What Fourth down att is

Fourth downs the offense went for, instead of punting or kicking. Increasingly a coaching philosophy as much as a game situation — aggressive staffs attempt many, conservative ones few.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2021 the Lions led at 2.41; the league average was 1.46.

League snapshot — 2021

League leader

DET · 2.41

League average

1.46

Best to worst

1.76

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	DET	2.41	17
2	CHI	2.12	17
3	CAR	2	17
4	LAC	2	17
5	WAS	1.88	17
6	JAX	1.82	17
7	NYG	1.76	17
8	ARI	1.71	17
9	CLE	1.71	17
10	IND	1.71	17
11	NYJ	1.71	17
12	DEN	1.65	17
13	BAL	1.59	17
14	PHI	1.47	17
15	ATL	1.41	17
16	DAL	1.41	17
17	TEN	1.41	17
18	BUF	1.29	17
19	GB	1.29	17
20	MIA	1.29	17
21	MIN	1.29	17
22	HOU	1.24	17
23	NO	1.24	17
24	PIT	1.24	17
25	CIN	1.18	17
26	SF	1.18	17
27	LAR	1.12	17
28	LV	1.12	17
29	NE	0.94	17
30	TB	0.94	17
31	KC	0.88	17
32	SEA	0.65	17

At a glance — 2021

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DET · 2.41

League laggard

SEA · 0.65

League average

1.46

Spread (max − min)

1.76

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DET	2.41	0.95	100%
2	CHI	2.12	0.66	96.8%
3	CAR	2	0.54	93.5%
4	LAC	2	0.54	90.3%
5	WAS	1.88	0.42	87.1%
6	JAX	1.82	0.37	83.9%
7	NYG	1.76	0.31	80.6%
8	ARI	1.71	0.25	77.4%
9	CLE	1.71	0.25	74.2%
10	IND	1.71	0.25	71%
11	NYJ	1.71	0.25	67.7%
12	DEN	1.65	0.19	64.5%
13	BAL	1.59	0.13	61.3%
14	PHI	1.47	0.01	58.1%
15	ATL	1.41	-0.05	54.8%
16	DAL	1.41	-0.05	51.6%
17	TEN	1.41	-0.05	48.4%
18	BUF	1.29	-0.16	45.2%
19	GB	1.29	-0.16	41.9%
20	MIA	1.29	-0.16	38.7%
21	MIN	1.29	-0.16	35.5%
22	HOU	1.24	-0.22	32.3%
23	NO	1.24	-0.22	29%
24	PIT	1.24	-0.22	25.8%
25	CIN	1.18	-0.28	22.6%
26	SF	1.18	-0.28	19.4%
27	LAR	1.12	-0.34	16.1%
28	LV	1.12	-0.34	12.9%
29	NE	0.94	-0.52	9.7%
30	TB	0.94	-0.52	6.5%
31	KC	0.88	-0.58	3.2%
32	SEA	0.65	-0.81	0%

Does Fourth down att matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 751–827–37 ATS (47.6%) across 2020–2025, #289 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (114–149, 43.3%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	120–134–2	47.2%
2021	272	124–146–2	45.9%
2022	271	137–127–7	51.9%
2023	272	128–130–14	49.6%
2024	272	114–149–9	43.3%
2025	272	128–141–3	47.6%

Fourth down att in 2021 vs 2020

Lions lead at 2.41 — they ranked #16 last year. Seahawks are last at 0.65 — #29 last year.

The league average is 1.46, up 0.18 from 1.28 last year.

Biggest riser: Lions, #16 → #1. Biggest faller: Bengals, #5 → #25.

