What Fourth down att is

Fourth downs the offense went for, instead of punting or kicking. Increasingly a coaching philosophy as much as a game situation — aggressive staffs attempt many, conservative ones few.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Panthers led at 2.82; the league average was 1.46.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

CAR · 2.82

League average

1.46

Best to worst

2.06

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	CAR	2.82	17
2	DET	2.35	17
3	NYG	2.18	17
4	ARI	2	17
5	CLE	1.88	17
6	IND	1.88	17
7	LAC	1.88	17
8	JAX	1.71	17
9	NYJ	1.71	17
10	WAS	1.71	17
11	MIN	1.65	17
12	CHI	1.53	17
13	PHI	1.53	17
14	NE	1.47	17
15	GB	1.41	17
16	MIA	1.41	17
17	LV	1.35	17
18	DAL	1.29	17
19	HOU	1.24	17
20	LAR	1.24	17
21	DEN	1.18	17
22	TEN	1.18	17
23	ATL	1.12	17
24	CIN	1.12	17
25	KC	1.12	17
26	NO	1.12	17
27	PIT	1.12	17
28	TB	1.06	17
29	BUF	0.94	17
30	SEA	0.94	17
31	BAL	0.76	17
32	SF	0.76	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

CAR · 2.82

League laggard

SF · 0.76

League average

1.46

Spread (max − min)

2.06

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	CAR	2.82	1.37	100%
2	DET	2.35	0.90	96.8%
3	NYG	2.18	0.72	93.5%
4	ARI	2	0.54	90.3%
5	CLE	1.88	0.42	87.1%
6	IND	1.88	0.42	83.9%
7	LAC	1.88	0.42	80.6%
8	JAX	1.71	0.25	77.4%
9	NYJ	1.71	0.25	74.2%
10	WAS	1.71	0.25	71%
11	MIN	1.65	0.19	67.7%
12	CHI	1.53	0.07	64.5%
13	PHI	1.53	0.07	61.3%
14	NE	1.47	0.01	58.1%
15	GB	1.41	-0.05	54.8%
16	MIA	1.41	-0.05	51.6%
17	LV	1.35	-0.10	48.4%
18	DAL	1.29	-0.16	45.2%
19	HOU	1.24	-0.22	41.9%
20	LAR	1.24	-0.22	38.7%
21	DEN	1.18	-0.28	35.5%
22	TEN	1.18	-0.28	32.3%
23	ATL	1.12	-0.34	29%
24	CIN	1.12	-0.34	25.8%
25	KC	1.12	-0.34	22.6%
26	NO	1.12	-0.34	19.4%
27	PIT	1.12	-0.34	16.1%
28	TB	1.06	-0.40	12.9%
29	BUF	0.94	-0.52	9.7%
30	SEA	0.94	-0.52	6.5%
31	BAL	0.76	-0.69	3.2%
32	SF	0.76	-0.69	0%

Does Fourth down att matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 751–827–37 ATS (47.6%) across 2020–2025, #289 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (114–149, 43.3%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	120–134–2	47.2%
2021	272	124–146–2	45.9%
2022	271	137–127–7	51.9%
2023	272	128–130–14	49.6%
2024	272	114–149–9	43.3%
2025	272	128–141–3	47.6%

Fourth down att in 2023 vs 2022

Panthers lead at 2.82 — they ranked #17 last year. 49ers are last at 0.76 — #25 last year.

The league average is 1.46, up 0.10 from 1.35 last year.

Biggest riser: Panthers, #17 → #1. Biggest faller: Buccaneers, #8 → #28.

