What Turnover pct (allowed) is

Turnover rate forced: opponent drives that ended in a turnover divided by all opponent drives, as a percentage. How often this defense ended a possession by taking the ball.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Bills led at 16.85; the league average was 12.68.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

BUF · 16.85

League average

12.68

Best to worst

8.51

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	16.85	17
2	CHI	16.75	17
3	MIA	16.06	17
4	SF	16.00	17
5	BAL	15.66	17
6	NO	15.66	17
7	NYG	15.61	17
8	DAL	15.56	17
9	CIN	14.29	17
10	PIT	14.21	17
11	TB	14.05	17
12	DET	13.76	17
13	CLE	13.48	17
14	NYJ	13.43	17
15	DEN	13.23	17
16	JAX	13.20	17
17	IND	12.62	17
18	LAC	11.98	17
19	LV	11.76	17
20	HOU	11.68	17
21	MIN	11.58	17
22	WAS	11.28	17
23	KC	10.93	17
24	PHI	10.73	17
25	GB	10.29	17
26	SEA	10.27	17
27	NE	10.05	17
28	ARI	10.00	17
29	LAR	9.42	17
30	ATL	8.63	17
31	CAR	8.51	17
32	TEN	8.33	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 16.85

League laggard

TEN · 8.33

League average

12.68

Spread (max − min)

8.51

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	16.85	4.17	100%
2	CHI	16.75	4.07	96.8%
3	MIA	16.06	3.38	93.5%
4	SF	16.00	3.32	90.3%
5	BAL	15.66	2.97	87.1%
6	NO	15.66	2.97	83.9%
7	NYG	15.61	2.93	80.6%
8	DAL	15.56	2.87	77.4%
9	CIN	14.29	1.60	74.2%
10	PIT	14.21	1.53	71%
11	TB	14.05	1.37	67.7%
12	DET	13.76	1.07	64.5%
13	CLE	13.48	0.80	61.3%
14	NYJ	13.43	0.74	58.1%
15	DEN	13.23	0.54	54.8%
16	JAX	13.20	0.52	51.6%
17	IND	12.62	-0.06	48.4%
18	LAC	11.98	-0.70	45.2%
19	LV	11.76	-0.92	41.9%
20	HOU	11.68	-1.01	38.7%
21	MIN	11.58	-1.10	35.5%
22	WAS	11.28	-1.40	32.3%
23	KC	10.93	-1.75	29%
24	PHI	10.73	-1.95	25.8%
25	GB	10.29	-2.40	22.6%
26	SEA	10.27	-2.41	19.4%
27	NE	10.05	-2.63	16.1%
28	ARI	10.00	-2.68	12.9%
29	LAR	9.42	-3.26	9.7%
30	ATL	8.63	-4.05	6.5%
31	CAR	8.51	-4.17	3.2%
32	TEN	8.33	-4.35	0%

Does Turnover pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 864–714–37 ATS (54.8%) across 2020–2025, #79 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (150–104, 59.1%); its worst 2023 (132–126, 51.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	150–104–2	59.1%
2021	272	146–124–2	54.1%
2022	271	151–113–7	57.2%
2023	272	132–126–14	51.2%
2024	272	136–127–9	51.7%
2025	272	149–120–3	55.4%

Turnover pct (allowed) in 2023 vs 2022

Bills lead at 16.85 — they ranked #6 last year. Titans are last at 8.33 — #20 last year.

The league average is 12.68, up 0.26 from 12.42 last year.

Biggest riser: Dolphins, #28 → #3. Biggest faller: Patriots, #5 → #27.

