Defensive: Team Stats · Exp pts def tot (allowed)
P + N
About this stat ↓What Exp pts def tot (allowed) is
Total expected points contributed by the defense: every opponent play valued by how much it changed their chance of scoring, summed over the season, from the defense's side. The situation-aware summary of the whole defense.
Higher is better. It is shown per game, so a team's number does not depend on games played. Source: P + N.
In 2018 the Bears led at 10.51; the league average was 0.74.
League snapshot — 2018
League leader
CHI · 10.51
League average
0.74
Best to worst
17.31
All 32 teams, higher is better.
| Rank | Team | Value | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 10.51 | 16 |
| 2 | MIN | 7.86 | 16 |
| 3 | BAL | 6.63 | 16 |
| 4 | BUF | 6.22 | 16 |
| 5 | HOU | 5.75 | 16 |
| 6 | JAX | 4.43 | 16 |
| 7 | NE | 3.85 | 16 |
| 8 | IND | 3.09 | 16 |
| 9 | DAL | 2.88 | 16 |
| 10 | LAC | 2.39 | 16 |
| 11 | DEN | 1.91 | 16 |
| 12 | TEN | 1.76 | 16 |
| 13 | ARI | 1.74 | 16 |
| 14 | NO | 1.71 | 16 |
| 15 | CLE | 1.56 | 16 |
| 16 | DET | 1.48 | 16 |
| 17 | LAR | 1.46 | 16 |
| 18 | NYJ | 1.15 | 16 |
| 19 | SEA | 0.82 | 16 |
| 20 | PIT | 0.62 | 16 |
| 21 | WAS | -0.64 | 16 |
| 22 | PHI | -0.85 | 16 |
| 23 | MIA | -1.20 | 16 |
| 24 | GB | -2.25 | 16 |
| 25 | CAR | -3.45 | 16 |
| 26 | SF | -3.48 | 16 |
| 27 | KC | -4.01 | 16 |
| 28 | NYG | -4.17 | 16 |
| 29 | ATL | -5.36 | 16 |
| 30 | CIN | -5.62 | 16 |
| 31 | TB | -6.19 | 16 |
| 32 | LV | -6.80 | 16 |
At a glance — 2018
Where the 32 teams sit on this stat this season.
League leader
CHI · 10.51
League laggard
LV · -6.80
League average
0.74
Spread (max − min)
17.31
All teams — 2018
| Rank | Team | Value | Δ vs avg | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 10.51 | 9.77 | 100% |
| 2 | MIN | 7.86 | 7.11 | 96.8% |
| 3 | BAL | 6.63 | 5.89 | 93.5% |
| 4 | BUF | 6.22 | 5.48 | 90.3% |
| 5 | HOU | 5.75 | 5.01 | 87.1% |
| 6 | JAX | 4.43 | 3.68 | 83.9% |
| 7 | NE | 3.85 | 3.10 | 80.6% |
| 8 | IND | 3.09 | 2.34 | 77.4% |
| 9 | DAL | 2.88 | 2.13 | 74.2% |
| 10 | LAC | 2.39 | 1.65 | 71% |
| 11 | DEN | 1.91 | 1.16 | 67.7% |
| 12 | TEN | 1.76 | 1.02 | 64.5% |
| 13 | ARI | 1.74 | 1.00 | 61.3% |
| 14 | NO | 1.71 | 0.97 | 58.1% |
| 15 | CLE | 1.56 | 0.82 | 54.8% |
| 16 | DET | 1.48 | 0.74 | 51.6% |
| 17 | LAR | 1.46 | 0.71 | 48.4% |
| 18 | NYJ | 1.15 | 0.41 | 45.2% |
| 19 | SEA | 0.82 | 0.07 | 41.9% |
| 20 | PIT | 0.62 | -0.13 | 38.7% |
| 21 | WAS | -0.64 | -1.38 | 35.5% |
| 22 | PHI | -0.85 | -1.60 | 32.3% |
| 23 | MIA | -1.20 | -1.94 | 29% |
| 24 | GB | -2.25 | -2.99 | 25.8% |
| 25 | CAR | -3.45 | -4.20 | 22.6% |
| 26 | SF | -3.48 | -4.22 | 19.4% |
| 27 | KC | -4.01 | -4.75 | 16.1% |
| 28 | NYG | -4.17 | -4.91 | 12.9% |
| 29 | ATL | -5.36 | -6.10 | 9.7% |
| 30 | CIN | -5.62 | -6.36 | 6.5% |
| 31 | TB | -6.19 | -6.93 | 3.2% |
| 32 | LV | -6.80 | -7.54 | 0% |
Does Exp pts def tot (allowed) matter against the spread?
Run as a one-stat algorithm against the closing line, this stat went 735–843–37 ATS (46.6%) across 2020–2025, #296 of 296 ranked.
Its best season was 2022 (134–130, 50.8%); its worst 2024 (106–157, 40.3%).
