What Third down pct (Off − Def) is

Third-down conversion rate minus the rate allowed. Where drives live or die, on both sides of the ball.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2023 the Cowboys led at 12.97; the league average was 0.15.

League snapshot — 2023

League leader

DAL · 12.97

League average

0.15

Best to worst

24.20

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	DAL	12.97	17
2	BUF	11.95	17
3	SF	6.92	17
4	KC	6.69	17
5	GB	5.96	17
6	ATL	5.47	17
7	DET	5.36	17
8	BAL	4.99	17
9	LAR	4.37	17
10	NO	3.74	17
11	MIA	3.50	17
12	DEN	3.16	17
13	CLE	3.01	17
14	TB	1.52	17
15	PHI	1.42	17
16	HOU	1.36	17
17	JAX	1.34	17
18	IND	-1.29	17
19	LAC	-1.96	17
20	MIN	-2.28	17
21	PIT	-2.54	17
22	CIN	-3.19	17
23	CHI	-3.24	17
24	TEN	-4.03	17
25	LV	-5.39	17
26	WAS	-5.83	17
27	NE	-6.71	17
28	CAR	-6.90	17
29	NYG	-7.02	17
30	ARI	-7.86	17
31	SEA	-9.43	17
32	NYJ	-11.23	17

At a glance — 2023

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DAL · 12.97

League laggard

NYJ · -11.23

League average

0.15

Spread (max − min)

24.20

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DAL	12.97	12.82	100%
2	BUF	11.95	11.80	96.8%
3	SF	6.92	6.77	93.5%
4	KC	6.69	6.54	90.3%
5	GB	5.96	5.81	87.1%
6	ATL	5.47	5.32	83.9%
7	DET	5.36	5.21	80.6%
8	BAL	4.99	4.84	77.4%
9	LAR	4.37	4.21	74.2%
10	NO	3.74	3.59	71%
11	MIA	3.50	3.35	67.7%
12	DEN	3.16	3.00	64.5%
13	CLE	3.01	2.86	61.3%
14	TB	1.52	1.37	58.1%
15	PHI	1.42	1.27	54.8%
16	HOU	1.36	1.21	51.6%
17	JAX	1.34	1.19	48.4%
18	IND	-1.29	-1.44	45.2%
19	LAC	-1.96	-2.11	41.9%
20	MIN	-2.28	-2.43	38.7%
21	PIT	-2.54	-2.69	35.5%
22	CIN	-3.19	-3.34	32.3%
23	CHI	-3.24	-3.40	29%
24	TEN	-4.03	-4.18	25.8%
25	LV	-5.39	-5.54	22.6%
26	WAS	-5.83	-5.98	19.4%
27	NE	-6.71	-6.86	16.1%
28	CAR	-6.90	-7.05	12.9%
29	NYG	-7.02	-7.17	9.7%
30	ARI	-7.86	-8.01	6.5%
31	SEA	-9.43	-9.58	3.2%
32	NYJ	-11.23	-11.38	0%

Does Third down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 903–675–37 ATS (57.2%) across 2020–2025, #24 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (160–104, 60.6%); its worst 2023 (138–120, 53.5%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	152–102–2	59.8%
2021	272	145–125–2	53.7%
2022	271	160–104–7	60.6%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	159–104–9	60.5%
2025	272	149–120–3	55.4%

Third down pct (Off − Def) in 2023 vs 2022

Cowboys lead at 12.97 — they ranked #4 last year. Jets are last at -11.23 — #21 last year.

The league average is 0.15, up 0.08 from 0.07 last year.

Biggest riser: Lions, #27 → #7. Biggest faller: Bengals, #3 → #22.

