What Fourth down att is

Fourth downs the offense went for, instead of punting or kicking. Increasingly a coaching philosophy as much as a game situation — aggressive staffs attempt many, conservative ones few.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2018 the Broncos led at 1.56; the league average was 1.04.

League snapshot — 2018

League leader

DEN · 1.56

League average

1.04

Best to worst

1.06

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	DEN	1.56	16
2	PHI	1.44	16
3	BAL	1.38	16
4	CLE	1.31	16
5	DAL	1.31	16
6	MIN	1.31	16
7	NYJ	1.31	16
8	GB	1.25	16
9	NYG	1.25	16
10	ATL	1.19	16
11	CAR	1.19	16
12	DET	1.13	16
13	WAS	1.13	16
14	BUF	1.06	16
15	CIN	1.06	16
16	JAX	1.06	16
17	ARI	1	16
18	LV	1	16
19	NO	1	16
20	CHI	0.94	16
21	KC	0.94	16
22	LAR	0.94	16
23	IND	0.88	16
24	NE	0.88	16
25	PIT	0.88	16
26	SEA	0.88	16
27	MIA	0.81	16
28	TB	0.81	16
29	HOU	0.75	16
30	TEN	0.75	16
31	SF	0.56	16
32	LAC	0.50	16

At a glance — 2018

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DEN · 1.56

League laggard

LAC · 0.50

League average

1.04

Spread (max − min)

1.06

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DEN	1.56	0.52	100%
2	PHI	1.44	0.39	96.8%
3	BAL	1.38	0.33	93.5%
4	CLE	1.31	0.27	90.3%
5	DAL	1.31	0.27	87.1%
6	MIN	1.31	0.27	83.9%
7	NYJ	1.31	0.27	80.6%
8	GB	1.25	0.21	77.4%
9	NYG	1.25	0.21	74.2%
10	ATL	1.19	0.14	71%
11	CAR	1.19	0.14	67.7%
12	DET	1.13	0.08	64.5%
13	WAS	1.13	0.08	61.3%
14	BUF	1.06	0.02	58.1%
15	CIN	1.06	0.02	54.8%
16	JAX	1.06	0.02	51.6%
17	ARI	1	-0.04	48.4%
18	LV	1	-0.04	45.2%
19	NO	1	-0.04	41.9%
20	CHI	0.94	-0.11	38.7%
21	KC	0.94	-0.11	35.5%
22	LAR	0.94	-0.11	32.3%
23	IND	0.88	-0.17	29%
24	NE	0.88	-0.17	25.8%
25	PIT	0.88	-0.17	22.6%
26	SEA	0.88	-0.17	19.4%
27	MIA	0.81	-0.23	16.1%
28	TB	0.81	-0.23	12.9%
29	HOU	0.75	-0.29	9.7%
30	TEN	0.75	-0.29	6.5%
31	SF	0.56	-0.48	3.2%
32	LAC	0.50	-0.54	0%

Does Fourth down att matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 751–827–37 ATS (47.6%) across 2020–2025, #289 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (137–127, 51.9%); its worst 2024 (114–149, 43.3%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	120–134–2	47.2%
2021	272	124–146–2	45.9%
2022	271	137–127–7	51.9%
2023	272	128–130–14	49.6%
2024	272	114–149–9	43.3%
2025	272	128–141–3	47.6%

