What Third down pct (Off − Def) is

Third-down conversion rate minus the rate allowed. Where drives live or die, on both sides of the ball.

Higher is better. It is a rate, so a team's number does not grow with games played. Source: P + N.

In 2025 the Chargers led at 10.82; the league average was -0.07.

League snapshot — 2025

League leader

LAC · 10.82

League average

-0.07

Best to worst

23.25

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	LAC	10.82	17
2	SEA	9.53	17
3	SF	9.45	17
4	DEN	8.92	17
5	GB	7.99	17
6	NE	4.90	17
7	LAR	3.98	17
8	BUF	3.98	17
9	NO	3.75	17
10	BAL	3.14	17
11	TB	2.35	17
12	CHI	1.71	17
13	DET	1.70	17
14	HOU	0.72	17
15	CIN	0.44	17
16	NYG	0.36	17
17	IND	-0.05	17
18	JAX	-0.27	17
19	PIT	-1.21	17
20	MIN	-2.24	17
21	ARI	-2.37	17
22	CLE	-2.75	17
23	PHI	-3.43	17
24	NYJ	-4.01	17
25	WAS	-4.21	17
26	DAL	-4.57	17
27	MIA	-5.16	17
28	ATL	-5.95	17
29	KC	-6.18	17
30	TEN	-9.60	17
31	CAR	-11.62	17
32	LV	-12.42	17

At a glance — 2025

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

LAC · 10.82

League laggard

LV · -12.42

League average

-0.07

Spread (max − min)

23.25

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	LAC	10.82	10.90	100%
2	SEA	9.53	9.60	96.8%
3	SF	9.45	9.52	93.5%
4	DEN	8.92	8.99	90.3%
5	GB	7.99	8.06	87.1%
6	NE	4.90	4.97	83.9%
7	LAR	3.98	4.05	80.6%
8	BUF	3.98	4.05	77.4%
9	NO	3.75	3.83	74.2%
10	BAL	3.14	3.21	71%
11	TB	2.35	2.42	67.7%
12	CHI	1.71	1.78	64.5%
13	DET	1.70	1.78	61.3%
14	HOU	0.72	0.79	58.1%
15	CIN	0.44	0.51	54.8%
16	NYG	0.36	0.43	51.6%
17	IND	-0.05	0.02	48.4%
18	JAX	-0.27	-0.20	45.2%
19	PIT	-1.21	-1.13	41.9%
20	MIN	-2.24	-2.17	38.7%
21	ARI	-2.37	-2.29	35.5%
22	CLE	-2.75	-2.68	32.3%
23	PHI	-3.43	-3.36	29%
24	NYJ	-4.01	-3.94	25.8%
25	WAS	-4.21	-4.14	22.6%
26	DAL	-4.57	-4.50	19.4%
27	MIA	-5.16	-5.09	16.1%
28	ATL	-5.95	-5.87	12.9%
29	KC	-6.18	-6.11	9.7%
30	TEN	-9.60	-9.53	6.5%
31	CAR	-11.62	-11.55	3.2%
32	LV	-12.42	-12.35	0%

Does Third down pct (Off − Def) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 903–675–37 ATS (57.2%) across 2020–2025, #24 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (160–104, 60.6%); its worst 2023 (138–120, 53.5%).

For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	152–102–2	59.8%
2021	272	145–125–2	53.7%
2022	271	160–104–7	60.6%
2023	272	138–120–14	53.5%
2024	272	159–104–9	60.5%
2025	272	149–120–3	55.4%

Third down pct (Off − Def) in 2025 vs 2024

Chargers lead at 10.82 — they ranked #7 last year. Raiders are last at -12.42 — #24 last year.

The league average is -0.07, down 0.21 from 0.14 last year.

Biggest riser: Patriots, #31 → #6. Biggest faller: Chiefs, #6 → #29.

