NET EPA (Off + Def)
New England Patriots — NET EPA (Off + Def), 2026
- Value4.16
- Rank#11 of 32
- League average0.09
- Rank in 2025#3 of 32
What NET EPA (Off + Def) is
Net EPA: the expected points this team's offense added plus the expected points its defense took away from opponents — the two sides of the ball valued play by play, in one number. The situation-aware summary of a whole team; a strong positive number is a team that wins the down-and-distance battle on both sides.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: N.
Through Week 6 of 2026, the 49ers lead at 13.05; the league average is 0.09.
League snapshot — 2026
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 13.05 | 5 |
| 2 | JAX | 12.27 | 5 |
| 3 | MIN | 11.16 | 5 |
| 4 | KC | 11.04 | 4 |
| 5 | SEA | 7.34 | 5 |
| 6 | BAL | 5.70 | 5 |
| 7 | BUF | 5.29 | 5 |
| 8 | CHI | 4.83 | 5 |
| 9 | CIN | 4.75 | 5 |
| 10 | DET | 4.31 | 5 |
| 11 | NE | 4.16 | 5 |
| 12 | CAR | 3.62 | 4 |
| 13 | LV | 1.87 | 5 |
| 14 | NYG | 0.64 | 5 |
| 15 | ATL | 0.34 | 5 |
| 16 | DAL | 0.34 | 5 |
| 17 | NYJ | -0.20 | 5 |
| 18 | LAR | -0.55 | 5 |
| 19 | GB | -1.04 | 5 |
| 20 | IND | -1.46 | 5 |
| 21 | PIT | -1.55 | 5 |
| 22 | HOU | -1.65 | 5 |
| 23 | DEN | -2.93 | 5 |
| 24 | TB | -3.00 | 5 |
| 25 | CLE | -3.66 | 5 |
| 26 | PHI | -5.03 | 5 |
| 27 | WAS | -7.61 | 5 |
| 28 | NO | -8.99 | 5 |
| 29 | LAC | -10.63 | 5 |
| 30 | ARI | -11.87 | 5 |
| 31 | TEN | -12.83 | 5 |
| 32 | MIA | -14.76 | 5 |
At a glance — 2026
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
All teams — 2026
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF | 13.05 | 12.95 | 100% |
| 2 | JAX | 12.27 | 12.18 | 96.8% |
| 3 | MIN | 11.16 | 11.07 | 93.5% |
| 4 | KC | 11.04 | 10.94 | 90.3% |
| 5 | SEA | 7.34 | 7.24 | 87.1% |
| 6 | BAL | 5.70 | 5.61 | 83.9% |
| 7 | BUF | 5.29 | 5.19 | 80.6% |
| 8 | CHI | 4.83 | 4.74 | 77.4% |
| 9 | CIN | 4.75 | 4.65 | 74.2% |
| 10 | DET | 4.31 | 4.22 | 71% |
| 11 | NE | 4.16 | 4.07 | 67.7% |
| 12 | CAR | 3.62 | 3.52 | 64.5% |
| 13 | LV | 1.87 | 1.78 | 61.3% |
| 14 | NYG | 0.64 | 0.54 | 58.1% |
| 15 | ATL | 0.34 | 0.25 | 54.8% |
| 16 | DAL | 0.34 | 0.25 | 51.6% |
| 17 | NYJ | -0.20 | -0.29 | 48.4% |
| 18 | LAR | -0.55 | -0.64 | 45.2% |
| 19 | GB | -1.04 | -1.13 | 41.9% |
| 20 | IND | -1.46 | -1.55 | 38.7% |
| 21 | PIT | -1.55 | -1.64 | 35.5% |
| 22 | HOU | -1.65 | -1.74 | 32.3% |
| 23 | DEN | -2.93 | -3.02 | 29% |
| 24 | TB | -3.00 | -3.09 | 25.8% |
| 25 | CLE | -3.66 | -3.75 | 22.6% |
| 26 | PHI | -5.03 | -5.12 | 19.4% |
| 27 | WAS | -7.61 | -7.70 | 16.1% |
| 28 | NO | -8.99 | -9.08 | 12.9% |
| 29 | LAC | -10.63 | -10.73 | 9.7% |
| 30 | ARI | -11.87 | -11.96 | 6.5% |
| 31 | TEN | -12.83 | -12.92 | 3.2% |
| 32 | MIA | -14.76 | -14.85 | 0% |
Does NET EPA (Off + Def) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 974–604–37 ATS (61.7%) across 2020–2025, #1 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2020 (168–86, 66.1%); its worst 2022 (154–110, 58.3%).