For picks, this is noise. One stat is not a recipe — the algorithms combine many.
| Season | Games | ATS record | ATS % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 256 | 124–130–2 | 48.8% |
| 2021 | 272 | 128–142–2 | 47.4% |
| 2022 | 271 | 134–130–7 | 50.8% |
| 2023 | 272 | 120–138–14 | 46.5% |
| 2024 | 272 | 106–157–9 | 40.3% |
| 2025 | 272 | 123–146–3 | 45.7% |
Multi-year context
7-year window (2020–2026)
Multi-year leader
MIN · 3.62
Multi-year laggard
DET · -3.21
Biggest improver
MIN · +3.03/yr
Biggest decliner
DAL · −2.45/yr
Multi-year averages
| Rank | Team | Avg | Slope/yr | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 3.62 | +3.03 | -6.61 | 1.05 | -0.16 | 2.70 | 6.12 | 5.89 | 16.32 |
| 2 | NO | 3.44 | −1.49 | 4.73 | 9.04 | 3.13 | 8.96 | -0.55 | 2.17 | -3.37 |
| 3 | NE | 2.47 | −0.33 | -2.52 | 7.12 | 7.40 | 5.43 | -4.06 | 2.70 | 1.19 |
| 4 | LAR | 2.22 | −1.15 | 10.28 | 2.44 | 0.20 | 2.01 | -2.91 | 3.80 | -0.28 |
| 5 | TB | 1.88 | −0.61 | 3.29 | 4.64 | 1.53 | 3.26 | -0.35 | -1.60 | 2.39 |
| 6 | SEA | 1.83 | +1.58 | -1.16 | 0.36 | -0.45 | -3.48 | 0.85 | 9.95 | 6.76 |
| 7 | CLE | 1.57 | +0.95 | -5.23 | -0.26 | -0.73 | 11.55 | 0.90 | 5.73 | -0.94 |
| 8 | PIT | 1.54 | −1.12 | 6.91 | 1.99 | -0.94 | 4.66 | 2.03 | -2.12 | -1.78 |
| 9 | LAC | 1.53 | +1.13 | -1.00 | -2.83 | 1.38 | 1.30 | 4.09 | 2.89 | 4.87 |
| 10 | BAL | 1.42 | −1.00 | 4.87 | -1.28 | 2.40 | 9.66 | -0.71 | -2.20 | -2.79 |
| 11 | DEN | 1.30 | +0.88 | -2.87 | -0.09 | 1.50 | -0.38 | 6.13 | 3.10 | 1.70 |
| 12 | PHI | 0.93 | +0.11 | -1.03 | 0.89 | 4.19 | -3.54 | 4.45 | 2.98 | -1.44 |
| 13 | SF | 0.92 | −0.59 | -0.29 | 0.63 | 8.94 | 3.62 | -5.04 | -2.13 | 0.72 |
| 14 | BUF | 0.78 | −1.80 | -1.34 | 8.94 | 4.78 | 4.13 | 0.29 | -1.73 | -9.58 |
| 15 | IND | 0.14 | −1.41 | 3.07 | 2.55 | 2.80 | 1.40 | -0.73 | -2.66 | -5.45 |
| 16 | HOU | 0.09 | +1.65 | -9.49 | -2.87 | 1.64 | 3.08 | 1.34 | 8.49 | -1.54 |
| 17 | KC | -0.02 | +0.54 | -3.71 | -1.18 | -0.77 | 5.56 | 0.03 | -0.92 | 0.84 |
| 18 | CHI | -0.19 | +0.07 | 1.09 | 0.36 | -5.82 | 4.42 | -0.87 | -2.30 | 1.83 |
| 19 | GB | -0.48 | +0.13 | -1.82 | -1.11 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 3.17 | -4.62 | 0.72 |
| 20 | MIA | -0.66 | −1.73 | 4.11 | 2.78 | -0.97 | 1.66 | 0.20 | -5.46 | -6.91 |
| 21 | LV | -0.99 | +1.10 | -7.32 | -3.44 | -1.29 | 5.50 | 0.08 | -2.02 | 1.58 |
| 22 | ATL | -1.00 | +0.69 | -2.79 | -3.87 | -1.57 | 3.65 | -3.60 | -1.89 | 3.05 |
| 23 | DAL | -1.15 | −2.45 | -3.33 | 7.45 | 7.20 | 6.08 | -4.20 | -11.37 | -9.89 |
| 24 | JAX | -1.38 | +1.80 | -8.14 | -6.98 | 1.78 | 3.16 | -8.45 | 4.72 | 4.24 |
| 25 | NYJ | -1.48 | +0.38 | -5.07 | -8.12 | 5.09 | 8.97 | -4.00 | -9.99 | 2.75 |
| 26 | NYG | -1.59 | −0.28 | -1.31 | -0.18 | -3.13 | 2.60 | -3.23 | -5.69 | -0.21 |
| 27 | CIN | -1.88 | −0.66 | -5.26 | 2.99 | 3.80 | -0.70 | -4.65 | -7.93 | -1.36 |
| 28 | CAR | -2.34 | −0.61 | -4.83 | 4.01 | 1.30 | -1.21 | -10.60 | -3.59 | -1.49 |
| 29 | TEN | -2.74 | −0.49 | -7.67 | 3.67 | 0.78 | -2.76 | -2.97 | -5.15 | -5.08 |
| 30 | ARI | -2.86 | −2.19 | 1.86 | 4.01 | 0.12 | -4.99 | -3.93 | -7.52 | -9.57 |
| 31 | WAS | -2.95 | −1.66 | 3.96 | -3.54 | 3.17 | -6.27 | -3.30 | -8.87 | -5.79 |
| 32 | DET | -3.21 | +0.58 | -10.22 | -4.98 | -2.59 | 2.61 | 3.11 | -1.26 | -9.16 |
Multi-year heatmap
32 teams across 7 seasons. Cells colored by quintile within each season; click a column header to jump to that year.
