What Exp pts pass def (allowed) is

Expected points allowed through the air: for every opponent pass play, the change in expected points before and after the snap, summed over the season. It values each play by the situation it created, not just the yards — a defense that gives up yards between the twenties but holds on third down scores well here.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2020 the Rams led at 7.41; the league average was -2.24.

League snapshot — 2020

League leader

LAR · 7.41

League average

-2.24

Best to worst

18.30

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	LAR	7.41	16
2	PIT	5.83	16
3	WAS	4.26	16
4	MIA	2.95	16
5	NO	2.71	16
6	BAL	1.53	16
7	SF	0.79	16
8	TB	0.59	16
9	IND	0.35	16
10	BUF	-0.42	16
11	GB	-0.48	16
12	ARI	-0.81	16
13	DEN	-1.60	16
14	KC	-1.68	16
15	PHI	-2.11	16
16	NE	-2.16	16
17	DAL	-2.67	16
18	NYG	-2.69	16
19	CHI	-2.70	16
20	LAC	-2.95	16
21	CAR	-3.58	16
22	CLE	-4.28	16
23	CIN	-4.48	16
24	MIN	-4.94	16
25	SEA	-5.00	16
26	ATL	-5.98	16
27	LV	-7.01	16
28	NYJ	-7.56	16
29	TEN	-7.62	16
30	JAX	-7.73	16
31	HOU	-8.74	16
32	DET	-10.89	16

At a glance — 2020

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAR · 7.41

League laggard

DET · -10.89

League average

-2.24

Spread (max − min)

18.30

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	LAR	7.41	9.65	100%
2	PIT	5.83	8.06	96.8%
3	WAS	4.26	6.49	93.5%
4	MIA	2.95	5.19	90.3%
5	NO	2.71	4.95	87.1%
6	BAL	1.53	3.77	83.9%
7	SF	0.79	3.03	80.6%
8	TB	0.59	2.83	77.4%
9	IND	0.35	2.59	74.2%
10	BUF	-0.42	1.82	71%
11	GB	-0.48	1.76	67.7%
12	ARI	-0.81	1.43	64.5%
13	DEN	-1.60	0.64	61.3%
14	KC	-1.68	0.56	58.1%
15	PHI	-2.11	0.13	54.8%
16	NE	-2.16	0.08	51.6%
17	DAL	-2.67	-0.43	48.4%
18	NYG	-2.69	-0.45	45.2%
19	CHI	-2.70	-0.46	41.9%
20	LAC	-2.95	-0.71	38.7%
21	CAR	-3.58	-1.34	35.5%
22	CLE	-4.28	-2.04	32.3%
23	CIN	-4.48	-2.24	29%
24	MIN	-4.94	-2.70	25.8%
25	SEA	-5.00	-2.76	22.6%
26	ATL	-5.98	-3.74	19.4%
27	LV	-7.01	-4.77	16.1%
28	NYJ	-7.56	-5.32	12.9%
29	TEN	-7.62	-5.38	9.7%
30	JAX	-7.73	-5.49	6.5%
31	HOU	-8.74	-6.50	3.2%
32	DET	-10.89	-8.65	0%

Does Exp pts pass def (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 747–831–37 ATS (47.3%) across 2020–2025, #293 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (114–149, 43.3%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	124–130–2	48.8%
2021	272	128–142–2	47.4%
2022	271	137–127–7	51.9%
2023	272	119–139–14	46.1%
2024	272	114–149–9	43.3%
2025	272	125–144–3	46.5%

Exp pts pass def (allowed) in 2020 vs 2019

Rams lead at 7.41 — they ranked #13 last year. Lions are last at -10.89 — #26 last year.

The league average is -2.24, down 1.29 from -0.95 last year.

Biggest riser: Dolphins, #32 → #4. Biggest faller: Vikings, #6 → #24.