Spread between first and last: 23.25; 22 teams are within 5.86 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2025 vs 2024

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

NE · +12.58

Biggest faller

DET · −13.85

Most consistent

ATL · −0.06

League trend 2025 vs 2024

▼ -0.21

Rank	Team	2025	2024	Δ
1	NE	4.90	-7.68	+12.58
2	SF	9.45	-0.40	+9.85
3	SEA	9.53	-0.14	+9.66
4	NO	3.75	-5.91	+9.66
5	LAR	3.98	-3.42	+7.40
6	DEN	8.92	1.55	+7.37
7	IND	-0.05	-7.34	+7.29
8	JAX	-0.27	-7.14	+6.87
9	GB	7.99	1.25	+6.74
10	CHI	1.71	-4.87	+6.58
11	NYG	0.36	-5.31	+5.67
12	LAC	10.82	5.31	+5.51
13	CLE	-2.75	-6.86	+4.11
14	BUF	3.98	-0.05	+4.03
15	CAR	-11.62	-14.89	+3.27
16	ATL	-5.95	-5.88	−0.06
17	HOU	0.72	2.35	−1.63
18	ARI	-2.37	-0.42	−1.94
19	CIN	0.44	4.70	−4.26
20	DAL	-4.57	0.06	−4.63
21	NYJ	-4.01	0.85	−4.86
22	TEN	-9.60	-4.58	−5.02
23	MIA	-5.16	0.08	−5.24
24	BAL	3.14	9.03	−5.89
25	PIT	-1.21	4.89	−6.09
26	LV	-12.42	-5.24	−7.18
27	MIN	-2.24	5.26	−7.50
28	TB	2.35	12.78	−10.43
29	WAS	-4.21	6.74	−10.95
30	KC	-6.18	5.61	−11.79
31	PHI	-3.43	8.61	−12.04
32	DET	1.70	15.56	−13.85

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

BUF · 9.65

Multi-year laggard

CAR · -8.67

Biggest improver

CHI · +2.94/yr

Biggest decliner

GB · −2.73/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	BUF	9.65	−1.60	11.52	16.71	13.82	11.95	-0.05	3.98	9.66
2	KC	5.95	−1.67	8.06	12.29	9.14	6.69	5.61	-6.18	6.01
3	BAL	5.50	−1.52	14.54	1.30	7.04	4.99	9.03	3.14	-1.54
4	TB	5.35	−0.02	5.79	9.01	0.14	1.52	12.78	2.35	5.83
5	SF	5.06	+1.27	3.76	0.28	4.31	6.92	-0.40	9.45	11.08
6	LAR	3.75	+0.50	8.17	2.41	-1.63	4.37	-3.42	3.98	12.39
7	LAC	3.08	+1.66	0.04	-4.57	6.29	-1.96	5.31	10.82	5.62
8	MIN	3.06	+1.65	0.45	1.00	2.26	-2.28	5.26	-2.24	16.98
9	DAL	2.15	−0.94	-6.92	9.81	7.39	12.97	0.06	-4.57	-3.70
10	PIT	1.94	−0.73	5.08	2.52	4.26	-2.54	4.89	-1.21	0.57
11	PHI	1.52	−0.43	-1.98	1.72	7.27	1.42	8.61	-3.43	-2.96
12	GB	1.25	−2.73	10.00	1.14	2.18	5.96	1.25	7.99	-19.76
13	CIN	0.87	+1.41	-7.39	-1.40	7.45	-3.19	4.70	0.44	5.48
14	NO	0.53	−1.10	7.54	-1.32	0.06	3.74	-5.91	3.75	-4.17
15	NE	-0.47	+0.11	0.09	7.08	-4.57	-6.71	-7.68	4.90	3.60
16	CHI	-0.66	+2.94	-3.30	-5.83	-7.35	-3.24	-4.87	1.71	18.29
17	IND	-1.20	+0.76	-2.14	0.48	-4.34	-1.29	-7.34	-0.05	6.28
18	JAX	-1.26	+1.78	-4.10	-7.17	-1.32	1.34	-7.14	-0.27	9.82
19	DEN	-1.51	+0.27	-1.78	-6.24	-4.68	3.16	1.55	8.92	-11.46
20	ARI	-1.78	−0.83	0.40	8.14	-7.57	-7.86	-0.42	-2.37	-2.76
21	MIA	-1.78	−2.26	7.11	-0.29	-5.19	3.50	0.08	-5.16	-12.50
22	HOU	-1.85	+1.02	-3.03	-3.78	-9.96	1.36	2.35	0.72	-0.60
23	SEA	-2.06	+1.34	-5.81	-1.46	-4.86	-9.43	-0.14	9.53	-2.24
24	DET	-2.11	+0.90	-7.32	-10.80	-5.11	5.36	15.56	1.70	-14.14
25	ATL	-2.49	−0.04	2.58	-9.82	-4.06	5.47	-5.88	-5.95	0.24
26	TEN	-2.53	−1.19	-5.69	6.69	2.95	-4.03	-4.58	-9.60	-3.47
27	CLE	-2.61	−1.65	1.38	-0.29	-1.97	3.01	-6.86	-2.75	-10.78
28	NYG	-3.21	+0.70	-8.03	-3.50	2.51	-7.02	-5.31	0.36	-1.50
29	WAS	-3.24	−1.01	0.94	-10.05	3.27	-5.83	6.74	-4.21	-13.57
30	LV	-4.56	−0.52	-3.31	-2.74	-2.12	-5.39	-5.24	-12.42	-0.67
31	NYJ	-4.90	+2.06	-11.41	-8.24	-3.70	-11.23	0.85	-4.01	3.45
32	CAR	-8.67	−0.19	-10.81	-2.22	-9.67	-6.90	-14.89	-11.62	-4.59

