NET: Third down pct (Off − Def)
P + N
About this stat ↓What Third down pct (Off − Def) is
Third-down conversion rate minus the rate allowed. Where drives live or die, on both sides of the ball.
Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.
In 2018 the Ravens led at 11.85; the league average was 0.03.
League snapshot — 2018
League leader
BAL · 11.85
League average
0.03
Best to worst
26.35
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 11.85 | 16 |
| 2 | IND | 8.77 | 16 |
| 3 | PIT | 7.49 | 16 |
| 4 | LAR | 7.00 | 16 |
| 5 | MIN | 6.74 | 16 |
| 6 | PHI | 6.05 | 16 |
| 7 | SEA | 5.91 | 16 |
| 8 | CHI | 5.52 | 16 |
| 9 | TB | 4.99 | 16 |
| 10 | NO | 4.96 | 16 |
| 11 | KC | 4.67 | 16 |
| 12 | TEN | 3.92 | 16 |
| 13 | JAX | 3.10 | 16 |
| 14 | NE | 2.33 | 16 |
| 15 | CAR | 1.97 | 16 |
| 16 | CLE | 0.52 | 16 |
| 17 | LAC | 0.43 | 16 |
| 18 | DET | -0.92 | 16 |
| 19 | NYJ | -1.27 | 16 |
| 20 | DAL | -1.63 | 16 |
| 21 | GB | -1.99 | 16 |
| 22 | SF | -2.81 | 16 |
| 23 | HOU | -3.12 | 16 |
| 24 | ATL | -3.42 | 16 |
| 25 | BUF | -4.17 | 16 |
| 26 | NYG | -5.27 | 16 |
| 27 | DEN | -5.38 | 16 |
| 28 | WAS | -8.72 | 16 |
| 29 | ARI | -9.13 | 16 |
| 30 | LV | -9.13 | 16 |
| 31 | CIN | -13.72 | 16 |
| 32 | MIA | -14.50 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
League leader
BAL · 11.85
League laggard
MIA · -14.50
League average
0.03
Spread (max − min)
26.35
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 11.85 | 11.82 | 100% |
| 2 | IND | 8.77 | 8.74 | 96.8% |
| 3 | PIT | 7.49 | 7.45 | 93.5% |
| 4 | LAR | 7.00 | 6.97 | 90.3% |
| 5 | MIN | 6.74 | 6.71 | 87.1% |
| 6 | PHI | 6.05 | 6.02 | 83.9% |
| 7 | SEA | 5.91 | 5.88 | 80.6% |
| 8 | CHI | 5.52 | 5.48 | 77.4% |
| 9 | TB | 4.99 | 4.96 | 74.2% |
| 10 | NO | 4.96 | 4.92 | 71% |
| 11 | KC | 4.67 | 4.64 | 67.7% |
| 12 | TEN | 3.92 | 3.89 | 64.5% |
| 13 | JAX | 3.10 | 3.06 | 61.3% |
| 14 | NE | 2.33 | 2.30 | 58.1% |
| 15 | CAR | 1.97 | 1.93 | 54.8% |
| 16 | CLE | 0.52 | 0.49 | 51.6% |
| 17 | LAC | 0.43 | 0.40 | 48.4% |
| 18 | DET | -0.92 | -0.95 | 45.2% |
| 19 | NYJ | -1.27 | -1.30 | 41.9% |
| 20 | DAL | -1.63 | -1.66 | 38.7% |
| 21 | GB | -1.99 | -2.02 | 35.5% |
| 22 | SF | -2.81 | -2.84 | 32.3% |
| 23 | HOU | -3.12 | -3.16 | 29% |
| 24 | ATL | -3.42 | -3.46 | 25.8% |
| 25 | BUF | -4.17 | -4.20 | 22.6% |
| 26 | NYG | -5.27 | -5.30 | 19.4% |
| 27 | DEN | -5.38 | -5.41 | 16.1% |
| 28 | WAS | -8.72 | -8.75 | 12.9% |
| 29 | ARI | -9.13 | -9.16 | 9.7% |
| 30 | LV | -9.13 | -9.16 | 6.5% |
| 31 | CIN | -13.72 | -13.75 | 3.2% |
| 32 | MIA | -14.50 | -14.53 | 0% |
Does Third down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 903–675–37 ATS (57.2%) across 2020–2025, #24 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2022 (160–104, 60.6%); its worst 2023 (138–120, 53.5%).