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

DET · 2.02

Multi-year laggard

SF · 0.93

Biggest improver

NO · +0.24/yr

Biggest decliner

JAX · −0.10/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	DET	2.02	+0.05	1.25	2.41	2.18	2.35	1.94	1.82	2.20
2	CAR	1.97	+0.07	1.69	2	1.24	2.82	1.76	2.29	2
3	CHI	1.96	+0.13	1.75	2.12	1.41	1.53	2.24	1.71	3
4	CLE	1.92	+0.01	1.50	1.71	2.47	1.88	2.59	1.71	1.60
5	IND	1.73	+0.06	1.56	1.71	1.53	1.88	1.65	1.59	2.20
6	NYG	1.69	+0.01	1.38	1.76	1.24	2.18	2.18	2.29	0.80
7	ARI	1.68	−0.07	1.56	1.71	2.41	2	1.06	1.65	1.40
8	PHI	1.66	−0.07	2.19	1.47	1.88	1.53	1.59	1.18	1.80
9	LAC	1.54	−0.08	1.56	2	1.65	1.88	0.94	1.18	1.60
10	NYJ	1.54	+0.01	1.13	1.71	1.65	1.71	1.41	2.41	0.80
11	JAX	1.54	−0.10	1.63	1.82	1.59	1.71	1.53	1.71	0.80
12	WAS	1.50	+0.00	1.13	1.88	1.47	1.71	1.35	1.53	1.40
13	GB	1.46	+0.05	1.31	1.29	1.82	1.41	0.94	1.47	2
14	DAL	1.46	−0.06	1.94	1.41	1.12	1.29	1.65	2	0.80
15	LV	1.45	+0.09	1.31	1.12	1.41	1.35	1.47	1.88	1.60
16	NO	1.42	+0.24	0.94	1.24	0.65	1.12	1.59	2	2.40
17	MIA	1.33	+0.10	0.63	1.29	1.41	1.41	1.82	1.35	1.40
18	LAR	1.33	+0.11	1.06	1.12	1.12	1.24	1.41	1.76	1.60
19	ATL	1.33	−0.07	1.63	1.41	1.06	1.12	1.82	1.65	0.60
20	TEN	1.31	+0.08	1	1.41	1	1.18	1.35	2.06	1.20
21	NE	1.25	+0.12	1.06	0.94	0.76	1.47	1.41	1.47	1.60
22	HOU	1.23	+0.02	1	1.24	1.53	1.24	1.06	1.12	1.40
23	TB	1.21	+0.08	0.88	0.94	1.65	1.06	0.82	1.71	1.40
24	KC	1.19	+0.16	1	0.88	0.71	1.12	1	1.88	1.75
25	MIN	1.18	−0.09	1.44	1.29	1.12	1.65	0.76	1.41	0.60
26	DEN	1.17	−0.08	0.94	1.65	1.41	1.18	1.24	1.18	0.60
27	BAL	1.12	−0.06	1.19	1.59	1.18	0.76	0.88	1.47	0.80
28	PIT	1.12	−0.01	1.19	1.24	0.88	1.12	1.06	1.35	1
29	CIN	1.12	−0.08	1.69	1.18	0.75	1.12	1.12	1.18	0.80
30	BUF	1.09	+0.08	0.63	1.29	0.81	0.94	1.29	1.88	0.80
31	SEA	0.96	+0.03	0.88	0.65	1.24	0.94	1.12	0.71	1.20
32	SF	0.93	−0.05	0.94	1.18	1	0.76	0.94	1.29	0.40

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CHI	1.75	2.12	1.41	1.53	2.24	1.71	3
NO	0.94	1.24	0.65	1.12	1.59	2	2.40
DET	1.25	2.41	2.18	2.35	1.94	1.82	2.20
IND	1.56	1.71	1.53	1.88	1.65	1.59	2.20
CAR	1.69	2	1.24	2.82	1.76	2.29	2
GB	1.31	1.29	1.82	1.41	0.94	1.47	2
PHI	2.19	1.47	1.88	1.53	1.59	1.18	1.80
KC	1	0.88	0.71	1.12	1	1.88	1.75
CLE	1.50	1.71	2.47	1.88	2.59	1.71	1.60
LV	1.31	1.12	1.41	1.35	1.47	1.88	1.60
LAC	1.56	2	1.65	1.88	0.94	1.18	1.60
LAR	1.06	1.12	1.12	1.24	1.41	1.76	1.60
NE	1.06	0.94	0.76	1.47	1.41	1.47	1.60
ARI	1.56	1.71	2.41	2	1.06	1.65	1.40
HOU	1	1.24	1.53	1.24	1.06	1.12	1.40
MIA	0.63	1.29	1.41	1.41	1.82	1.35	1.40
TB	0.88	0.94	1.65	1.06	0.82	1.71	1.40
WAS	1.13	1.88	1.47	1.71	1.35	1.53	1.40
SEA	0.88	0.65	1.24	0.94	1.12	0.71	1.20
TEN	1	1.41	1	1.18	1.35	2.06	1.20
PIT	1.19	1.24	0.88	1.12	1.06	1.35	1
BAL	1.19	1.59	1.18	0.76	0.88	1.47	0.80
BUF	0.63	1.29	0.81	0.94	1.29	1.88	0.80
CIN	1.69	1.18	0.75	1.12	1.12	1.18	0.80
DAL	1.94	1.41	1.12	1.29	1.65	2	0.80
JAX	1.63	1.82	1.59	1.71	1.53	1.71	0.80
NYG	1.38	1.76	1.24	2.18	2.18	2.29	0.80
NYJ	1.13	1.71	1.65	1.71	1.41	2.41	0.80
ATL	1.63	1.41	1.06	1.12	1.82	1.65	0.60
DEN	0.94	1.65	1.41	1.18	1.24	1.18	0.60
MIN	1.44	1.29	1.12	1.65	0.76	1.41	0.60
SF	0.94	1.18	1	0.76	0.94	1.29	0.40

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.

About this stat

Stat ID: off_team_conversions_fourth_down_att
Side: offensive
Family: Conversions
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.