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
LAC	0.04	-4.57	6.29	-1.96	5.31	10.82	5.62
SEA	-5.81	-1.46	-4.86	-9.43	-0.14	9.53	-2.24
SF	3.76	0.28	4.31	6.92	-0.40	9.45	11.08
DEN	-1.78	-6.24	-4.68	3.16	1.55	8.92	-11.46
GB	10.00	1.14	2.18	5.96	1.25	7.99	-19.76
NE	0.09	7.08	-4.57	-6.71	-7.68	4.90	3.60
LAR	8.17	2.41	-1.63	4.37	-3.42	3.98	12.39
BUF	11.52	16.71	13.82	11.95	-0.05	3.98	9.66
NO	7.54	-1.32	0.06	3.74	-5.91	3.75	-4.17
BAL	14.54	1.30	7.04	4.99	9.03	3.14	-1.54
TB	5.79	9.01	0.14	1.52	12.78	2.35	5.83
CHI	-3.30	-5.83	-7.35	-3.24	-4.87	1.71	18.29
DET	-7.32	-10.80	-5.11	5.36	15.56	1.70	-14.14
HOU	-3.03	-3.78	-9.96	1.36	2.35	0.72	-0.60
CIN	-7.39	-1.40	7.45	-3.19	4.70	0.44	5.48
NYG	-8.03	-3.50	2.51	-7.02	-5.31	0.36	-1.50
IND	-2.14	0.48	-4.34	-1.29	-7.34	-0.05	6.28
JAX	-4.10	-7.17	-1.32	1.34	-7.14	-0.27	9.82
PIT	5.08	2.52	4.26	-2.54	4.89	-1.21	0.57
MIN	0.45	1.00	2.26	-2.28	5.26	-2.24	16.98
ARI	0.40	8.14	-7.57	-7.86	-0.42	-2.37	-2.76
CLE	1.38	-0.29	-1.97	3.01	-6.86	-2.75	-10.78
PHI	-1.98	1.72	7.27	1.42	8.61	-3.43	-2.96
NYJ	-11.41	-8.24	-3.70	-11.23	0.85	-4.01	3.45
WAS	0.94	-10.05	3.27	-5.83	6.74	-4.21	-13.57
DAL	-6.92	9.81	7.39	12.97	0.06	-4.57	-3.70
MIA	7.11	-0.29	-5.19	3.50	0.08	-5.16	-12.50
ATL	2.58	-9.82	-4.06	5.47	-5.88	-5.95	0.24
KC	8.06	12.29	9.14	6.69	5.61	-6.18	6.01
TEN	-5.69	6.69	2.95	-4.03	-4.58	-9.60	-3.47
CAR	-10.81	-2.22	-9.67	-6.90	-14.89	-11.62	-4.59
LV	-3.31	-2.74	-2.12	-5.39	-5.24	-12.42	-0.67

Third down pct (Off − Def) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Ravens (11.85), 2019 Patriots (14.44), 2020 Ravens (14.54), 2021 Bills (16.71), 2022 Bills (13.82), 2023 Cowboys (12.97), 2024 Lions (15.56), 2025 Chargers (10.82).

Ravens have led this stat 2 of 8 seasons.

The best season on record is Bills 2021 at 16.71; the worst Commanders 2019 at -20.95.

The league average has fallen from 0.03 in 2018 to -0.07 in 2025.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2025.

About this stat

Stat ID: net_third_down_pct
Side: net
Family: NET (Off − Def)
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: rate
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.