | BUF | 4.27 | 16 |
| 4 | BAL | 2.34 | 16 |
| 5 | NE | 1.44 | 16 |
| 6 | LAC | 0.52 | 16 |
| 7 | JAX | 0.15 | 16 |
| 8 | LAR | 0.03 | 16 |
| 9 | CLE | -0.26 | 16 |
| 10 | ARI | -0.36 | 16 |
| 11 | IND | -0.41 | 16 |
| 12 | HOU | -0.50 | 16 |
| 13 | SEA | -0.51 | 16 |
| 14 | TEN | -0.79 | 16 |
| 15 | WAS | -0.88 | 16 |
| 16 | DEN | -1.30 | 16 |
| 17 | DAL | -1.46 | 16 |
| 18 | PIT | -1.63 | 16 |
| 19 | PHI | -1.89 | 16 |
| 20 | KC | -1.89 | 16 |
| 21 | NYJ | -1.90 | 16 |
| 22 | NO | -2.16 | 16 |
| 23 | DET | -2.58 | 16 |
| 24 | MIA | -2.75 | 16 |
| 25 | ATL | -2.95 | 16 |
| 26 | CAR | -3.99 | 16 |
| 27 | NYG | -4.22 | 16 |
| 28 | SF | -5.24 | 16 |
| 29 | GB | -5.48 | 16 |
| 30 | CIN | -5.95 | 16 |
| 31 | TB | -5.98 | 16 |
| 32 | LV | -6.97 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
League leader
CHI · 5.14
League laggard
LV · -6.97
League average
-1.35
Spread (max − min)
12.11
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 5.14 | 6.49 | 100% |
| 2 | MIN | 4.90 | 6.25 | 96.8% |
| 3 | BUF | 4.27 | 5.62 | 93.5% |
| 4 | BAL | 2.34 | 3.69 | 90.3% |
| 5 | NE | 1.44 | 2.79 | 87.1% |
| 6 | LAC | 0.52 | 1.87 | 83.9% |
| 7 | JAX | 0.15 | 1.50 | 80.6% |
| 8 | LAR | 0.03 | 1.39 | 77.4% |
| 9 | CLE | -0.26 | 1.09 | 74.2% |
| 10 | ARI | -0.36 | 0.99 | 71% |
| 11 | IND | -0.41 | 0.94 | 67.7% |
| 12 | HOU | -0.50 | 0.85 | 64.5% |
| 13 | SEA | -0.51 | 0.84 | 61.3% |
| 14 | TEN | -0.79 | 0.57 | 58.1% |
| 15 | WAS | -0.88 | 0.47 | 54.8% |
| 16 | DEN | -1.30 | 0.05 | 51.6% |
| 17 | DAL | -1.46 | -0.11 | 48.4% |
| 18 | PIT | -1.63 | -0.28 | 45.2% |
| 19 | PHI | -1.89 | -0.54 | 41.9% |
| 20 | KC | -1.89 | -0.54 | 38.7% |
| 21 | NYJ | -1.90 | -0.54 | 35.5% |
| 22 | NO | -2.16 | -0.81 | 32.3% |
| 23 | DET | -2.58 | -1.23 | 29% |
| 24 | MIA | -2.75 | -1.40 | 25.8% |
| 25 | ATL | -2.95 | -1.59 | 22.6% |
| 26 | CAR | -3.99 | -2.64 | 19.4% |
| 27 | NYG | -4.22 | -2.87 | 16.1% |
| 28 | SF | -5.24 | -3.89 | 12.9% |
| 29 | GB | -5.48 | -4.13 | 9.7% |
| 30 | CIN | -5.95 | -4.60 | 6.5% |
| 31 | TB | -5.98 | -4.63 | 3.2% |
| 32 | LV | -6.97 | -5.62 | 0% |
Does Exp pts pass def (allowed) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 747–831–37 ATS (47.3%) across 2020–2025, #293 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (114–149, 43.3%).