For picks, this is a strong signal. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 168–86–2 | 66.1% |
| 2021 | 272 | 161–109–2 | 59.6% |
| 2022 | 271 | 154–110–7 | 58.3% |
| 2023 | 272 | 155–103–14 | 60.1% |
| 2024 | 272 | 170–93–9 | 64.6% |
| 2025 | 272 | 166–103–3 | 61.7% |
NET EPA (Off + Def) in 2026 vs 2025
49ers lead at 13.05 — they ranked #8 last year. Dolphins are last at -14.76 — #23 last year.
The league average is 0.09, up 0.09 from 0.00 last year.
Biggest riser: Raiders, #30 → #13. Biggest faller: Texans, #5 → #22.
Spread between first and last: 27.81; 21 teams are within 7.12 of the average.
Year-over-year — 2026 vs 2025
Biggest movers from last season.
YoY by team — 2026 vs 2025
| Rank | Team | 2026 | 2025 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 1.87 | -13.44 | +15.31 |
| 2 | NYJ | -0.20 | -14.22 | +14.01 |
| 3 | MIN | 11.16 | 0.57 | +10.59 |
| 4 | CIN | 4.75 | -5.26 | +10.01 |
| 5 | KC | 11.04 | 2.20 | +8.83 |
| 6 | CAR | 3.62 | -4.95 | +8.57 |
| 7 | SF | 13.05 | 4.99 | +8.05 |
| 8 | BAL | 5.70 | 1.22 | +4.48 |
| 9 | NYG | 0.64 | -3.48 | +4.11 |
| 10 | ATL | 0.34 | -3.27 | +3.62 |
| 11 | CLE | -3.66 | -7.05 | +3.39 |
| 12 | DAL | 0.34 | -2.67 | +3.01 |
| 13 | JAX | 12.27 | 9.39 | +2.88 |
| 14 | CHI | 4.83 | 2.20 | +2.63 |
| 15 | TEN | -12.83 | -13.54 | +0.72 |
| 16 | DET | 4.31 | 4.38 | −0.06 |
| 17 | WAS | -7.61 | -6.97 | −0.64 |
| 18 | TB | -3.00 | -1.75 | −1.25 |
| 19 | PIT | -1.55 | 0.72 | −2.27 |
| 20 | ARI | -11.87 | -9.26 | −2.61 |
| 21 | BUF | 5.29 | 7.93 | −2.64 |
| 22 | NO | -8.99 | -5.73 | −3.26 |
| 23 | GB | -1.04 | 2.55 | −3.59 |
| 24 | IND | -1.46 | 4.07 | −5.53 |
| 25 | SEA | 7.34 | 13.58 | −6.24 |
| 26 | NE | 4.16 | 11.34 | −7.18 |
| 27 | DEN | -2.93 | 5.54 | −8.47 |
| 28 | PHI | -5.03 | 3.93 | −8.95 |
| 29 | MIA | -14.76 | -4.93 | −9.83 |
| 30 | HOU | -1.65 | 8.20 | −9.85 |
| 31 | LAC | -10.63 | 1.77 | −12.40 |
| 32 | LAR | -0.55 | 11.94 | −12.49 |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 9.80 | −0.86 | 9.37 | 13.40 | 12.18 | 9.27 | 11.20 | 7.93 | 5.29 |
| 2 | KC | 6.95 | −0.30 | 8.08 | 8.38 | 9.29 | 5.32 | 4.38 | 2.20 | 11.04 |
| 3 | BAL | 6.62 | −0.31 | 12.46 | -0.81 | 3.29 | 13.74 | 10.73 | 1.22 | 5.70 |
| 4 | SF | 6.18 | +1.03 | -1.17 | 4.34 | 12.08 | 13.15 | -3.17 | 4.99 | 13.05 |
| 5 | GB | 4.16 | −1.14 | 10.36 | 6.08 | -0.30 | 2.51 | 8.94 | 2.55 | -1.04 |
| 6 | SEA | 3.90 | +0.96 | 6.12 | 1.60 | 0.83 | -2.23 | 0.06 | 13.58 | 7.34 |
| 7 | TB | 3.27 | −1.91 | 10.10 | 11.06 | -3.36 | 1.71 | 8.14 | -1.75 | -3.00 |