Spread between first and last: 24.20; 21 teams are within 5.94 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2023 vs 2022

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

HOU · +11.32

Biggest faller

CIN · −10.65

Most consistent

ARI · −0.28

League trend 2023 vs 2022

▲ 0.08

Rank	Team	2023	2022	Δ
1	HOU	1.36	-9.96	+11.32
2	DET	5.36	-5.11	+10.47
3	ATL	5.47	-4.06	+9.52
4	MIA	3.50	-5.19	+8.69
5	DEN	3.16	-4.68	+7.84
6	LAR	4.37	-1.63	+5.99
7	DAL	12.97	7.39	+5.58
8	CLE	3.01	-1.97	+4.98
9	CHI	-3.24	-7.35	+4.11
10	GB	5.96	2.18	+3.78
11	NO	3.74	0.06	+3.68
12	IND	-1.29	-4.34	+3.05
13	CAR	-6.90	-9.67	+2.77
14	JAX	1.34	-1.32	+2.66
15	SF	6.92	4.31	+2.62
16	TB	1.52	0.14	+1.39
17	ARI	-7.86	-7.57	−0.28
18	BUF	11.95	13.82	−1.87
19	BAL	4.99	7.04	−2.06
20	NE	-6.71	-4.57	−2.14
21	KC	6.69	9.14	−2.45
22	LV	-5.39	-2.12	−3.27
23	MIN	-2.28	2.26	−4.54
24	SEA	-9.43	-4.86	−4.57
25	PHI	1.42	7.27	−5.85
26	PIT	-2.54	4.26	−6.80
27	TEN	-4.03	2.95	−6.98
28	NYJ	-11.23	-3.70	−7.53
29	LAC	-1.96	6.29	−8.25
30	WAS	-5.83	3.27	−9.11
31	NYG	-7.02	2.51	−9.53
32	CIN	-3.19	7.45	−10.65

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.65

Multi-year laggard

CAR · -8.67

Biggest improver

CHI · +2.94/yr

Biggest decliner

GB · −2.73/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.65	−1.60	11.52	16.71	13.82	11.95	-0.05	3.98	9.66
2	KC	5.95	−1.67	8.06	12.29	9.14	6.69	5.61	-6.18	6.01
3	BAL	5.50	−1.52	14.54	1.30	7.04	4.99	9.03	3.14	-1.54
4	TB	5.35	−0.02	5.79	9.01	0.14	1.52	12.78	2.35	5.83
5	SF	5.06	+1.27	3.76	0.28	4.31	6.92	-0.40	9.45	11.08
6	LAR	3.75	+0.50	8.17	2.41	-1.63	4.37	-3.42	3.98	12.39
7	LAC	3.08	+1.66	0.04	-4.57	6.29	-1.96	5.31	10.82	5.62
8	MIN	3.06	+1.65	0.45	1.00	2.26	-2.28	5.26	-2.24	16.98
9	DAL	2.15	−0.94	-6.92	9.81	7.39	12.97	0.06	-4.57	-3.70
10	PIT	1.94	−0.73	5.08	2.52	4.26	-2.54	4.89	-1.21	0.57
11	PHI	1.52	−0.43	-1.98	1.72	7.27	1.42	8.61	-3.43	-2.96
12	GB	1.25	−2.73	10.00	1.14	2.18	5.96	1.25	7.99	-19.76
13	CIN	0.87	+1.41	-7.39	-1.40	7.45	-3.19	4.70	0.44	5.48
14	NO	0.53	−1.10	7.54	-1.32	0.06	3.74	-5.91	3.75	-4.17
15	NE	-0.47	+0.11	0.09	7.08	-4.57	-6.71	-7.68	4.90	3.60
16	CHI	-0.66	+2.94	-3.30	-5.83	-7.35	-3.24	-4.87	1.71	18.29
17	IND	-1.20	+0.76	-2.14	0.48	-4.34	-1.29	-7.34	-0.05	6.28
18	JAX	-1.26	+1.78	-4.10	-7.17	-1.32	1.34	-7.14	-0.27	9.82
19	DEN	-1.51	+0.27	-1.78	-6.24	-4.68	3.16	1.55	8.92	-11.46
20	ARI	-1.78	−0.83	0.40	8.14	-7.57	-7.86	-0.42	-2.37	-2.76
21	MIA	-1.78	−2.26	7.11	-0.29	-5.19	3.50	0.08	-5.16	-12.50
22	HOU	-1.85	+1.02	-3.03	-3.78	-9.96	1.36	2.35	0.72	-0.60
23	SEA	-2.06	+1.34	-5.81	-1.46	-4.86	-9.43	-0.14	9.53	-2.24
24	DET	-2.11	+0.90	-7.32	-10.80	-5.11	5.36	15.56	1.70	-14.14
25	ATL	-2.49	−0.04	2.58	-9.82	-4.06	5.47	-5.88	-5.95	0.24
26	TEN	-2.53	−1.19	-5.69	6.69	2.95	-4.03	-4.58	-9.60	-3.47
27	CLE	-2.61	−1.65	1.38	-0.29	-1.97	3.01	-6.86	-2.75	-10.78
28	NYG	-3.21	+0.70	-8.03	-3.50	2.51	-7.02	-5.31	0.36	-1.50
29	WAS	-3.24	−1.01	0.94	-10.05	3.27	-5.83	6.74	-4.21	-13.57
30	LV	-4.56	−0.52	-3.31	-2.74	-2.12	-5.39	-5.24	-12.42	-0.67
31	NYJ	-4.90	+2.06	-11.41	-8.24	-3.70	-11.23	0.85	-4.01	3.45
32	CAR	-8.67	−0.19	-10.81	-2.22	-9.67	-6.90	-14.89	-11.62	-4.59