For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 152–102–2 | 59.8% |
| 2021 | 272 | 145–125–2 | 53.7% |
| 2022 | 271 | 160–104–7 | 60.6% |
| 2023 | 272 | 138–120–14 | 53.5% |
| 2024 | 272 | 159–104–9 | 60.5% |
| 2025 | 272 | 149–120–3 | 55.4% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year leader
BUF · 8.89
Multi-year laggard
CAR · -9.14
Biggest improver
CHI · +2.90/yr
Biggest decliner
KC · −2.28/yr
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 8.89 | −2.18 | 11.52 | 16.71 | 13.82 | 11.95 | -0.05 | 3.98 | 4.28 |
| 2 | BAL | 5.77 | −1.31 | 14.54 | 1.30 | 7.04 | 4.99 | 9.03 | 3.14 | 0.38 |
| 3 | TB | 5.55 | +0.14 | 5.79 | 9.01 | 0.14 | 1.52 | 12.78 | 2.35 | 7.29 |
| 4 | SF | 5.15 | +1.34 | 3.76 | 0.28 | 4.31 | 6.92 | -0.40 | 9.45 | 11.70 |
| 5 | KC | 5.13 | −2.28 | 8.06 | 12.29 | 9.14 | 6.69 | 5.61 | -6.18 | 0.27 |
| 6 | LAR | 3.76 | +0.50 | 8.17 | 2.41 | -1.63 | 4.37 | -3.42 | 3.98 | 12.41 |
| 7 | GB | 3.37 | −1.15 | 10.00 | 1.14 | 2.18 | 5.96 | 1.25 | 7.99 | -4.96 |
| 8 | LAC | 3.10 | +1.68 | 0.04 | -4.57 | 6.29 | -1.96 | 5.31 | 10.82 | 5.79 |
| 9 | PIT | 2.43 | −0.36 | 5.08 | 2.52 | 4.26 | -2.54 | 4.89 | -1.21 | 3.98 |
| 10 | DAL | 2.12 | −0.97 | -6.92 | 9.81 | 7.39 | 12.97 | 0.06 | -4.57 | -3.89 |
| 11 | MIN | 1.69 | +0.62 | 0.45 | 1.00 | 2.26 | -2.28 | 5.26 | -2.24 | 7.38 |
| 12 | PHI | 1.24 | −0.64 | -1.98 | 1.72 | 7.27 | 1.42 | 8.61 | -3.43 | -4.97 |
| 13 | CIN | 1.05 | +1.55 | -7.39 | -1.40 | 7.45 | -3.19 | 4.70 | 0.44 | 6.77 |
| 14 | NO | 0.19 | −1.36 | 7.54 | -1.32 | 0.06 | 3.74 | -5.91 | 3.75 | -6.57 |
| 15 | NE | -0.25 | +0.28 | 0.09 | 7.08 | -4.57 | -6.71 | -7.68 | 4.90 | 5.15 |
| 16 | SEA | -0.63 | +2.41 | -5.81 | -1.46 | -4.86 | -9.43 | -0.14 | 9.53 | 7.74 |
| 17 | CHI | -0.71 | +2.90 | -3.30 | -5.83 | -7.35 | -3.24 | -4.87 | 1.71 | 17.91 |
| 18 | JAX | -0.94 | +2.02 | -4.10 | -7.17 | -1.32 | 1.34 | -7.14 | -0.27 | 12.10 |
| 19 | IND | -1.12 | +0.82 | -2.14 | 0.48 | -4.34 | -1.29 | -7.34 | -0.05 | 6.85 |
| 20 | DET | -1.13 | +1.63 | -7.32 | -10.80 | -5.11 | 5.36 | 15.56 | 1.70 | -7.29 |
| 21 | MIA | -1.40 | −1.98 | 7.11 | -0.29 | -5.19 | 3.50 | 0.08 | -5.16 | -9.84 |
| 22 | DEN | -1.51 | +0.26 | -1.78 | -6.24 | -4.68 | 3.16 | 1.55 | 8.92 | -11.50 |
| 23 | ARI | -1.62 | −0.72 | 0.40 | 8.14 | -7.57 | -7.86 | -0.42 | -2.37 | -1.65 |
| 24 | CLE | -2.16 | −1.32 | 1.38 | -0.29 | -1.97 | 3.01 | -6.86 | -2.75 | -7.65 |
| 25 | HOU | -2.41 | +0.60 | -3.03 | -3.78 | -9.96 | 1.36 | 2.35 | 0.72 | -4.55 |
| 26 | NYG | -2.53 | +1.20 | -8.03 | -3.50 | 2.51 | -7.02 | -5.31 | 0.36 | 3.25 |
| 27 | WAS | -3.06 | −0.88 | 0.94 | -10.05 | 3.27 | -5.83 | 6.74 | -4.21 | -12.30 |