Spread between first and last: 1.76; 23 teams are within 0.39 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2021 vs 2020

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

DET · +1.16

Biggest faller

PHI · −0.72

Most consistent

GB · −0.02

League trend 2021 vs 2020

▲ 0.18

Rank	Team	2021	2020	Δ
1	DET	2.41	1.25	+1.16
2	WAS	1.88	1.13	+0.76
3	DEN	1.65	0.94	+0.71
4	BUF	1.29	0.63	+0.67
5	MIA	1.29	0.63	+0.67
6	NYJ	1.71	1.13	+0.58
7	LAC	2	1.56	+0.44
8	TEN	1.41	1	+0.41
9	BAL	1.59	1.19	+0.40
10	NYG	1.76	1.38	+0.39
11	CHI	2.12	1.75	+0.37
12	CAR	2	1.69	+0.31
13	NO	1.24	0.94	+0.30
14	SF	1.18	0.94	+0.24
15	HOU	1.24	1	+0.24
16	CLE	1.71	1.50	+0.21
17	JAX	1.82	1.63	+0.20
18	ARI	1.71	1.56	+0.14
19	IND	1.71	1.56	+0.14
20	TB	0.94	0.88	+0.07
21	LAR	1.12	1.06	+0.06
22	PIT	1.24	1.19	+0.05
23	GB	1.29	1.31	−0.02
24	KC	0.88	1	−0.12
25	NE	0.94	1.06	−0.12
26	MIN	1.29	1.44	−0.14
27	LV	1.12	1.31	−0.19
28	ATL	1.41	1.63	−0.21
29	SEA	0.65	0.88	−0.23
30	CIN	1.18	1.69	−0.51
31	DAL	1.41	1.94	−0.53
32	PHI	1.47	2.19	−0.72

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DET · 2.02

Multi-year laggard

SF · 0.93

Biggest improver

NO · +0.24/yr

Biggest decliner

JAX · −0.10/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DET	2.02	+0.05	1.25	2.41	2.18	2.35	1.94	1.82	2.20
2	CAR	1.97	+0.07	1.69	2	1.24	2.82	1.76	2.29	2
3	CHI	1.96	+0.13	1.75	2.12	1.41	1.53	2.24	1.71	3
4	CLE	1.92	+0.01	1.50	1.71	2.47	1.88	2.59	1.71	1.60
5	IND	1.73	+0.06	1.56	1.71	1.53	1.88	1.65	1.59	2.20
6	NYG	1.69	+0.01	1.38	1.76	1.24	2.18	2.18	2.29	0.80
7	ARI	1.68	−0.07	1.56	1.71	2.41	2	1.06	1.65	1.40
8	PHI	1.66	−0.07	2.19	1.47	1.88	1.53	1.59	1.18	1.80
9	LAC	1.54	−0.08	1.56	2	1.65	1.88	0.94	1.18	1.60
10	NYJ	1.54	+0.01	1.13	1.71	1.65	1.71	1.41	2.41	0.80
11	JAX	1.54	−0.10	1.63	1.82	1.59	1.71	1.53	1.71	0.80
12	WAS	1.50	+0.00	1.13	1.88	1.47	1.71	1.35	1.53	1.40
13	GB	1.46	+0.05	1.31	1.29	1.82	1.41	0.94	1.47	2
14	DAL	1.46	−0.06	1.94	1.41	1.12	1.29	1.65	2	0.80
15	LV	1.45	+0.09	1.31	1.12	1.41	1.35	1.47	1.88	1.60
16	NO	1.42	+0.24	0.94	1.24	0.65	1.12	1.59	2	2.40
17	MIA	1.33	+0.10	0.63	1.29	1.41	1.41	1.82	1.35	1.40
18	LAR	1.33	+0.11	1.06	1.12	1.12	1.24	1.41	1.76	1.60
19	ATL	1.33	−0.07	1.63	1.41	1.06	1.12	1.82	1.65	0.60
20	TEN	1.31	+0.08	1	1.41	1	1.18	1.35	2.06	1.20
21	NE	1.25	+0.12	1.06	0.94	0.76	1.47	1.41	1.47	1.60
22	HOU	1.23	+0.02	1	1.24	1.53	1.24	1.06	1.12	1.40
23	TB	1.21	+0.08	0.88	0.94	1.65	1.06	0.82	1.71	1.40
24	KC	1.19	+0.16	1	0.88	0.71	1.12	1	1.88	1.75
25	MIN	1.18	−0.09	1.44	1.29	1.12	1.65	0.76	1.41	0.60
26	DEN	1.17	−0.08	0.94	1.65	1.41	1.18	1.24	1.18	0.60
27	BAL	1.12	−0.06	1.19	1.59	1.18	0.76	0.88	1.47	0.80
28	PIT	1.12	−0.01	1.19	1.24	0.88	1.12	1.06	1.35	1
29	CIN	1.12	−0.08	1.69	1.18	0.75	1.12	1.12	1.18	0.80
30	BUF	1.09	+0.08	0.63	1.29	0.81	0.94	1.29	1.88	0.80
31	SEA	0.96	+0.03	0.88	0.65	1.24	0.94	1.12	0.71	1.20
32	SF	0.93	−0.05	0.94	1.18	1	0.76	0.94	1.29	0.40

