What Score pct (allowed) is

Scoring rate allowed: opponent drives that ended in points divided by all opponent drives, as a percentage. How reliably opponents turned a possession into a result against this defense.

Lower is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Bills led at 27.51; the league average was 37.25.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

BUF · 27.51

League average

37.25

Best to worst

21.18

All 32 teams, lower is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	BUF	27.51	17
2	NE	28.11	17
3	NO	31.66	17
4	DAL	31.88	17
5	DEN	32.76	17
6	CIN	32.99	17
7	TB	32.99	17
8	BAL	33.33	17
9	SF	34.41	17
10	ARI	34.62	17
11	LAR	34.76	17
12	IND	35.14	17
13	SEA	35.23	17
14	GB	35.59	17
15	MIA	36.08	17
16	KC	36.42	17
17	PHI	36.61	17
18	TEN	36.84	17
19	CAR	37.00	17
20	CLE	37.16	17
21	PIT	38.38	17
22	CHI	39.34	17
23	MIN	39.39	17
24	LV	40.11	17
25	NYG	40.21	17
26	WAS	41.53	17
27	ATL	42.54	17
28	HOU	43.16	17
29	LAC	44.02	17
30	JAX	45.51	17
31	DET	48.11	17
32	NYJ	48.69	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

BUF · 27.51

League laggard

NYJ · 48.69

League average

37.25

Spread (max − min)

21.18

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	BUF	27.51	-9.74	100%
2	NE	28.11	-9.14	96.8%
3	NO	31.66	-5.59	93.5%
4	DAL	31.88	-5.37	90.3%
5	DEN	32.76	-4.49	87.1%
6	CIN	32.99	-4.26	83.9%
7	TB	32.99	-4.26	80.6%
8	BAL	33.33	-3.92	77.4%
9	SF	34.41	-2.84	74.2%
10	ARI	34.62	-2.64	71%
11	LAR	34.76	-2.49	67.7%
12	IND	35.14	-2.12	64.5%
13	SEA	35.23	-2.02	61.3%
14	GB	35.59	-1.66	58.1%
15	MIA	36.08	-1.17	54.8%
16	KC	36.42	-0.84	51.6%
17	PHI	36.61	-0.64	48.4%
18	TEN	36.84	-0.41	45.2%
19	CAR	37.00	-0.25	41.9%
20	CLE	37.16	-0.09	38.7%
21	PIT	38.38	1.13	35.5%
22	CHI	39.34	2.09	32.3%
23	MIN	39.39	2.14	29%
24	LV	40.11	2.85	25.8%
25	NYG	40.21	2.96	22.6%
26	WAS	41.53	4.28	19.4%
27	ATL	42.54	5.29	16.1%
28	HOU	43.16	5.91	12.9%
29	LAC	44.02	6.77	9.7%
30	JAX	45.51	8.25	6.5%
31	DET	48.11	10.86	3.2%
32	NYJ	48.69	11.44	0%

Does Score pct (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 866–712–37 ATS (54.9%) across 2020–2025, #77 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2020 (148–106, 58.3%); its worst 2023 (132–126, 51.2%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	148–106–2	58.3%
2021	272	150–120–2	55.6%
2022	271	146–118–7	55.3%
2023	272	132–126–14	51.2%
2024	272	143–120–9	54.4%
2025	272	147–122–3	54.6%

Score pct (allowed) in 2021 vs 2020

Bills lead at 27.51 — they ranked #16 last year. Jets are last at 48.69 — #25 last year.

The league average is 37.25, down 2.10 from 39.35 last year.

Biggest riser: Broncos, #24 → #5. Biggest faller: Commanders, #5 → #26.

