What Exp pts def tot (allowed) is

Total expected points contributed by the defense: every opponent play valued by how much it changed their chance of scoring, summed over the season, from the defense's side. The situation-aware summary of the whole defense.

Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.

In 2024 the Broncos led at 6.13; the league average was -0.98.

League snapshot — 2024

League leader

DEN · 6.13

League average

-0.98

Best to worst

16.74

All 32 teams, higher is better.

Rank	Team	Value	Games
1	DEN	6.13	17
2	MIN	6.12	17
3	PHI	4.45	17
4	LAC	4.09	17
5	GB	3.17	17
6	DET	3.11	17
7	PIT	2.03	17
8	HOU	1.34	17
9	CLE	0.90	17
10	SEA	0.85	17
11	BUF	0.29	17
12	MIA	0.20	17
13	LV	0.08	17
14	KC	0.03	17
15	TB	-0.35	17
16	NO	-0.55	17
17	BAL	-0.71	17
18	IND	-0.73	17
19	CHI	-0.87	17
20	LAR	-2.91	17
21	TEN	-2.97	17
22	NYG	-3.23	17
23	WAS	-3.30	17
24	ATL	-3.60	17
25	ARI	-3.93	17
26	NYJ	-4.00	17
27	NE	-4.06	17
28	DAL	-4.20	17
29	CIN	-4.65	17
30	SF	-5.04	17
31	JAX	-8.45	17
32	CAR	-10.60	17

At a glance — 2024

Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.

League leader

DEN · 6.13

League laggard

CAR · -10.60

League average

-0.98

Spread (max − min)

16.74

Rank	Team	Value	Δ vs avg	Percentile
1	DEN	6.13	7.11	100%
2	MIN	6.12	7.10	96.8%
3	PHI	4.45	5.43	93.5%
4	LAC	4.09	5.07	90.3%
5	GB	3.17	4.15	87.1%
6	DET	3.11	4.09	83.9%
7	PIT	2.03	3.01	80.6%
8	HOU	1.34	2.32	77.4%
9	CLE	0.90	1.88	74.2%
10	SEA	0.85	1.83	71%
11	BUF	0.29	1.27	67.7%
12	MIA	0.20	1.18	64.5%
13	LV	0.08	1.06	61.3%
14	KC	0.03	1.01	58.1%
15	TB	-0.35	0.63	54.8%
16	NO	-0.55	0.43	51.6%
17	BAL	-0.71	0.27	48.4%
18	IND	-0.73	0.25	45.2%
19	CHI	-0.87	0.11	41.9%
20	LAR	-2.91	-1.93	38.7%
21	TEN	-2.97	-1.99	35.5%
22	NYG	-3.23	-2.25	32.3%
23	WAS	-3.30	-2.32	29%
24	ATL	-3.60	-2.62	25.8%
25	ARI	-3.93	-2.95	22.6%
26	NYJ	-4.00	-3.02	19.4%
27	NE	-4.06	-3.07	16.1%
28	DAL	-4.20	-3.22	12.9%
29	CIN	-4.65	-3.67	9.7%
30	SF	-5.04	-4.06	6.5%
31	JAX	-8.45	-7.47	3.2%
32	CAR	-10.60	-9.62	0%

Does Exp pts def tot (allowed) matter against the spread?

Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 735–843–37 ATS (46.6%) across 2020–2025, #296 of 296 ranked.

Its best season was 2022 (134–130, 50.8%); its worst 2024 (106–157, 40.3%).

For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.

Season	Games	ATS record	ATS %
2020	256	124–130–2	48.8%
2021	272	128–142–2	47.4%
2022	271	134–130–7	50.8%
2023	272	120–138–14	46.5%
2024	272	106–157–9	40.3%
2025	272	123–146–3	45.7%

Exp pts def tot (allowed) in 2024 vs 2023

Broncos lead at 6.13 — they ranked #25 last year. Panthers are last at -10.60 — #27 last year.

The league average is -0.98, down 3.57 from 2.59 last year.

Biggest riser: Eagles, #30 → #3. Biggest faller: Jets, #3 → #26.

Spread between first and last: 16.74; 23 teams are within 3.78 of the average.

Year-over-year — 2024 vs 2023

Biggest movers from last season.