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DAL	-6.92	9.81	7.39	12.97	0.06	-4.57	-3.70
BUF	11.52	16.71	13.82	11.95	-0.05	3.98	9.66
SF	3.76	0.28	4.31	6.92	-0.40	9.45	11.08
KC	8.06	12.29	9.14	6.69	5.61	-6.18	6.01
GB	10.00	1.14	2.18	5.96	1.25	7.99	-19.76
ATL	2.58	-9.82	-4.06	5.47	-5.88	-5.95	0.24
DET	-7.32	-10.80	-5.11	5.36	15.56	1.70	-14.14
BAL	14.54	1.30	7.04	4.99	9.03	3.14	-1.54
LAR	8.17	2.41	-1.63	4.37	-3.42	3.98	12.39
NO	7.54	-1.32	0.06	3.74	-5.91	3.75	-4.17
MIA	7.11	-0.29	-5.19	3.50	0.08	-5.16	-12.50
DEN	-1.78	-6.24	-4.68	3.16	1.55	8.92	-11.46
CLE	1.38	-0.29	-1.97	3.01	-6.86	-2.75	-10.78
TB	5.79	9.01	0.14	1.52	12.78	2.35	5.83
PHI	-1.98	1.72	7.27	1.42	8.61	-3.43	-2.96
HOU	-3.03	-3.78	-9.96	1.36	2.35	0.72	-0.60
JAX	-4.10	-7.17	-1.32	1.34	-7.14	-0.27	9.82
IND	-2.14	0.48	-4.34	-1.29	-7.34	-0.05	6.28
LAC	0.04	-4.57	6.29	-1.96	5.31	10.82	5.62
MIN	0.45	1.00	2.26	-2.28	5.26	-2.24	16.98
PIT	5.08	2.52	4.26	-2.54	4.89	-1.21	0.57
CIN	-7.39	-1.40	7.45	-3.19	4.70	0.44	5.48
CHI	-3.30	-5.83	-7.35	-3.24	-4.87	1.71	18.29
TEN	-5.69	6.69	2.95	-4.03	-4.58	-9.60	-3.47
LV	-3.31	-2.74	-2.12	-5.39	-5.24	-12.42	-0.67
WAS	0.94	-10.05	3.27	-5.83	6.74	-4.21	-13.57
NE	0.09	7.08	-4.57	-6.71	-7.68	4.90	3.60
CAR	-10.81	-2.22	-9.67	-6.90	-14.89	-11.62	-4.59
NYG	-8.03	-3.50	2.51	-7.02	-5.31	0.36	-1.50
ARI	0.40	8.14	-7.57	-7.86	-0.42	-2.37	-2.76
SEA	-5.81	-1.46	-4.86	-9.43	-0.14	9.53	-2.24
NYJ	-11.41	-8.24	-3.70	-11.23	0.85	-4.01	3.45

Third down pct (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Ravens (11.85), 2019 Patriots (14.44), 2020 Ravens (14.54), 2021 Bills (16.71), 2022 Bills (13.82), 2023 Cowboys (12.97).

Ravens have led this stat 2 of 6 seasons.

The best season on record is Bills 2021 at 16.71; the worst Commanders 2019 at -20.95.

The league average has risen from 0.03 in 2018 to 0.15 in 2023.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2023.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_third_down_pct
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.