| Team | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | -6.61 | 1.05 | -0.16 | 2.70 | 6.12 | 5.89 | 16.32 |
| SEA | -1.16 | 0.36 | -0.45 | -3.48 | 0.85 | 9.95 | 6.76 |
| LAC | -1.00 | -2.83 | 1.38 | 1.30 | 4.09 | 2.89 | 4.87 |
| JAX | -8.14 | -6.98 | 1.78 | 3.16 | -8.45 | 4.72 | 4.24 |
| ATL | -2.79 | -3.87 | -1.57 | 3.65 | -3.60 | -1.89 | 3.05 |
| NYJ | -5.07 | -8.12 | 5.09 | 8.97 | -4.00 | -9.99 | 2.75 |
| TB | 3.29 | 4.64 | 1.53 | 3.26 | -0.35 | -1.60 | 2.39 |
| CHI | 1.09 | 0.36 | -5.82 | 4.42 | -0.87 | -2.30 | 1.83 |
| DEN | -2.87 | -0.09 | 1.50 | -0.38 | 6.13 | 3.10 | 1.70 |
| LV | -7.32 | -3.44 | -1.29 | 5.50 | 0.08 | -2.02 | 1.58 |
| NE | -2.52 | 7.12 | 7.40 | 5.43 | -4.06 | 2.70 | 1.19 |
| KC | -3.71 | -1.18 | -0.77 | 5.56 | 0.03 | -0.92 | 0.84 |
| GB | -1.82 | -1.11 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 3.17 | -4.62 | 0.72 |
| SF | -0.29 | 0.63 | 8.94 | 3.62 | -5.04 | -2.13 | 0.72 |
| NYG | -1.31 | -0.18 | -3.13 | 2.60 | -3.23 | -5.69 | -0.21 |
| LAR | 10.28 | 2.44 | 0.20 | 2.01 | -2.91 | 3.80 | -0.28 |
| CLE | -5.23 | -0.26 | -0.73 | 11.55 | 0.90 | 5.73 | -0.94 |
| CIN | -5.26 | 2.99 | 3.80 | -0.70 | -4.65 | -7.93 | -1.36 |
| PHI | -1.03 | 0.89 | 4.19 | -3.54 | 4.45 | 2.98 | -1.44 |
| CAR | -4.83 | 4.01 | 1.30 | -1.21 | -10.60 | -3.59 | -1.49 |
| HOU | -9.49 | -2.87 | 1.64 | 3.08 | 1.34 | 8.49 | -1.54 |
| PIT | 6.91 | 1.99 | -0.94 | 4.66 | 2.03 | -2.12 | -1.78 |
| BAL | 4.87 | -1.28 | 2.40 | 9.66 | -0.71 | -2.20 | -2.79 |
| NO | 4.73 | 9.04 | 3.13 | 8.96 | -0.55 | 2.17 | -3.37 |
| TEN | -7.67 | 3.67 | 0.78 | -2.76 | -2.97 | -5.15 | -5.08 |
| IND | 3.07 | 2.55 | 2.80 | 1.40 | -0.73 | -2.66 | -5.45 |
| WAS | 3.96 | -3.54 | 3.17 | -6.27 | -3.30 | -8.87 | -5.79 |
| MIA | 4.11 | 2.78 | -0.97 | 1.66 | 0.20 | -5.46 | -6.91 |
| DET | -10.22 | -4.98 | -2.59 | 2.61 | 3.11 | -1.26 | -9.16 |
| ARI | 1.86 | 4.01 | 0.12 | -4.99 | -3.93 | -7.52 | -9.57 |
| BUF | -1.34 | 8.94 | 4.78 | 4.13 | 0.29 | -1.73 | -9.58 |
| DAL | -3.33 | 7.45 | 7.20 | 6.08 | -4.20 | -11.37 | -9.89 |
Distribution
How the 32 teams cluster for 2018.
About this stat
- Stat ID
- def_team_stats_exp_pts_def_tot
- Side
- defensive
- Family
- Team Stats
- Data source
- P + N
- Polarity
- higher is better (or neutral)
- Display grain
- count
- Algorithm eligibility
- Algorithm-eligible: this stat can be picked in the Algorithm Builder.