What Third down pct (Off − Def) is

Third-down conversion rate minus the rate allowed. Where drives live or die, on both sides of the ball.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2019 the Patriots led at 14.44; the league average was 0.07.

League snapshot — 2019

League leader

NE · 14.44

League average

0.07

Best to worst

35.39

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	NE	14.44	16
2	DAL	12.62	16
3	SF	11.76	16
4	PHI	10.98	16
5	BAL	10.71	16
6	KC	9.29	16
7	TB	8.05	16
8	NO	6.55	16
9	MIN	4.36	16
10	ATL	2.89	16
11	TEN	2.22	16
12	SEA	1.11	16
13	LV	0.70	16
14	LAR	0.29	16
15	GB	0.20	16
16	CHI	-0.28	16
17	BUF	-0.34	16
18	IND	-0.61	16
19	LAC	-1.60	16
20	PIT	-1.67	16
21	NYG	-1.80	16
22	DET	-3.88	16
23	CLE	-4.19	16
24	DEN	-5.10	16
25	HOU	-5.48	16
26	MIA	-6.83	16
27	NYJ	-7.09	16
28	CIN	-7.28	16
29	JAX	-7.31	16
30	CAR	-8.33	16
31	ARI	-11.19	16
32	WAS	-20.95	16

At a glance — 2019

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

NE · 14.44

League laggard

WAS · -20.95

League average

0.07

Spread (max − min)

35.39

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	NE	14.44	14.37	100%
2	DAL	12.62	12.55	96.8%
3	SF	11.76	11.69	93.5%
4	PHI	10.98	10.91	90.3%
5	BAL	10.71	10.64	87.1%
6	KC	9.29	9.22	83.9%
7	TB	8.05	7.98	80.6%
8	NO	6.55	6.48	77.4%
9	MIN	4.36	4.29	74.2%
10	ATL	2.89	2.82	71%
11	TEN	2.22	2.15	67.7%
12	SEA	1.11	1.04	64.5%
13	LV	0.70	0.63	61.3%
14	LAR	0.29	0.22	58.1%
15	GB	0.20	0.13	54.8%
16	CHI	-0.28	-0.35	51.6%
17	BUF	-0.34	-0.41	48.4%
18	IND	-0.61	-0.68	45.2%
19	LAC	-1.60	-1.67	41.9%
20	PIT	-1.67	-1.74	38.7%
21	NYG	-1.80	-1.87	35.5%
22	DET	-3.88	-3.95	32.3%
23	CLE	-4.19	-4.26	29%
24	DEN	-5.10	-5.17	25.8%
25	HOU	-5.48	-5.55	22.6%
26	MIA	-6.83	-6.90	19.4%
27	NYJ	-7.09	-7.16	16.1%
28	CIN	-7.28	-7.35	12.9%
29	JAX	-7.31	-7.38	9.7%
30	CAR	-8.33	-8.40	6.5%
31	ARI	-11.19	-11.26	3.2%
32	WAS	-20.95	-21.02	0%

Does Third down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 903–675–37 ATS (57.2%) across 2020–2025, #24 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (160–104, 60.6%); its worst 2023 (138–120, 53.5%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	152–102–2	59.8%
2021	272	145–125–2	53.7%
2022	271	160–104–7	60.6%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	159–104–9	60.5%
2025	272	149–120–3	55.4%

Third down pct (Off − Def) in 2019 vs 2018

Patriots lead at 14.44 — they ranked #14 last year. Commanders are last at -20.95 — #28 last year.

The league average is 0.07, up 0.04 from 0.03 last year.

Biggest riser: 49ers, #22 → #3. Biggest faller: Steelers, #3 → #20.