| 8 | LAR | 2.70 | −0.20 | 6.28 | 6.51 | -5.64 | 1.87 | -1.53 | 11.94 | -0.55 |
| 9 | DAL | 2.62 | −0.98 | -5.77 | 11.89 | 8.61 | 14.04 | -8.09 | -2.67 | 0.34 |
| 10 | PHI | 2.47 | +0.24 | -6.65 | 4.11 | 8.98 | 0.78 | 11.18 | 3.93 | -5.03 |
| 11 | MIN | 1.94 | +1.97 | -4.06 | 0.62 | -1.51 | -1.21 | 7.99 | 0.57 | 11.16 |
| 12 | DET | 1.16 | +3.13 | -10.86 | -10.00 | 1.38 | 4.17 | 14.73 | 4.38 | 4.31 |
| 13 | NE | 1.08 | +0.30 | -1.81 | 10.64 | 1.77 | -9.31 | -9.24 | 11.34 | 4.16 |
| 14 | CIN | 0.79 | +0.48 | -8.42 | 5.52 | 7.26 | -1.13 | 2.82 | -5.26 | 4.75 |
| 15 | PIT | 0.38 | −0.54 | 7.66 | -3.09 | -2.38 | -1.27 | 2.56 | 0.72 | -1.55 |
| 16 | IND | 0.19 | −0.86 | 7.24 | 5.75 | -8.90 | -1.75 | -3.63 | 4.07 | -1.46 |
| 17 | NO | -0.50 | −2.70 | 9.99 | 1.93 | -1.23 | 5.15 | -4.59 | -5.73 | -8.99 |
| 18 | DEN | -0.90 | +1.44 | -8.61 | 0.74 | -5.31 | -3.98 | 8.23 | 5.54 | -2.93 |
| 19 | LAC | -1.13 | −0.44 | -3.40 | 0.77 | -0.21 | -3.41 | 7.23 | 1.77 | -10.63 |
| 20 | JAX | -1.34 | +4.03 | -13.55 | -14.39 | 4.15 | 0.66 | -7.94 | 9.39 | 12.27 |
| 21 | MIA | -1.40 | −2.39 | 5.20 | -2.23 | 0.53 | 7.37 | -1.01 | -4.93 | -14.76 |
| 22 | CHI | -2.11 | +1.32 | -0.28 | -6.65 | -9.18 | -0.58 | -5.14 | 2.20 | 4.83 |
| 23 | HOU | -2.54 | +2.18 | -5.62 | -11.94 | -8.59 | 1.47 | 0.33 | 8.20 | -1.65 |
| 24 | ATL | -3.08 | +0.55 | -0.59 | -10.04 | -1.74 | -3.59 | -2.66 | -3.27 | 0.34 |
| 25 | CLE | -3.49 | −1.02 | -1.05 | -2.18 | -1.16 | 2.75 | -12.11 | -7.05 | -3.66 |
| 26 | ARI | -3.78 | −2.44 | 3.35 | 6.44 | -7.72 | -8.54 | 1.10 | -9.26 | -11.87 |
| 27 | WAS | -4.24 | −0.53 | -0.11 | -6.80 | -1.51 | -13.19 | 6.52 | -6.97 | -7.61 |
| 28 | LV | -4.26 | −0.35 | -3.29 | -4.46 | -1.38 | -0.42 | -8.67 | -13.44 | 1.87 |
| 29 | TEN | -5.58 | −3.18 | 3.32 | 3.81 | -4.34 | -5.23 | -10.23 | -13.54 | -12.83 |
| 30 | CAR | -5.59 | +0.48 | -3.73 | -6.76 | -1.39 | -12.18 | -13.71 | -4.95 | 3.62 |
| 31 | NYG | -5.60 | +0.79 | -5.17 | -10.26 | -1.13 | -9.68 | -10.09 | -3.48 | 0.64 |
| 32 | NYJ | -8.08 | +1.53 | -15.39 | -13.99 | -2.18 | -6.26 | -4.34 | -14.22 | -0.20 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | -1.17 | 4.34 | 12.08 | 13.15 | -3.17 | 4.99 | 13.05 |
| JAX | -13.55 | -14.39 | 4.15 | 0.66 | -7.94 | 9.39 | 12.27 |
| MIN | -4.06 | 0.62 | -1.51 | -1.21 | 7.99 | 0.57 | 11.16 |
| KC | 8.08 | 8.38 | 9.29 | 5.32 | 4.38 | 2.20 | 11.04 |
| SEA | 6.12 | 1.60 | 0.83 | -2.23 | 0.06 | 13.58 | 7.34 |
| BAL | 12.46 | -0.81 | 3.29 | 13.74 | 10.73 | 1.22 | 5.70 |