Spread between first and last: 8.51; 18 teams are within 2.51 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

MIA · +7.02

Biggest faller

NE · −5.18

Most consistent

SF · −0.04

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▲ 0.26

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	MIA	16.06	9.04	+7.02
2	NYG	15.61	8.70	+6.91
3	NO	15.66	8.95	+6.71
4	TB	14.05	10.10	+3.95
5	NYJ	13.43	9.69	+3.73
6	LV	11.76	8.15	+3.61
7	CHI	16.75	13.19	+3.57
8	CLE	13.48	10.58	+2.90
9	WAS	11.28	8.54	+2.74
10	BUF	16.85	15.03	+1.82
11	BAL	15.66	14.12	+1.53
12	DEN	13.23	11.82	+1.40
13	PIT	14.21	13.41	+0.80
14	LAC	11.98	11.52	+0.46
15	KC	10.93	10.75	+0.18
16	SF	16.00	16.04	−0.04
17	DET	13.76	13.89	−0.13
18	CIN	14.29	14.44	−0.16
19	IND	12.62	12.87	−0.25
20	CAR	8.51	9.14	−0.63
21	ARI	10.00	11.34	−1.34
22	JAX	13.20	14.75	−1.56
23	MIN	11.58	13.20	−1.62
24	DAL	15.56	17.41	−1.86
25	ATL	8.63	10.53	−1.90
26	TEN	8.33	11.46	−3.13
27	SEA	10.27	13.68	−3.41
28	HOU	11.68	15.27	−3.60
29	GB	10.29	14.61	−4.32
30	LAR	9.42	14.12	−4.70
31	PHI	10.73	15.85	−5.11
32	NE	10.05	15.23	−5.18

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 14.42

Multi-year laggard

NYJ · 9.34

Biggest improver

JAX · +1.05/yr

Biggest decliner

DAL · −2.03/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	14.42	−0.86	15.88	14.81	15.03	16.85	17.82	11.30	9.26
2	PIT	14.31	+0.38	14.29	11.62	13.41	14.21	17.39	15.00	14.29
3	MIN	14.18	+0.90	12.57	12.63	13.20	11.58	16.84	12.83	19.64
4	CIN	14.14	+0.99	10.44	12.37	14.44	14.29	13.90	16.22	17.31
5	GB	13.27	−0.05	12.88	14.12	14.61	10.29	17.49	7.98	15.52
6	LAR	13.26	−0.33	13.76	16.04	14.12	9.42	11.56	17.03	10.91
7	TB	13.24	−0.27	15.47	15.46	10.10	14.05	9.73	13.59	14.29
8	CHI	13.14	+0.57	9.84	10.38	13.19	16.75	13.90	18.28	9.62
9	NE	12.98	−1.31	16.25	18.92	15.23	10.05	6.74	12.57	11.11
10	IND	12.76	−1.65	15.52	18.38	12.87	12.62	13.43	12.92	3.57
11	SEA	12.70	+0.91	12.36	9.33	13.68	10.27	10.05	14.87	18.33
12	DAL	12.51	−2.03	13.44	18.36	17.41	15.56	12.06	6.74	4.00
13	MIA	12.40	−1.14	17.84	13.92	9.04	16.06	9.78	11.80	8.33
14	NYG	12.17	−0.14	12.65	13.76	8.70	15.61	11.70	9.78	12.96
15	BAL	12.14	−0.11	13.37	9.09	14.12	15.66	9.04	10.99	12.73
16	LAC	12.13	+0.23	11.24	12.50	11.52	11.98	11.54	13.26	12.90
17	KC	12.10	−0.49	13.37	16.18	10.75	10.93	11.24	8.24	13.95
18	JAX	12.08	+1.05	10.33	7.30	14.75	13.20	4.97	17.37	16.67
19	SF	11.94	−0.27	12.04	9.14	16.04	16.00	9.39	9.41	11.54
20	HOU	11.93	+0.44	6.47	12.11	15.27	11.68	13.92	14.81	9.26
21	ARI	11.93	−0.26	11.80	15.93	11.34	10.00	10.53	10.93	12.96
22	DET	11.75	−0.04	9.20	11.35	13.89	13.76	14.21	10.58	9.26
23	NO	11.66	−0.68	12.71	14.07	8.95	15.66	11.23	11.96	7.02
24	DEN	11.34	−0.13	10.00	12.64	11.82	13.23	12.12	7.25	12.28
25	PHI	11.28	−0.33	10.15	9.29	15.85	10.73	15.56	12.02	5.36
26	ATL	11.24	−0.16	12.43	12.71	10.53	8.63	10.67	13.19	10.53
27	CLE	10.71	−0.47	13.17	10.38	10.58	13.48	7.48	9.36	10.53
28	LV	10.66	+0.92	10.00	8.56	8.15	11.76	8.42	10.50	17.24
29	CAR	10.62	+0.10	12.80	10.00	9.14	8.51	9.52	12.35	12.00
30	WAS	10.33	−0.41	12.57	12.02	8.54	11.28	9.04	7.02	11.86
31	TEN	9.87	−1.08	13.45	10.53	11.46	8.33	11.98	9.52	3.85
32	NYJ	9.34	−0.56	12.22	7.33	9.69	13.43	9.55	3.74	9.43