Spread between first and last: 35.39; 22 teams are within 7.71 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2019 vs 2018

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

SF · +14.57

Biggest faller

WAS · −12.23

Most consistent

DEN · +0.28

League trend 2019 vs 2018

▲ 0.04

Rank	Team	2019	2018	Δ
1	SF	11.76	-2.81	+14.57
2	DAL	12.62	-1.63	+14.24
3	NE	14.44	2.33	+12.11
4	LV	0.70	-9.13	+9.83
5	MIA	-6.83	-14.50	+7.67
6	CIN	-7.28	-13.72	+6.44
7	ATL	2.89	-3.42	+6.31
8	PHI	10.98	6.05	+4.93
9	KC	9.29	4.67	+4.61
10	BUF	-0.34	-4.17	+3.83
11	NYG	-1.80	-5.27	+3.47
12	TB	8.05	4.99	+3.06
13	GB	0.20	-1.99	+2.19
14	NO	6.55	4.96	+1.59
15	DEN	-5.10	-5.38	+0.28
16	BAL	10.71	11.85	−1.14
17	TEN	2.22	3.92	−1.70
18	LAC	-1.60	0.43	−2.03
19	ARI	-11.19	-9.13	−2.06
20	HOU	-5.48	-3.12	−2.36
21	MIN	4.36	6.74	−2.37
22	DET	-3.88	-0.92	−2.96
23	CLE	-4.19	0.52	−4.71
24	SEA	1.11	5.91	−4.80
25	CHI	-0.28	5.52	−5.79
26	NYJ	-7.09	-1.27	−5.82
27	LAR	0.29	7.00	−6.71
28	PIT	-1.67	7.49	−9.15
29	IND	-0.61	8.77	−9.38
30	CAR	-8.33	1.97	−10.29
31	JAX	-7.31	3.10	−10.40
32	WAS	-20.95	-8.72	−12.23

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.65

Multi-year laggard

CAR · -8.67

Biggest improver

CHI · +2.94/yr

Biggest decliner

GB · −2.73/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.65	−1.60	11.52	16.71	13.82	11.95	-0.05	3.98	9.66
2	KC	5.95	−1.67	8.06	12.29	9.14	6.69	5.61	-6.18	6.01
3	BAL	5.50	−1.52	14.54	1.30	7.04	4.99	9.03	3.14	-1.54
4	TB	5.35	−0.02	5.79	9.01	0.14	1.52	12.78	2.35	5.83
5	SF	5.06	+1.27	3.76	0.28	4.31	6.92	-0.40	9.45	11.08
6	LAR	3.75	+0.50	8.17	2.41	-1.63	4.37	-3.42	3.98	12.39
7	LAC	3.08	+1.66	0.04	-4.57	6.29	-1.96	5.31	10.82	5.62
8	MIN	3.06	+1.65	0.45	1.00	2.26	-2.28	5.26	-2.24	16.98
9	DAL	2.15	−0.94	-6.92	9.81	7.39	12.97	0.06	-4.57	-3.70
10	PIT	1.94	−0.73	5.08	2.52	4.26	-2.54	4.89	-1.21	0.57
11	PHI	1.52	−0.43	-1.98	1.72	7.27	1.42	8.61	-3.43	-2.96
12	GB	1.25	−2.73	10.00	1.14	2.18	5.96	1.25	7.99	-19.76
13	CIN	0.87	+1.41	-7.39	-1.40	7.45	-3.19	4.70	0.44	5.48
14	NO	0.53	−1.10	7.54	-1.32	0.06	3.74	-5.91	3.75	-4.17
15	NE	-0.47	+0.11	0.09	7.08	-4.57	-6.71	-7.68	4.90	3.60
16	CHI	-0.66	+2.94	-3.30	-5.83	-7.35	-3.24	-4.87	1.71	18.29
17	IND	-1.20	+0.76	-2.14	0.48	-4.34	-1.29	-7.34	-0.05	6.28
18	JAX	-1.26	+1.78	-4.10	-7.17	-1.32	1.34	-7.14	-0.27	9.82
19	DEN	-1.51	+0.27	-1.78	-6.24	-4.68	3.16	1.55	8.92	-11.46
20	ARI	-1.78	−0.83	0.40	8.14	-7.57	-7.86	-0.42	-2.37	-2.76
21	MIA	-1.78	−2.26	7.11	-0.29	-5.19	3.50	0.08	-5.16	-12.50
22	HOU	-1.85	+1.02	-3.03	-3.78	-9.96	1.36	2.35	0.72	-0.60
23	SEA	-2.06	+1.34	-5.81	-1.46	-4.86	-9.43	-0.14	9.53	-2.24
24	DET	-2.11	+0.90	-7.32	-10.80	-5.11	5.36	15.56	1.70	-14.14
25	ATL	-2.49	−0.04	2.58	-9.82	-4.06	5.47	-5.88	-5.95	0.24
26	TEN	-2.53	−1.19	-5.69	6.69	2.95	-4.03	-4.58	-9.60	-3.47
27	CLE	-2.61	−1.65	1.38	-0.29	-1.97	3.01	-6.86	-2.75	-10.78
28	NYG	-3.21	+0.70	-8.03	-3.50	2.51	-7.02	-5.31	0.36	-1.50
29	WAS	-3.24	−1.01	0.94	-10.05	3.27	-5.83	6.74	-4.21	-13.57
30	LV	-4.56	−0.52	-3.31	-2.74	-2.12	-5.39	-5.24	-12.42	-0.67
31	NYJ	-4.90	+2.06	-11.41	-8.24	-3.70	-11.23	0.85	-4.01	3.45
32	CAR	-8.67	−0.19	-10.81	-2.22	-9.67	-6.90	-14.89	-11.62	-4.59