| 28 | TEN | -3.16 | −1.66 | -5.69 | 6.69 | 2.95 | -4.03 | -4.58 | -9.60 | -7.83 |
| 29 | ATL | -3.69 | −0.94 | 2.58 | -9.82 | -4.06 | 5.47 | -5.88 | -5.95 | -8.13 |
| 30 | LV | -4.54 | −0.50 | -3.31 | -2.74 | -2.12 | -5.39 | -5.24 | -12.42 | -0.52 |
| 31 | NYJ | -5.74 | +1.43 | -11.41 | -8.24 | -3.70 | -11.23 | 0.85 | -4.01 | -2.41 |
| 32 | CAR | -9.14 | −0.54 | -10.81 | -2.22 | -9.67 | -6.90 | -14.89 | -11.62 | -7.85 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | -3.30 | -5.83 | -7.35 | -3.24 | -4.87 | 1.71 | 17.91 |
| LAR | 8.17 | 2.41 | -1.63 | 4.37 | -3.42 | 3.98 | 12.41 |
| JAX | -4.10 | -7.17 | -1.32 | 1.34 | -7.14 | -0.27 | 12.10 |
| SF | 3.76 | 0.28 | 4.31 | 6.92 | -0.40 | 9.45 | 11.70 |
| SEA | -5.81 | -1.46 | -4.86 | -9.43 | -0.14 | 9.53 | 7.74 |
| MIN | 0.45 | 1.00 | 2.26 | -2.28 | 5.26 | -2.24 | 7.38 |
| TB | 5.79 | 9.01 | 0.14 | 1.52 | 12.78 | 2.35 | 7.29 |
| IND | -2.14 | 0.48 | -4.34 | -1.29 | -7.34 | -0.05 | 6.85 |
| CIN | -7.39 | -1.40 | 7.45 | -3.19 | 4.70 | 0.44 | 6.77 |
| LAC | 0.04 | -4.57 | 6.29 | -1.96 | 5.31 | 10.82 | 5.79 |
| NE | 0.09 | 7.08 | -4.57 | -6.71 | -7.68 | 4.90 | 5.15 |
| BUF | 11.52 | 16.71 | 13.82 | 11.95 | -0.05 | 3.98 | 4.28 |
| PIT | 5.08 | 2.52 | 4.26 | -2.54 | 4.89 | -1.21 | 3.98 |
| NYG | -8.03 | -3.50 | 2.51 | -7.02 | -5.31 | 0.36 | 3.25 |
| BAL | 14.54 | 1.30 | 7.04 | 4.99 | 9.03 | 3.14 | 0.38 |
| KC | 8.06 | 12.29 | 9.14 | 6.69 | 5.61 | -6.18 | 0.27 |
| LV | -3.31 | -2.74 | -2.12 | -5.39 | -5.24 | -12.42 | -0.52 |
| ARI | 0.40 | 8.14 | -7.57 | -7.86 | -0.42 | -2.37 | -1.65 |
| NYJ | -11.41 | -8.24 | -3.70 | -11.23 | 0.85 | -4.01 | -2.41 |
| DAL | -6.92 | 9.81 | 7.39 | 12.97 | 0.06 | -4.57 | -3.89 |
| HOU | -3.03 | -3.78 | -9.96 | 1.36 | 2.35 | 0.72 | -4.55 |
| GB | 10.00 | 1.14 | 2.18 | 5.96 | 1.25 | 7.99 | -4.96 |
| PHI | -1.98 | 1.72 | 7.27 | 1.42 | 8.61 | -3.43 | -4.97 |
| NO | 7.54 | -1.32 | 0.06 | 3.74 | -5.91 | 3.75 | -6.57 |
| DET | -7.32 | -10.80 | -5.11 | 5.36 | 15.56 | 1.70 | -7.29 |
| CLE | 1.38 | -0.29 | -1.97 | 3.01 | -6.86 | -2.75 | -7.65 |
| TEN | -5.69 | 6.69 | 2.95 | -4.03 | -4.58 | -9.60 | -7.83 |
| CAR | -10.81 | -2.22 | -9.67 | -6.90 | -14.89 | -11.62 | -7.85 |
| ATL | 2.58 | -9.82 | -4.06 | 5.47 | -5.88 | -5.95 | -8.13 |
| MIA | 7.11 | -0.29 | -5.19 | 3.50 | 0.08 | -5.16 | -9.84 |
| DEN | -1.78 | -6.24 | -4.68 | 3.16 | 1.55 | 8.92 | -11.50 |
| WAS | 0.94 | -10.05 | 3.27 | -5.83 | 6.74 | -4.21 | -12.30 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- net_third_down_pct
- Side
- net
- Family
- NET (Off − Def)
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- rate
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.