Biggest riser

PHI · +7.98

Biggest faller

NYJ · −12.97

Most consistent

TEN · −0.21

League trend 2024 vs 2023

▼ -3.57

Rank	Team	2024	2023	Δ
1	PHI	4.45	-3.54	+7.98
2	DEN	6.13	-0.38	+6.51
3	SEA	0.85	-3.48	+4.33
4	MIN	6.12	2.70	+3.42
5	GB	3.17	0.15	+3.02
6	WAS	-3.30	-6.27	+2.96
7	LAC	4.09	1.30	+2.78
8	ARI	-3.93	-4.99	+1.06
9	DET	3.11	2.61	+0.50
10	TEN	-2.97	-2.76	−0.21
11	MIA	0.20	1.66	−1.46
12	HOU	1.34	3.08	−1.73
13	IND	-0.73	1.40	−2.13
14	PIT	2.03	4.66	−2.63
15	TB	-0.35	3.26	−3.61
16	BUF	0.29	4.13	−3.83
17	CIN	-4.65	-0.70	−3.95
18	LAR	-2.91	2.01	−4.92
19	CHI	-0.87	4.42	−5.29
20	LV	0.08	5.50	−5.42
21	KC	0.03	5.56	−5.53
22	NYG	-3.23	2.60	−5.83
23	ATL	-3.60	3.65	−7.25
24	SF	-5.04	3.62	−8.66
25	CAR	-10.60	-1.21	−9.40
26	NE	-4.06	5.43	−9.49
27	NO	-0.55	8.96	−9.51
28	DAL	-4.20	6.08	−10.28
29	BAL	-0.71	9.66	−10.37
30	CLE	0.90	11.55	−10.65
31	JAX	-8.45	3.16	−11.61
32	NYJ	-4.00	8.97	−12.97

Multi-year context

7-year window (2020–2026)

Multi-year leader

MIN · 3.62

Multi-year laggard

DET · -3.21

Biggest improver

MIN · +3.03/yr

Biggest decliner

DAL · −2.45/yr

Rank	Team	Avg	Slope/yr	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
1	MIN	3.62	+3.03	-6.61	1.05	-0.16	2.70	6.12	5.89	16.32
2	NO	3.44	−1.49	4.73	9.04	3.13	8.96	-0.55	2.17	-3.37
3	NE	2.47	−0.33	-2.52	7.12	7.40	5.43	-4.06	2.70	1.19
4	LAR	2.22	−1.15	10.28	2.44	0.20	2.01	-2.91	3.80	-0.28
5	TB	1.88	−0.61	3.29	4.64	1.53	3.26	-0.35	-1.60	2.39
6	SEA	1.83	+1.58	-1.16	0.36	-0.45	-3.48	0.85	9.95	6.76
7	CLE	1.57	+0.95	-5.23	-0.26	-0.73	11.55	0.90	5.73	-0.94
8	PIT	1.54	−1.12	6.91	1.99	-0.94	4.66	2.03	-2.12	-1.78
9	LAC	1.53	+1.13	-1.00	-2.83	1.38	1.30	4.09	2.89	4.87
10	BAL	1.42	−1.00	4.87	-1.28	2.40	9.66	-0.71	-2.20	-2.79
11	DEN	1.30	+0.88	-2.87	-0.09	1.50	-0.38	6.13	3.10	1.70
12	PHI	0.93	+0.11	-1.03	0.89	4.19	-3.54	4.45	2.98	-1.44
13	SF	0.92	−0.59	-0.29	0.63	8.94	3.62	-5.04	-2.13	0.72
14	BUF	0.78	−1.80	-1.34	8.94	4.78	4.13	0.29	-1.73	-9.58
15	IND	0.14	−1.41	3.07	2.55	2.80	1.40	-0.73	-2.66	-5.45
16	HOU	0.09	+1.65	-9.49	-2.87	1.64	3.08	1.34	8.49	-1.54
17	KC	-0.02	+0.54	-3.71	-1.18	-0.77	5.56	0.03	-0.92	0.84
18	CHI	-0.19	+0.07	1.09	0.36	-5.82	4.42	-0.87	-2.30	1.83
19	GB	-0.48	+0.13	-1.82	-1.11	0.12	0.15	3.17	-4.62	0.72
20	MIA	-0.66	−1.73	4.11	2.78	-0.97	1.66	0.20	-5.46	-6.91
21	LV	-0.99	+1.10	-7.32	-3.44	-1.29	5.50	0.08	-2.02	1.58
22	ATL	-1.00	+0.69	-2.79	-3.87	-1.57	3.65	-3.60	-1.89	3.05
23	DAL	-1.15	−2.45	-3.33	7.45	7.20	6.08	-4.20	-11.37	-9.89
24	JAX	-1.38	+1.80	-8.14	-6.98	1.78	3.16	-8.45	4.72	4.24
25	NYJ	-1.48	+0.38	-5.07	-8.12	5.09	8.97	-4.00	-9.99	2.75
26	NYG	-1.59	−0.28	-1.31	-0.18	-3.13	2.60	-3.23	-5.69	-0.21
27	CIN	-1.88	−0.66	-5.26	2.99	3.80	-0.70	-4.65	-7.93	-1.36
28	CAR	-2.34	−0.61	-4.83	4.01	1.30	-1.21	-10.60	-3.59	-1.49
29	TEN	-2.74	−0.49	-7.67	3.67	0.78	-2.76	-2.97	-5.15	-5.08
30	ARI	-2.86	−2.19	1.86	4.01	0.12	-4.99	-3.93	-7.52	-9.57
31	WAS	-2.95	−1.66	3.96	-3.54	3.17	-6.27	-3.30	-8.87	-5.79
32	DET	-3.21	+0.58	-10.22	-4.98	-2.59	2.61	3.11	-1.26	-9.16