Spread between first and last: 18.30; 21 teams are within 4.21 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2020 vs 2019

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIA · +11.41

Biggest faller

NE · −12.84

Most consistent

LAC · −0.43

League trend 2020 vs 2019

▼ -1.29

Rank	Team	2020	2019	Δ
1	MIA	2.95	-8.47	+11.41
2	WAS	4.26	-6.02	+10.27
3	ARI	-0.81	-8.14	+7.33
4	LAR	7.41	0.60	+6.81
5	NYG	-2.69	-6.68	+4.00
6	IND	0.35	-2.47	+2.82
7	NO	2.71	0.79	+1.93
8	PIT	5.83	4.17	+1.66
9	CIN	-4.48	-6.09	+1.61
10	LV	-7.01	-7.55	+0.54
11	LAC	-2.95	-2.52	−0.43
12	PHI	-2.11	-1.11	−1.01
13	TB	0.59	1.68	−1.08
14	DEN	-1.60	-0.46	−1.14
15	ATL	-5.98	-4.62	−1.36
16	GB	-0.48	1.83	−2.31
17	CAR	-3.58	-0.62	−2.95
18	CHI	-2.70	0.61	−3.31
19	DAL	-2.67	0.66	−3.33
20	KC	-1.68	1.92	−3.61
21	CLE	-4.28	-0.53	−3.75
22	SEA	-5.00	-1.10	−3.90
23	HOU	-8.74	-4.82	−3.92
24	BAL	1.53	5.64	−4.11
25	JAX	-7.73	-3.43	−4.30
26	BUF	-0.42	4.57	−4.99
27	DET	-10.89	-5.78	−5.11
28	SF	0.79	6.50	−5.70
29	NYJ	-7.56	-1.21	−6.35
30	TEN	-7.62	-0.82	−6.80
31	MIN	-4.94	2.51	−7.46
32	NE	-2.16	10.68	−12.84

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DEN · 1.64

Multi-year laggard

TEN · -3.74

Biggest improver

HOU · +1.78/yr

Biggest decliner

DAL · −2.05/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DEN	1.64	+0.90	-1.60	0.09	2.42	-1.83	4.83	4.45	3.08
2	CLE	1.53	+0.84	-4.28	0.93	1.11	8.23	-1.82	4.18	2.38
3	NO	1.52	−1.02	2.71	3.57	2.88	4.36	0.17	1.44	-4.46
4	MIN	1.45	+1.70	-4.94	2.20	-1.21	-0.76	2.15	4.32	8.41
5	LAR	1.25	−0.32	7.41	-0.25	-1.66	0.35	-2.60	2.79	2.72
6	SF	0.87	−0.52	0.79	0.27	4.65	4.59	-0.75	-3.98	0.55
7	BUF	0.61	−1.21	-0.42	6.38	1.41	3.99	-1.82	3.38	-8.65
8	PIT	0.55	−0.72	5.83	0.50	-2.56	2.28	-0.56	-1.10	-0.53
9	NE	0.42	−0.15	-2.16	3.62	4.06	-0.45	-4.38	1.89	0.40
10	LAC	0.37	+0.65	-2.95	-0.65	1.73	-1.43	2.54	2.96	0.42
11	GB	0.36	+0.08	-0.48	1.53	0.38	-0.91	2.18	-2.60	2.45
12	PHI	0.36	+0.10	-2.11	-1.72	5.39	-2.00	3.15	4.26	-4.47
13	KC	0.30	+0.28	-1.68	-1.40	0.77	5.21	-1.59	0.08	0.69
14	TB	0.00	−0.58	0.59	3.83	0.49	-0.86	-1.77	-2.42	0.15
15	BAL	-0.13	−0.06	1.53	-6.09	-0.58	8.37	0.18	-2.81	-1.48
16	SEA	-0.45	+1.51	-5.00	-3.71	-0.34	-1.96	0.18	3.81	3.89
17	HOU	-0.70	+1.78	-8.74	-4.59	0.49	-0.69	2.20	6.44	0.00
18	NYG	-0.98	+0.15	-2.69	-1.15	-0.26	1.94	-3.39	-0.97	-0.36
19	IND	-1.18	−0.45	0.35	-1.50	-0.11	0.13	-2.59	-1.56	-2.98
20	MIA	-1.18	−1.65	2.95	1.66	-1.16	1.59	-0.30	-4.10	-8.93
21	DAL	-1.19	−2.05	-2.67	5.86	3.84	4.47	-0.99	-7.69	-11.17
22	CIN	-1.26	+0.18	-4.48	-0.09	2.26	-1.54	-1.51	-5.53	2.06
23	CHI	-1.47	+0.40	-2.70	-1.00	-4.87	-0.06	-0.13	-1.05	-0.49
24	JAX	-1.71	+1.60	-7.73	-6.31	-0.03	2.01	-7.16	5.54	1.71
25	CAR	-2.00	−0.12	-3.58	0.60	-1.60	0.02	-5.28	-3.33	-0.84
26	NYJ	-2.28	+0.71	-7.56	-7.93	3.11	5.20	-1.28	-8.08	0.58
27	WAS	-2.29	−1.09	4.26	-4.91	1.98	-6.03	-0.76	-6.89	-3.72
28	ATL	-2.43	+1.17	-5.98	-4.96	-4.53	0.40	-3.59	0.99	0.63
29	LV	-3.11	+0.69	-7.01	-5.19	-3.88	2.05	-2.34	-2.54	-2.86
30	ARI	-3.41	−1.55	-0.81	1.04	-1.17	-4.78	-2.16	-5.26	-10.73
31	DET	-3.61	+0.65	-10.89	-5.29	-1.65	-0.80	3.31	0.23	-10.18
32	TEN	-3.74	−0.34	-7.62	1.00	-2.65	-3.18	-1.22	-5.49	-6.99