For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 124–130–2 | 48.8% |
| 2021 | 272 | 128–142–2 | 47.4% |
| 2022 | 271 | 137–127–7 | 51.9% |
| 2023 | 272 | 119–139–14 | 46.1% |
| 2024 | 272 | 114–149–9 | 43.3% |
| 2025 | 272 | 125–144–3 | 46.5% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year leader
DEN · 1.64
Multi-year laggard
TEN · -3.74
Biggest improver
HOU · +1.78/yr
Biggest decliner
DAL · −2.05/yr
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 1.64 | +0.90 | -1.60 | 0.09 | 2.42 | -1.83 | 4.83 | 4.45 | 3.08 |
| 2 | CLE | 1.53 | +0.84 | -4.28 | 0.93 | 1.11 | 8.23 | -1.82 | 4.18 | 2.38 |
| 3 | NO | 1.52 | −1.02 | 2.71 | 3.57 | 2.88 | 4.36 | 0.17 | 1.44 | -4.46 |
| 4 | MIN | 1.45 | +1.70 | -4.94 | 2.20 | -1.21 | -0.76 | 2.15 | 4.32 | 8.41 |
| 5 | LAR | 1.25 | −0.32 | 7.41 | -0.25 | -1.66 | 0.35 | -2.60 | 2.79 | 2.72 |
| 6 | SF | 0.87 | −0.52 | 0.79 | 0.27 | 4.65 | 4.59 | -0.75 | -3.98 | 0.55 |
| 7 | BUF | 0.61 | −1.21 | -0.42 | 6.38 | 1.41 | 3.99 | -1.82 | 3.38 | -8.65 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.55 | −0.72 | 5.83 | 0.50 | -2.56 | 2.28 | -0.56 | -1.10 | -0.53 |
| 9 | NE | 0.42 | −0.15 | -2.16 | 3.62 | 4.06 | -0.45 | -4.38 | 1.89 | 0.40 |
| 10 | LAC | 0.37 | +0.65 | -2.95 | -0.65 | 1.73 | -1.43 | 2.54 | 2.96 | 0.42 |
| 11 | GB | 0.36 | +0.08 | -0.48 | 1.53 | 0.38 | -0.91 | 2.18 | -2.60 | 2.45 |
| 12 | PHI | 0.36 | +0.10 | -2.11 | -1.72 | 5.39 | -2.00 | 3.15 | 4.26 | -4.47 |
| 13 | KC | 0.30 | +0.28 | -1.68 | -1.40 | 0.77 | 5.21 | -1.59 | 0.08 | 0.69 |
| 14 | TB | 0.00 | −0.58 | 0.59 | 3.83 | 0.49 | -0.86 | -1.77 | -2.42 | 0.15 |
| 15 | BAL | -0.13 | −0.06 | 1.53 | -6.09 | -0.58 | 8.37 | 0.18 | -2.81 | -1.48 |
| 16 | SEA | -0.45 | +1.51 | -5.00 | -3.71 | -0.34 | -1.96 | 0.18 | 3.81 | 3.89 |
| 17 | HOU | -0.70 | +1.78 | -8.74 | -4.59 | 0.49 | -0.69 | 2.20 | 6.44 | 0.00 |
| 18 | NYG | -0.98 | +0.15 | -2.69 | -1.15 | -0.26 | 1.94 | -3.39 | -0.97 | -0.36 |
| 19 | IND | -1.18 | −0.45 | 0.35 | -1.50 | -0.11 | 0.13 | -2.59 | -1.56 | -2.98 |
| 20 | MIA | -1.18 | −1.65 | 2.95 | 1.66 | -1.16 | 1.59 | -0.30 | -4.10 | -8.93 |
| 21 | DAL | -1.19 | −2.05 | -2.67 | 5.86 | 3.84 | 4.47 | -0.99 | -7.69 | -11.17 |
| 22 | CIN | -1.26 | +0.18 | -4.48 | -0.09 | 2.26 | -1.54 | -1.51 | -5.53 | 2.06 |
| 23 | CHI | -1.47 | +0.40 | -2.70 | -1.00 | -4.87 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -1.05 | -0.49 |
| 24 | JAX | -1.71 | +1.60 | -7.73 | -6.31 | -0.03 | 2.01 | -7.16 | 5.54 | 1.71 |
| 25 | CAR | -2.00 | −0.12 | -3.58 | 0.60 | -1.60 | 0.02 | -5.28 | -3.33 | -0.84 |
| 26 | NYJ | -2.28 | +0.71 | -7.56 | -7.93 | 3.11 | 5.20 | -1.28 | -8.08 | 0.58 |
| 27 | WAS | -2.29 | −1.09 | 4.26 | -4.91 | 1.98 | -6.03 | -0.76 | -6.89 | -3.72 |