Multi-year heatmap

32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.

Team	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
DEN	-2.87	-0.09	1.50	-0.38	6.13	3.10	1.70
MIN	-6.61	1.05	-0.16	2.70	6.12	5.89	16.32
PHI	-1.03	0.89	4.19	-3.54	4.45	2.98	-1.44
LAC	-1.00	-2.83	1.38	1.30	4.09	2.89	4.87
GB	-1.82	-1.11	0.12	0.15	3.17	-4.62	0.72
DET	-10.22	-4.98	-2.59	2.61	3.11	-1.26	-9.16
PIT	6.91	1.99	-0.94	4.66	2.03	-2.12	-1.78
HOU	-9.49	-2.87	1.64	3.08	1.34	8.49	-1.54
CLE	-5.23	-0.26	-0.73	11.55	0.90	5.73	-0.94
SEA	-1.16	0.36	-0.45	-3.48	0.85	9.95	6.76
BUF	-1.34	8.94	4.78	4.13	0.29	-1.73	-9.58
MIA	4.11	2.78	-0.97	1.66	0.20	-5.46	-6.91
LV	-7.32	-3.44	-1.29	5.50	0.08	-2.02	1.58
KC	-3.71	-1.18	-0.77	5.56	0.03	-0.92	0.84
TB	3.29	4.64	1.53	3.26	-0.35	-1.60	2.39
NO	4.73	9.04	3.13	8.96	-0.55	2.17	-3.37
BAL	4.87	-1.28	2.40	9.66	-0.71	-2.20	-2.79
IND	3.07	2.55	2.80	1.40	-0.73	-2.66	-5.45
CHI	1.09	0.36	-5.82	4.42	-0.87	-2.30	1.83
LAR	10.28	2.44	0.20	2.01	-2.91	3.80	-0.28
TEN	-7.67	3.67	0.78	-2.76	-2.97	-5.15	-5.08
NYG	-1.31	-0.18	-3.13	2.60	-3.23	-5.69	-0.21
WAS	3.96	-3.54	3.17	-6.27	-3.30	-8.87	-5.79
ATL	-2.79	-3.87	-1.57	3.65	-3.60	-1.89	3.05
ARI	1.86	4.01	0.12	-4.99	-3.93	-7.52	-9.57
NYJ	-5.07	-8.12	5.09	8.97	-4.00	-9.99	2.75
NE	-2.52	7.12	7.40	5.43	-4.06	2.70	1.19
DAL	-3.33	7.45	7.20	6.08	-4.20	-11.37	-9.89
CIN	-5.26	2.99	3.80	-0.70	-4.65	-7.93	-1.36
SF	-0.29	0.63	8.94	3.62	-5.04	-2.13	0.72
JAX	-8.14	-6.98	1.78	3.16	-8.45	4.72	4.24
CAR	-4.83	4.01	1.30	-1.21	-10.60	-3.59	-1.49

Exp pts def tot (allowed) since 2018

Leaders since 2018: 2018 Bears (10.51), 2019 Patriots (15.17), 2020 Rams (10.28), 2021 Saints (9.04), 2022 49ers (8.94), 2023 Browns (11.55), 2024 Broncos (6.13).

The best season on record is Patriots 2019 at 15.17; the worst Panthers 2024 at -10.60.

The league average has fallen from 0.74 in 2018 to -0.98 in 2024.

Distribution

How the 32 teams cluster for 2024.

About this stat

Stat ID: def_team_stats_exp_pts_def_tot
Side: defensive
Family: Team Stats
Data source: P + N
Polarity: higher is better (or neutral)
Display grain: count
Algorithm eligibility: Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.