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	15.88	14.81	15.03	16.85	17.82	11.30	9.26
CHI	9.84	10.38	13.19	16.75	13.90	18.28	9.62
MIA	17.84	13.92	9.04	16.06	9.78	11.80	8.33
SF	12.04	9.14	16.04	16.00	9.39	9.41	11.54
BAL	13.37	9.09	14.12	15.66	9.04	10.99	12.73
NO	12.71	14.07	8.95	15.66	11.23	11.96	7.02
NYG	12.65	13.76	8.70	15.61	11.70	9.78	12.96
DAL	13.44	18.36	17.41	15.56	12.06	6.74	4.00
CIN	10.44	12.37	14.44	14.29	13.90	16.22	17.31
PIT	14.29	11.62	13.41	14.21	17.39	15.00	14.29
TB	15.47	15.46	10.10	14.05	9.73	13.59	14.29
DET	9.20	11.35	13.89	13.76	14.21	10.58	9.26
CLE	13.17	10.38	10.58	13.48	7.48	9.36	10.53
NYJ	12.22	7.33	9.69	13.43	9.55	3.74	9.43
DEN	10.00	12.64	11.82	13.23	12.12	7.25	12.28
JAX	10.33	7.30	14.75	13.20	4.97	17.37	16.67
IND	15.52	18.38	12.87	12.62	13.43	12.92	3.57
LAC	11.24	12.50	11.52	11.98	11.54	13.26	12.90
LV	10.00	8.56	8.15	11.76	8.42	10.50	17.24
HOU	6.47	12.11	15.27	11.68	13.92	14.81	9.26
MIN	12.57	12.63	13.20	11.58	16.84	12.83	19.64
WAS	12.57	12.02	8.54	11.28	9.04	7.02	11.86
KC	13.37	16.18	10.75	10.93	11.24	8.24	13.95
PHI	10.15	9.29	15.85	10.73	15.56	12.02	5.36
GB	12.88	14.12	14.61	10.29	17.49	7.98	15.52
SEA	12.36	9.33	13.68	10.27	10.05	14.87	18.33
NE	16.25	18.92	15.23	10.05	6.74	12.57	11.11
ARI	11.80	15.93	11.34	10.00	10.53	10.93	12.96
LAR	13.76	16.04	14.12	9.42	11.56	17.03	10.91
ATL	12.43	12.71	10.53	8.63	10.67	13.19	10.53
CAR	12.80	10.00	9.14	8.51	9.52	12.35	12.00
TEN	13.45	10.53	11.46	8.33	11.98	9.52	3.85

Turnover pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (19.05), 2019 Steelers (20.94), 2020 Dolphins (17.84), 2021 Patriots (18.92), 2022 Cowboys (17.41), 2023 Bills (16.85).

The best season on record is Steelers 2019 at 20.94; the worst 49ers 2018 at 5.91.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_drives_turnover_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Drive Averages
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.