| 28 | ATL | -2.43 | +1.17 | -5.98 | -4.96 | -4.53 | 0.40 | -3.59 | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| 29 | LV | -3.11 | +0.69 | -7.01 | -5.19 | -3.88 | 2.05 | -2.34 | -2.54 | -2.86 |
| 30 | ARI | -3.41 | −1.55 | -0.81 | 1.04 | -1.17 | -4.78 | -2.16 | -5.26 | -10.73 |
| 31 | DET | -3.61 | +0.65 | -10.89 | -5.29 | -1.65 | -0.80 | 3.31 | 0.23 | -10.18 |
| 32 | TEN | -3.74 | −0.34 | -7.62 | 1.00 | -2.65 | -3.18 | -1.22 | -5.49 | -6.99 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | -4.94 | 2.20 | -1.21 | -0.76 | 2.15 | 4.32 | 8.41 |
| SEA | -5.00 | -3.71 | -0.34 | -1.96 | 0.18 | 3.81 | 3.89 |
| DEN | -1.60 | 0.09 | 2.42 | -1.83 | 4.83 | 4.45 | 3.08 |
| LAR | 7.41 | -0.25 | -1.66 | 0.35 | -2.60 | 2.79 | 2.72 |
| GB | -0.48 | 1.53 | 0.38 | -0.91 | 2.18 | -2.60 | 2.45 |
| CLE | -4.28 | 0.93 | 1.11 | 8.23 | -1.82 | 4.18 | 2.38 |
| CIN | -4.48 | -0.09 | 2.26 | -1.54 | -1.51 | -5.53 | 2.06 |
| JAX | -7.73 | -6.31 | -0.03 | 2.01 | -7.16 | 5.54 | 1.71 |
| KC | -1.68 | -1.40 | 0.77 | 5.21 | -1.59 | 0.08 | 0.69 |
| ATL | -5.98 | -4.96 | -4.53 | 0.40 | -3.59 | 0.99 | 0.63 |
| NYJ | -7.56 | -7.93 | 3.11 | 5.20 | -1.28 | -8.08 | 0.58 |
| SF | 0.79 | 0.27 | 4.65 | 4.59 | -0.75 | -3.98 | 0.55 |
| LAC | -2.95 | -0.65 | 1.73 | -1.43 | 2.54 | 2.96 | 0.42 |
| NE | -2.16 | 3.62 | 4.06 | -0.45 | -4.38 | 1.89 | 0.40 |
| TB | 0.59 | 3.83 | 0.49 | -0.86 | -1.77 | -2.42 | 0.15 |
| HOU | -8.74 | -4.59 | 0.49 | -0.69 | 2.20 | 6.44 | 0.00 |
| NYG | -2.69 | -1.15 | -0.26 | 1.94 | -3.39 | -0.97 | -0.36 |
| CHI | -2.70 | -1.00 | -4.87 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -1.05 | -0.49 |
| PIT | 5.83 | 0.50 | -2.56 | 2.28 | -0.56 | -1.10 | -0.53 |
| CAR | -3.58 | 0.60 | -1.60 | 0.02 | -5.28 | -3.33 | -0.84 |
| BAL | 1.53 | -6.09 | -0.58 | 8.37 | 0.18 | -2.81 | -1.48 |
| LV | -7.01 | -5.19 | -3.88 | 2.05 | -2.34 | -2.54 | -2.86 |
| IND | 0.35 | -1.50 | -0.11 | 0.13 | -2.59 | -1.56 | -2.98 |
| WAS | 4.26 | -4.91 | 1.98 | -6.03 | -0.76 | -6.89 | -3.72 |
| NO | 2.71 | 3.57 | 2.88 | 4.36 | 0.17 | 1.44 | -4.46 |
| PHI | -2.11 | -1.72 | 5.39 | -2.00 | 3.15 | 4.26 | -4.47 |
| TEN | -7.62 | 1.00 | -2.65 | -3.18 | -1.22 | -5.49 | -6.99 |
| BUF | -0.42 | 6.38 | 1.41 | 3.99 | -1.82 | 3.38 | -8.65 |
| MIA | 2.95 | 1.66 | -1.16 | 1.59 | -0.30 | -4.10 | -8.93 |
| DET | -10.89 | -5.29 | -1.65 | -0.80 | 3.31 | 0.23 | -10.18 |
| ARI | -0.81 | 1.04 | -1.17 | -4.78 | -2.16 | -5.26 | -10.73 |
| DAL | -2.67 | 5.86 | 3.84 | 4.47 | -0.99 | -7.69 | -11.17 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- def_passing_exp_pts_pass_def
- Side
- defensive
- Family
- Passing
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.