Spread between first and last: 21.18; 22 teams are within 5.05 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

WAS · +10.12

Biggest faller

BUF · −11.90

Most consistent

IND · +0.08

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▼ -2.10

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	WAS	41.53	31.41	+10.12
2	PIT	38.38	29.10	+9.28
3	LAR	34.76	26.98	+7.78
4	MIA	36.08	29.73	+6.35
5	NYJ	48.69	43.89	+4.80
6	BAL	33.33	29.65	+3.68
7	CHI	39.34	37.16	+2.19
8	LAC	44.02	42.13	+1.89
9	DET	48.11	46.55	+1.56
10	ATL	42.54	41.24	+1.30
11	KC	36.42	36.05	+0.37
12	IND	35.14	35.06	+0.08
13	TB	32.99	33.15	−0.16
14	PHI	36.61	37.56	−0.95
15	NYG	40.21	41.57	−1.35
16	ARI	34.62	36.52	−1.90
17	JAX	45.51	47.83	−2.32
18	NO	31.66	34.25	−2.60
19	SF	34.41	37.17	−2.76
20	GB	35.59	38.65	−3.06
21	HOU	43.16	46.47	−3.31
22	SEA	35.23	39.89	−4.65
23	CLE	37.16	43.11	−5.96
24	TEN	36.84	44.44	−7.60
25	CAR	37.00	45.12	−8.12
26	MIN	39.39	48.57	−9.18
27	LV	40.11	49.41	−9.30
28	CIN	32.99	42.86	−9.87
29	NE	28.11	38.13	−10.02
30	DAL	31.88	42.47	−10.59
31	DEN	32.76	43.68	−10.93
32	BUF	27.51	39.41	−11.90

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

NE · 33.49

Multi-year laggard

ARI · 42.01

Biggest improver

MIN · −3.22/yr

Biggest decliner

MIA · +2.59/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	NE	33.49	−0.05	38.13	28.11	31.47	31.10	42.13	32.00	31.48
2	SEA	34.60	−1.85	39.89	35.23	36.84	40.00	33.67	28.21	28.33
3	BAL	35.05	+1.83	29.65	33.33	35.03	28.28	36.17	42.86	40.00
4	BUF	35.10	+1.26	39.41	27.51	30.06	32.61	36.21	37.29	42.59
5	KC	35.66	+0.46	36.05	36.42	36.02	27.87	36.09	37.65	39.53
6	PHI	35.73	−0.20	37.56	36.61	32.24	40.68	31.11	34.43	37.50
7	CLE	35.74	−0.72	43.11	37.16	38.10	24.35	33.64	33.50	40.35
8	TB	35.76	+1.27	33.15	32.99	32.83	34.05	40.00	38.04	39.29
9	LAR	35.91	+1.19	26.98	34.76	40.11	35.60	42.20	33.52	38.18
10	SF	35.98	+1.11	37.17	34.41	25.13	33.71	44.75	38.24	38.46
11	PIT	36.02	+1.15	29.10	38.38	36.87	33.68	34.24	40.56	39.29
12	DEN	36.21	−0.74	43.68	32.76	34.98	39.68	30.81	34.72	36.84
13	GB	36.45	−0.57	38.65	35.59	37.64	38.29	32.24	41.72	31.03
14	MIN	36.53	−3.22	48.57	39.39	40.61	36.32	31.58	34.22	25.00
15	NO	36.96	+2.36	34.25	31.66	33.68	31.31	39.04	39.67	49.12
16	HOU	37.69	−1.47	46.47	43.16	34.48	34.01	35.05	28.04	42.59
17	MIA	37.75	+2.59	29.73	36.08	37.23	31.61	38.04	41.57	50.00
18	LAC	37.82	−1.14	42.13	44.02	36.65	35.42	32.42	35.36	38.71
19	CHI	37.96	−0.30	37.16	39.34	41.21	33.51	40.64	39.25	34.62
20	JAX	38.20	−2.64	47.83	45.51	35.52	32.49	45.30	31.58	29.17
21	NYG	38.33	−1.05	41.57	40.21	40.76	34.63	37.23	42.39	31.48
22	CIN	38.42	+0.38	42.86	32.99	35.56	38.10	38.50	40.54	40.38
23	IND	38.82	+1.93	35.06	35.14	35.15	38.35	37.81	43.82	46.43
24	DAL	40.03	+2.30	42.47	31.88	32.84	31.67	42.21	51.12	48.00
25	LV	40.38	−1.17	49.41	40.11	39.67	32.62	42.63	41.99	36.21
26	ATL	40.44	−0.81	41.24	42.54	43.27	37.56	42.70	40.66	35.09
27	TEN	40.66	+0.69	44.44	36.84	33.33	42.78	39.06	43.92	44.23
28	NYJ	40.66	−0.43	43.89	48.69	32.14	31.02	44.38	48.66	35.85
29	WAS	40.67	+2.33	31.41	41.53	31.16	45.64	41.81	47.37	45.76
30	CAR	40.81	+0.50	45.12	37.00	34.01	36.70	50.26	40.59	42.00
31	DET	41.55	−1.03	46.55	48.11	40.56	36.51	34.97	39.68	44.44
32	ARI	42.01	+2.30	36.52	34.62	40.72	43.33	42.11	48.63	48.15