Spread between first and last: 2.06; 24 teams are within 0.46 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

CAR · +1.59

Biggest faller

CLE · −0.59

Most consistent

MIA · 0

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▲ 0.10

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	CAR	2.82	1.24	+1.59
2	NYG	2.18	1.24	+0.94
3	NE	1.47	0.76	+0.71
4	MIN	1.65	1.12	+0.53
5	NO	1.12	0.65	+0.47
6	KC	1.12	0.71	+0.41
7	CIN	1.12	0.75	+0.37
8	IND	1.88	1.53	+0.35
9	LAC	1.88	1.65	+0.24
10	PIT	1.12	0.88	+0.24
11	WAS	1.71	1.47	+0.24
12	DET	2.35	2.18	+0.18
13	DAL	1.29	1.12	+0.18
14	TEN	1.18	1	+0.18
15	BUF	0.94	0.81	+0.13
16	JAX	1.71	1.59	+0.12
17	LAR	1.24	1.12	+0.12
18	CHI	1.53	1.41	+0.12
19	ATL	1.12	1.06	+0.06
20	NYJ	1.71	1.65	+0.06
21	MIA	1.41	1.41	0
22	LV	1.35	1.41	−0.06
23	DEN	1.18	1.41	−0.24
24	SF	0.76	1	−0.24
25	HOU	1.24	1.53	−0.29
26	SEA	0.94	1.24	−0.29
27	PHI	1.53	1.88	−0.35
28	ARI	2	2.41	−0.41
29	GB	1.41	1.82	−0.41
30	BAL	0.76	1.18	−0.41
31	TB	1.06	1.65	−0.59
32	CLE	1.88	2.47	−0.59

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DET · 2.02

Multi-year laggard

SF · 0.93

Biggest improver

NO · +0.24/yr

Biggest decliner

JAX · −0.10/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DET	2.02	+0.05	1.25	2.41	2.18	2.35	1.94	1.82	2.20
2	CAR	1.97	+0.07	1.69	2	1.24	2.82	1.76	2.29	2
3	CHI	1.96	+0.13	1.75	2.12	1.41	1.53	2.24	1.71	3
4	CLE	1.92	+0.01	1.50	1.71	2.47	1.88	2.59	1.71	1.60
5	IND	1.73	+0.06	1.56	1.71	1.53	1.88	1.65	1.59	2.20
6	NYG	1.69	+0.01	1.38	1.76	1.24	2.18	2.18	2.29	0.80
7	ARI	1.68	−0.07	1.56	1.71	2.41	2	1.06	1.65	1.40
8	PHI	1.66	−0.07	2.19	1.47	1.88	1.53	1.59	1.18	1.80
9	LAC	1.54	−0.08	1.56	2	1.65	1.88	0.94	1.18	1.60
10	NYJ	1.54	+0.01	1.13	1.71	1.65	1.71	1.41	2.41	0.80
11	JAX	1.54	−0.10	1.63	1.82	1.59	1.71	1.53	1.71	0.80
12	WAS	1.50	+0.00	1.13	1.88	1.47	1.71	1.35	1.53	1.40
13	GB	1.46	+0.05	1.31	1.29	1.82	1.41	0.94	1.47	2
14	DAL	1.46	−0.06	1.94	1.41	1.12	1.29	1.65	2	0.80
15	LV	1.45	+0.09	1.31	1.12	1.41	1.35	1.47	1.88	1.60
16	NO	1.42	+0.24	0.94	1.24	0.65	1.12	1.59	2	2.40
17	MIA	1.33	+0.10	0.63	1.29	1.41	1.41	1.82	1.35	1.40
18	LAR	1.33	+0.11	1.06	1.12	1.12	1.24	1.41	1.76	1.60
19	ATL	1.33	−0.07	1.63	1.41	1.06	1.12	1.82	1.65	0.60
20	TEN	1.31	+0.08	1	1.41	1	1.18	1.35	2.06	1.20
21	NE	1.25	+0.12	1.06	0.94	0.76	1.47	1.41	1.47	1.60
22	HOU	1.23	+0.02	1	1.24	1.53	1.24	1.06	1.12	1.40
23	TB	1.21	+0.08	0.88	0.94	1.65	1.06	0.82	1.71	1.40
24	KC	1.19	+0.16	1	0.88	0.71	1.12	1	1.88	1.75
25	MIN	1.18	−0.09	1.44	1.29	1.12	1.65	0.76	1.41	0.60
26	DEN	1.17	−0.08	0.94	1.65	1.41	1.18	1.24	1.18	0.60
27	BAL	1.12	−0.06	1.19	1.59	1.18	0.76	0.88	1.47	0.80
28	PIT	1.12	−0.01	1.19	1.24	0.88	1.12	1.06	1.35	1
29	CIN	1.12	−0.08	1.69	1.18	0.75	1.12	1.12	1.18	0.80
30	BUF	1.09	+0.08	0.63	1.29	0.81	0.94	1.29	1.88	0.80
31	SEA	0.96	+0.03	0.88	0.65	1.24	0.94	1.12	0.71	1.20
32	SF	0.93	−0.05	0.94	1.18	1	0.76	0.94	1.29	0.40