| BUF | 9.37 | 13.40 | 12.18 | 9.27 | 11.20 | 7.93 | 5.29 |
| CHI | -0.28 | -6.65 | -9.18 | -0.58 | -5.14 | 2.20 | 4.83 |
| CIN | -8.42 | 5.52 | 7.26 | -1.13 | 2.82 | -5.26 | 4.75 |
| DET | -10.86 | -10.00 | 1.38 | 4.17 | 14.73 | 4.38 | 4.31 |
| NE | -1.81 | 10.64 | 1.77 | -9.31 | -9.24 | 11.34 | 4.16 |
| CAR | -3.73 | -6.76 | -1.39 | -12.18 | -13.71 | -4.95 | 3.62 |
| LV | -3.29 | -4.46 | -1.38 | -0.42 | -8.67 | -13.44 | 1.87 |
| NYG | -5.17 | -10.26 | -1.13 | -9.68 | -10.09 | -3.48 | 0.64 |
| ATL | -0.59 | -10.04 | -1.74 | -3.59 | -2.66 | -3.27 | 0.34 |
| DAL | -5.77 | 11.89 | 8.61 | 14.04 | -8.09 | -2.67 | 0.34 |
| NYJ | -15.39 | -13.99 | -2.18 | -6.26 | -4.34 | -14.22 | -0.20 |
| LAR | 6.28 | 6.51 | -5.64 | 1.87 | -1.53 | 11.94 | -0.55 |
| GB | 10.36 | 6.08 | -0.30 | 2.51 | 8.94 | 2.55 | -1.04 |
| IND | 7.24 | 5.75 | -8.90 | -1.75 | -3.63 | 4.07 | -1.46 |
| PIT | 7.66 | -3.09 | -2.38 | -1.27 | 2.56 | 0.72 | -1.55 |
| HOU | -5.62 | -11.94 | -8.59 | 1.47 | 0.33 | 8.20 | -1.65 |
| DEN | -8.61 | 0.74 | -5.31 | -3.98 | 8.23 | 5.54 | -2.93 |
| TB | 10.10 | 11.06 | -3.36 | 1.71 | 8.14 | -1.75 | -3.00 |
| CLE | -1.05 | -2.18 | -1.16 | 2.75 | -12.11 | -7.05 | -3.66 |
| PHI | -6.65 | 4.11 | 8.98 | 0.78 | 11.18 | 3.93 | -5.03 |
| WAS | -0.11 | -6.80 | -1.51 | -13.19 | 6.52 | -6.97 | -7.61 |
| NO | 9.99 | 1.93 | -1.23 | 5.15 | -4.59 | -5.73 | -8.99 |
| LAC | -3.40 | 0.77 | -0.21 | -3.41 | 7.23 | 1.77 | -10.63 |
| ARI | 3.35 | 6.44 | -7.72 | -8.54 | 1.10 | -9.26 | -11.87 |
| TEN | 3.32 | 3.81 | -4.34 | -5.23 | -10.23 | -13.54 | -12.83 |
| MIA | 5.20 | -2.23 | 0.53 | 7.37 | -1.01 | -4.93 | -14.76 |
NET EPA (Off + Def) since 2018
Leaders since 2018: 2018 Chiefs (11.33), 2019 Ravens (17.93), 2020 Ravens (12.46), 2021 Bills (13.40), 2022 Bills (12.18), 2023 Cowboys (14.04), 2024 Lions (14.73), 2025 Seahawks (13.58), 2026 49ers (13.05).
Ravens have led this stat 2 of 9 seasons.
The best season on record is Ravens 2019 at 17.93; the worst Jets 2020 at -15.39.
Week to week — Week 4 to Week 5
Since Week 4: Lions up 8 (#18 → #10), Patriots up 8 (#19 → #11), Packers up 8 (#27 → #19); Raiders down 6 (#7 → #13), Cardinals down 5 (#25 → #30), Cowboys down 5 (#11 → #16).
18 teams moved by two places or fewer.
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2026.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- net_epa
- Side
- net_epa
- Family
- NET (Off + Def)
- Data source
- N only
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.