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
BUF	39.41	27.51	30.06	32.61	36.21	37.29	42.59
NE	38.13	28.11	31.47	31.10	42.13	32.00	31.48
NO	34.25	31.66	33.68	31.31	39.04	39.67	49.12
DAL	42.47	31.88	32.84	31.67	42.21	51.12	48.00
DEN	43.68	32.76	34.98	39.68	30.81	34.72	36.84
CIN	42.86	32.99	35.56	38.10	38.50	40.54	40.38
TB	33.15	32.99	32.83	34.05	40.00	38.04	39.29
BAL	29.65	33.33	35.03	28.28	36.17	42.86	40.00
SF	37.17	34.41	25.13	33.71	44.75	38.24	38.46
ARI	36.52	34.62	40.72	43.33	42.11	48.63	48.15
LAR	26.98	34.76	40.11	35.60	42.20	33.52	38.18
IND	35.06	35.14	35.15	38.35	37.81	43.82	46.43
SEA	39.89	35.23	36.84	40.00	33.67	28.21	28.33
GB	38.65	35.59	37.64	38.29	32.24	41.72	31.03
MIA	29.73	36.08	37.23	31.61	38.04	41.57	50.00
KC	36.05	36.42	36.02	27.87	36.09	37.65	39.53
PHI	37.56	36.61	32.24	40.68	31.11	34.43	37.50
TEN	44.44	36.84	33.33	42.78	39.06	43.92	44.23
CAR	45.12	37.00	34.01	36.70	50.26	40.59	42.00
CLE	43.11	37.16	38.10	24.35	33.64	33.50	40.35
PIT	29.10	38.38	36.87	33.68	34.24	40.56	39.29
CHI	37.16	39.34	41.21	33.51	40.64	39.25	34.62
MIN	48.57	39.39	40.61	36.32	31.58	34.22	25.00
LV	49.41	40.11	39.67	32.62	42.63	41.99	36.21
NYG	41.57	40.21	40.76	34.63	37.23	42.39	31.48
WAS	31.41	41.53	31.16	45.64	41.81	47.37	45.76
ATL	41.24	42.54	43.27	37.56	42.70	40.66	35.09
HOU	46.47	43.16	34.48	34.01	35.05	28.04	42.59
LAC	42.13	44.02	36.65	35.42	32.42	35.36	38.71
JAX	47.83	45.51	35.52	32.49	45.30	31.58	29.17
DET	46.55	48.11	40.56	36.51	34.97	39.68	44.44
NYJ	43.89	48.69	32.14	31.02	44.38	48.66	35.85

Score pct (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Ravens (28.42), 2019 Patriots (19.19), 2020 Rams (26.98), 2021 Bills (27.51).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 19.19; the worst Raiders 2020 at 49.41.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_drives_score_pct
Side: defensive
Family: Drive Averages
Data source: P + N
Polarity: lower is better
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.