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CAR	1.69	2	1.24	2.82	1.76	2.29	2
DET	1.25	2.41	2.18	2.35	1.94	1.82	2.20
NYG	1.38	1.76	1.24	2.18	2.18	2.29	0.80
ARI	1.56	1.71	2.41	2	1.06	1.65	1.40
CLE	1.50	1.71	2.47	1.88	2.59	1.71	1.60
IND	1.56	1.71	1.53	1.88	1.65	1.59	2.20
LAC	1.56	2	1.65	1.88	0.94	1.18	1.60
JAX	1.63	1.82	1.59	1.71	1.53	1.71	0.80
NYJ	1.13	1.71	1.65	1.71	1.41	2.41	0.80
WAS	1.13	1.88	1.47	1.71	1.35	1.53	1.40
MIN	1.44	1.29	1.12	1.65	0.76	1.41	0.60
CHI	1.75	2.12	1.41	1.53	2.24	1.71	3
PHI	2.19	1.47	1.88	1.53	1.59	1.18	1.80
NE	1.06	0.94	0.76	1.47	1.41	1.47	1.60
GB	1.31	1.29	1.82	1.41	0.94	1.47	2
MIA	0.63	1.29	1.41	1.41	1.82	1.35	1.40
LV	1.31	1.12	1.41	1.35	1.47	1.88	1.60
DAL	1.94	1.41	1.12	1.29	1.65	2	0.80
HOU	1	1.24	1.53	1.24	1.06	1.12	1.40
LAR	1.06	1.12	1.12	1.24	1.41	1.76	1.60
DEN	0.94	1.65	1.41	1.18	1.24	1.18	0.60
TEN	1	1.41	1	1.18	1.35	2.06	1.20
ATL	1.63	1.41	1.06	1.12	1.82	1.65	0.60
CIN	1.69	1.18	0.75	1.12	1.12	1.18	0.80
KC	1	0.88	0.71	1.12	1	1.88	1.75
NO	0.94	1.24	0.65	1.12	1.59	2	2.40
PIT	1.19	1.24	0.88	1.12	1.06	1.35	1
TB	0.88	0.94	1.65	1.06	0.82	1.71	1.40
BUF	0.63	1.29	0.81	0.94	1.29	1.88	0.80
SEA	0.88	0.65	1.24	0.94	1.12	0.71	1.20
BAL	1.19	1.59	1.18	0.76	0.88	1.47	0.80
SF	0.94	1.18	1	0.76	0.94	1.29	0.40

Fourth down att since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Broncos (1.56), 2019 Giants (1.94), 2020 Eagles (2.19), 2021 Lions (2.41), 2022 Browns (2.47), 2023 Panthers (2.82).

The best season on record is Panthers 2023 at 2.82; the worst Chargers 2018 at 0.50.

The league average has risen from 1.04 in 2018 to 1.46 in 2023.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_att
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.