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
LAR	7.41	-0.25	-1.66	0.35	-2.60	2.79	2.72
PIT	5.83	0.50	-2.56	2.28	-0.56	-1.10	-0.53
WAS	4.26	-4.91	1.98	-6.03	-0.76	-6.89	-3.72
MIA	2.95	1.66	-1.16	1.59	-0.30	-4.10	-8.93
NO	2.71	3.57	2.88	4.36	0.17	1.44	-4.46
BAL	1.53	-6.09	-0.58	8.37	0.18	-2.81	-1.48
SF	0.79	0.27	4.65	4.59	-0.75	-3.98	0.55
TB	0.59	3.83	0.49	-0.86	-1.77	-2.42	0.15
IND	0.35	-1.50	-0.11	0.13	-2.59	-1.56	-2.98
BUF	-0.42	6.38	1.41	3.99	-1.82	3.38	-8.65
GB	-0.48	1.53	0.38	-0.91	2.18	-2.60	2.45
ARI	-0.81	1.04	-1.17	-4.78	-2.16	-5.26	-10.73
DEN	-1.60	0.09	2.42	-1.83	4.83	4.45	3.08
KC	-1.68	-1.40	0.77	5.21	-1.59	0.08	0.69
PHI	-2.11	-1.72	5.39	-2.00	3.15	4.26	-4.47
NE	-2.16	3.62	4.06	-0.45	-4.38	1.89	0.40
DAL	-2.67	5.86	3.84	4.47	-0.99	-7.69	-11.17
NYG	-2.69	-1.15	-0.26	1.94	-3.39	-0.97	-0.36
CHI	-2.70	-1.00	-4.87	-0.06	-0.13	-1.05	-0.49
LAC	-2.95	-0.65	1.73	-1.43	2.54	2.96	0.42
CAR	-3.58	0.60	-1.60	0.02	-5.28	-3.33	-0.84
CLE	-4.28	0.93	1.11	8.23	-1.82	4.18	2.38
CIN	-4.48	-0.09	2.26	-1.54	-1.51	-5.53	2.06
MIN	-4.94	2.20	-1.21	-0.76	2.15	4.32	8.41
SEA	-5.00	-3.71	-0.34	-1.96	0.18	3.81	3.89
ATL	-5.98	-4.96	-4.53	0.40	-3.59	0.99	0.63
LV	-7.01	-5.19	-3.88	2.05	-2.34	-2.54	-2.86
NYJ	-7.56	-7.93	3.11	5.20	-1.28	-8.08	0.58
TEN	-7.62	1.00	-2.65	-3.18	-1.22	-5.49	-6.99
JAX	-7.73	-6.31	-0.03	2.01	-7.16	5.54	1.71
HOU	-8.74	-4.59	0.49	-0.69	2.20	6.44	0.00
DET	-10.89	-5.29	-1.65	-0.80	3.31	0.23	-10.18

Exp pts pass def (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (5.14), 2019 Patriots (10.68), 2020 Rams (7.41).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 10.68; the worst Lions 2020 at -10.89.

The league average has fallen from -1.35 in 2018 to -2.24 in 2020.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2020.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_passing_exp_pts_pass_def
Side: defensive
Family: Passing
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.