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DET	1.25	2.41	2.18	2.35	1.94	1.82	2.20
CHI	1.75	2.12	1.41	1.53	2.24	1.71	3
CAR	1.69	2	1.24	2.82	1.76	2.29	2
LAC	1.56	2	1.65	1.88	0.94	1.18	1.60
WAS	1.13	1.88	1.47	1.71	1.35	1.53	1.40
JAX	1.63	1.82	1.59	1.71	1.53	1.71	0.80
NYG	1.38	1.76	1.24	2.18	2.18	2.29	0.80
ARI	1.56	1.71	2.41	2	1.06	1.65	1.40
CLE	1.50	1.71	2.47	1.88	2.59	1.71	1.60
IND	1.56	1.71	1.53	1.88	1.65	1.59	2.20
NYJ	1.13	1.71	1.65	1.71	1.41	2.41	0.80
DEN	0.94	1.65	1.41	1.18	1.24	1.18	0.60
BAL	1.19	1.59	1.18	0.76	0.88	1.47	0.80
PHI	2.19	1.47	1.88	1.53	1.59	1.18	1.80
ATL	1.63	1.41	1.06	1.12	1.82	1.65	0.60
DAL	1.94	1.41	1.12	1.29	1.65	2	0.80
TEN	1	1.41	1	1.18	1.35	2.06	1.20
BUF	0.63	1.29	0.81	0.94	1.29	1.88	0.80
GB	1.31	1.29	1.82	1.41	0.94	1.47	2
MIA	0.63	1.29	1.41	1.41	1.82	1.35	1.40
MIN	1.44	1.29	1.12	1.65	0.76	1.41	0.60
HOU	1	1.24	1.53	1.24	1.06	1.12	1.40
NO	0.94	1.24	0.65	1.12	1.59	2	2.40
PIT	1.19	1.24	0.88	1.12	1.06	1.35	1
CIN	1.69	1.18	0.75	1.12	1.12	1.18	0.80
SF	0.94	1.18	1	0.76	0.94	1.29	0.40
LV	1.31	1.12	1.41	1.35	1.47	1.88	1.60
LAR	1.06	1.12	1.12	1.24	1.41	1.76	1.60
NE	1.06	0.94	0.76	1.47	1.41	1.47	1.60
TB	0.88	0.94	1.65	1.06	0.82	1.71	1.40
KC	1	0.88	0.71	1.12	1	1.88	1.75
SEA	0.88	0.65	1.24	0.94	1.12	0.71	1.20

Fourth down att since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Broncos (1.56), 2019 Giants (1.94), 2020 Eagles (2.19), 2021 Lions (2.41).

The best season on record is Lions 2021 at 2.41; the worst Chargers 2018 at 0.50.

The league average has risen from 1.04 in 2018 to 1.46 in 2021.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2021.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_att
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.