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
CHI	-3.30	-5.83	-7.35	-3.24	-4.87	1.71	18.29
MIN	0.45	1.00	2.26	-2.28	5.26	-2.24	16.98
LAR	8.17	2.41	-1.63	4.37	-3.42	3.98	12.39
SF	3.76	0.28	4.31	6.92	-0.40	9.45	11.08
JAX	-4.10	-7.17	-1.32	1.34	-7.14	-0.27	9.82
BUF	11.52	16.71	13.82	11.95	-0.05	3.98	9.66
IND	-2.14	0.48	-4.34	-1.29	-7.34	-0.05	6.28
KC	8.06	12.29	9.14	6.69	5.61	-6.18	6.01
TB	5.79	9.01	0.14	1.52	12.78	2.35	5.83
LAC	0.04	-4.57	6.29	-1.96	5.31	10.82	5.62
CIN	-7.39	-1.40	7.45	-3.19	4.70	0.44	5.48
NE	0.09	7.08	-4.57	-6.71	-7.68	4.90	3.60
NYJ	-11.41	-8.24	-3.70	-11.23	0.85	-4.01	3.45
PIT	5.08	2.52	4.26	-2.54	4.89	-1.21	0.57
ATL	2.58	-9.82	-4.06	5.47	-5.88	-5.95	0.24
HOU	-3.03	-3.78	-9.96	1.36	2.35	0.72	-0.60
LV	-3.31	-2.74	-2.12	-5.39	-5.24	-12.42	-0.67
NYG	-8.03	-3.50	2.51	-7.02	-5.31	0.36	-1.50
BAL	14.54	1.30	7.04	4.99	9.03	3.14	-1.54
SEA	-5.81	-1.46	-4.86	-9.43	-0.14	9.53	-2.24
ARI	0.40	8.14	-7.57	-7.86	-0.42	-2.37	-2.76
PHI	-1.98	1.72	7.27	1.42	8.61	-3.43	-2.96
TEN	-5.69	6.69	2.95	-4.03	-4.58	-9.60	-3.47
DAL	-6.92	9.81	7.39	12.97	0.06	-4.57	-3.70
NO	7.54	-1.32	0.06	3.74	-5.91	3.75	-4.17
CAR	-10.81	-2.22	-9.67	-6.90	-14.89	-11.62	-4.59
CLE	1.38	-0.29	-1.97	3.01	-6.86	-2.75	-10.78
DEN	-1.78	-6.24	-4.68	3.16	1.55	8.92	-11.46
MIA	7.11	-0.29	-5.19	3.50	0.08	-5.16	-12.50
WAS	0.94	-10.05	3.27	-5.83	6.74	-4.21	-13.57
DET	-7.32	-10.80	-5.11	5.36	15.56	1.70	-14.14
GB	10.00	1.14	2.18	5.96	1.25	7.99	-19.76

Third down pct (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Ravens (11.85), 2019 Patriots (14.44).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 14.44; the worst Commanders 2019 at -20.95.

The league average has risen from 0.03 in 2018 to 0.07 in 2019.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2019.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_third_down_pct
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.